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Science Forum Index » Geology - Earthquakes Forum » so much for tongue-in-cheek
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| Skywise |
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 1:08 am |
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| Petra |
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:19 pm |
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Guest
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On Jan 11, 9:08 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Quote: Sheesh...I go away for a day and look what happens!!!
Brian
--http://www.skywise711.com- Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ:http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions":http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?
Right On!
Hey look, everyone's talking about earthquake insurance, earthquake
safety, earthquake prediction..... WHOA, are we gonna reclaim this
board or what?????
Cheers,
Petra |
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| Weatherlawyer |
Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2008 5:09 am |
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On Jan 13, 1:23 pm, "Mike Williams" <miklw...@pacbell.net> wrote:
Quote:
It'd be nice to see some seismology being discussed again . . .
You go first. |
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| Petra |
Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2008 8:35 am |
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On Jan 13, 7:09 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On Jan 13, 1:23 pm, "Mike Williams" <miklw...@pacbell.net> wrote:
It'd be nice to see some seismology being discussed again . . .
You go first.
Here's some food for thought......
Since the earthquake in Martinique events in Alaska, The Queen
Charlotte Islands and a greater than normal M 6.0+ event took place
off shore Oregon..... is this a new seismicity pattern? And if so,
what might be anticipated to happen in the next 30 days in the western
hemisphere?
Petra |
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| Mike Williams |
Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2008 9:23 am |
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"Petra" <petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:9cfbaf4c-3377-4fb1-97ad-adb6eda2fb64@i3g2000hsf.googlegroups.com...
On Jan 11, 9:08 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
<<snip>>
Right On!
Quote: Hey look, everyone's talking about earthquake insurance, earthquake
safety, earthquake prediction..... WHOA, are we gonna reclaim this
board or what?????
Cheers,
Petra
It'd be nice to see some seismology being discussed again . . .
Mike Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA USA |
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| Don |
Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2008 4:45 pm |
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On Jan 13, 1:56 pm, "Mike Williams" <miklw...@pacbell.net> wrote:
Quote: "Petra" <petras...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:dddd4953-87e2-4283-9f12-eda2a8168b2f@x69g2000hsx.googlegroups.com...
On Jan 13, 7:09 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Jan 13, 1:23 pm, "Mike Williams" <miklw...@pacbell.net> wrote:
It'd be nice to see some seismology being discussed again . . .
You go first.
Here's some food for thought......
Since the earthquake in Martinique events in Alaska, The Queen
Charlotte Islands and a greater than normal M 6.0+ event took place
off shore Oregon..... is this a new seismicity pattern? And if so,
what might be anticipated to happen in the next 30 days in the western
hemisphere?
Petra
Can you propose a mechanism by which an earthquake in the Eastern Caribbean
would have a causal connection with quakes in Alaska and the Pacific
Northwest?
Are you able to consider that there might be no connection of any sort?
Mike Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA USA
Hi Mike. Petra and I have taken a lot of heat over the years in
regards to remote triggering. Ten years ago there wasn't any
mainstream scientist willing to go public about remote triggering of a
quake by another quake because of the negative comments from their
colleagues. However that seems to be changing.
The problem with far field aftershocks, remote triggering, or whatever
you want to call it is that you don't know where they are going to
occur.
When the Denali quake occurred the Wasatch fault in Utah lit up.
Small quakes were occurring along the whole length of the fault.
At present time most scientists are looking at faults near the
epicenters of large quakes, but there are a few who are looking
halfway around the World.
Remote triggering is in its infancy and in all probability it will be
years before it is truly understood if ever. Just because you can't
see a connection doesn't mean there isn't one. It means that you
aren't looking for one. Don
http://bssa.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/reprint/96/1/80.pdf
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1134/is_2_110/ai_71317742
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080103124649.htm
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2001/05/21/MN238485.DTL&type=news
http://www.quakes.uq.edu.au/ACES_WS1_proc/PDF/2.3_1.pdf
http://arjournals.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.earth.33.092203.122505
http://www.bgu.ac.il/geol/classes/hazard/Front/lec05.pdf |
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| Mike Williams |
Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2008 5:56 pm |
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Guest
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"Petra" <petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:dddd4953-87e2-4283-9f12-eda2a8168b2f@x69g2000hsx.googlegroups.com...
