 |
|
| Science Forum Index » Economy Forum » Looks like a Supply-and-Demand allocation Failure to... |
|
Page 1 of 1 |
|
| Author |
Message |
| Doug Bashford... |
 Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 1:43 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
Looks like a Supply-and-Demand Failure to me.
What do you think?
Many people put up with the well known evils
of Capitalism because it's so damned good at
allocating goods. I'm one of them.
But when a multi-billion dollar, multi-national industry
fails to deliver a highly demanded good to me for over
a year, I call that failure. But the reason I
write this here in sci.econ, is that after giving
it some thought, I believe this problem, seemingly
due to new business practices: "zero inventory," is
systemic. ...that is, a slight unpredicted shortage
triggers a consumer run on that product, leading
to a long term (at least a year) shortage. By
"shortage," I mean the average guy, -once the main
consumer of that good- can't get any.
In other words, under optimum production output
and near zero inventory, a temporary shortage
will ripple into the future indefinately.
It's seemingly happening right now,
this is not theory.
And how would that shortage ever be filled?
Would smart money build new factories to fill
a temporary demand blip caused over a year ago
when old output seemed about optimum before?
That is not a rhetorical question. Thoughts?
I'm that average guy, I'm angry, and I'm in no mood
to be entertained by abstractions claiming this is
not a Supply-and-Demand Failure...abstractions
designed to explain this away and protect Doctrine.
But I know I may be missing something.
I'm describing the current ammunition shortage
which was triggered by Obama's election a year ago.
(...And by a new Media/information bias or failure.)
It also triggered a run on weapons causing certain
classes of rifles (like AR) to double in price,
but that has been resolved, prices are normal again.
Average Guy can't get .380 ACP ammo, a popular
small pistol cartridge. Very difficult to find
are .40 and .45 Auto pistol cartridges, but Internet
chatter suggests no longer impossible. (These have all
been described as "middle class men's bullets.")
But even ubiquitous .22 and 9mm ammo is difficult
to find.
Is anybody still claiming markets are rational?
A little Internet searching tells me the manufacturers
are running full blast, 24/7. (I have no idea if
that means output is up.)
When I ask for .380 ammo at a gun shop, I'm laughed
at. I talked to the sporting goods clerk at Wal-mart,
he said they get them restocked every two weeks and
they last about two hours on the shelf, despite
a four-box/person limit. The Internet is sold out.
Bottom line: I can't get .380 ammo. Period.
Everybody says that. .380 is the worst.
Others are saying similar things about other
kinds of ammo.
"According to the National Rifle Association
in the U.S., Americans buy about seven billion
rounds of ammunition annually. But by September
this year, they had purchased nine billion rounds."
Internet pricing says a box of 50 .380 rounds
goes for $5 - $50, with $18 about typical. Sample:
- Winchester 95 Gr. FMJ $17.99
- Wolf [Russian] Gold Pistol Ammo 94 Grain HP $18.99
- Remington® UMC 95 Gr. $18.99
...over six brands from www.cabelas.com - all sold out.
I think what we have is also a shortage triggering
a run. That is: the shortage itself is causing
demand. Then when Average Guy needs ammo to go
shooting and can't find any, he is added to the
ranks scouring the world for ammo, and not wanting
to go thru THAT hassle again buys double to avoid
it again. I know I will. And every gun-show entepreneur
is buying everything they can get too, but I don't
know any of them. (...Is it going black market?)
Looks like a Supply-and-Demand allocation failure to me.
Is it, or isn't it? If not a failure, what is this?
Could this be a potential problem systemic to many
other manufactured goods, or is this unique to ammo?
If systemic, couldn't a similar shortage of several
items trigger a general run and a shortage avalanche
and panic? ...with similar poor market mechanisms
for repair?
I told the gun shop owner that he probably understands
a bank run better than any professor.
He didn't laugh. I think he slightly winced.
Google: 380 ammunition "for sale"
Try and actually buy some.
Thoughts?
- If you scratch a cynic,
- you'll find a defeated idealist. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
| Rod Speed... |
| Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 3:04 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
Doug Bashford wrote:
[quote]Looks like a Supply-and-Demand Failure to me.
