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| Belba Grubb... |
 Posted: Thu Sep 24, 2009 2:51 am |
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I just ran across the news (at the Volcanism Blog) and then a public
blog discussion of the latest little swarm (all within normal limits
for the volcano, per the CVO) at Mount Rainier.
http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2009/09/whats_might_be_happening_at_mt.php
It was striking and very good to see the rational level of discussion
going on. Seems to me the public is holding up its end of the hazard
mitigation and awareness conversation quite well. Definitely an
encouraging note!
Also, here's the PNSN "one-stop" Web site for Rainier, with handy
quick links to other PNW volcanoes at the top: http://www.pnsn.org/RAINIER/welcome.html
Barb
--------
"Anything in history or nature that can be described as changing
steadily can be seen as heading toward catastrophe."
-- Susan Sontag
"Real difficulties can be overcome, it is only the imaginary ones that
are unconquerable."
-- Theodore N. Vail |
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| Damon Hill... |
| Posted: Thu Sep 24, 2009 9:45 pm |
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Belba Grubb <trungsisterfan at (no spam) yahoo.com> wrote in
news:03880ece-e452-489a-8fe2-bb29c8e418f3 at (no spam) p15g2000vbl.googlegroups.com:
[quote:0227dda320]I just ran across the news (at the Volcanism Blog) and then a public
blog discussion of the latest little swarm (all within normal limits
for the volcano, per the CVO) at Mount Rainier.
http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2009/09/whats_might_be_happening_at_m
t.php
It was striking and very good to see the rational level of discussion
going on. Seems to me the public is holding up its end of the hazard
mitigation and awareness conversation quite well. Definitely an
encouraging note!
Also, here's the PNSN "one-stop" Web site for Rainier, with handy
quick links to other PNW volcanoes at the top:
http://www.pnsn.org/RAINIER/welcome.html
[/quote:0227dda320]
Haven't noticed mention of this in the local news, probably because
the events are relatively few and very small. If it persists and/or
there are events above M3.something, I'll be watching more closely as
I now live right on the White River...
--Damon |
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| Belba Grubb... |
| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2009 7:30 am |
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On Sep 24, 11:45 pm, Damon Hill <damon1S... at (no spam) comcast.netnet> wrote:
[quote:22cd9bccb4]Haven't noticed mention of this in the local news, probably because
the events are relatively few and very small. If it persists and/or
there are events above M3.something, I'll be watching more closely as
I now live right on the White River...
[/quote:22cd9bccb4]
Well, they probably are taking their lead from the CVO, which thus far
says it's within normal limits but they're watching closely. This
graphical presentation accessed through the PNSN "one-stop" link
mentioned above puts a good perspective on it:
http://www.pnsn.org/RAINIER/rainfigs.html
It's a bit more intense activity, but still mostly in the area where
there has been activity for at least 10 years. I don't have the
references handy now, but from readings in previous years, isn't that
about the place where the cooling magma from the last active period is
thought to be? If more quakes started appearing at a deeper depth and/
or a different direction than just the apparently random few currently
seen outside the main cluster, you likely would start hearing about it
in the local news.
The thing is, of course, that a lahar might not have any seismic
precursor and doesn't require any new magma intrusion. How are things
with the public warning system now?
<speculation>
I've wondered what role webcams/other cameras can play in a warning
system there. They work at light speed and so theoretically could
provide faster notice, day or night, than the ones that are tripped by
a passing lahar. Something like microwave might be needed for
inclement weather and fog, perhaps, and that would not be cheap, but
it might work pretty well. With the computer programs they have
nowadays, any change whatsoever in the appearance could be detected--
just like cameras are set to recognize suspects in a crowd. This would
be almost in real-time and could be done automatically, with any
suspicious changes immediately sent to a human for verification.
</speculation>
Barb
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"Confidence is preparation. Everything else is beyond your control."
-- Richard Kline |
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| Damon Hill... |
| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:08 pm |
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Belba Grubb <trungsisterfan at (no spam) yahoo.com> wrote in news:7cd3b641-c3e1-4d4e-
8587-760befc60e61 at (no spam) q14g2000vbi.googlegroups.com:
[quote:f9ee0b11d9]On Sep 24, 11:45 pm, Damon Hill <damon1S... at (no spam) comcast.netnet> wrote:
Haven't noticed mention of this in the local news, probably because
the events are relatively few and very small. If it persists and/or
there are events above M3.something, I'll be watching more closely as
I now live right on the White River...
