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Science Forum Index » Geology - Meteorology Forum » February 2008 30-Day Forecast
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 Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2008 3:34 pm |
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FEBRUARY 2008 30-DAY OUTLOOK
522 PM EDT Thu. January 31, 2008
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
Sea surface temperatures are well below normal in the eastern
Equatorial Pacific indicating a strong La Nina. Sea surface
temperatures are greater than 1 C below normal from 165 E to the South
American coast. In addition, the low-level easterly winds are stronger
than normal over the central tropical Pacific with convection
suppressed in the central Equatorial Pacific. Convection is enhanced
over the western Pacific.
NAO is currently in a positive phase and is forecast remain generally
positive through the mid-month period. The PNA is negative and is
forecast to trend neutral to slightly negative during the same period.
Most models indicate near normal to above normal temperatures across
the nation with the exception with the CFS which has coolness across
the lakes, the CON2 which has coolness in the Southwest and the CCA
which has coolness across the Northwest into the northern Plains.
Consensus of the models indicate warm across much of the nation. The
CCA indicates coolness across the Northwest and the Plains. Models are
in fairly good agreement with the 500-HPA circulation across North
America. The flow will be amplified with a ridge in the eastern North
Pacific; a trough will be over western North America with another
ridge off the East coast. The pattern will slowly flatten leading to a
generally zonal flow in the East.
Above normal temperatures are expected across much of the nation
mainly south of 42 latitude. The probability of above normal
temperatures in this region is 58 percent. The only region that is
forecast to experience below normal temperatures will be the northern
Rockies and the northern Plains. The probability of below normal
temperatures occurring across this area is 56 percent. The remainder
of the nation is expected to average near normal with no significant
deviation from normal climatology.
Above normal precipitation is expected across the Northwest. The
probability of above normal precipitation in this area is 58 percent.
Below normal precipitation is expected across much of the nation,
across the central and southern Rockies, the central and southern
Plains eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Southeast and
the mid-Atlantic. The probability of above normal precipitation in
this region is 56 percent. The remainder of the nation is expected to
be near normal with no significant deviation from climatology.
Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx |
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