What do you think?
Many people put up with the well known evils
of Capitalism because it's so damned good at
allocating goods. I'm one of them.
[/quote]
And because all the alteratives that we have tried do that worse.
[quote]But when a multi-billion dollar, multi-national
industry fails to deliver a highly demanded
good to me for over a year, I call that failure.
[/quote]
Sure, but only a fool would claim that capitalism is perfect.
Everything has its real downsides. Democracy in spades.
[quote]But the reason I write this here in sci.econ, is that after
giving it some thought, I believe this problem, seemingly
due to new business practices: "zero inventory," is
systemic. ...that is, a slight unpredicted shortage
triggers a consumer run on that product, leading
to a long term (at least a year) shortage.
[/quote]
That doesnt happen very often at all.
[quote]By "shortage," I mean the average guy, -once
the main consumer of that good- can't get any.
[/quote]
Thats not very surprising when it isnt clear how long
the hiked demand will last for and no one is stupid
enough to say double their plant production capacity
when that isnt clear.
[quote]In other words, under optimum production output
and near zero inventory, a temporary shortage
will ripple into the future indefinately.
It's seemingly happening right now, this is not theory.
[/quote]
Sure, but no one but a fool would ever claim that some
stuff cant ever get into that situation, and it doesnt
have a damned thing to do with zero inventory either.
[quote]And how would that shortage ever be filled?
Would smart money build new factories to fill
a temporary demand blip caused over a year ago
when old output seemed about optimum before?
[/quote]
Depends on whether it needs its own factory or whether
just a production run in an existing factory is all thats needed.
[quote]That is not a rhetorical question. Thoughts?
I'm that average guy, I'm angry, and I'm in no mood
to be entertained by abstractions claiming this is
not a Supply-and-Demand Failure...abstractions
designed to explain this away and protect Doctrine.
But I know I may be missing something.
[/quote]
Corse you are. No one but a fool has ever claimed
that you dont get some glitches with capitalism.
We have just seen the completely implosion of the
entire world financial system, AGAIN, for christ sake.
[quote]I'm describing the current ammunition shortage
which was triggered by Obama's election a year ago.
(...And by a new Media/information bias or failure.)
It also triggered a run on weapons causing certain
classes of rifles (like AR) to double in price, but
that has been resolved, prices are normal again.
Average Guy can't get .380 ACP ammo, a popular
small pistol cartridge. Very difficult to find are .40
and .45 Auto pistol cartridges, but Internet
chatter suggests no longer impossible. (These have
all been described as "middle class men's bullets.")
But even ubiquitous .22 and 9mm ammo is difficult to find.
Is anybody still claiming markets are rational?
[/quote]
Only fools ever claimed they were in the sense
that we dont see major glitches at times.
[quote]A little Internet searching tells me the
manufacturers are running full blast, 24/7.
(I have no idea if that means output is up.)
[/quote]
Then presumably the demand went thru the roof and
the manufacturers arent stupid enough to spend
substantial money on new production capacity when
the demand may well not be that high for too long etc.
Its just a tad unlikely that whoever is buying it all is blowing
it away very enthusiastically indeed with it so hard to get.
[quote]When I ask for .380 ammo at a gun shop, I'm laughed
at. I talked to the sporting goods clerk at Wal-mart,
he said they get them restocked every two weeks and
they last about two hours on the shelf, despite
a four-box/person limit. The Internet is sold out.
Bottom line: I can't get .380 ammo. Period.
Everybody says that. .380 is the worst.
Others are saying similar things about other
kinds of ammo.
"According to the National Rifle Association
in the U.S., Americans buy about seven billion
rounds of ammunition annually. But by September
this year, they had purchased nine billion rounds."
Internet pricing says a box of 50 .380 rounds
goes for $5 - $50, with $18 about typical. Sample:
- Winchester 95 Gr. FMJ $17.99
- Wolf [Russian] Gold Pistol Ammo 94 Grain HP $18.99
- Remington® UMC 95 Gr. $18.99
...over six brands from www.cabelas.com - all sold out.
I think what we have is also a shortage triggering a
run. That is: the shortage itself is causing demand.
[/quote]
Very likely. Nothing unusual about that.
