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Bret Cahill...
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 5:52 pm
Guest
From 1860 to 1890 the U. S. steel industry increased in size by 1000%
each decade.

The steel wasn't being exported. It was consumed in the U. S.

Trade had little to do with U. S. growth.

If the U. S. really is in a permanent recession as many believe, then
the Chinese will simply sell more stuff to themselves and, like the
American economy of the industrial revolution, the economy of China
will simply continue at nearly an 8% growth rate.

In other words, the Chinese economy will pass the American economy in
size in a mere 18 years.


Bret Cahill
Immortalist...
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 5:56 pm
Guest
On Jun 26, 8:52 pm, Bret Cahill <BretCah... at (no spam) aol.com> wrote:
Quote:
From 1860 to 1890 the U. S. steel industry increased in size by 1000%
each decade.

The steel wasn't being exported. It was consumed in the U. S.

Trade had little to do with U. S. growth.

If the U. S. really is in a permanent recession as many believe, then
the Chinese will simply sell more stuff to themselves and, like the
American economy of the industrial revolution, the economy of China
will simply continue at nearly an 8% growth rate.

In other words, the Chinese economy will pass the American economy in
size in a mere 18 years.

Bret Cahill

Then it will decline like any other major economy and wealth will
migrate to the best deal thereafter which will do the same, whats the
big deal? Things get old they build new stuff somewhere else.
turtoni...
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 5:59 pm
Guest
On Jun 26, 11:56 pm, Immortalist <reanimater_2... at (no spam) yahoo.com> wrote:
Quote:
On Jun 26, 8:52 pm, Bret Cahill <BretCah... at (no spam) aol.com> wrote:





From 1860 to 1890 the U. S. steel industry increased in size by 1000%
each decade.

The steel wasn't being exported.  It was consumed in the U. S.

Trade had little to do with U. S. growth.

If the U. S. really is in a permanent recession as many believe, then
the Chinese will simply sell more stuff to themselves and, like the
American economy of the industrial revolution, the economy of China
will simply continue at nearly an 8% growth rate.

In other words, the Chinese economy will pass the American economy in
size in a mere 18 years.

Bret Cahill

Then it will decline like any other major economy and wealth will
migrate to the best deal thereafter which will do the same, whats the
big deal? Things get old they build new stuff somewhere else.

Perhaps China wont mind picking up the tab if the shit hits the fan.
Yeah right...

The Hong Kong infection.

Ok mybad. God save the Queen.
Bret Cahill...
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 6:00 pm
Guest
Quote:
From 1860 to 1890 the U. S. steel industry increased in size by 1000%
each decade.

The steel wasn't being exported. �It was consumed in the U. S.

Trade had little to do with U. S. growth.

If the U. S. really is in a permanent recession as many believe, then
the Chinese will simply sell more stuff to themselves and, like the
American economy of the industrial revolution, the economy of China
will simply continue at nearly an 8% growth rate.

In other words, the Chinese economy will pass the American economy in
size in a mere 18 years.

Then it will decline like any other major economy

You don't seem to understand.

In the meantime they will control all the resourses including oil.

You will be pulling a rickshaw if you want some ramen noodles.


Bret Cahill
turtoni...
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 6:17 pm
Guest
On Jun 27, 12:00 am, Bret Cahill <BretCah... at (no spam) aol.com> wrote:
Quote:
From 1860 to 1890 the U. S. steel industry increased in size by 1000%
each decade.

The steel wasn't being exported. �It was consumed in the U. S..

Trade had little to do with U. S. growth.

If the U. S. really is in a permanent recession as many believe, then
the Chinese will simply sell more stuff to themselves and, like the
American economy of the industrial revolution, the economy of China
will simply continue at nearly an 8% growth rate.

In other words, the Chinese economy will pass the American economy in
size in a mere 18 years.
Then it will decline like any other major economy

You don't seem to understand.

In the meantime they will control all the resourses including oil.

You will be pulling a rickshaw if you want some ramen noodles.

Bret Cahill

so how do you account for a turn around from communism?

they've been "infected" with capitialism and invested in that future.

are you imaging they will have bigger houses and more shit to fill
their houses?

so? isn't that a huge step from the concerns of communism?

they'll be hitting the same problems we have...

melting pots.
Bret Cahill...
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 6:41 pm
Guest
Quote:
From 1860 to 1890 the U. S. steel industry increased in size by 1000%
each decade.

