 |
|
| Science Forum Index » Astrology Forum » SHOWDOWN! Herc Vs Jeff Wagg from JREF - psychic... |
|
Page 1 of 1 |
|
| Author |
Message |
| |-|erc... |
 Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2009 1:19 am |
|
|
|
Guest
|
I channel another 3 questions and so does Jeff. Here are my answers.
Will aliens ever visit Earth?
"There are few enough as it is"
OK will Earth be governed by an artificial intelligence in the future?
"logic probes, heat guns"
Will our atmosphere be healthy to breathe in 100 years?
"... managed to go all wrong then"
See my and Jeff's videos at www.GreatestMagicShowOnEarth.com
Who won?
Herc |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
| Andres64... |
| Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2009 2:10 am |
|
|
|
Guest
|
On Sep 28, 3:19 am, "|-|erc" <h... at (no spam) r.c> wrote:
[quote:44407e3be9]I channel another 3 questions and so does Jeff. Here are my answers.
Will aliens ever visit Earth?
"There are few enough as it is"
OK will Earth be governed by an artificial intelligence in the future?
"logic probes, heat guns"
Will our atmosphere be healthy to breathe in 100 years?
"... managed to go all wrong then"
See my and Jeff's videos atwww.GreatestMagicShowOnEarth.com
Who won?
Herc
[/quote:44407e3be9]
Moron
<Plonk> |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
| George... |
| Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:04 am |
|
|
|
Guest
|
On Sep 29, 12:10 am, Andres64 <andres... at (no spam) excite.com> wrote:
[quote:6615df19e9]
Moron
Plonk>-
Its more the sewer he lives in than a channel[/quote:6615df19e9] |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
| Andy W... |
| Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2009 11:44 am |
|
|
|
Guest
|
On 28 Sep, 08:19, "|-|erc" <h... at (no spam) r.c> wrote:
[quote:8c89d1ffb7]I channel another 3 questions and so does Jeff. Here are my answers.
Will aliens ever visit Earth?
"There are few enough as it is"
OK will Earth be governed by an artificial intelligence in the future?
"logic probes, heat guns"
Will our atmosphere be healthy to breathe in 100 years?
"... managed to go all wrong then"
See my and Jeff's videos atwww.GreatestMagicShowOnEarth.com
Who won?
Herc
[/quote:8c89d1ffb7]
Who won??? Based on what criteria?
See, you've got several problems here. First, your questions are too
imprecise. Only one of them gives a time frame and it's a hundred
years away. Second, they are yes/no questions and your answers are
meaningless babble. Are your answers meant to be yes, or no? And how
do you decide? So it is impossible to know if your answers are
correct.
Also, with three yes/no questions, your chances are 1 in 8 of getting
it right by chance. Hardly evidence of psychic abilities. Accuracy
can't be the deciding factor.
So are you judging based on who got an answer that "sounds" like it
belongs with the question? Not very useful, you could make any number
of answers seem to fit.
If you really want to convince people you've got psychic abilities you
need to make a much more unambiguous prediction than this. You need
specific events, dates, places, people, clearly laid out before the
event takes place, not requiring interpretation after the event. Post
that to the internet and you'll have made a hell of a case if it comes
true. Of course, if it doesn't come true, maybe you should consider
the possibility that you're not psychic and you need medical help.
So who won? Actually I'd have to say that you did. Not because you
demonstrated any psychic abilities, you clearly didn't, but because
you actually got someone from JREF to even play along with this stupid
game.
Andy |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
| Andy W... |
| Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2009 1:20 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
On 28 Sep, 22:55, "|-|erc" <h... at (no spam) r.c> wrote:
[quote:669c80bb86]"Andy W" <vor... at (no spam) mailinator.com> wrote
On 28 Sep, 08:19, "|-|erc" <h... at (no spam) r.c> wrote:
I channel another 3 questions and so does Jeff. Here are my answers.
Will aliens ever visit Earth?
"There are few enough as it is"
OK will Earth be governed by an artificial intelligence in the future?
"logic probes, heat guns"
Will our atmosphere be healthy to breathe in 100 years?
"... managed to go all wrong then"
See my and Jeff's videos atwww.GreatestMagicShowOnEarth.com
Who won?
Herc
Who won??? Based on what criteria?
See, you've got several problems here. First, your questions are too
imprecise. Only one of them gives a time frame and it's a hundred
years away. Second, they are yes/no questions and your answers are
meaningless babble. Are your answers meant to be yes, or no? And how
do you decide? So it is impossible to know if your answers are
correct.
Also, with three yes/no questions, your chances are 1 in 8 of getting
it right by chance. Hardly evidence of psychic abilities. Accuracy
can't be the deciding factor.
So are you judging based on who got an answer that "sounds" like it
belongs with the question? Not very useful, you could make any number
of answers seem to fit.
If you really want to convince people you've got psychic abilities you
need to make a much more unambiguous prediction than this. You need
specific events, dates, places, people, clearly laid out before the
event takes place, not requiring interpretation after the event. Post
that to the internet and you'll have made a hell of a case if it comes
true. Of course, if it doesn't come true, maybe you should consider
the possibility that you're not psychic and you need medical help.
