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Science Forum Index » Environment Forum » Surprise, Surprise The Climate Models Didn't Predict This
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| 0BZN0 |
 Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 12:26 am |
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Guest
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"Scientists" desperately rejig their useless climate models to follow
unexpected climate!
Does anyone see the hilarity in this?
Make predictions and then adjust if not correct!
Geeeez I could do better and without a computer !
ROTFLMAO
Global Warming May Stop, Scientists Predict
Charles Clover, Environment Editor
30 Apr 2008
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/04/30/eaclimate130.xml
Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural
variations in the climate, scientists have said.
The study predicts the IPCC's 0.3ºC temperature rise for the next decade
may not happen
The average temperature of the sea around Europe and North America is
expected to cool slightly over the decade while the tropical Pacific
remains unchanged.
This would mean that the 0.3°C global average temperature rise which has
been predicted for the next decade by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change may not happen, according to the paper published in
the scientific journal Nature.
However, the effect of rising fossil fuel emissions will mean that
warming will accelerate again after 2015 when natural trends in the
oceans veer back towards warming, according to the computer model.
Noel Keenlyside of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel,
Germany, said: "The IPCC would predict a 0.3°C warming over the next
decade. Our prediction is that there will be no warming until 2015 but
it will pick up after that."
He stressed that the results were just the initial findings from a new
computer model of how the oceans behave over decades and it would be
wholly misleading to infer that global warming, in the sense of the
enhanced greenhouse effect from increased carbon emissions, had gone
away.
The IPCC currently does not include in its models actual records of such
events as the strength of the Gulf Stream and the El Nino cyclical
warming event in the Pacific, which are known to have been behind the
warmest year ever recorded in 1998.
Today's paper in Nature tries to simulate the variability of these
events and longer cycles, such as the giant ocean "conveyor belt" known
as the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which brings warm water
north into the North East Atlantic.
This has a 70 to 80-year cycle and when the circulation is strong, it
creates warmer temperatures in Europe. When it is weak, as it will be
over the next decade, temperatures fall. Scientists think that
variations of this kind could partly explain the cooling of global
average temperatures between the 1940s and 1970s after which
temperatures rose again.
Global warming forecast predicts rise in 2014
Writing in Nature, the scientists said: "Our results suggest that global
surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural
climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific
temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic [manmade] warming."
The study shows a more pronounced weakening effect than the Met Office's
Hadley Centre, which last year predicted that global warming would slow
until 2009 and pick up after that, with half the years after 2009 being
warmer than the warmest year on record, 1998.
Commenting on the new study, Richard Wood of the Hadley Centre said the
model suggested the weakening of the MOC would have a cooling effect
around the North Atlantic.
"Such a cooling could temporarily offset the longer-term warming trend
from increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
"That emphasises once again the need to consider climate variability and
climate change together when making predictions over timescales of
decades."
But he said the use of just sea surface temperatures might not
accurately reflect the state of the MOC, which was several miles deep
and dependent on factors besides temperatures, such as salt content,
which were included in the Met Office Hadley Centre model.
If the model could accurately forecast other variables besides
temperature, such as rainfall, it would be increasingly useful, but
climate predictions for a decade ahead would always be to some extent
uncertain, he added.
Oh, and a disclaimer is appropriate ....
Disclaimer
The projections are based on results from computer models that involve
simplifications of real physical processes that are not fully
understood.
Accordingly, no responsibility will be accepted by CSIRO for the
accuracy of
the projections inferred from this brochure or for any person's
interpretations, deductions, conclusions or actions in reliance on this
information.
And further:
Climate model responses are most uncertain in how they represent
feedback
effects, particularly those dealing with changes to cloud regimes,
biological effects and ocean-atmosphere interactions. The coarse spatial
resolution of climate models also remains a limitation on their ability
to
simulate the details of regional climate change. Future climate change
will
also be influenced by other, largely unpredictable, factors such as
changes
in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions and chaotic variations within the
climate system itself. Rapid climate change, or a step-like climate
response
to the enhanced greenhouse effect, is possible but its likelihood cannot
be
defined. Because changes outside the ranges given here cannot be ruled
out,
these projections should be considered with caution
Warmest Regards
Bonzo
"There is no compelling evidence that carbon dioxide has any significant
control over the direction of global temperature and climate. The
processes that regulate the interannual to decadal fluctuations of
climate are poorly understood and, as yet, unpredictable" William
Kininmonth, Meteorologist, Former Head, National Climate Centre, Bureau
of Meteorology, 1986-1998 |
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