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Belba Grubb...

Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:54 pm

Guest

At the risk of distracting public attention away from the amazing
discovery of a perfectly preserved feline bezoar on Mars and also at
the Bronx Zoo, I wondered if any weather fans here might be watching
Bertha going annular tonight. It's only the storm's latest amazing
development -- this is definitely one for the record books for a
number of reasons. Big B may not go completely annular, but it's
interesting.

Barb
----------
Then while they meditated, it became clear to them that when dawn
would break, man must appear. Then they planned the creation, and the
growth of the trees and the thickets and the birth of life and the
creation of man. Thus it was arranged in the darkness and in the night
by the Heart of Heaven who is called Huracán. ... And immediately they
[the four first men] began to see all that was in the world …giving
thanks for their creation and formation. They were able to know all,
and they examined the four corners, the four points of the arch of the
sky and the round face of the earth.

But the Creator and the Maker did not hear this with pleasure. "It is
not well what our creatures, our works say; they know all, the large
and the small," they said. And so the Forefathers held counsel
again…"Let us check a little their desires, because it is not well
what we see. Must they perchance be the equals of ourselves, their
Makers, who can see afar, who know all and see all?"

Thus spoke the Heart of Heaven, Huracán ,,,

,,,

Then the Heart of Heaven blew mist into their eyes, which clouded
their sight as when a mirror is breathed upon. Their eyes were covered
and they could see only what was close, only that was clear to them.

In this way the wisdom and all the knowledge of the four men, the
origin and beginning [of the Quiché race], were destroyed.

-- From the Popol Vuh

Jo Schaper...

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:17 am

Guest

Belba Grubb wrote:

Quote:

Could you please explain what annular is? All I know is an annular
eclipse or annular tree rings, neither of which seems to fit the idea of
a hurricane.

John Popelish...

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:05 am

Guest

Jo Schaper wrote:

Quote:

Belba Grubb wrote:
At the risk of distracting public attention away from the amazing
discovery of a perfectly preserved feline bezoar on Mars and also at
the Bronx Zoo, I wondered if any weather fans here might be watching
Bertha going annular tonight. It's only the storm's latest amazing
development -- this is definitely one for the record books for a
number of reasons. Big B may not go completely annular, but it's
interesting.

Barb

Could you please explain what annular is? All I know is an annular
eclipse or annular tree rings, neither of which seems to fit the idea of
a hurricane.

Here is the best explanation I found:
http://encycl.opentopia.com/term/Annular_hurricane
and a previous example:
http://weather.wikia.com/wiki/Hurricane_Epsilon_(2005)

--
Regards,

John Popelish

George...

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:18 am

Guest

"John Popelish" <jpopelish at (no spam) rica.net> wrote in message
news:ueidnbVjf6d0-urVnZ2dnUVZ_v7inZ2d at (no spam) comcast.com...

Quote:

Jo Schaper wrote:
Belba Grubb wrote:
At the risk of distracting public attention away from the amazing
discovery of a perfectly preserved feline bezoar on Mars and also at
the Bronx Zoo, I wondered if any weather fans here might be watching
Bertha going annular tonight. It's only the storm's latest amazing
development -- this is definitely one for the record books for a
number of reasons. Big B may not go completely annular, but it's
interesting.

Barb

Could you please explain what annular is? All I know is an annular
eclipse or annular tree rings, neither of which seems to fit the idea of
a hurricane.

Here is the best explanation I found:
http://encycl.opentopia.com/term/Annular_hurricane

"This type of storm is not prone to fluctuations in intensity related to
eyewall replacement cycles typically seen in intense tropical cyclones".

The GOESS visible loop I just looked at on the WHC web site shows active
replacement of the eyewall, so I don't think this one is an annular
hurricane, but I'm not a meteorologist, so I could be wrong.

George

...

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 4:09 pm

Guest

On Jul 11, 6:17 am, Jo Schaper <jo345sch765a... at (no spam) s9ocket.net> wrote:

Quote:

Barb

Could you please explain what annular is? All I know is an annular
eclipse or annular tree rings, neither of which seems to fit the idea of
a hurricane.

