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Science Forum Index » Geology - Earthquakes Forum » 10:25
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| Weatherlawyer |
 Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 3:26 am |
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FUD.
Don't be put off by it in any of its forms. What is the worst that
could happen? In 2004, the Boxing Day disaster that started with an
earthquake at Banda Atjeh swept the Indian Ocean as far as Africa.
10 years before, a certain manager in the Indonesian Meteorological
department was removed from office for making a mistake and issuing a
Tsunami alert.
Pity.
However those that remained alert were able to take appropriate steps
and save both themselves and their families. The odd thing was that
those most at variance with the sophisticated academic vision of
elementary geophysics fared better that those too wrapped up in their
own cleverness to do anything about it.
Meanwhile, for the next spell:
April 20th to 28th the lunar phase occurs at 10:25. And that puts it
into the same league as the spell for 14th to 21st Mar 10:46.
So more of the same, which IIRC stated last time with a storm east of
Australia. I believe that faded when an stronger one on the other side
started.
And all sorts of nasty things occurred in the south eastern states of
the US&A.
Look out for a large High confluence in the NE Pacific. It could
extend to the North Pole but is likely to be cut through by a trough
of low pressure.
So...
Here's to interesting times. And always remember:
You are on your own. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 12:16 pm |
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On Apr 19, 2:26 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: FUD.
Don't be put off by it in any of its forms. What is the worst that
could happen? In 2004, the Boxing Day disaster that started with an
earthquake at Banda Atjeh swept the Indian Ocean as far as Africa.
10 years before, a certain manager in the Indonesian Meteorological
department was removed from office for making a mistake and issuing a
Tsunami alert.
Pity.
However those that remained alert were able to take appropriate steps
and save both themselves and their families. The odd thing was that
those most at variance with the sophisticated academic vision of
elementary geophysics fared better that those too wrapped up in their
own cleverness to do anything about it.
Meanwhile, for the next spell:
April 20th to 28th the lunar phase occurs at 10:25. And that puts it
into the same league as the spell for 14th to 21st Mar 10:46.
So more of the same, which IIRC stated last time with a storm east of
Australia. I believe that faded when an stronger one on the other side
started.
And all sorts of nasty things occurred in the south eastern states of
the US&A.
Look out for a large High confluence in the NE Pacific. It could
extend to the North Pole but is likely to be cut through by a trough
of low pressure.
So...
Here's to interesting times. And always remember:
You are on your own.
Here is one I prepared earlier:
On Mar 14, 12:30 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On Mar 13, 11:11 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
14th to 21st March 2008. The time of the phase is 10:46. Which is
similar to the last phase, in that it should provide anticyclonic
weather.
However things are not working out that way so far.
So here we are 5 minutes into a new spell and things are looking
exactly the same as they did at the start of the last:
http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html
I don't know what's going on over Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas and
Louisiana. There is nothing on this site to compare to the yellow
squares on the above site:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/
But there is a lot of cyclogenesis (stormy weather) there.
Points to watch out for:
On the NEIC board that lists the dates of recent earthquakes with a
magnitude over 5:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
Look out for a day that reports no such quakes. This is a new thing
learned so it might contain errors but it seems that when there are
violent storms due whose potential inner pressures at sea level are
likely to be as low as the 960's millibars,
.....there is always an hiatus in the list.
I have noticed the hiatus in times past but never made the connection
until looking at the Aussie site here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_fwo_loop.pl?IDCODE=IDX0033&...
And following this warning is a much less gentle one where there will
be two or three consecutive earthquakes on that list that are in
almost the same place. I am not sure where the first series takes
place but the same recurs when the storm is over and the following
seems to apply:
For storms in the South West Indian Ocean, this series seems to be
Vanuatu some 120 degrees distant.
I expect yet more tropical storms and there is still the residue of
the storm that passed through Britain last Monday to fade into the
background too.
That one is at present over Estonia and Latvia, with the one that
crossed Britain a day or so later about to approach Norway both at 990
millibars.
I believe that when they reach 1000 to 1005 mb there will be a large,
maybe a very large earthquake. (As a warning the prelude will be some
uncertain or plain wrong weather forecasting from the various national
agencies.)