The steel wasn't being exported. �It was consumed in the U. S.

Trade had little to do with U. S. growth.

If the U. S. really is in a permanent recession as many believe,

You've said this before but never provided a cite for this,

Not that the framers made a big issue of it but whatever happened to
rugged individualism?

Google Soros + recession.

. . .

Quote:
then
the Chinese will simply sell more stuff to themselves and, like the
American economy of the industrial revolution, the economy of China
will simply continue at nearly an 8% growth rate.

In other words, the Chinese economy will pass the American economy in
size in a mere 18 years.

If true, so what?

You'll be pulling a rickshaw.

It's green and you are too stupid to do anything else.


Bret Cahill
Joe...
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 6:53 pm
Guest
On Jun 27, 12:52 pm, Bret Cahill <BretCah... at (no spam) aol.com> wrote:
Quote:
From 1860 to 1890 the U. S. steel industry increased in size by 1000%
each decade.

The steel wasn't being exported.  It was consumed in the U. S.

Trade had little to do with U. S. growth.

If the U. S. really is in a permanent recession as many believe, then
the Chinese will simply sell more stuff to themselves and, like the
American economy of the industrial revolution, the economy of China
will simply continue at nearly an 8% growth rate.


Quote:

In other words, the Chinese economy will pass the American economy in
size in a mere 18 years.

Bret Cahill

Thats the prediction, but I strongly disagree and am in a small
minority that believe China will hit a brick wall as most emerging
economies don't go straight from poverty to prosperity. And here is
my reasoning - What is fueling Chinese growth? It is cheap labor,
nothing more nothing less. So what happens to China when its labor
cost are no longer competetive with other countries like Mexico, the
Phillipines, Thailand, etc? Those jobs go elsewhere. Currently
China's inflation rate is 8% and Vietnam's about 20%. Hard to see an
economy going straight up with a serious inflation problem.

America has alot of problems that can be turned around with a new
government, but one thing America does well is commercialize new
technologies where wealth is truly created.
turtoni...
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 6:59 pm
Guest
Hong Kong the Tojan Horse.

HTH.

swallow your US pride...

let the brits take the blame..

more shit to buy and sell.
Larry...
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 11:12 pm
Guest
In article
<1278f3be-679a-4e9e-8d8c-64114f861d4b at (no spam) a32g2000prf.googlegroups.com>,
Bret Cahill <BretCahill at (no spam) aol.com> wrote:

Quote:
From 1860 to 1890 the U. S. steel industry increased in size by 1000%
each decade.

The steel wasn't being exported. It was consumed in the U. S.

Trade had little to do with U. S. growth.

If the U. S. really is in a permanent recession as many believe,

You've said this before but never provided a cite for this, even when
asked for one. Why is that?

Quote:
then
the Chinese will simply sell more stuff to themselves and, like the
American economy of the industrial revolution, the economy of China
will simply continue at nearly an 8% growth rate.

In other words, the Chinese economy will pass the American economy in
size in a mere 18 years.

If true, so what?
The Trucker...
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 11:45 pm
Guest
On Thu, 26 Jun 2008 20:56:52 -0700, Immortalist wrote:

Quote:
On Jun 26, 8:52 pm, Bret Cahill <BretCah... at (no spam) aol.com> wrote:
From 1860 to 1890 the U. S. steel industry increased in size by 1000%
each decade.

The steel wasn't being exported. It was consumed in the U. S.

Trade had little to do with U. S. growth.

If the U. S. really is in a permanent recession as many believe, then
the Chinese will simply sell more stuff to themselves and, like the
American economy of the industrial revolution, the economy of China
will simply continue at nearly an 8% growth rate.

In other words, the Chinese economy will pass the American economy in
size in a mere 18 years.

Bret Cahill

Then it will decline like any other major economy and wealth will
migrate to the best deal thereafter which will do the same, whats the
big deal? Things get old they build new stuff somewhere else.

That is actually a pretty good observation. It seems that is the way it
is. I am of the opinion that the people in power take far too much out of
the economy in the form of economic rent. And that is what kills the
economy. Then the cycle starts somewhere else, just like you say.

I always recommend Asimov and the Foundation series. It is sci fi but
very much on the case for the rise and fall of societies.

--
"I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers
of society but the people themselves; and
if we think them not enlightened enough to
exercise their control with a wholesome
discretion, the remedy is not to take it from
them, but to inform their discretion by
education." - Thomas Jefferson
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