An annular hurricane is a hurricane with a large eye and no or few
rainbands. It basically looks like a doughnut. It doesn't have the
spiral bands that you associate with hurricanes. The storms need very
specific conditions to form. Mainly low wind shear and consistant,
but not hot waters. Annular hurricanes can hold their strength when
they enter cooler waters that would normally destroy other
hurricanes. While Bertha is showing signs of an annular storm, it is
not one.

Hurricane Isabel is a good example of an annular hurricane.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hurricane_Isabel.JPG

Belba Grubb...

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 5:02 pm

Guest

Jo Schaper wrote:

Quote:

Could you please explain what annular is? All I know is an annular
eclipse or annular tree rings, neither of which seems to fit the idea of
a hurricane.

Jo, there have been some excellent replies here, but I'll put in what
I've learned just watching weather in general and hurricanes in
particular over the last several years. (Caveat: I have no training in
meteorology whatsoever, but have had the good fortune to stumble on
Talkweather Forum, where many meteorologists and some researchers and
a lot of students hang out. That, combined with practical interest, as
I usually live in a tornado- and hurricane-prone region of the
country, have spurred me to study up on my own, just out of curiosity
and 'self-defense.' I haven't had reason to study up much on annular
hurricanes -- they are rare and very complicated, but I understand
it's a big research topic in meteorology circles. Of note, folks at
the forum are comparing Bertha in 2008 to Howard in this example,
which I haven't had a chance to read yet: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articles/annularhurr.pdf
Perhaps that will help.)

The definition of an annular hurricane is deceptively simple: a
tropical cyclone with a large eye and symmetric convection on all
sides. IOW, it looks a ring, hence the name. In the really well-
developed ones, there are no convective bands at all.

I used to think annular hurricanes were always very strong. They're
not. If you see a satellite shot of a wide hurricane with a pin-point,
clearly defined eye, *that* is probably a Category 5 monster, but as
we're seeing with Bertha, an annular hurricane can be as low as a
Category 1 in intensity. I read somewhere that 85 knots is usually
considered the cut-off point above which a storm can go annular, and
that is just about where Bertha has been for the last couple of days,
after it dropped down from a Category 3.

Hurricanes are such simple and yet beautiful beasts. There is a lot on
the Web about the basics of their formation, and this page
http://www.hurricanezone.net/articles/tropical-cyclone-formation.html
is my favorite reference on it this season. Basically, there is an
area of low pressure (the reasons for which are explained at the given
link) that enters an ocean region that has the right conditions of
warm surface ocean temperatures and some wind but very little shear
over it. Moisture and heat rise from the ocean, stay elevated for a
little while; the moisture rains out, and then that air parcel sinks
as it cools and dries out. It then tends to flow toward the center of
the low pressure zone along the pressure gradient and picks up more
heat and moisture from the ocean surface. As the process continues, it
intensifies, speeds up, and the low pressure starts to drop even
lower. Eventually an eye forms (at the central region of lowest
pressure; it is clear because the air is descending and dry) and by
now the storm is a "breathing" entity (meaning there is inflow of air
into the center, spiraling because of the Coriolis force, and outflow
of air through the walls that line the eye -- the descending air in
the eye is a result of this outflow).

It's a cycle that's very hard to get going, but once going, feeds
itself and is only interrupted by cutoff of water/heat (movement of
the storm over cold water, for instance) or disruption of the wind
system (as in a strongly sheared atmosphere). When the storm moves
over land, not only is the water source cut off, but also friction
starts playing a role to mess up the wind system and storm structure.
Hurricanes don't last long over land.

Generally, dry air can kill off a hurricane really quickly and for
obvious reasons. Several years ago, Ivan "the Terrible" was headed
straight for the Alabama coast (I was living in Alabama then, about
150 miles inland but in a direct line with the incoming hurricane). As
it crossed the Gulf after terrorizing the Caribbean, it sucked in a
big draught of Sonoran dry air off the Mexican coast. That went into
the core and actually decapitated the storm as well as dramatically
weakening it. It was the strangest thing to see on the radar, with the
eye (what was left of it) crossing our coastline even as this huge
convective mess from the upper levels of the storm poured out ahead of
it and over us. As a result, Ivan wasn't bad at all for us,
fortunately.

