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Luis A. Afonso...
Posted: Sat May 24, 2008 2:02 pm
Guest
WORMTOMSKY EXPRESS
The HYSTERICAL claim from the IMBECILE DUO that?s impossible two different Parameters estimation to have two equal HYPOTHESE TEST DECISIONS is absolutely WRONG.
As long as I decide to give up I assure you, the Readers, that I will inform you what the advantages (and drawbacks), are associated to Monte Carlo Method when applied to Statistical Decision.
The IMBECILE DUO is completely incompetent to give a reason by which (quotation):
*** The 95% Afonso confidence intervals are based on him assuming that the population median is zero. Therefore, the confidence interval for the population median is [0, 0] = {0} for all confidence levels and sample sizes. The results Afonso presents have the property that for certain median values known to be untrue, the probability of coverage is 100% rather than 0%. For example, for n = 5, all nonzero medians between -2.012 and +2.012 have 100% coverage. That is, they are contained in the Afonso confidence intervals for every sample. Because of these poor properties, I recommend that the Afonso confidence intervals never be used. ***
I will respond AGAIN, point by point, and in order, to swap up the absurdities they don?t stop to say
__1__All Test Statistics is based on H0 is true: here is that Cauchy Distribution has zero median
__2__The Confidence Interval is [0, 0] THE TWO IMBECILES STATED is a complete absurdity: every test supposes the parameter value, even being a constant is faced, is taken as an INSTRUMENTALLY variable which experimental evidence is just the observed parameter value. By this expression one have a random variable estimated from the sample showing a a value only exceptionally EQUAL TO THE PARAMETER´s ONE.
__3__Because the probability of an event is (by a majority lot of statisticians) experimentally evident by its frequency the so-called coverage interval IS NOT at all 0% or 100%, AS THE IMBECILE DUO SAYS: it is, simply and directly, given by the frequency attached to it. The example [-2.012, +2.012] covers exactly 95% of the simulated (at random) as few as 4 ´000´000 Cauchy samples of size 5. I?m sure because I observed, if someone doubts, DO CHECK IT!
__4__ALL READERS ARE INVITED TO JOIN THE LOT OF STATISTICIANS THAT USE MONTE CARLO IN TEST HYPOTHESES DECISIONS.
__5__The fundamental difference between the Before -Lillefors Era and the nowadays is striking: From the concept that the confidence interval is based on its ESTIMATE FROM ONE ONLY SAMPLE, TOGHETER WITH THE KNOWLEDGE OF THE TEST STATISTICS EXPRESSION, resulting, consequently, the paradigm: one sample, one C.I., the evolution turns up to be if I know the probability, I CAN ATTACH TO WHATEVER INTERVAL OF THE EMPIRICAL TEST STATISTICS THE RESPECTIVE RELATIVE FREQUENCY ( PROBABILITY).OBTAINED THROUGH MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS. The degree of approximation Relative Frequency toward Probability is given by the Dvoretzky- Kiefer -Wolfowitz inequality.
Luis Amaral Afonso [The Moderators Destroyer]
Luis A. Afonso...
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 1:09 am
Guest
Perry
The * problem * is simply that:
The IMBECILE DUO state that by Monte Carlo simulations one cannot get Hypotheses Tests DECISIONS. It´s WRONG-
In fact the chain of facts is simple:
__1__The DKW theorem states that the Empirical Distribution of a test statistics can so close we want to de Distribution Function, DF__2__ The test DF is sufficient to get Critical Values defining the NO REJECTION REGION, __3__What allows us to attain the Test Decision by Monte Carlo simulation : not to have sufficient evidence to reject H0, or, the alternative: to have sufficient evidence to reject it.
Luis Amaral Afonso
Luis A. Afonso...
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 2:17 am
Guest
FROM THE WEB:
*** Exact Statistics
Exact statistics can be useful in situations where the asymptotic assumptions are not met, and so the asymptotic p-values are not close approximations for the true p-values. Standard asymptotic methods involve the assumption that the test statistic follows a particular distribution when the sample size is sufficiently large. When the sample size is not large, asymptotic results may not be valid, with the asymptotic p-values differing perhaps substantially from the exact p-values,***
Luis
...
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 5:31 am
Guest
Luis,

I think most of these fruitless threads could be avoided if you would clearly state what kind of problem you are referring to. I don't know, but it may be a language problem as well. For example you should clearly say, which hypothesis H0 and H1 you are testing, which is the test statistic and for what reason this statistic should work etc. Same holds for the related problem of interval estimation. If you instead just provide some stubbed postings with just some numbers it is not clear what it is about.