On Jan 13, 7:09 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On Jan 13, 1:23 pm, "Mike Williams" <miklw...@pacbell.net> wrote:
It'd be nice to see some seismology being discussed again . . .
You go first.
Here's some food for thought......
Since the earthquake in Martinique events in Alaska, The Queen
Charlotte Islands and a greater than normal M 6.0+ event took place
off shore Oregon..... is this a new seismicity pattern? And if so,
what might be anticipated to happen in the next 30 days in the western
hemisphere?
Petra
Can you propose a mechanism by which an earthquake in the Eastern Caribbean
would have a causal connection with quakes in Alaska and the Pacific
Northwest?
Are you able to consider that there might be no connection of any sort?
Mike Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA USA |
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| Back to top |
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| Petra |
Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2008 6:35 pm |
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On Jan 13, 6:45 pm, Don <donl...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
Quote: On Jan 13, 1:56 pm, "Mike Williams" <miklw...@pacbell.net> wrote:
"Petra" <petras...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:dddd4953-87e2-4283-9f12-eda2a8168b2f@x69g2000hsx.googlegroups.com...
On Jan 13, 7:09 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Jan 13, 1:23 pm, "Mike Williams" <miklw...@pacbell.net> wrote:
> It'd be nice to see some seismology being discussed again . . .
You go first.
Here's some food for thought......
Since the earthquake in Martinique events in Alaska, The Queen
Charlotte Islands and a greater than normal M 6.0+ event took place
off shore Oregon..... is this a new seismicity pattern? And if so,
what might be anticipated to happen in the next 30 days in the western
hemisphere?
Petra
Can you propose a mechanism by which an earthquake in the Eastern Caribbean
would have a causal connection with quakes in Alaska and the Pacific
Northwest?
Are you able to consider that there might be no connection of any sort?
Mike Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA USA
Hi Mike. Petra and I have taken a lot of heat over the years in
regards to remote triggering. Ten years ago there wasn't any
mainstream scientist willing to go public about remote triggering of a
quake by another quake because of the negative comments from their
colleagues. However that seems to be changing.
The problem with far field aftershocks, remote triggering, or whatever
you want to call it is that you don't know where they are going to
occur.
When the Denali quake occurred the Wasatch fault in Utah lit up.
Small quakes were occurring along the whole length of the fault.
At present time most scientists are looking at faults near the
epicenters of large quakes, but there are a few who are looking
halfway around the World.
Remote triggering is in its infancy and in all probability it will be
years before it is truly understood if ever. Just because you can't
see a connection doesn't mean there isn't one. It means that you
aren't looking for one. Don
http://bssa.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/reprint/96/1/80.pdf
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1134/is_2_110/ai_71317742
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080103124649.htm
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2001/05/21/MN238485....
http://www.quakes.uq.edu.au/ACES_WS1_proc/PDF/2.3_1.pdf
http://arjournals.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.earth.33....
http://www.bgu.ac.il/geol/classes/hazard/Front/lec05.pdf- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Thanks Don,
Now that I'm finished with musical composition I should add a note
here that one of the primary reasons I broke random chance is as a
direct result of issuing predictions based upon far field triggering,
which included a prediction in November for Israel. To me there was no
doubt it was going to occur and fortunately in the time frame and
correct radius I used.
Given it's success, I did send the data for prediction formulation to
the seismologists in Israel so they could have a look see, especially
in light of their expectation of a major event in their region. I
hope it proves useful.
While some theories are difficult to accept it does help if something
is proven successful to demonstate it's usefulness and moreso in real
time.
Petra |
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| Mike Williams |
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 9:01 am |
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Guest
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"Petra" <petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:d4ba0236-d054-4a86-824e-f5bf7479e89f@s12g2000prg.googlegroups.com...
On Jan 13, 6:45 pm, Don <donl...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
Quote: On Jan 13, 1:56 pm, "Mike Williams" <miklw...@pacbell.net> wrote:
"Petra" <petras...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:dddd4953-87e2-4283-9f12-eda2a8168b2f@x69g2000hsx.googlegroups.com...