[quote]Then when Average Guy needs ammo to go
shooting and can't find any, he is added to the
ranks scouring the world for ammo, and not wanting
to go thru THAT hassle again buys double to avoid
it again. I know I will. And every gun-show entepreneur
is buying everything they can get too, but I don't
know any of them. (...Is it going black market?)
Looks like a Supply-and-Demand allocation failure to me.
Is it, or isn't it?
[/quote]
Corse it is and only a fool would claim that doesnt ever happen.
[quote]If not a failure, what is this? Could this be a potential
problem systemic to many other manufactured goods,
[/quote]
Nope. The demand for most of those doesnt vary
that much off what is a pretty low base normally.
[quote]or is this unique to ammo?
[/quote]
Corse not. Its also seen with other stuff thats used
in natural disasters and preparation for them etc.
[quote]If systemic, couldn't a similar shortage of several items
trigger a general run and a shortage avalanche and panic?
[/quote]
Nope. There isnt even a panic with that one, just plenty choosing
to buy what is available even if they dont really need it.
[quote]...with similar poor market mechanisms for repair?
[/quote]
Yes, when there is considerable doubt about how long the unusual demand will last for.
[quote]I told the gun shop owner that he probably
understands a bank run better than any professor.
He didn't laugh. I think he slightly winced.
[/quote]
Bank runs are easier to avoid.
[quote]Google: 380 ammunition "for sale"
Try and actually buy some.
Thoughts?
- If you scratch a cynic,
- you'll find a defeated idealist.
[/quote]
Nope. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
| Doug Bashford... |
| Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 2:57 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
On 2 Nov, Rod Speed said about:
Re: Looks like a Supply-and-Demand allocation Failure to me
[quote]Doug Bashford wrote:
Looks like a Supply-and-Demand Failure to me.
What do you think?
Many people put up with the well known evils
of Capitalism because it's so damned good at
allocating goods. I'm one of them.
And because all the alteratives that we have tried do that worse.
But when a multi-billion dollar, multi-national
industry fails to deliver a highly demanded
good to me for over a year, I call that failure.
Sure, but only a fool would claim that capitalism is perfect.
[/quote]
....so it's like a car that just needs washing perhaps?
[quote]
Everything has its real downsides. Democracy in spades.
But the reason I write this here in sci.econ, is that after
giving it some thought, I believe this problem, seemingly
due to new business practices: "zero inventory," is
systemic. ...that is, a slight unpredicted shortage
triggers a consumer run on that product, leading
to a long term (at least a year) shortage.
That doesnt happen very often at all.
[/quote]
Why do you suppose that is?
[quote]By "shortage," I mean the average guy, -once
the main consumer of that good- can't get any.
Thats not very surprising when it isnt clear how long
the hiked demand will last for and no one is stupid
enough to say double their plant production capacity
when that isnt clear.
In other words, under optimum production output
and near zero inventory, a temporary shortage
will ripple into the future indefinately.
It's seemingly happening right now, this is not theory.
Sure, but no one but a fool would ever claim that some
stuff cant ever get into that situation, and it doesnt
have a damned thing to do with zero inventory either.
[/quote]
That's your utterly unsupported opinion stated as fact.
Do you do that often? So are you a dittohead?
[quote]
And how would that shortage ever be filled?
Would smart money build new factories to fill
a temporary demand blip caused over a year ago
when old output seemed about optimum before?
Depends on whether it needs its own factory or whether
just a production run in an existing factory is all thats needed.
[/quote]
Huh!? In English?
So you don't bother to read an article before
you start blabbering?
Do you do that often? So are you a dittohead?
[quote]
That is not a rhetorical question. Thoughts?
I'm that average guy, I'm angry, and I'm in no mood
to be entertained by abstractions claiming this is
not a Supply-and-Demand Failure...abstractions
designed to explain this away and protect Doctrine.
But I know I may be missing something.
Corse you are. No one but a fool has ever claimed
that you dont get some glitches with capitalism.
[/quote]
Failure of supply-and-demand is a failure of
an economics law. But a failure of capitalism
is a matter of opinion.
[quote]
We have just seen the completely implosion of the
entire world financial system, AGAIN, for christ sake.
