| |
 |
|
|
Science Forum Index » Statistics - Education Forum » Catalog-sales forecasting
Page 1 of 1
|
| Author |
Message |
| Guest |
 Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2006 2:13 pm |
|
|
|
|
Hi,
Im part of a new forecasting department in a small company from
Argentina ( so english is my 2nd language, I apologize for any
mistakes) that sells underwear (like Victoria Secret) thru catalogs
and reps, like Avon does. We have been improving our know-how and
forecasting methods in the past few months and we are trying to step up
a notch now.
We have a new catalog each month, with this characteristics:
65% of our items sold were sold in the past catalog.
23% of our items were sold sometime in the history of our company, but
havent sold in the last catalog.
12% of our items are new products.
Also, about 20% of the items of the past catalog are not in the new
one.
We have a lot of items on discount on each catalog, which change from
month to month. Sales from discounted items are about 40% of our sales
(20% of our items)
We have lots of different product models, but there are basically 7
types of different panties and 7 types of different bras, which could
compete with each other. IE, model A, type 2 would compete with model
B, type 2.
Im interested in finding out if there are some white papers, websites,
or books regarding the following subjects:
* Any Cause-Effect studies on the ad size (picture sizes) and
forecasted sales or how to dissafect past data from different ad sizes.
* How to consider cannibalization within product models with same type
? IE, Model A, type 2 has sales variations from catalog to catalog, how
do I measure what part of that variation is noise and which variation
was caused by different models with same type entering or leaving the
catalog.
* We use a bottom-up approach when forecasting, when we add up all the
products, we get a total of units greater than we expect. Later, we use
a factor for all the items to get a smaller estimate and a total that
is more realistic. We are not enterily happy with this approach and I
would like to get some pointers about this too.
Any help or guidance on any of this topics will be appreciated,
Thanks in advance,
Pablo Fernandez
juancuca (at) gmail (dot) com |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
| |
|
Page 1 of 1
All times are GMT - 5 Hours
The time now is Wed Dec 03, 2008 9:00 pm
|
|