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Science Forum Index » Geology - Earthquakes Forum » 03:47...
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| Weatherlawyer... |
 Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 5:37 pm |
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12th May 03:47 2008.
Quote: http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html
Virtually unforecastable as far as I know. But fortunately we have a
crib:
7th Feb 03:44; 14th Feb 03:34; 21st Feb 03:31. All very similar.
I ran the commentary for the first of those spells in with that of the
commentary for the previous one. Never mind, it is well worth reading
as even as I speak, thundery and wintery weather is crushing North
American crops at a very delicate time.
Here is a link:
Quote: http://groups.google.com/group/alt.talk.weather/browse_frm/month/2008-02
So if that High over Greenland persists and that Low just below it
moves up to Scandinavia like it is supposed to and like it seems to be
doing....
Not a good year for silage if anyone in Britain knows any farmers.
Even the hay is going to produce abortions -though there is a small
window in the middle of June. Otherwise it is a wet summer and we will
have to rely on other people getting super-cyclones and large
magnitude earthquakes.
Which they surely will. |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 9:04 am |
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OKLAHOMA CITY (Reuters) - At least 19 people were killed in Missouri
and Oklahoma when tornadoes and violent storms ripped through the
central and southeastern United States, devastating neighborhoods and
injuring hundreds, officials said on Sunday.
The National Weather Service reported six deaths in Oklahoma and 13 in
Missouri but those tolls may rise.
http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-33522320080511 |
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| Skywise... |
| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 12:58 am |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 7:10 am |
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Mississippi's water
When the river runs high
Bursts its banks and washes all the sins away
As it washes to the ocean
Every muddy thing
In a very little time
Before it will calm down
When something goes wrong
It's so hard to admit it
No one will admit it
Nobody wants to know
It pushes an High to the Delta
Over three thousand miles long
And throws out to the Gulf, a force so strong
Fixed so tight to the ground below
That you can't even see
And in so little time
So little time to be
When something goes wrong
You shall have to admit it
You will have to admit what
You do not want the world to see
But when you see that High
Running down the Mississippi
Though it's apt to confuse.
Because it is such an unusual sight
From the cold of Canada to the warmth of Mexico
Watch out for that High
Some people never see the world the way it runs
It's not their style
To be told
Some people never see the world how it aught to be
But like children they're longing to be told.
When something goes wrong
Who can admit it
Say that they shit it
Nobody wants to know
When something goes right
Well that's how it should be.
All caused by accident
That just accidentally got it right
You just get used to how it is supposed to be so right
Something so right
(Cribbed from Paul Simon.)
Quote: http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html
2008/05/12
5.1 M. 12:50 Kodiak Island region, Alaska.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 7:13 pm |
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On May 11, 8:04 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: OKLAHOMA CITY (Reuters) - At least 19 people were killed in Missouri
and Oklahoma when tornadoes and violent storms ripped through the
central and southeastern United States, devastating neighborhoods and
injuring hundreds, officials said on Sunday.
The National Weather Service reported six deaths in Oklahoma and 13 in
Missouri but those tolls may rise.
http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-33522320080511
SENECA, Mo. (AP) — More than a third of the 23 people killed by a
tornado that smashed parts of Oklahoma and Missouri over the weekend
died in cars, troubling experts who say vehicles are one of the worst
places to be during a twister.
About 100 people have died in U.S. twisters so far this year, the
worst toll in a decade, according to the National Weather Service, and
the danger has not passed yet. Tornado season typically peaks in the
spring and early summer, then again in the late fall.
This could also prove to be the busiest tornado season on record in
the United States, though the final figure on the number of twisters
is not yet in.
All together, at least 26 people died in Missouri, Oklahoma, Georgia
and Alabama after the severe storms erupted Saturday over the Southern
Plains and swept east.
According to data from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction
Center, 49 of the 705 deaths — or about 7 percent — attributed to
tornadoes from 1997 to 2007 were people who were in vehicles when the
storm struck.