perry

On Sat, 24 May 2008 20:02:41 EDT
"Luis A. Afonso" <licas_ at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote:
WORMTOMSKY EXPRESS
The HYSTERICAL claim from the IMBECILE DUO that?s impossible two different Parameters estimation to have two equal HYPOTHESE TEST DECISIONS is absolutely WRONG.
As long as I decide to give up I assure you, the Readers, that I will inform you what the advantages (and drawbacks), are associated to Monte Carlo Method when applied to Statistical Decision.
The IMBECILE DUO is completely incompetent to give a reason by which (quotation):
*** The 95% Afonso confidence intervals are based on him assuming that the population median is zero. Therefore, the confidence interval for the population median is [0, 0] = {0} for all confidence levels and sample sizes.. The results Afonso presents have the property that for certain median values known to be untrue, the probability of coverage is 100% rather than 0%. For example, for n = 5, all nonzero medians between -2.012 and +2.012 have 100% coverage. That is, they are contained in the Afonso confidence intervals for every sample. Because of these poor properties, I recommend that the Afonso confidence intervals never be used. ***
I will respond AGAIN, point by point, and in order, to swap up the absurdities they don?t stop to say
__1__All Test Statistics is based on H0 is true: here is that Cauchy Distribution has zero median
__2__The Confidence Interval is [0, 0] THE TWO IMBECILES STATED is a complete absurdity: every test supposes the parameter value, even being a constant is faced, is taken as an INSTRUMENTALLY variable which experimental evidence is just the observed parameter value. By this expression one have a random variable estimated from the sample showing a a value only exceptionally EQUAL TO THE PARAMETER´s ONE.
__3__Because the probability of an event is (by a majority lot of statisticians) experimentally evident by its frequency the so-called coverage interval IS NOT at all 0% or 100%, AS THE IMBECILE DUO SAYS: it is, simply and directly, given by the frequency attached to it. The example [-2.012, +2.012] covers exactly 95% of the simulated (at random) as few as 4 ´000´000 Cauchy samples of size 5. I?m sure because I observed, if someone doubts, DO CHECK IT!
__4__ALL READERS ARE INVITED TO JOIN THE LOT OF STATISTICIANS THAT USE MONTE CARLO IN TEST HYPOTHESES DECISIONS.
__5__The fundamental difference between the Before -Lillefors Era and the nowadays is striking: From the concept that the confidence interval is based on its ESTIMATE FROM ONE ONLY SAMPLE, TOGHETER WITH THE KNOWLEDGE OF THE TEST STATISTICS EXPRESSION, resulting, consequently, the paradigm: one sample, one C.I., the evolution turns up to be if I know the probability, I CAN ATTACH TO WHATEVER INTERVAL OF THE EMPIRICAL TEST STATISTICS THE RESPECTIVE RELATIVE FREQUENCY ( PROBABILITY).OBTAINED THROUGH MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS. The degree of approximation Relative Frequency toward Probability is given by the Dvoretzky- Kiefer -Wolfowitz inequality.
Luis Amaral Afonso [The Moderators Destroyer]


--
perry jones
Jack Tomsky...
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 9:13 am
Guest
Afonso posed the following problem in statistical inference. Given that the population median of a Cauchy distribution is known to be zero, find a 95% confidence interval for the population median. It took him 400,000 simulations for each sample size to come up with the wrong answers. It took me zero simulations and zero seconds to come up with the confidence interval [0, 0] = {0} for all sample sizes and confidence levels.

Afonso's proposed confidence intervals, which are fixed for all samples of a given sample size, have the unfortunate property of covering certain known false values of the population median 100% of the time. What this demonstrates is that MC cannot compensate for a lack of knowledge of elementary statistics; in particular, the definition of confidence intervals.

Jack (moderator)
Luis A. Afonso...
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 9:41 am
Guest
What the IMBECILE DUO did state is that EVERY CAUCHY SAMPLE HAS A MEDIAN EQUAL TO ZERO therefore is futile to find out Confidence Intervals in what concerns such distribution samples,
is [0, 0] !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And the reason one should call them IMBECILE is completely understandable.

