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Science Forum Index » Geology - Meteorology Forum » Jube 2008 30-Day Forecast...
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 Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 11:01 am |
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JUNE 2008 30-DAY OUTLOOK
415 PM EDT Fri. May 30, 2008
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
The strength of negative sea surface temperatures along the Equator in
the east-central Pacific has decreased. The atmospheric circulation
across the tropical Pacific still indicate a cold episode, with
enhanced low-level easterlies and suppressed convection in the central
equatorial Pacific. The current episode will have little impact on the
forecast for June.
NAO is currently in a positive phase and is forecast to trend towards
negative during the first 14 days of the month. The PNA is positive
and is forecast to trend negative during the same period. Models are
in good agreement with the 500-HPA pattern for June. A trough is
forecast near the West coast. A ridge is forecast across the southern
part of the nation. Heights are forecast to be below normal across the
northern Rockies and above normal across the Northeast and mid-
Atlantic.
Below normal temperatures are expected across the Northwest and the
northern Rockies. The probability of above normal temperatures in this
region is 56 percent. Above normal temperatures are expected across
the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The probability of
above normal temperatures occurring across this area is 56 percent.
Another area of above normal temperatures will be the Northeast and
mid-Atlantic. The probability of above normal temperatures across
this area is 55 percent. The remainder of the nation is expected to
average near normal with no significant deviation from normal
climatology.
The CFS and the CAS soil moisture analog tool indicate below normal
precipitation is expected across the southern portion of the nation,
the Rockies to the West coast with the exception with the Northwest.
The probability of below normal precipitation in this area is 55
percent. Above normal precipitation is expected across northern
Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, the mid-Atlantic and the
Northeast. This was indicated by local soil conditions. The
probability of above normal precipitation in this region is 56
percent. The remainder of the nation is expected to be near normal
with no significant deviation from climatology.
Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx |
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