"They can cover more ground than you can in your car, so unless you
know you are moving away from the tornado the best thing you can do is
find a strong structure," said National Weather Service meteorologist
Andy Foster.
The twister that struck Seneca and surrounding Newton County was
moving at 50 mph to 60 mph, Foster said. One car was found a half-mile
from the tornado track.
The U.S. death toll from tornadoes this year is the highest since 130
people were killed in 1998, according to the weather service. The
highest number of tornado-related deaths came in 1953, when 519 people
died.
To date this year, 858 tornadoes have been reported in the U.S.,
although that number probably includes numerous duplicate sightings of
the same twister.
Harold Brooks of the National Severe Storms Laboratory said the
highest number of tornadoes ever recorded through May 11 of any year
was in 1999, when 676 tornadoes were counted. Brooks said he expects
the number of confirmed tornadoes through mid-May of this year to end
up in the 650-to-700 range.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jW-BndswWuhgPAPXOK4Q6TCQsANQD90KG06G0 |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 5:43 pm |
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From a different thread:
May 12 03:47 May 20 02:11
Feb 21 03:31 Feb 29 02:18
By extrapolation the phase from May 5th to 12th resembles that of
February 14-21. Bit of a squeak
I know but interesting no less:
Feb 14 03:34 Feb 21 03:31 Feb 29 02:18
May 5 12:18 May 12 03:47 May 20 02:11
So now to go and look all that stuff up. What is striking is the brunt
of the bad stuff back in February was also centred on China. it's the
only time news about the weather permeates the bamboo curtain.
There is an high leaving the continent of North America by way of the
southern US states. Florida to N & S Carolina. I allowed it might be
another large quake in the Andreanof region -wherever that is (I can't
find it on a map.) But for all I know it could be an eruption in
Hawaii. There is a storm out in the NE Pacific at the moment.
I can't make up my mind. Perhaps that means I don't know? See for
yourselves:
>http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 10:26 pm |
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On May 15, 4:43 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
There were three lunar phase in February that were at more or less the
same time.
They somehow induced weather spells in China the produced intense
cold. I didn't have any weather data sites for the region. And going
by comment on this site given elsewhere:
Quote: http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts/ASEA00.GIF I still don't.
So, is there anything in the record for Britain? You'd have a problem
sorting it out from here: >http://www.climate-uk.com There is nothing
cohesive that immediately stands out.
There again, I suppose water doesn't just drop from the sky.
And other people's weather from totally different climes has an effect
on us. As do seismic events and the like. It's a thankless and
difficult task to get it all sorted. And I think it impossible to
accomplish anything without divine help.
So why if I am getting help from above is he so meagre with the people
who really need it at the moment? It's enough to turn you off
religion. And yet we know from the way that things work, there has to
be a creator.
Is he angry with us over something? Some forgotten slight that we
didn't even mean? Our world wars and nuclear wars and all that? Maybe
it's the way we are treating the planet?
It couldn't possibly be due to the measure of respect we pay him. |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 10:10 pm |
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Odd the number of storms (tropical depressions = gales in this case)
that have similar times and paths even strengths, this year. Take TDs
0 4 and 5 here:
Quote: http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm.
Odd too that the NEIC list seemed to give no hint of them due. Or did
it? The dual quakes that so neatly fall into the category of
aftershocks in contemporary geo-physics, mask the chronology of other
quakes.
Maybe there is a lot more to it than mere timing. That'd be a pity. Or
more likely a godsend. |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 2:25 am |
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On May 16, 9:10 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote:
Odd too that the NEIC list seemed to give no hint of them due. Or did
it? The dual quakes that so neatly fall into the category of
aftershocks in contemporary geo-physics, mask the chronology of other
quakes.