[/quote]
....and the economic laws were functioning perfectly.
Bad analogy.
[quote]
I'm describing the current ammunition shortage
which was triggered by Obama's election a year ago.
(...And by a new Media/information bias or failure.)
It also triggered a run on weapons causing certain
classes of rifles (like AR) to double in price, but
that has been resolved, prices are normal again.
Average Guy can't get .380 ACP ammo, a popular
small pistol cartridge. Very difficult to find are .40
and .45 Auto pistol cartridges, but Internet
chatter suggests no longer impossible. (These have
all been described as "middle class men's bullets.")
But even ubiquitous .22 and 9mm ammo is difficult to find.
Is anybody still claiming markets are rational?
Only fools ever claimed they were in the sense
that we dont see major glitches at times.
[/quote]
So you assert that "fools" write the Economics textbooks?
I wouldn't dissagree.
[quote]A little Internet searching tells me the
manufacturers are running full blast, 24/7.
(I have no idea if that means output is up.)
Then presumably the demand went thru the roof and
the manufacturers arent stupid enough to spend
substantial money on new production capacity when
the demand may well not be that high for too long etc.
[/quote]
Isn't that what I wrote?
[quote]Its just a tad unlikely that whoever is buying it all is blowing
it away very enthusiastically indeed with it so hard to get.
When I ask for .380 ammo at a gun shop, I'm laughed
at. I talked to the sporting goods clerk at Wal-mart,
he said they get them restocked every two weeks and
they last about two hours on the shelf, despite
a four-box/person limit. The Internet is sold out.
Bottom line: I can't get .380 ammo. Period.
Everybody says that. .380 is the worst.
Others are saying similar things about other
kinds of ammo.
"According to the National Rifle Association
in the U.S., Americans buy about seven billion
rounds of ammunition annually. But by September
this year, they had purchased nine billion rounds."
Internet pricing says a box of 50 .380 rounds
goes for $5 - $50, with $18 about typical. Sample:
- Winchester 95 Gr. FMJ $17.99
- Wolf [Russian] Gold Pistol Ammo 94 Grain HP $18.99
- Remington® UMC 95 Gr. $18.99
...over six brands from www.cabelas.com - all sold out.
I think what we have is also a shortage triggering a
run. That is: the shortage itself is causing demand.
Very likely. Nothing unusual about that.
Then when Average Guy needs ammo to go
shooting and can't find any, he is added to the
ranks scouring the world for ammo, and not wanting
to go thru THAT hassle again buys double to avoid
it again. I know I will. And every gun-show entepreneur
is buying everything they can get too, but I don't
know any of them. (...Is it going black market?)
Looks like a Supply-and-Demand allocation failure to me.
Is it, or isn't it?
Corse it is and only a fool would claim that doesnt ever happen.
[/quote]
Then all the Econ 101 textbooks are fools?
They say it's impossible. In fact many interconnected
economic definitions assume it's impossible, such as
"Supply-and-Demand," and "shortage," and perhaps "price."
[quote]
If not a failure, what is this? Could this be a potential
problem systemic to many other manufactured goods,
Nope. The demand for most of those doesnt vary
that much off what is a pretty low base normally.
[/quote]
That's rather silly on it's face.
That's what they said about ammo.
Since when does past performance gaurentee
future performance?
[quote]
or is this unique to ammo?
Corse not. Its also seen with other stuff thats used
in natural disasters and preparation for them etc.
[/quote]
Are you a dittohead? You seem overly fond of
the armchair postulate, bombast, and soundsgoodism
as evidence of truth.
[quote]If systemic, couldn't a similar shortage of several items
trigger a general run and a shortage avalanche and panic?
Nope. There isnt even a panic with that one, just plenty choosing
to buy what is available even if they dont really need it.
[/quote]
How would the feelings of those causing the shortage
supposedly affect how the masses feel about it?
[quote]...with similar poor market mechanisms for repair?
Yes, when there is considerable doubt about how long the unusual demand will last for.
[/quote]
Huh?
[quote]I told the gun shop owner that he probably
understands a bank run better than any professor.
He didn't laugh. I think he slightly winced.