Well, they probably are taking their lead from the CVO, which thus far
says it's within normal limits but they're watching closely. This
graphical presentation accessed through the PNSN "one-stop" link
mentioned above puts a good perspective on it:
http://www.pnsn.org/RAINIER/rainfigs.html
It's a bit more intense activity, but still mostly in the area where
there has been activity for at least 10 years. I don't have the
references handy now, but from readings in previous years, isn't that
about the place where the cooling magma from the last active period is
thought to be? If more quakes started appearing at a deeper depth and/
or a different direction than just the apparently random few currently
seen outside the main cluster, you likely would start hearing about it
in the local news.
The thing is, of course, that a lahar might not have any seismic
precursor and doesn't require any new magma intrusion. How are things
with the public warning system now?
speculation
I've wondered what role webcams/other cameras can play in a warning
system there. They work at light speed and so theoretically could
provide faster notice, day or night, than the ones that are tripped by
a passing lahar. Something like microwave might be needed for
inclement weather and fog, perhaps, and that would not be cheap, but
it might work pretty well. With the computer programs they have
nowadays, any change whatsoever in the appearance could be detected--
just like cameras are set to recognize suspects in a crowd. This would
be almost in real-time and could be done automatically, with any
suspicious changes immediately sent to a human for verification.
/speculation
Barb
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"Confidence is preparation. Everything else is beyond your control."
-- Richard Kline
[/quote:f9ee0b11d9]
A flood warning system combined with presumably seismically triggered
lahar warning is in place; any significant lahar is going to have a
distinct 'signature'. One hopes that it works reliably. Warnings
have been triggered on glacial outbursts.
The last really massive lahar was caused by the summit collapse of
Rainier; the Nisqually '01 earthquake and several other significant
earthquakes over the last century haven't triggered any lahars or
major landslides, but very minor events occur on a daily basis--I've
witnessed a couple while up at Paradise.
There's nothing going on to suggest Rainier's going to become more
active and it might be tens of thousands of years before a large
magma event occurs. Or it might be a couple of years from now. That's
the hazard of having one in your virtual back yard, but I really think
Mt. St. Helens was "it" for our region and era.
The household plan for a major lahar/flood from Emmons Glacier that
Mud Mountain Dam can't contain is to hope for sufficient warning to
grab the cats and run for it. I don't lose any sleep over the
possibility.
--Damon |
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| Belba Grubb... |
| Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2009 5:00 am |
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On Sep 25, 7:08 pm, Damon Hill <damon1S... at (no spam) comcast.netnet> wrote:
[quote:eec7b15fb1]The household plan for a major lahar/flood from Emmons Glacier that
Mud Mountain Dam can't contain is to hope for sufficient warning to
grab the cats and run for it. I don't lose any sleep over the
possibility.
[/quote:eec7b15fb1]
Sounds pretty good, and kudos for thinking of the cats!! I've always
felt sorry about Harry Truman's 16 little companions.
My policy is more drastic: avoid some areas completely. This keeps me
away from Hawaii (sudden unexpected flank collapse) and Yellowstone
(hydrothermal explosions), for example, which is a shame. Fortunately,
most people are more reasonable about it all.
Barb
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""Beware lest you lose the substance by grasping at the shadow."
-- Aesop |
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| The Other Guy... |
| Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2009 11:48 am |
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On Sun, 27 Sep 2009 08:00:52 -0700 (PDT), Belba Grubb
<trungsisterfan at (no spam) yahoo.com> wrote:
[quote:8ecc24d57d]My policy is more drastic: avoid some areas completely. This keeps me
away from Hawaii (sudden unexpected flank collapse) and Yellowstone
(hydrothermal explosions), for example, which is a shame. Fortunately,
most people are more reasonable about it all.
[/quote:8ecc24d57d]
I'd think the SAFEST place to be if there's a flank collapse in Hawaii
is IN Hawaii (the tsunami will be moving AWAY from the island!). |
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| Belba Grubb... |
| Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2009 4:20 am |
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On Sep 27, 1:48 pm, The Other Guy <knewskg... at (no spam) gmail.com> wrote:
[quote:009d1a1383]I'd think the SAFEST place to be if there's a flank collapse in Hawaii
is IN Hawaii (the tsunami will be moving AWAY from the island!).
[/quote:009d1a1383]
Well, it's the flank of Mauna Loa that I'm thinking of; am not sure of
the exact area of the Big Island that a collapse would include, but at
least part of the land there would do an Atlantis (or Numenor, for
Tolkien folk, though perhaps without the wave), and it probably
wouldn't be much fun riding it all out on what was left of the island,
either.
That said, I know it's very silly of me to avoid going to such a
beautiful and interesting place because of a mere possibility, and a
remote one in my lifetime at that.
Barb
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http://www.oneil.com.au/tolkien/maps/map_numenor.html |
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