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Frederick
Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2003 9:15 am
Guest
Intriguing science simmers just below surface
05:49 PM CST on Sunday, December 28, 2003
http://www.dallasnews.com/health/columnists/tsiegfried/stories/122903dnlivtomcol.113cb.html
By TOM SIEGFRIED / The Dallas Morning News

End-of-year science columns are usually pretty predictable. They either recap the top science
stories of the year just past or forecast the science headlines of the year to come.

But some years that system doesn't work so well. The journal Science 's "breakthrough of the year"
for 2003, reported this month, was a retread of the publication's 1998 winner – "dark energy"
causing the universe to expand faster and faster. How boring is that?

So just for the sake of defying ordinary expectations, it might be fun to try something different
this year. Let's forget the biggest breakthroughs and review instead some of the obscure science of
2003.

It's not that nobody notices the obscure science – many scientists do – but only the tips of the
research world's icebergs make themselves visible in the rest of the world's media. Every month
hundreds of scientific papers appear that explore new ideas or phenomena that don't qualify as
newsworthy (even though many are actually much more important than Michael Jackson, Kobe Bryant and
Paris Hilton put together).

For instance:

• Diarrhea may have its bright side. There's no solid evidence, but a paper in March in the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggested the possibility that diarrhea induced by
E. coli bacteria may protect against colon cancer. In developing countries, where such infections
are common, colorectal cancer rates are much lower than in developed nations. And chemicals
produced in the course of such E. coli infections seem to possess cancer-fighting properties, the
scientists noted.

• Molecular fragments called free radicals are known to damage cells and may be responsible for
some of the cellular damage found in people afflicted by Alzheimer's and Parkinson's. Attacking
free radicals directly may help in the fight against such diseases, but another strategy would be
to go after trace metals that make the free radicals more dangerous in the first place. In March, a
paper published in the journal Neuron reported that a chemical reducing iron levels seemed to
protect some brain cells in mice. (Whether the iron-reducing chemical can work in humans without
causing serious side effects remains to be seen, though.)

• Leeches are no longer as medically useful as they were in medieval times, but they still serve
some scientific purposes. In June, physicists in Argentina reported (in Physical Review E) the
construction of an "electronic neuron," an artificial replacement for a real nerve cell. They
tested the device in the leech Hirudo medicinalis, showing that it could transmit signals just like
a real neuron when properly adjusted. Much work remains before showing whether such devices will be
of any help to people who lack a sufficient number of properly adjusted brain cells.

• Speaking of a lack of brain cells, brainlessness might not be so bad when it comes to playing the
stock market. Or at least it doesn't seem to matter much. An analysis of London stock market data
showed that a hypothetical stock-trading population of agents with zero intelligence – that is,
they place their trading orders at random – would reproduce pretty much the same trends as all
those supposedly smart traders who do a lot of research and listen to financial advisers on the
radio. In other words, the flux of bidding and asking prices for stocks seems directed more by the
mere mechanisms of price formation than by any clever strategies chosen by the traders, Santa Fe
Institute scientists concluded in a paper published online in September. Makes you want to stop and
think before buying stocks. Or maybe not.

• Archimedes and Einstein would have voted for this one: When an object in a fluid (say, a
submarine in an ocean) begins to move relativistically fast – that is, close to the speed of light
– a paradox ensues. Einstein's special relativity theory says that such a fast-moving object will
shrink (in the direction of motion), thereby becoming more dense, and therefore sinking. However,
motion is relative, so an observer on the submarine might think the ocean water is moving fast; the
water would therefore shrink and get more dense, so the submarine should float. In Physical Review
D, Brazilian physicist George Matsas combined Archimedes' floating-bodies principle with Einstein's
more comprehensive general theory of relativity to analyze the paradox. The answer is, the
submarine sinks.

• In a series of papers posted on the Internet, German physicist Michael Petri described a
hypothetical "holostar," a possible alternative to the accepted idea that massive stars collapse to
make gravitational traps called black holes. Holostars would not crush everything that falls into
them, like black holes, but would allow lots of internal activity. In fact, objects flying around
inside holostars would appear to move away from each other at accelerating rates, in much the way
that clusters of galaxies seem to be doing in the universe as a whole. The apparent implication is
that the universe itself may merely be a big holostar.

And what's more, if that's true, the apparent acceleration of the universe is not caused by "dark
energy," but merely by the properties of holostar space. In which case the journal Science will
have to find some new discovery to keep winning its breakthrough of the year award.

E-mail tsiegfried@dallasnews.com
Dare
Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2003 11:13 am
Guest
"Frederick" <mmcneill@fuzzysys.com> wrote in message news:3FF03708.D4155BF7@fuzzysys.com...
Quote:
Intriguing science simmers just below surface
05:49 PM CST on Sunday, December 28, 2003
http://www.dallasnews.com/health/columnists/tsiegfried/stories/122903dnlivtomcol.113cb.html
By TOM SIEGFRIED / The Dallas Morning News
.......................
Let's forget the biggest breakthroughs and review instead some
of the obscure science of 2003..........