So who won? Actually I'd have to say that you did. Not because you
demonstrated any psychic abilities, you clearly didn't, but because
you actually got someone from JREF to even play along with this stupid
game.
Andy
----------------------------------------
So if you were on the phone with a 3 year old on one line and a 20 year old
on the other and you had a few minutes to talk to each, you would have no way
of knowing who was who?
[/quote:669c80bb86]
In what way is that even remotely the same thing?
[quote:669c80bb86]
What would your criteria be? How precise must your questions be?
[/quote:669c80bb86]
Well it would have to be possible to determine if the answers were
correct for one thing.
[quote:669c80bb86] Have you
ever asked a yes / no question and got a yes or no answer?
[/quote:669c80bb86]
Yes.
[quote:669c80bb86] 1 in 8 of getting what
right?
[/quote:669c80bb86]
Any three yes/no questions. It's simple maths.
[quote:669c80bb86]If any answers fit how are you going to tell who is the 20 year old?
[/quote:669c80bb86]
The one with the deeper voice, usually.
[quote:669c80bb86]
Why don't you try smart ass to open a book and tell me YOUR ANSWER to whether
aliens will visit Earth. And if you say "the speed of light cannot be attained" or some BS
like that please try it again on video first.
Herc
[/quote:669c80bb86]
You appear to have missed the point. It cannot be known whether or not
anyone gets the answer to that question right. Or is the extent of
your ability to find answers that sound like they go with the
question, regardless of whether they are actually meaningful?
Andy |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
| |-|erc... |
| Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2009 3:55 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
"Andy W" <vorath at (no spam) mailinator.com> wrote
On 28 Sep, 08:19, "|-|erc" <h... at (no spam) r.c> wrote:
[quote:9f59141196]I channel another 3 questions and so does Jeff. Here are my answers.
Will aliens ever visit Earth?
"There are few enough as it is"
OK will Earth be governed by an artificial intelligence in the future?
"logic probes, heat guns"
Will our atmosphere be healthy to breathe in 100 years?
"... managed to go all wrong then"
See my and Jeff's videos atwww.GreatestMagicShowOnEarth.com
Who won?
Herc
[/quote:9f59141196]
Who won??? Based on what criteria?
See, you've got several problems here. First, your questions are too
imprecise. Only one of them gives a time frame and it's a hundred
years away. Second, they are yes/no questions and your answers are
meaningless babble. Are your answers meant to be yes, or no? And how
do you decide? So it is impossible to know if your answers are
correct.
Also, with three yes/no questions, your chances are 1 in 8 of getting
it right by chance. Hardly evidence of psychic abilities. Accuracy
can't be the deciding factor.
So are you judging based on who got an answer that "sounds" like it
belongs with the question? Not very useful, you could make any number
of answers seem to fit.
If you really want to convince people you've got psychic abilities you
need to make a much more unambiguous prediction than this. You need
specific events, dates, places, people, clearly laid out before the
event takes place, not requiring interpretation after the event. Post
that to the internet and you'll have made a hell of a case if it comes
true. Of course, if it doesn't come true, maybe you should consider
the possibility that you're not psychic and you need medical help.
So who won? Actually I'd have to say that you did. Not because you
demonstrated any psychic abilities, you clearly didn't, but because
you actually got someone from JREF to even play along with this stupid
game.
Andy
----------------------------------------
So if you were on the phone with a 3 year old on one line and a 20 year old
on the other and you had a few minutes to talk to each, you would have no way
of knowing who was who?
What would your criteria be? How precise must your questions be? Have you
ever asked a yes / no question and got a yes or no answer? 1 in 8 of getting what
right? If any answers fit how are you going to tell who is the 20 year old?
Why don't you try smart ass to open a book and tell me YOUR ANSWER to whether
aliens will visit Earth. And if you say "the speed of light cannot be attained" or some BS
like that please try it again on video first.
Herc |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
| Andy W... |
| Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2009 1:10 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
On 29 Sep, 21:21, "|-|erc" <h... at (no spam) r.c> wrote:
[quote:d4753b37ef]"Andy W" <vor... at (no spam) mailinator.com> wrote
On 29 Sep, 01:01, "|-|erc" <h... at (no spam) r.c> wrote:
snips
If I ask three questions to which the answers must be either "yes" or
"no" there are only eight possible patterns of answers: YYY, NYY, YNY,
YYN, NNY, NYN, YNN, NNN. So if I ask these questions and you just
guess the answers, you have a 1 in 8 chance of getting the right
pattern. It's just like tossing a coin.
--------------------------------
If someone judged my 3 answers to be better than Jeff's then that might have some relevancy.
[/quote:d4753b37ef]
You had three questions to which the answers should have been either
yes or no, and you managed neither in any of them, and even if you
had, there would be no way to tell if you were correct. That's the
only thing that has any relevancy. Who cares if you managed to pick
out more similar words than Jeff? This intelligence you think you're
channelling doesn't tell you anything.