I mention that because one of the weird things about annular
hurricanes is that dry air actually helps in their formation. I don't
know why. I'm not sure if anyone does. It has happened twice with
Bertha, once a few days ago, and then last night as I was watching the
water vapor satellite imagery at http://www.goes.noaa.gov/g8hu.html .
The 8-km Gulf/Atlantic imagery on that page is especially helpful,
although the GOES storm floater at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
gives the most detail, as well as the widest range of channels to view
the storm with. At the time I was looking more at the Basin images
because Bertha was about 10 degrees of longitude wide and it was
impossible to get a sense of the outflow on the GOES floater image.
They called her Big Bertha for a reason!

Anyway, there had been a glob of dry, probably Saharan air (Saharan
dust sometimes reaches the Caribbean, as you probably know) to the
south and southeast of the storm for many days, hindering its outflow
in that direction, and last night, on one satellite pass especially,
Bertha looked like a cinammon roll, with the dark line that indicates
dry air on a WV image going straight from that dry air into the core.
It was wide, too: that is, a *lot* of dry air. I figured that was it
for her, but the people at the National Hurricane Center were already
saying the complex eye process that had begun earlier in the day
yesterday was turning the hurricane annular, and this is indeed what
happened and is ongoing now. Within six hours that dark line had
filled in with moisture/convection and the eye structure was starting
to look like it currently does; the dry area there now is the only
remnant of that whole big draught of air.

You just don't usually see that happen to a hurricane that has taken a
bunch of dry air into its core.

Bertha is unusual for a number of reasons, not only the current
annularity: its early formation at this time of year and rapid
intensification and weakening cycles are also unusual. Tonight, if you
look at the GOES floater image, and especially the Rainbow view, you
can see a classic (but not perfect) annular hurricane: the eye isn't
complete yet, but the convection surrounding it, while also not yet
completely symmetrical, is much more symmetric than it was last night.

It's just a really neat storm, even if it is "just" a Category 1
hurricane right now. That's why I posted here to see if anyone was
following it and might have some thoughts on it. There isn't a whole
lot of discussion on the forum about it and none on
sci.geo.meteorology: I think people just have kind of decided to sit
back and see what happens next. Bertha may be writing a whole new
chapter in the books.

It's hard to say what it will mean for Bermuda if Bertha becomes
completely annular (big and completely round eye). I've read that
annular hurricanes can survive over colder waters and are not
necessarily steered by air currents the way normal hurricanes are. It
should pass Bermuda by to the east, but this weekend and Monday
especially are going to be interesting all around, and nobody can
really say for sure what is going to happen. The folks at the NHC have
been doing a wonderful job with it, though.

Barb
----------
“The substance of the winds is too thin for human eyes, their written
language is too difficult for human minds, and their spoken language
mostly too faint for the ears.”
-- John Muir

Well, sometimes it can be too loud for human ears to bear.

Belba Grubb...

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 5:17 pm

Guest

PS: In case anyone is interested, the National Hurricane Center is
online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ . The Weather Underground Tropical
North Atlantic page at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=at
is also a nice, one-stop place for updated information, including
models and recent forecast tracks.

Barb

J. Taylor...

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:09 pm

Guest

On Fri, 11 Jul 2008 10:05:15 -0400, John Popelish <jpopelish at (no spam) rica.net>
wrote:

Quote:

(not so much a reply to the post as just adding my 2 cents to the
topic)

Google Earth with the weather layer turned on allows the satellite
images to be an overlay.

jonathan...

Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:42 am

Guest

"Belba Grubb" <trungsisterfan at (no spam) yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:f2f727e5-145a-4671-b04a-850e6a02f03f at (no spam) d45g2000hsc.googlegroups.com...
Jo Schaper wrote:

Quote:

Could you please explain what annular is? All I know is an annular
eclipse or annular tree rings, neither of which seems to fit the idea of
a hurricane.

The definition of an annular hurricane is deceptively simple: a
tropical cyclone with a large eye and symmetric convection on all
sides. IOW, it looks a ring, hence the name. In the really well-
developed ones, there are no convective bands at all.