Archimedes and Einstein would have voted for this one:
When an object in a fluid (say, a submarine in an ocean)
begins to move relativistically fast - that is, close to the speed of light
- a paradox ensues. Einstein's special relativity theory says
that such a fast-moving object will shrink (in the direction of motion),
thereby becoming more dense, and therefore sinking. However,
motion is relative, so an observer on the submarine might think
the ocean water is moving fast; the water would therefore shrink
and get more dense, so the submarine should float. In Physical Review
D, Brazilian physicist George Matsas combined Archimedes'
floating-bodies principle with Einstein's more comprehensive
general theory of relativity to analyze the paradox. The answer is,
the submarine sinks.


That's interesting...seems it might be more complicated than
it appears due to "drag" and so forth. Guess the "bubbleheads"
will have to blow their ballast tanks. Smile
Bet that blown ballast would go through some very strange
dynamics before it reached an equilibrium with the ocean water.
Maybe for relativistic speeds they could rig some kind of
cycling of the variable ballast tanks to rotate the water(ballast)
relative to the direction of motion such that the overall
submarine density remained constant?
Probably not....my physics isn't up to that problem. :-)

Thanks,
Dare
(I wanted to be in the Silent Service when I grew up.)
Immortalist
Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2003 12:35 pm
Guest
"Frederick" <mmcneill@fuzzysys.com> wrote in message
news:3FF03708.D4155BF7@fuzzysys.com...
Quote:
Intriguing science simmers just below surface
05:49 PM CST on Sunday, December 28, 2003

http://www.dallasnews.com/health/columnists/tsiegfried/stories/122903dnlivtomcol.113cb.html
By TOM SIEGFRIED / The Dallas Morning News

End-of-year science columns are usually pretty predictable. They either
recap the top science
stories of the year just past or forecast the science headlines of the
year to come.

But some years that system doesn't work so well. The journal Science 's
"breakthrough of the year"
for 2003, reported this month, was a retread of the publication's 1998
winner - "dark energy"
causing the universe to expand faster and faster. How boring is that?

So just for the sake of defying ordinary expectations, it might be fun to
try something different
this year. Let's forget the biggest breakthroughs and review instead some
of the obscure science of
2003.

It's not that nobody notices the obscure science - many scientists do -
but only the tips of the
research world's icebergs make themselves visible in the rest of the
world's media. Every month
hundreds of scientific papers appear that explore new ideas or phenomena
that don't qualify as
newsworthy (even though many are actually much more important than Michael
Jackson, Kobe Bryant and
Paris Hilton put together).

For instance:

. Diarrhea may have its bright side. There's no solid evidence, but a
paper in March in the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggested the possibility
that diarrhea induced by
E. coli bacteria may protect against colon cancer. In developing
countries, where such infections
are common, colorectal cancer rates are much lower than in developed
nations. And chemicals
produced in the course of such E. coli infections seem to possess
cancer-fighting properties, the
scientists noted.

. Molecular fragments called free radicals are known to damage cells and
may be responsible for
some of the cellular damage found in people afflicted by Alzheimer's and
Parkinson's. Attacking
free radicals directly may help in the fight against such diseases, but
another strategy would be
to go after trace metals that make the free radicals more dangerous in the
first place. In March, a
paper published in the journal Neuron reported that a chemical reducing
iron levels seemed to
protect some brain cells in mice. (Whether the iron-reducing chemical can
work in humans without
causing serious side effects remains to be seen, though.)

. Leeches are no longer as medically useful as they were in medieval
times, but they still serve
some scientific purposes. In June, physicists in Argentina reported (in
Physical Review E) the
construction of an "electronic neuron," an artificial replacement for a
real nerve cell. They
tested the device in the leech Hirudo medicinalis, showing that it could
transmit signals just like
a real neuron when properly adjusted. Much work remains before showing
whether such devices will be
of any help to people who lack a sufficient number of properly adjusted
brain cells.

. Speaking of a lack of brain cells, brainlessness might not be so bad
when it comes to playing the
stock market. Or at least it doesn't seem to matter much. An analysis of
London stock market data
showed that a hypothetical stock-trading population of agents with zero
intelligence - that is,
they place their trading orders at random - would reproduce pretty much
the same trends as all
those supposedly smart traders who do a lot of research and listen to
financial advisers on the
radio. In other words, the flux of bidding and asking prices for stocks
seems directed more by the
mere mechanisms of price formation than by any clever strategies chosen by
the traders, Santa Fe
Institute scientists concluded in a paper published online in September.
Makes you want to stop and
think before buying stocks. Or maybe not.