Well that's the best I can do so far. Good luck to all involved and
god help the victims. Maybe once the one laptop per child thing gets
going, they might have a fighting chance. Maybe even grow up to
respect their environment and stop the illegal logging.
Let's hope they are not subverted with the hopeless inanity of global
warming whatever else. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 8:14 pm |
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I just found the Australian data archive:
http://www.bom.gov.au/nmoc/MSL/
All I need now is China or Siberia and/or both would be even nicer.
Not content with criminal characteristics towards humanity, the
enticing culture of communiteeism seems radically hostile to all forms
of pressure.
Perhaps if we started calling them The People's Liberation of National
Weather Data instead of Synoptics...
Or perhaps if we stopped calling them wankers?
The tossers! |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 8:19 pm |
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On Apr 20, 7:14 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote:
I just found the Australian data archive:http://www.bom.gov.au/nmoc/MSL/
All I need now is China or Siberia and/or both would be even nicer.
Not content with criminal characteristics towards humanity, the
enticing culture of communiteeism seems radically hostile to all forms
of pressure.
Perhaps if we started calling them The People's Liberation of National
Weather Data instead of Synoptics...
Forgot to add: 27P has gone. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 5:46 am |
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On Apr 19, 2:26 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: FUD.
Don't be put off by it in any of its forms. What is the worst that
could happen? In 2004, the Boxing Day disaster that started with an
earthquake at Banda Atjeh swept the Indian Ocean as far as Africa.
10 years before, a certain manager in the Indonesian Meteorological
department was removed from office for making a mistake and issuing a
Tsunami alert.
I wonder how the people irresponsible for that catastrophe were
treated? If they sacked a man for not killing hundreds of thousands of
people, what could they possibly have done about those that did?
Funny thing in all the follow ups, there were little or no
recriminations.
I imagine in the good old days when the law demanded and eye for an
eye, they'd round up all their families, even the most distant
relatives, all his friends and their families, all the people they did
business with and all their families and execute all them.
And they'd still have come up short. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 6:44 am |
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The Canadian chart is showing a Low over the mid-western USA:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm
It's pretty much a “col“ over the rest of the eastern States, as far
as about 100 degrees west, maybe.
Most of Canada is sitting under an High and there are large Highs
either side of the continent.
Their Northern Hemisphere chart is looking slightly different, with a
Low menacing the NE USA:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif
That chart also shows a High and a Low suitably situated in the
northern North Atlantic just right for a spell full of cold weather
this week, never mind what the better educated may think.
The UK has one half decent TV show that deals with agricultural
interests. Mostly it is geared to a children's style magazine hence
the intake for presenters coming from Blue Peter. But what would one
expect from a self contained quango with a penchant for jessies and
drug abusers?
It's the only place on TV -not counting the regional newscasts which
are lax enough in some areas to allow a view of the North Atlantic
chart. Which almost hardly gets used.
For non UK residents, one can get a glimmer of what it used to be like
before modern technology gave us massive improvements:
http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane2nc.htm
Allow me to draw your attention to the writing on the screen, Notice
it is in brown and green? And the predominant colours of the
background?
Well the BBC in its majesty has solved such problems as illegibility
by doing away with all things graphic except the background. Instead
it makes do with us having to believe whatever the presenters tell us
to believe whilst they are waving at what looks like spilled porridge.
They won't tell us how much that set up cost.
I do not wonder why.
And since there is obviously no money in it, the independent services
don't even offer what the BBC does. The Met Office must be demanding
outrageous prices for its services. So why doesn't someone approach
the Canucks? Or even the Chimpistanians? They are their satellites,
after all.
Still I suppose nothing better from a government made up of sock
puppets. And one with a leader who has a tatty, large hole in it at
that, darn it!
Meanwhile:
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+00,bracknell+24,bracknell+36,bracknell+48,bracknell+60,bracknell+72,bracknell+84,bracknell+96,bracknell+108,bracknell+120,bracknell+132
has a deepening Low situated in the middle of the Atlantic until March
the 8th.
So that should prove interesting, as once March the 8th is past the
Low is scheduled to return..
Or is it? |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 12:30 pm |
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On Apr 20, 5:44 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote:
The Canadian chart is showing a Low over the mid-western USA: >http://www..weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=0&Ru...
It's pretty much a “col“ over the rest of the eastern States, as far
as about 100 degrees west, maybe.