My first hurricane had an eye that was a solid 'ring' if
there ever was one. Try sitting helplessly at home for
half the night watching the radar loop of this thing
coming straight at ya.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/andrew1992/radar.html

The suspense is just incredible. As the thing steadily approaches
the sense of forboding grows by the minute, your imagination
starts to fly off the handle. About three hours before it
arrives all the tv and radio stations start dropping off
one by one until there's nothing but the wind to listen to.
And for those last couple of hours there's no way to know
if it turning towards you, or getting stronger or what.
You assume the worst and just have to ...sit there
and wait for it.

Quote:

Barb
----------
"The substance of the winds is too thin for human eyes, their written
language is too difficult for human minds, and their spoken language
mostly too faint for the ears."
-- John Muir

" I Think that the root of the Wind is Water,
It would not sound so deep
Were it a firmamental product,
Airs no Oceans keep-
Mediterranean intonations,
To a Current's ear
There is a maritime conviction
In the atmosphere."

Emily Dickinson

Well, sometimes it can be too loud for human ears to bear.

Belba Grubb...

Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 4:39 pm

Guest

jonathan wrote:

Quote:

There is much to be said for preparation and knowledge ("Hurricane
Strike" at https://www.meted.ucar.edu/loginForm.php?urlPath=hurrican
is an excellent example of this), and it's good to have the online
radar and satellite and buoy information and all the rest available
today, but I watched Katrina form and cross the Gulf, knowing it was
going to hit New Orleans because the NHC had predicted that pretty
soon after it had cleared the Florida coast. That actually made that
storm traumatic for me, I think (though it was only a full strength
tropical storm/barely Category 1 hurricane by the time it got far
enough inland to affect us): to this day, I can't bear to see any
radar or satellite images of that storm. A similar thing with Felix
crossing the Miskito Coast of Nicaragua last year, knowing the tens of
thousands of Indians who were in its path on the cays and low coastal
areas (a number that has never been acknowledged, AFAIK).

Quote:

Mars will never really be "home" to us, if and when we make it there,
not even if we become the Martians, as Bradbury put it; we carry too
much of the Ocean in us for that to happen.

Barb

PS: Right after my post last night, Bertha did some unusual things
that did not include becoming annular. Very interesting but weird
storm. Right now it may be committing suicide by sitting in pretty
much the same place and churning up cold water from the depths of the
relatively shallow water there, though the NHC does expect it to move
on and remain a hurricane/tropical storm for a few days more.

Jo Schaper...

Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 6:35 pm

Guest

Thanks to all for answers. Yes, I was being lazy in not looking it up,
but I was also headed out of town for a few days, and had to keep
focused on packing, while curious about the topic.

Jonathan-- sitting right there and watching a hurricane head for you
when you have hours of notification isn't the brightest thing to do.
Here in the Midwest, if we see twister on a storm track, we get the h
out of there by driving at a cross angle of direction if we can, or at
least move into the basement or into a ditch if one just spins up
without more than a few minutes' warning. When you live in twister
country, it's hard to figure why people would rather ride out a
hurricane than running away. It's like people who stay in their homes
when it is dead certain that a flood is coming, it's not a flash flood,
and you have days or at least a couple of hours of warning. Stuff is
stuff, people. It's a pain to lose it, but you can always get more stuff.

There are very few people with so few friends/acquaintances that they
won't take you in for a day or two after an intense storm, and that's
why people set up public shelters.

jonathan...

Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:01 pm

Guest

"Belba Grubb" <trungsisterfan at (no spam) yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:d9886bca-3aaf-48bf-9438-f51a06da72b3 at (no spam) i76g2000hsf.googlegroups.com...

Quote:

jonathan wrote:

My first hurricane had an eye that was a solid 'ring' if
there ever was one. Try sitting helplessly at home for
half the night watching the radar loop of this thing
coming straight at ya.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/andrew1992/radar.html

The suspense is just incredible. As the thing steadily approaches
the sense of forbidding grows by the minute, your imagination
starts to fly off the handle. About three hours before it
arrives all the tv and radio stations start dropping off
one by one until there's nothing but the wind to listen to.
And for those last couple of hours there's no way to know
if it turning towards you, or getting stronger or what.
You assume the worst and just have to ...sit there
and wait for it.