. Archimedes and Einstein would have voted for this one: When an object in
a fluid (say, a
submarine in an ocean) begins to move relativistically fast - that is,
close to the speed of light
- a paradox ensues. Einstein's special relativity theory says that such a
fast-moving object will
shrink (in the direction of motion), thereby becoming more dense, and
therefore sinking. However,
motion is relative, so an observer on the submarine might think the ocean
water is moving fast; the
water would therefore shrink and get more dense, so the submarine should
float. In Physical Review
D, Brazilian physicist George Matsas combined Archimedes' floating-bodies
principle with Einstein's
more comprehensive general theory of relativity to analyze the paradox.
The answer is, the
submarine sinks.

. In a series of papers posted on the Internet, German physicist Michael
Petri described a
hypothetical "holostar," a possible alternative to the accepted idea that
massive stars collapse to
make gravitational traps called black holes. Holostars would not crush
everything that falls into
them, like black holes, but would allow lots of internal activity. In
fact, objects flying around
inside holostars would appear to move away from each other at accelerating
rates, in much the way
that clusters of galaxies seem to be doing in the universe as a whole. The
apparent implication is
that the universe itself may merely be a big holostar.

And what's more, if that's true, the apparent acceleration of the universe
is not caused by "dark
energy," but merely by the properties of holostar space. In which case the
journal Science will
have to find some new discovery to keep winning its breakthrough of the
year award.

E-mail tsiegfried@dallasnews.com

We could just turn scientists into Gladiators and populate the arena with
'spectator sports enthusiasts' and feed em to the lions?
ta
Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2003 6:06 pm
Guest
"Frederick" <mmcneill@fuzzysys.com> wrote in message
news:3FF03708.D4155BF7@fuzzysys.com...
Quote:
Intriguing science simmers just below surface
05:49 PM CST on Sunday, December 28, 2003

http://www.dallasnews.com/health/columnists/tsiegfried/stories/122903dnlivtomcol.113cb.html
By TOM SIEGFRIED / The Dallas Morning News
snip


Quote:
. Speaking of a lack of brain cells, brainlessness might not be so bad
when it comes to playing the
stock market. Or at least it doesn't seem to matter much. An analysis of
London stock market data
showed that a hypothetical stock-trading population of agents with zero
intelligence - that is,
they place their trading orders at random - would reproduce pretty much
the same trends as all
those supposedly smart traders who do a lot of research and listen to
financial advisers on the
radio. In other words, the flux of bidding and asking prices for stocks
seems directed more by the
mere mechanisms of price formation than by any clever strategies chosen by
the traders, Santa Fe
Institute scientists concluded in a paper published online in September.
Makes you want to stop and
think before buying stocks. Or maybe not.

Stock market traders show signs of zero intelligence
Economic fluctuations appear to result from random decisions.
24 September 2003
PHILIP BALL

Market traders are not mindless. But if they were we might not notice the
difference, claim J. Doyne Farmer, of the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico,
and co-workers.

Their theoretical model assumes that traders place orders at random rather
than on the basis of shrewd calculation and observation of economic trends.
It reproduces some of the statistical features of financial markets1.
Traders, it suggests, are rather like ants swarming chaotically through the
guts of a great clock, barely affecting its ability to tick.

The findings further undermine one of the most cherished notions of economic
theory. Since the nineteenth century, economists have imagined traders as
omniscient and coldly logical beings, who aim always to maximize their
profits based on complete knowledge about what the entire market is doing.

Modern economists recognize that people aren't fully informed or rational.
Much recent theory has been devoted to understanding how we cope with
imperfect information, and how our behaviour is interdependent and sometimes
irrational. Irrationality leads to the herding that can drive market
crashes.

All the same, by dispensing with even a restricted form of rationality, the
new model is daring. Farmer and colleagues don't imply that anyone really
does make decisions by flipping a coin, simply that economic decision-making
is so varied and complex that it is hard to distinguish it from random
choices.

"The concept of the full-information rational maximizer is one which
economics finds very hard to abandon," said economist Paul Ormerod of
Volterra Consulting, UK, at this month's conference of the Economic Society
of Australia, held in Canberra. "But much of the world is much closer to the
random paradigm."

Random work

The model posits two kinds of dealers. Impatient traders submit requests to
buy or sell shares immediately at the best available price; these are called
market orders. Patient traders specify a worst allowable price; their
exchanges are called limit orders. If this price can't be met immediately,
limit orders are stored in a queue.

The researchers assume that both types of agent place and cancel orders at
random. Each order alters the best prices, affecting the subsequent queuing
of limit orders. The statistical properties of prices generated closely
match the values seen on the London Stock Exchange for 1998-2000.

This suggests that share prices are set by limit orders altering supply and
demand - not by the reasoning behind those orders. Ormerod thinks that this
apparent randomness comes from the imperfect ability of market agents to
process the complex and often incomplete information at their disposal. The
best strategy is virtually impossible to find, so everyone reaches different
conclusions.

References
Farmer, J. D., Patelli, P. & Zovko, I. I. The predictive power of zero
intelligence in financial markets. Preprint,
http://xxx.arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0309233, (2003). |Article|

http://www.nature.com/nsu/030922/030922-6.html

<snip>
 
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