On Jan 13, 7:09 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Jan 13, 1:23 pm, "Mike Williams" <miklw...@pacbell.net> wrote:
It'd be nice to see some seismology being discussed again . . .
You go first.
Here's some food for thought......
Since the earthquake in Martinique events in Alaska, The Queen
Charlotte Islands and a greater than normal M 6.0+ event took place
off shore Oregon..... is this a new seismicity pattern? And if so,
what might be anticipated to happen in the next 30 days in the western
hemisphere?
Petra
Can you propose a mechanism by which an earthquake in the Eastern
Caribbean
would have a causal connection with quakes in Alaska and the Pacific
Northwest?
Are you able to consider that there might be no connection of any sort?
Mike Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA USA
Hi Mike. Petra and I have taken a lot of heat over the years in
regards to remote triggering. Ten years ago there wasn't any
mainstream scientist willing to go public about remote triggering of a
quake by another quake because of the negative comments from their
colleagues. However that seems to be changing.
The problem with far field aftershocks, remote triggering, or whatever
you want to call it is that you don't know where they are going to
occur.
When the Denali quake occurred the Wasatch fault in Utah lit up.
Small quakes were occurring along the whole length of the fault.
At present time most scientists are looking at faults near the
epicenters of large quakes, but there are a few who are looking
halfway around the World.
Remote triggering is in its infancy and in all probability it will be
years before it is truly understood if ever. Just because you can't
see a connection doesn't mean there isn't one. It means that you
aren't looking for one. Don
http://bssa.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/reprint/96/1/80.pdf
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1134/is_2_110/ai_71317742
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080103124649.htm
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2001/05/21/MN238485....
http://www.quakes.uq.edu.au/ACES_WS1_proc/PDF/2.3_1.pdf
http://arjournals.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.earth.33....
http://www.bgu.ac.il/geol/classes/hazard/Front/lec05.pdf- Hide quoted
text -
- Show quoted text -
Thanks Don,
Now that I'm finished with musical composition I should add a note
here that one of the primary reasons I broke random chance is as a
direct result of issuing predictions based upon far field triggering,
which included a prediction in November for Israel. To me there was no
doubt it was going to occur and fortunately in the time frame and
correct radius I used.
Quote: Given it's success, I did send the data for prediction formulation to
the seismologists in Israel so they could have a look see, especially
in light of their expectation of a major event in their region. I
hope it proves useful.
While some theories are difficult to accept it does help if something
is proven successful to demonstate it's usefulness and moreso in real
time.
Petra
First, my Outlook News Reader has stopped inserting brackets in my responses
(yes - I know where the settings are, and have double-checked them, cleared
and re-checked the boxes, etc.), so I found it easier to insert double
brackets into Petra's response (fewer lines), and leave the earlier post
single-bracketed.
Second, Don's post is going to take a little more time than I have available
this morning, so I will try to respond later.
Next - your claim that you had "no doubt" your Israel prediction was going
to be correct flies directly in the face of all that is known about
far-field triggering. That theory is notoriously lacking in predictive power
and, in my opinion, potential. And you are notorious for never having any
doubt.
In recent threads you have made some outrageous claims to the effect that
you are the world's best earthquake predictor, and similar unsupportable
claims, including the one above where you strongly imply that your methods
have been "proven successful." Yet, on your own website, as recently as Dec.
23rd of last year, you stated that the most recent analysis of your method
showed results "slightly above random chance." With no numerical mention of
the statistical significance of that result. When are you going to come down
off your magic carpet ride, Petra?
Mike Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA USA |
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| Mike Williams |
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 8:11 pm |
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Guest
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"Don" <donleck@sbcglobal.net> wrote in message
news:249984fd-b52a-4b11-a451-dc74ce1e6525@l32g2000hse.googlegroups.com...
Quote: On Jan 13, 1:56 pm, "Mike Williams" <miklw...@pacbell.net> wrote:
"Petra" <petras...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:dddd4953-87e2-4283-9f12-eda2a8168b2f@x69g2000hsx.googlegroups.com...