5.4 2008/05/16 11:07 SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.5 2008/05/16 05:26 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.1 2008/05/16 03:34 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.3 2008/05/15 22:19 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
Take out the two Chinese ones that match (and ordinarily would advise
of a cessation of meteorological hostilities) and we have something in
the region of 13 hours time difference: 16th 11:07; 15th 22:19.
And that it seems gives us warning that a gale is due and it will not
yet develop into a storm. Perhaps never. We'll have to wait and see.
Quote: Maybe there is a lot more to it than mere timing. That'd be a pity. Or
more likely a godsend.
There are plenty of indicators in there that may even indicate the
likely locations even paths of these things.
That would be nice.
Or to put it another way it would say a lot more for a loving creator
than looking at the news would lead one to believe:
Huge turnout' for Myanmar vote.
The referendum was held as scheduled despite the cyclone devastation
in other areas [AFP]
A referendum on a new constitution held last weekend in Myanmar has
been approved by 92 per cent of voters, the country's state media has
reported.
It said there was a 99 per cent turnout for the vote, held in areas
not affected by the cyclone. The announcement on Myanmar state
television came as the forecast for survivors of the cyclone is
getting increasingly bleak.
Relief supplies still have not reached the people who need them most
and now bad weather is threatening aid distribution.
The military government's decision to press ahead with the May 10
poll, a week after the deadly cyclone hit, was sharply criticised by
aid agencies who said the government should instead be concentrating
its resources on helping cyclone survivors and preventing disease.
Regions devastated by the cyclone, are set to vote on May 24, even
though the United Nations estimates that around two million people are
still in desperate need of food, water and shelter.
Myanmar's government has said 66,000 are dead or missing from the
cyclone, but the Red Cross has said it believes the death toll could
be in excess of 100,000.
The proposed charter will widen military powers [EPA]
The new constitution, which took 14 years to draft, has been heavily
backed by the military government and state media.
It says the 194-page document will form the basis for democratic
elections to be held sometime in 2010.
Al Jazeera correspondent Tony Cheng, who crossed secretly into the
Myanmar border town of Myawaddy during the Saturday's vote, found few
people who had read the constitution or supported it.
Many people he spoke to said they planned to put an X in the 'No'
box.
Critics have denounced the constitution as a sham, designed only to
institutionalise the military grip on power.
Under its terms the military will be guaranteed a quarter of all seats
in a future parliament, while another clause allows the president to
hand over all power to the military in a state of emergency.
Activists who have spent time in jail because of their opposition to
the military government will be barred from standing for election
because of their criminal records.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/49A01929-56A1-4079-94FA-41854F645B35.htm
Elsewhere it has been reported, the victims of the cyclone have been
moved to concentration camps. |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 6:01 pm |
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On 16 May, 13:25, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) gmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On May 16, 9:10 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Odd too that the NEIC list seemed to give no hint of them due. Or did
it? The dual quakes that so neatly fall into the category of
aftershocks in contemporary geo-physics, mask the chronology of other
quakes.
5.4 2008/05/16 11:07 SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.5 2008/05/16 05:26 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.1 2008/05/16 03:34 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.3 2008/05/15 22:19 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
Take out the two Chinese ones that match (and ordinarily would advise
of a cessation of meteorological hostilities) and we have something in
the region of 13 hours time difference: 16th 11:07; 15th 22:19.
And that it seems gives us warning that a gale is due and it will not
yet develop into a storm. Perhaps never. We'll have to wait and see.
Looks like I am wrong there.
TD 05 -Halong, has turned into or is about to turn into a hurricane
for a day or so. It only just breaks in as a Cat 1 but even so it has
more strength than I would have given it. |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 7:00 pm |
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On 17 May, 05:01, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On 16 May, 13:25, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) gmail.com> wrote:
On May 16, 9:10 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Odd too that the NEIC list seemed to give no hint of them due. Or did
it? The dual quakes that so neatly fall into the category of
aftershocks in contemporary geo-physics, mask the chronology of other
quakes.