There is much to be said for preparation and knowledge ("Hurricane
Strike" at https://www.meted.ucar.edu/loginForm.php?urlPath=hurrican
is an excellent example of this),
and it's good to have the online
radar and satellite and buoy information and all the rest available
today, but I watched Katrina form and cross the Gulf, knowing it was
going to hit New Orleans because the NHC had predicted that pretty
soon after it had cleared the Florida coast.

The eye of Katrina went right over my house in Florida. The first
time I experienced an eye. It was Wilma couple of weeks later
that still gives me the chills. I still can't believe how powerful
Katrina and Wilma were. Their eyes were almost 100 miles
across while at cat 5 strength, that's almost unheard of
and their combined size and strength pretty much defines
the largest ever witnessed on this half of the planet.
Andrew had an eye only 15 or 20 miles across while
at cat 5 speed, yet it caused $35 billion in damage.

Quote:

That actually made that
storm traumatic for me, I think (though it was only a full strength
tropical storm/barely Category 1 hurricane by the time it got far
enough inland to affect us): to this day, I can't bear to see any
radar or satellite images of that storm. A similar thing with Felix
crossing the Miskito Coast of Nicaragua last year, knowing the tens of
thousands of Indians who were in its path on the cays and low coastal
areas (a number that has never been acknowledged, AFAIK).

I know what you mean, in the third world countries they cause so
much more loss of life. The building codes in S Florida have
gotten good enough we can almost relax and enjoy them.
At least until the plumbing starts honking, at 110 mph or so, when
the vacuum gets high enough to empty the pipes, then it's time
to worry.

Quote:

Mars will never really be "home" to us, if and when we make it there,
not even if we become the Martians, as Bradbury put it; we carry too
much of the Ocean in us for that to happen.

There's oceans on Mars, if we know where to look for them.
But I think there's a catch-22 for colonies on other planets.
If we can't learn to live on Earth in a sustainable way, will all
of her advantages, how are we going to build successful colonies
on other planets?

And once we ...do learn...how to live on Earth in a sustainable
way, it makes the need for colonies pretty much moot.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXVI (2005)

"We have found evidence consistent with a presently-existing
frozen body of water,with surface pack-ice, around +5º latitude
and 150º east longitude in southern Elysium. It measures about
800 km x 900 km and averages up to 45 m deep: similar
in size and depth to the North Sea."
http://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2005/pdf/1741.pdf

Belba Grubb...

Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 12:42 am

Guest

jonathan wrote:

Quote:

The eye of Katrina went right over my house in Florida. The first
time I experienced an eye.

Katrina was a bold little wench - she sent her eye right over the
National Hurricane Center. It was a Category 1 at that point, I think,
so you fairly lucky then, although not so later in the season.

Quote:

It was Wilma couple of weeks later
that still gives me the chills. ...
Andrew had an eye only 15 or 20 miles across while
at cat 5 speed, yet it caused $35 billion in damage.

Wilma was bad.

"Wilma has developed the dreaded pinhole eye," 6-7 nautical miles
across, per the NHC on October 18, 2005, at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al242005.discus.014.shtml?
This was early in its life cycle; I had thought small eyes always
meant intense hurricanes, but on looking it up just now, it "just"
signifies rapid fluctuations, which makes a forecaster's job a real
nightmare. It was either that storm or another 2005 storm, I forget
the intensity now, but it was a major hurricane at that point, that
had a 2-nm-wide eye at one point. That set a record.

The year 2005 was not a good one for anybody in the southeast, and you
didn't always have to be directly in the hurricane's path. I remember
Rita was pretty well inland and possibly just clearing Texas and
moving into the heartland, and we got 10 tornadoes that afternoon in
Tuscaloosa County, Alabama, that were attributed to Rita. I don't
really understand that because it's usually the NE quadrant of an
incoming hurricane that is at the most tornado risk (as you probably
know only too well, if you're near or on Florida's Gulf coast).

Some of our forum members, like the one who lived near Lake
Ponchetrain, definitely cleared out before Katrina came in. He
sustained a lot of damage, but was far enough inland and away from the
track to still have his house standing and in reparable condition.