Bank runs are easier to avoid.
[/quote]
sigh....
- If you scratch a cynic,
- you'll find a defeated idealist. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
| Rod Speed... |
| Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 3:54 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
Doug Bashford wrote
[quote]Rod Speed wrote
Doug Bashford wrote
Looks like a Supply-and-Demand Failure to me.
What do you think?
Many people put up with the well known evils
of Capitalism because it's so damned good at
allocating goods. I'm one of them.
And because all the alteratives that we have tried do that worse.
But when a multi-billion dollar, multi-national
industry fails to deliver a highly demanded
good to me for over a year, I call that failure.
Sure, but only a fool would claim that capitalism is perfect.
...so it's like a car that just needs washing perhaps?
[/quote]
Nope. The imperfections are much more important than that.
The problem is that no one has been able to come up with anything better.
We havent even been able to decide what is the best mix
of capitalism and socialism either, we've just decided that
nothing works better than a mix of capitalism and socialism.
[quote]Everything has its real downsides. Democracy in spades.
But the reason I write this here in sci.econ, is that after
giving it some thought, I believe this problem, seemingly
due to new business practices: "zero inventory," is
systemic. ...that is, a slight unpredicted shortage
triggers a consumer run on that product, leading
to a long term (at least a year) shortage.
That doesnt happen very often at all.
Why do you suppose that is?
[/quote]
Basically you dont get that many dramatic changes in
demand like you just saw with that particular ammunition.
You do see that with say tanksgiving turkeys etc, but that
effect is well known and so easy enough to allow for etc.
[quote]By "shortage," I mean the average guy, -once
the main consumer of that good- can't get any.
Thats not very surprising when it isnt clear how long
the hiked demand will last for and no one is stupid
enough to say double their plant production capacity
when that isnt clear.
In other words, under optimum production output
and near zero inventory, a temporary shortage
will ripple into the future indefinately.
It's seemingly happening right now, this is not theory.
Sure, but no one but a fool would ever claim that some
stuff cant ever get into that situation, and it doesnt
have a damned thing to do with zero inventory either.
That's your utterly unsupported opinion stated as fact.
[/quote]
Wrong, as always.
[quote]Do you do that often?
[/quote]
Dont ever do that.
[quote]So are you a dittohead?
[/quote]
Nope.
[quote]And how would that shortage ever be filled?
Would smart money build new factories to fill
a temporary demand blip caused over a year ago
when old output seemed about optimum before?
Depends on whether it needs its own factory or whether
just a production run in an existing factory is all thats needed.
Huh!? In English?
[/quote]
If you're too stupid to be able to understand something as simple as that...
[quote]So you don't bother to read an article before you start blabbering?
Do you do that often? So are you a dittohead?
[/quote]
And since this shit is the best you can manage, here goes the chain
on the rest of your peurile shit any 2 year old could leave for dead. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
| Doug Bashford... |
| Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 1:01 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
On 5 Nov 2009, Rod Speed said about:
Re: Looks like a Supply-and-Demand allocation Failure to me
[quote]Doug Bashford wrote
Rod Speed wrote
Doug Bashford wrote
Looks like a Supply-and-Demand Failure to me.
What do you think?
[/quote]
.........snip
[quote]Depends on whether it needs its own factory or whether
just a production run in an existing factory is all thats needed.
Huh!? In English?
If you're too stupid to be able to understand something as simple as that...
So you don't bother to read an article before you start blabbering?
Do you do that often? So are you a dittohead?
And since this shit is the best you can manage, here goes the chain
on the rest of your peurile shit any 2 year old could leave for dead.
[/quote]
Thanks for your support.
I couldn't do this without you guys.
Play again anytime.
Hopefully you will be more thoughtfull.
Right: 97.8%
When Bashford speaks, there is nothing left to say.
When in Rome....
- If you scratch a cynic,
- you'll find a defeated idealist. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
| Rod Speed... |
| Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:14 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
Doug Bashford wrote
Since this shit is the best you can manage, here goes the chain
on your peurile shit any 2 year old could leave for dead. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
|
All times are GMT - 5 Hours
The time now is Mon Nov 30, 2009 7:18 pm
|
|