5.4 2008/05/16 11:07 SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.5 2008/05/16 05:26 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.1 2008/05/16 03:34 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.3 2008/05/15 22:19 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
Take out the two Chinese ones that match (and ordinarily would advise
of a cessation of meteorological hostilities) and we have something in
the region of 13 hours time difference: 16th 11:07; 15th 22:19.
And that it seems gives us warning that a gale is due and it will not
yet develop into a storm. Perhaps never. We'll have to wait and see.
Looks like I am wrong there.
TD 05 -Halong, has turned into or is about to turn into a hurricane
for a day or so. It only just breaks in as a Cat 1 but even so it has
more strength than I would have given it.
Meanwhile the tragedy worsens in a cruel country:
Myanmar cyclone toll nears 78,000
The UN is now warning that 2.5 million people are facing hunger and
disease [AFP]
The official death toll from Cyclone Nargis, which swept through
Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta, has reached 77,738, state television has
said.
It also reported on Friday that another 55,917 people are missing and
19,359 are injured.
The news comes as Myanmar faces increased pressure to allow
international aid into the country.
The previous official death toll was 43,328, with independent experts
saying the actual number could be much higher.
British officials say the total number of people dead and missing
could be more than 200,000.
Myanmar's military rulers appear to be digging in their heels in the
face of mounting international pressure to allow more aid into the
country.
John Holmes, the leading UN humanitarian affairs official, is waiting
for visa approval to visit Myanmar so he can urge the military
government to open up to a full-scale international relief effort.
But one state-run newspaper says Myanmar can rebuild without outside
help, even though there is little evidence of that on the ground.
And the UN is now warning that 2.5 million people are facing hunger
and disease. But instead of giving out aid, the government is dishing
out eviction orders. Hundreds of displaced villagers taking refuge at
a sports hall in Yangon have been told they must go, an Al Jazeera
correspondent on the ground reported.
Army officers told them they had 24 hours to leave, without explaining
why or telling them where they could go.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/2F8A1689-7524-4618-9343-0A59CBEE3F07.htm
We had a sample of shambolic governance in the mad cow and foot and
mouth era of Conservative government. Then their replacement, Fairy B
Liar, sent an ill prepared army to invade Afghanistan and then Iraq.
An army that was so badly supplied that they hadn't the right
equipment, soldiers dying because of it. Having to buy their own boots
because the official issue ones melted in the heat, that sort of
thing.
No back up squadrons of engineers to make the lives of the civilians
they conquered bearable, no civil service of any sort. Barely able to
supply water for themselves the beautiful cities in Iraq were soon
reduced to rubble.
And no sign of things improving.
So no prizes for guessing why Burma doesn't want help from the British
or the United States of Catastrophe.
They probably wonder how the hell an enemy that subjugated them for
centuries and can't even restore New Orleans, one of their major sea
ports?
"How the hell are they going to help us?"
It must be a terrible decision to have to make. All that aid ready to
roll in.
"Yes, right! Where was it in 2005?"
"What? You want us to be in your shoes? Will they melt?" |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 1:59 am |
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A Chinese county near the epicentre of a 7.9 magnitude earthquake has
been ordered to evacuate amid fears that a lake may burst its banks.
Thousands fled Beichuan town in central Sichuan province on Saturday
to escape possible flooding.
Soldiers carried older people to safety while survivors cradled babies
on a road jammed with vehicles.
A policeman told the Associated Press news agency on Saturday that
rescuers were worried that water from the lake would inundate
Beichuan.
"The lake was jammed up by a landslide and may burst. That is what we
are worried about," he said without giving his name.
The official Xinhua News Agency said earlier that a lake in Beichuan
county "may burst its bank at any time".
It said 46 seriously injured people were in "dire need of help" in
Beichuan, where the water level was rising rapidly.
Rescuers evacuated
Xinhua did not give details but Hong Kong cable television said some
1.2 million people were being evacuated in Qingchuan, about 90km
northeast of Beichuan.