Some people don't clear out because of sheer stupidity, but nowadays
with better public education, building codes, and so forth, I think
more people who get hurt or killed got blind-sided (nobody, including
the forecasters, expected the Category 5-strength storm surges along
the coast from Katrina, which had weakened 2 degrees in intensity
before coming in), or else they had a good reason to stay put (some
people on a Tolkien newsgroup I was on at the time, for instance, in
the Biloxi area who stayed because he worked at the hospital, which
was practically on the beach and did get flooded and kind of wrecked
but stayed up and running throughout, and she wouldn't leave him,
though he told her to and their house was only a couple blocks from
the hospital: I can't believe they both survived unharmed).

Quote:

At least until the plumbing starts honking, at 110 mph or so, when
the vacuum gets high enough to empty the pipes, then it's time
to worry.

Another bad sign is when the sliding doors and windows on a solidly
built and well protected (and shuttered) house start to hum.

Well, anyway, in Bermuda, they're welcoming Tropical Storm Bertha now
because of the rain. That storm is still around, and still perplexing
meteorologists: it may force some of them, if not to drink, then into
a relatively easy, low-pressure job...like earthquake prediction in
Southern California (BG). Very interesting tropical cyclone, Bertha,
and doubly so because it hasn't hurt anyone or racked up huge damages
anywhere. It is apparently intensifying again, and two of the major
models predict it will become a hurricane again, though the NHC doubts
it. Time will tell.

Barb
------------
It's the radar loop at this site http://www.hurricanehunters.com/ that
still gives me heartache today. However, they also have the absolutely
BEST hurricane photo ever taken, last year in the eye of Category Five
Felix: http://www.hurricanehunters.com/images/storms/2007/2007_felix.html

Belba Grubb...

Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 5:43 pm

Guest

In case anyone is interested, this loop of sea surface temperatures
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/atsst.gif shows
the upwelling Bertha caused, which was tremendous: very remarkable for
any hurricane, I think, especially a Category 1. Very interesting
tropical cyclone, and it's far from done yet, though Bermuda is
getting out of the clear now.

Barb
-----------
Bermuda is the right country for a jaded man to "loaf" in. There are
no harassments; the deep peace and quiet of the country sink into
one's body and bones and give his conscience a rest and chloroform the
legion of invisible small devils that are always trying to whitewash
his hair.
- Mark Twain, "Some Rambling Notes of an Idle Excursion"

jonathan...

Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 8:21 pm

Guest

"Jo Schaper" <jo345sch765aper at (no spam) s9ocket.net> wrote in message
news:AYmdnaylAYR5DefVnZ2dnUVZ_rzinZ2d at (no spam) posted.socketinternetservices...

Quote:

It usually is the safest thing to do. For reasons I'll try to illustrate below.

Quote:

Here in the Midwest, if we see twister on a storm track, we get the h out of
there by driving at a cross angle of direction if we can, or at least move
into the basement or into a ditch if one just spins up without more than a few
minutes' warning.

Well, are your twisters fifty miles across? And do they sit over
your house spinning away for two or three hours straight?

You have to understand, there is a very narrow window with
hurricanes with deciding whether to evacuate. You're more
likely to evacuate into the path of a hurricane if you decide
too early, when it's still far out to sea. Once you do know it's
hitting you, there is a rather short time to decide and go. As in minutes.
Since everyone in the city gets up and hops in their car at the very
same time. Taking every dollar from every ATM and every gallon
from every gas station in a matter of an hour or two. Panics are
funny things, they come out of nowhere and in minutes it's too late.
If you decide too late, you'll end up sitting it out in a traffic jam
on the highway when the storm hits, the worst possible outcome.

So the idea is to watch closely until the very minute you know
it's path and decide ...on the spot... if and where to evacuate.

But here's the thing most people don't understand about
the 'Big Ones' of 2005, the sixty mile wide (half a state wide)
eyes of Katrina and Wilma that frightened so many down here.
Wilma was moving at almost 25 knots with a Cat 3 plus wind field
almost the width of the state. An eye that size, speed and strength
shrinks the evacuation 'window' to a negative number
.....LITERALLY!!!

By the time it's close enough to know which way to run
it's too late. The storm has taken out every radio and tv
station near it, the power goes out all over and there's
just no way to get the information you need to make an
educated decision.

It's easy to say 'why didn't you take off?"

For instance, with Wilma, this was the advisory when the
storm was thought to be 30 hours from landfall. You get
up early Sunday morning to read about a hurricane that should
arrive Monday afternoon. This is the time one would have
to decide on evacuation. Given the following should
one start evacuating? And to where based on this?

