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Science Forum Index » Geology - Meteorology Forum » Any Warming Over The Last 10 Years Is Statistically...
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| 0Z0NB... |
 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 7:54 pm |
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Bad luck for our alarmist friend Garnaut!
July 7 2008
The Rudd Government's climate guru, Ross Garnaut, says we must make huge
sacrifices to stop a warming that actually seems to have stopped in
1998.
But to be fair, he decided for his latest Draft Report to check whether
this failure of the world to warm changed everything, and asked two
Australian National University econometricians to check. They reported
back that this didn't disprove the models predicting huge warming:
Viewed from the perspective of 30 or 50 years ago, the temperatures
recorded in most of the last decade lie above the confidence band
produced by any model that does not allow for a warming trend.
David Stockwell is not impressed, and sums up the discussion of that
paper:
There seems to be a consensus that Garnaut does not garner as much
support from the ANU paper as he suggests I am not making any
accusations, but some of the choices of data and tests make a
conventionally non-significant difference significant. Such choices need
justification. Despite concluding that "the temperatures recorded in
most of the last decade lie above the confidence level produced by any
model that does not allow for a warming trend", the study also reveals
that the warming is statistically almost indistinguishable from a random
walk.
This shows just how weak the case is for CO2 caused global warming not
being due to a spurious regression.
The questions raised about the paper include: why wasn't more reliable
satellite data used; why wasn't monthly data used rather than calender
year averages that left out the most interesting 5 per cent of data;
were the right questions asked? More at the link.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/garnaut_shouldnt_be_sure_of_his_1998_answer/
--
Warmest Regards
Bonzo
"Let me say it plainly: The environmental movement has been taken over
by anti-capitalist radicals who are using it to wage war against
capitalism and campaign for liberal Democrats. Protecting the
environment is now number three, or lower, on their list of priorities."
Joe Bast, President, Heartland Institute, One-time Ardent
Environmentalist, Has seen it from both sides. |
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