A witness said by telephone the military was evacuating everyone in
Beichuan, even rescue workers.
Residents left homes for higher ground, but a local disaster relief
official said the water in Haizi lake, nestled between two mountains,
was not rising very quickly.
Experts were studying how to release the excess from the lake, the
relief official in Mianyang, who refused to give her name, said.
Earlier, Guo Weimin, a cabinet spokesman, said that the confirmed
quake death toll had risen to 28,881.
The government had previously said at least 50,000 people were
believed killed in the disaster.
Survivors were still being found under destroyed buildings five days
after the quake.
Survivors
A 52-year-old man buried in the ruins for 117 hours was pulled to
safety in Beichuan, just after a German tourist was found in Wenchuan
county, Xinhua reported.
The vast majority of survivors are rescued in the first 24 hours after
a disaster, with the chances of survival dropping each day, said
Irving "Jake" Jacoby of the University of California, San Diego.
Jacoby heads a medical assistance team that responded to a 1989
earthquake in California, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and other
disasters.
A person trapped but uninjured could survive a week or even 10 days,
and in extreme circumstances two weeks or more, he said.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/57112186-FDBE-4DC6-AC00-773C2FB40074.htm |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 8:50 pm |
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In the North Atlantic the set up has clarified with a Low of some 993
about 20 west of the UK.
Over North America there is a variation of some 8 millibars all told,
with pressures given as low but they are 1008 to 1016 except for a Low
of 993 (again) over Labrador and Newfoundland.
That's a situation that is begging for super-cells is it not?
I can't get an update on the North Atlantic nor the Pacific on this
site yet:
Quote: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html
But going from yesterday's criteria, there is definitely something
pending. I have no idea what though.
For what it's worth I have a crick in my neck or right shoulder. |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Mon May 19, 2008 7:41 am |
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On May 19, 7:50 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: In the North Atlantic the set up has clarified with a Low of some 993
about 20 west of the UK.
Over North America there is a variation of some 8 millibars all told,
with pressures given as low but they are 1008 to 1016 except for a Low
of 993 (again) over Labrador and Newfoundland.
That's a situation that is begging for super-cells is it not?
I can't get an update on the North Atlantic nor the Pacific on this
site yet:>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html
But going from yesterday's criteria, there is definitely something
pending. I have no idea what though.
For what it's worth I have a crick in my neck or right shoulder.
5.1 05/19 14:49 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.9 05/19 14:26 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
That's it for Halong. |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 7:11 am |
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On May 19, 6:41 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On May 19, 7:50 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
In the North Atlantic the set up has clarified with a Low of some 993
about 20 west of the UK.
Over North America there is a variation of some 8 millibars all told,
with pressures given as low but they are 1008 to 1016 except for a Low
of 993 (again) over Labrador and Newfoundland.
That's a situation that is begging for super-cells is it not?
I can't get an update on the North Atlantic nor the Pacific on this
site yet:>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html
But going from yesterday's criteria, there is definitely something
pending. I have no idea what though.
For what it's worth I have a crick in my neck or right shoulder.
5.1 05/19 14:49 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.9 05/19 14:26 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
That's it for Halong.
03:47
12th to 20th May
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html
On May 14, 9:28 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Logically you might suspect that the reaction to these things is a
mirror effect in the largest bits. And ths may be seismic in nature?
Why not.
There is certainly that coincident I pointed out elsewhere about the
lapse rate in the appearance of mag 5 and greater quakes being related
to strong winds.
There seems to be something going on along those lines at the moment
with Halong.
I don't claim to know how or why, yet.
6.3 2008/05/20 13:54 Rat Islands, Aleutians, Alaska.
This was 6 days after I posted the original warning. And the day that
the spell ended.
No explanation or exculpation. I am not here for anyone's edification
or education but my own -though both can be had as a gift, depending
on the humility of the reader. |
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