On Jan 13, 7:09 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Jan 13, 1:23 pm, "Mike Williams" <miklw...@pacbell.net> wrote:
It'd be nice to see some seismology being discussed again . . .
You go first.
Here's some food for thought......
Since the earthquake in Martinique events in Alaska, The Queen
Charlotte Islands and a greater than normal M 6.0+ event took place
off shore Oregon..... is this a new seismicity pattern? And if so,
what might be anticipated to happen in the next 30 days in the western
hemisphere?
Petra
Can you propose a mechanism by which an earthquake in the Eastern
Caribbean
would have a causal connection with quakes in Alaska and the Pacific
Northwest?
Are you able to consider that there might be no connection of any sort?
Mike Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA USA
Hi Mike. Petra and I have taken a lot of heat over the years in
regards to remote triggering. Ten years ago there wasn't any
mainstream scientist willing to go public about remote triggering of a
quake by another quake because of the negative comments from their
colleagues. However that seems to be changing.
The problem with far field aftershocks, remote triggering, or whatever
you want to call it is that you don't know where they are going to
occur.
When the Denali quake occurred the Wasatch fault in Utah lit up.
Small quakes were occurring along the whole length of the fault.
At present time most scientists are looking at faults near the
epicenters of large quakes, but there are a few who are looking
halfway around the World.
Remote triggering is in its infancy and in all probability it will be
years before it is truly understood if ever. Just because you can't
see a connection doesn't mean there isn't one. It means that you
aren't looking for one. Don
http://bssa.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/reprint/96/1/80.pdf
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1134/is_2_110/ai_71317742
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080103124649.htm
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2001/05/21/MN238485.DTL&type=news
http://www.quakes.uq.edu.au/ACES_WS1_proc/PDF/2.3_1.pdf
http://arjournals.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.earth.33.092203.122505
http://www.bgu.ac.il/geol/classes/hazard/Front/lec05.pdf
Hullo, Don -
Looks like my brackets unaccountably returned. You make an unwarranted
assumption - I was not blind to a possible connection. I queried Petra
because she was so coy, and I wanted to get the basis of her own query out
in the open. So I could challenge it.
You state that "Ten years ago there wasn't any
mainstream scientist willing to go public about remote triggering of a
quake by another quake because of the negative comments from their
colleagues." Just for the record, neither you nor Petra suggested any such
distant triggering prior to "mainstream scientist['s]" suggesting it.
IIRC it was Hector Mine (1999), or possibly even Landers (1992) that changed
seismologists' thinking in regard to the distance at which dynamic stress
might trigger earthquakes. Previously, such triggering was thought to only
extend to only a few fault lengths away from the originating earthquake, and
was thought (most likely correctly) to result from both static and dynamic
stress changes. Directivity of fault rupture seems important in both Landers
and Hector Mine (Landers ruptured to the north, and Hector Mine to the
south).
I don't think anyone can seriously consider static stress changes as being a
factor at the distances involved in the recent discussion of possible remote
triggering, and so, unless you have an alternative hypothesis, that leaves
only dynamic stress change as a causative factor.
Seismologists now realize that rather small dynamic stress changes can
trigger remote quakes, however the distances at which such triggering might
occur are considerably less than Petra suggested with her suggestion of a
connection between the Martinique quake and the Pacific Northwest. Denali,
at M7.9, was MUCH larger than the Martinique quake (M7.3), and the distance
between Denali and Utah is much less than between Martinique and the PNW. I
would guess that the kilopascals involved in the latter are in the range of
normal tidal stresses, which have already been shown to be statistically
insignificant in anything other than microquakes. In addition, there is no
consensus that Utah's Wasatch quakes were related to Denali. In any event,
the Utah quakes occurred in hydrothermal areas, which does suggest a
plausible mechanism - one unrelated to possible quakes in the PNW,
predominantly subduction zone quakes. In addition, the remote triggering
observed subsequent to Hector Mine and Landers involved strike-slip
faulting, not the subduction zone faulting associated with the PNW.
Finally - such remote triggering is only hypothesized (by professionals
anyway) to occur within a matter of days or a week of the originating
earthquake. Martinique occurred last November.We're still waiting . . .
Michael Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA USA |
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