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 Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 9:59 am |
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OME STOCHASTIC MODELS FOR OPEN MAN POWER SYSTEM
A Stochastic process is one which develops in time according to
probabilistic laws. Such process occur in the Physical, biological and
social sciences.
Human societies are often stratified into classes on the basis of such
things they are income, occupation, social status or place of
residence. Members of societies move from one class to another in what
often seems to be a haphazard manner. For example, sons do not always
follow in their fathers footsteps and there is a transition from
generation to generation.
Although mathematical model that describe social phenomenon may be
deterministic or stochastic, there is always an element of uncertainty
because of the unpredictable character of human behaviour. Thus
stochastic models are more relevant because of the inherent uncertainty
brought about by the freedom of choice available to the individuals in
the society. The theory of stochastic processes has been found to be
very useful to study various social phenomena including economics,
education and manpower planning.
Models
A variety of stochastic models can be used to study manpower systems.
These models are classified generally based on three characteristics.
The first method of classification is according to whether the model is
closed or open. In a closed system, no persons leaves the system and no
persons is admitted into the system. In such systems interest is on the
changing internal structure. An open system has both gains and losses.
In such a system apart from internal changes the interest is on the
changes in the input, output and total size of the system.
A second method of classification depends on whether time is treated as
discrete or continuous. In some systems, changes of state can only take
place at fixed intervals of time. For example, University or college
course enrollments change annually or half-yearly. In such systems the
time is discrete. In other systems changes can take place at any time.
For example, labour mobility or changes of job. For such models time is
continuous.
The third method of classification depends on whether the model is
based on the Markov property or not. If it is possible to deduce the
future development of the system from the knowledge of this present
state irrespective of the past history, then the system can be
described by a Markovian model. Although the Markovian model is
somewhat restrictive, it can be applied to many manpower systems by
redefining its states.
In manpower planning, the stochastic model, that is assumed to govern
the system can fall into any of the categories classified as above.
Irrespective of the category, the states of the system denote the
grades or other relevant classifications of the employees in an
organizations.
The internal transitions in an organizations will corresponds to
promotions, demotions and transfers.
The interesting aspects of a manpower system are the following
I. The Stocks of employees in the various grades.
II. The stochastic processes behaviour of the stock numbers and their
means, variances and covariances
III. The long run or limiting structure of the grade sizes.
IV. The control of the grade sizes by manipulating the flows.
e-mail:murugesanpkt@yahoo.co.in |
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