Luis Amaral Afonso [The Moderator Destroyer]
Luis A. Afonso...
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 10:13 am
Guest
Simple Questions:
___1___What was the goal Herbert Lilliefors to calculate the Kolmogorov - Smirnov´s sample distribution quantiles in the case that the parameters are estimated from the sample under GOF test?
___2___Why so many Statisticians have their p-values lists obtained by Monte Carlo simulations ACCEPTED TO PUBLISH IN THE MOST CREDITED REVUES, since the 60´s?
___3___Why so many papers do concern to solve the problem that (generally speaking) ASYMPTOTIC CRITICAL VALUES are absolutely of no worth, unrealistic, mistaken, when one are dealing with low, even moderate, sample sizes?
___4___A striking episode relative to the GOF Jarque- Bera Test, JB = f(S, K). The inventor * admitted by flair * that summing up 2 squares of Test Statistics that each one was (he sought) normal standard he obtained a Distribution that was Chi - Square 2 df, for infinite sized samples. But he was wrong a lot, the reason was simple to preview:: the Statistics * estimators * S and K do not converge to N(0, 1) because they depend on the estimators of the central moments (of order 2, 3, 4). In consequence Skewness and Excess Kurtosis are, in fact, biased (not surprisingly any carefully educated statistician). AND A BEAUTIFUL THEORY DID FALL ON EARTH.
___5___One can only ascribe to PURE PARANOIA the insistence Jack Tomsky to add (his unknown, obscure and stupid person) to the Dvoretzky - Kiefer - Wolfowitz inequality. A RECURRENT PARANOIA.
Time to see a Doctor, I advise.
Luis Amaral Afonso [The Moderator Destroyer]
John Smith...
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 11:03 am
Guest
Perry,

In Adumbostistics, it is not necessary to specify null and alternative hypotheses. A case in point is given by Luis Amaral Afonso in THREAD: An RNG test by the DKW formula THREAD STARTED: Jul 14 2007, 5:56 pm

He makes a complicated simulation whose goal is to determine if a sequence of random numbers is random. He arbitrarily chooses a test statistic (without reference to a null hypothesis) and arbitrarily (without reference to a tail area) chooses a "critical value" of 1E6.

He says right there in the first post (where "LAST VALUE" is his "test statistic"): "SINCE THIS LAST VALUE IS LESS THAN 1E6 we conclude that there is no EVIDENCE that the *numbers FACTORY* is working erratically."

When I asked him whether 1E6 corresponds to a 1% critical value, he could not respond. Eventually he admitted that the choice of 1E6 is something he made up. But he still insisted that what he was doing constituted a statistical test.

So, Perry, this is an example of Adumbostistics. You don't need null and alternative hypotheses, nor do you need true critical values. Isn't it amazing that all this has been invented by Luis Amaral Afonso???

John ` Smith
licas_ at (no spam) hotmail.com...
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 2:59 pm
Guest
On 25 Maio, 22:03, John Smith <jsmith_... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote:
Perry,

In Adumbostistics, it is not necessary to specify null and alternative hypotheses.  A case in point is given by Luis Amaral Afonso in THREAD: An RNG test by the DKW formula  THREAD STARTED:  Jul 14 2007, 5:56 pm

He makes a complicated simulation whose goal is to determine if a sequence of random numbers is random.  He arbitrarily chooses a test statistic (without reference to a null hypothesis) and arbitrarily (without reference to a tail area) chooses a "critical value" of 1E6.  

He says right there in the first post (where "LAST VALUE" is his "test statistic"): "SINCE THIS LAST VALUE IS LESS THAN 1E6 we conclude that there is no EVIDENCE that the *numbers FACTORY* is working erratically."

When I asked him whether 1E6 corresponds to a 1% critical value, he could not respond.  Eventually he admitted that the choice of 1E6 is something he made up.  But he still insisted that what he was doing constituted a statistical test.

So, Perry, this is an example of Adumbostistics.  You don't need null and alternative hypotheses, nor do you need true critical values.  Isn't it amazing that all this has been invented by Luis Amaral Afonso???  

John ` Smith

I´m Luis Afonso
This guy is lying . My checking procedure is based on
the DKW inequality , a result that is clled the Fundamental Theorem of
Statistics and that he didn´t met before tell him. last year. He don´t
know, he refuses to learn a very simple matter: the distribution
function of whatever statistical test is liable to obtain
by simulation. The DKW (please, check) uniquality say
us how close are this simulated Distribution from the
rigorous one (if this exist). Function of the number of thse
simulations (NS) and the maximum (absolute) difference , d, one can
know the maximum probability p
the difference occurs. My *procedure test* is based on this 1960´s DKW
theorem. In consequence I evaluate the minimum N that a given
difference occurs,
fixing d and p, N is evaluted, As I know U(0,1) fractiles I´m able to
compare N with ND (which´s arbitrary, and that the two IMBECILES make
confusion with a sample size!!!) , As long as I attain a d when N<NS
the machine is behaving properly
Luis
John Smith...
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 3:56 pm
Guest
boohoo Luis Amaral Afonso says I'm lying.

If so, what was the tail area for your "critical value" of 1E6? Hmmm???

Your conclusion from your DKW "test" was
"SINCE THIS LAST VALUE IS LESS THAN 1E6 we conclude that there is no EVIDENCE that the *numbers FACTORY* is working erratically."

Now, Luis, is this test at the 1%, 5%, or 10% level?????

YOU CANNOT SAY!!!! BWAHAHAHAHA!!!

But that's the essence of Adumbostistics, isn't it?

John Smith
 
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