[quote:d4753b37ef]
--------------------------------------------
They can be meaningfuly related, or answers. The questions must be something
the skeptic company WANTS TO KNOW, so they can't know the answer unfortunately,
that's the only way it works. No quizzes.
That's just silly. Why would it matter if I already knew the answer?
--------------------------------------------------------
it doesn't work like an enyclopedia, only helpful information, you must have a genuine
interest.
[/quote:d4753b37ef]
Why? How can you tell if it was a genuine question? For that matter,
how can you tell if it worked?
[quote:d4753b37ef]
Why can't I ask a question to which the answer is not currently known
but soon will be? Come to that, since you don't even answer the
questions, it doesn't matter if they are questions at all.
------------------------------------------
"not being many aliens" did answer the question.
[/quote:d4753b37ef]
Will aliens ever visit Earth?
"There are few enough as it is"
So that wasn't what you said, and it doesn't answer the question. Was
that yes, or no? And once again, how will you know if you got it
right?
[quote:d4753b37ef] you can ask something
you don't know which will soon transpire. 2 problems are that would only
work if 1/ the future was set, and visible. or 2/ the motions are already in
place to make it happen, like continental plate movements the channel might
detect an earthquake weeks before.
but what would you be interested in that will soon transpire? a football result?
it's hard to find a genuine interest in something that's going to happen soon.
the claim is to get intelligent responses, not guess the future.
[/quote:d4753b37ef]
Pretty much all the questions have been about the future. It certainly
looked like you were trying to make predictions. And evidently your
idea of intelligent responses is not the same as mine.
[quote:d4753b37ef]
All you appear to be doing is scanning a page and finding a few
similar words. I suppose that might be a useful trick at times but
nothing more than that.
----------------------------------------------------
no you can see my eyes don't move until I read out aloud, I only have enough
time to focus on the page and start reading. Even a speed reader would take
a second to scan a paragraph, and usually their eyes move down the center of
the page.
[/quote:d4753b37ef]
So you take in the whole page without being aware of it. Well done. It
doesn't much matter how you do it. While your answers are no more than
word association it is no proof of psychic ability.
<more snips>
[quote:d4753b37ef]
Phase 2
The questions and the 3 randomly sorted answers for each question are printed out and given
to my sister. She has 2 hours to mark which answer she thinks is the most appropriate. The number
of times she selects my answer will be my score.
Whoa. You have just one person marking these? And it's your own
sister? Do you not think this might prejudice the results just a
teensy bit?
------------
why? If anyone did the matches they might just pick a random entry and void the experiment.
anyone can do it with a genuine interest in ticking the best response.
[/quote:d4753b37ef]
So do that. Having your sister do it is going to look like cheating.
Get several people to do it and pool the results.
[quote:d4753b37ef]
The hypothesis is there is no normal means within the current understanding of science that a person
in a closed booth could tell which phrases were selected by the claimant, as they were selected with
a random process the same as the control's answers were. This is why the same book has to be used
because someone familiar with the book could recognise some phrases, also the claimant should
open the book at various positions, always selecting the final chapter could give a clue to who got
those answers.
I'm sure a skilled magician could do it easily.
-------------------------------
How? All the responses were found randomly from the same book. How can you tell
who found them?
The only cheat would be if I read out the full 2 sentences every time, that would give it away.
That could be flagged as cheating, or the 2 controls could watch my turn and just use the same
technique.
[/quote:d4753b37ef]
I don't know how. I'm not a magician. But I have watched some perform
feats of apparently psychic ability that looked far better than this,
by cheating. I reckon James Randi could beat you.
[quote:d4753b37ef]
At the moment this seems more like a test of your sister's ability to
identify your phrases. And you haven't said what score you were giving
-----------------------------------------------------
Either would be paranormal.
[/quote:d4753b37ef]
Or that she just knows you well enough to pick out your answers from
two other random guys.
[quote:d4753b37ef] But judges can check the answers and see if
they score as well as my sister, it will be obvious I'm getting in context answers
from the book.
[/quote:d4753b37ef]
I already said you should do that..
[quote:d4753b37ef] The target is 46/100 to beat 100 to 1 odds of chance.
[/quote:d4753b37ef]
Yes, you said what your target was. You still didn't say what your
actual score was. You didn't hit your target, did you?
[quote:d4753b37ef]
yourself. In any event, I suspect the JREF is going to want a hell of
a lot better than this.
Andy
---------------------------------
Now who's being harsh.
[/quote:d4753b37ef]
Not harsh. Just realistic. Randi has a million dollars riding on this,
he's going to be a lot tougher than me.
Andy |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
| |-|erc... |
| Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2009 5:36 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
We're on different wavelengths. the claim is my answers are recognisably better
than a controls. If you don't think that's paranormal then no use in arguing.
Herc |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
|
All times are GMT - 5 Hours
The time now is Sat Nov 28, 2009 3:22 pm
|
|