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

CENTER FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT WILMA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
....AROUND 045/03. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. DYNAMICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SPREAD...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE NORTHERNMOST AND NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
.....AND THE NOGAPS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE
NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

AIR FORCE RECON OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE
OF WILMA...WHICH WAS DISRUPTED DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH
LAND...IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER THE EYE
IS STILL QUITE LARGE...ABOUT 65 N MI ACROSS...AND RAGGED.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE
HURRICANE EMERGED FROM NORTHEASTYUCATAN...AND THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KT .TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER
....AND SOME RESPECT FOR A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB....
BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT WILMA'S INNER CORE WILL BE ABLE
TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY REDEVELOP... AND THAT SOME
RESTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR
..... HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR AS WILMA NEARS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA... WHICH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT
OF DRIER LOWER-LEVEL AIR... WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING. SINCE
THE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH WILMA IS QUITE STRONG...THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT A
RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE BY ABOUT 48 HOURS.

That says, it probably won't even be a hurricance when it arrives, and it's
path is 'narrowed' to just the /five hundred mile swath/ between the Keys
and Orlando. Would you evacuate 800 miles to Tallahassee based on that
forecast? And even if you did, it's moving NE, the storm would be following
you all the way~

So, you go to bed and the latest forecast still has it as a weak Cat 1, at
about 85 knots. Then, you wake up Monday morning bright and early
at 5am and get this 'advisory'.

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
5 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

IN SPITE OF ITS VERY LARGE RAGGED EYE...WILMA HAS
CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND BASED ON DOPPLER AND
AIRCRAFT DATA...IT IS NOW A HIGH-END CAT. 3...110-KT...
HURRICANE. AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE AS HIGH
AS 135 KT EARLIER.... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL..... AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...
WILMA SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
STORM WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT INTERACTS WITH
AN INTENSE BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.

ACCELERATION IS FORECAST AS WILMA IS BECOMING CAUGHT
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS

THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES WILMA INLAND IN A FEW HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/WILMA.shtml

And ....overnight....it's now at 135 knots? And landfall in a FEW HOURS.
Sheez. It's too late now!

And this is the point where most sources of info start shutting down.
No tv, no radio, no internet....just the wind and your imagination.
Will it turn, will the 'ragged eye' become better formed? Are the
evacuation routes clear? You have no idea about anything
after about this point.

With Wilma I got up, saw that new advisory and made up the
bunker, then thought to myself "I've got about a half hour before
the power goes out, just enough time to cook a nice big breakfast."
I distinctly rememeber the power went out just as I was flipping
the eggs ....just in time, and I thought to myself quite self satisfied
.....been there...done that.

The reason I didn't leave with Andrew was a clear and correct
decision based on overall safety. I could either go out and steal
gasoline from some car in the midst of a city-wide panic where looters
are generally shot, then try to run the State Police blockades at the
entrances to all the highways (they close 'em when the traffic
backs up) and hope I don't' get stuck in traffic and hope the storm
doesn't change track and hope I don't get in a nasty car wreck
from all the pannicky maniacs carrying guns...or I could sit home, get
comfy, make a little bunker in the living room and a nice last meal
before the power goes out and....just wait for it.

The decision was not even close. Trying to run was, and
usually is, the more dangerous decision for many reasons.

Of course if someone is right on the coast in a flood zone
you have no choice but to evacuate. But that's the small
minority of people, most only have the wind to worry about.
And wind doesn't kill a lot of people in hurricanes.

Quote:

When you live in twister country, it's hard to figure why people would rather
ride out a hurricane than running away. It's like people who stay in their
homes when it is dead certain that a flood is coming, it's not a flash flood,
and you have days or at least a couple of hours of warning. Stuff is stuff,
people. It's a pain to lose it, but you can always get more stuff.

There are very few people with so few friends/acquaintances that they won't
take you in for a day or two after an intense storm, and that's why people set
up public shelters.

There are no storm cellars in Florida, no basements at all. And we save
the favors from relatives and friends for...after the hurricane.
It's the aftermath, not the night of, where friends and family
come to the rescue.

Quote:

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