Most of Canada is sitting under an High and there are large Highs
either side of the continent.
Their Northern Hemisphere chart is looking slightly different, with a
Low menacing the NE USA:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif
That chart also shows a High and a Low suitably situated in the
northern North Atlantic just right for a spell full of cold weather
this week, never mind what the better educated may think.
This map was interesting as of the date posted:
http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php
Red flag. That means fire warnings. Right over the longitude where
that met-man drew the lines. Well done him (or her.)
And floods for the NE States and all along the
Misisssssiisiisiispppsi.
More to come yet.
A lot!
Time that monkey spoke to god again I imagine? |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 5:23 pm |
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On Apr 20, 11:30 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote:
This map was interesting as of the date posted:
http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php
Red flag. That means fire warnings. Right over the longitude where
that met-man drew the lines. Well done him (or her.)
I think that when the data is analysed the actual distances apart will
be more like 15 degrees. That would put it in the same keep as the
Lows that miss Britain by 15 degrees.
The region around the Irish Sea, for instance, will experience far
nicer weather whilst a Low goes past to the north by 15 degrees. Some
other parts of the kingdom will of course be inundated.
Just like in the USA.
I find that sort of thing interesting. Must be because I am a kook. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 5:39 pm |
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Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
19th April 2008
5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
Always happens at the end of a storm.
How about that? |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 12:28 am |
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On Apr 21, 4:39 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
19th April 2008
5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
Always happens at the end of a storm.
How about that?
There is anther pair of matching quakes on tha NEIC list at the
moment:
5.5 M. 2008/04/21 @05:33, 7.1 S. 129.8 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
5.6 M. 2008/04/20 @13:01; 7.8 S.125.7 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
Same place.
The storm watchers initially gave that hurricane as two almost
identical Tropical Storms.
Kudos for that bravery to whomever. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 5:19 am |
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On Apr 21, 11:28 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On Apr 21, 4:39 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
19th April 2008
5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
Always happens at the end of a storm.
How about that?
There is anther pair of matching quakes on tha NEIC list at the
moment:
5.5 M. 2008/04/21 @05:33, 7.1 S. 129.8 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
5.6 M. 2008/04/20 @13:01; 7.8 S.125.7 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
Looks like this spate of quakes has taken over from the spate in the
Loyalty Islands that stopped dead on the 12th:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/125_-10.php
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/170_-20.php
45 degrees apart, that little lot. Not that I can explain any
rational. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 12:50 am |
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On Apr 21, 4:19 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On Apr 21, 11:28 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Apr 21, 4:39 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
19th April 2008
5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
Always happens at the end of a storm.
How about that?
There is anther pair of matching quakes on tha NEIC list at the
moment:
5.5 M. 2008/04/21 @05:33, 7.1 S. 129.8 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
5.6 M. 2008/04/20 @13:01; 7.8 S.125.7 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
Looks like this spate of quakes has taken over from the spate in the
Loyalty Islands that stopped dead on the 12th:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/125_-10.phphttp://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/170_-20.php
45 degrees apart, that little lot. Not that I can explain any rational.
Furthermore there is that unexplained hiatus between what might be
quite an active seismic situation and the next storm systems:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
Which link is -at the time of writing, showing no reports of quakes of
5M or more since: 2008/04/21 05:33:37
That is; some 36 hour ago.
There is a tropical storm warning out for Indonesia. However the FNMOC
WXMAP site put that into perspective:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_ausnz&dtg=2008042206&prod=thk&tau=000
The pressure would appear as a mere "col" on UK weather maps, however
TC 28S has wind speeds of 48 knots:
http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/sh2808.gif
So there you have it. Next spell starts around the 28th. There is a
massive shift with that, I believe. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:13 am |
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On Apr 22, 11:50 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On Apr 21, 4:19 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Apr 21, 11:28 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Apr 21, 4:39 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
19th April 2008
5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
Always happens at the end of a storm.
How about that?
There is anther pair of matching quakes on tha NEIC list at the
moment:
5.5 M. 2008/04/21 @05:33, 7.1 S. 129.8 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
5.6 M. 2008/04/20 @13:01; 7.8 S.125.7 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
Looks like this spate of quakes has taken over from the spate in the
Loyalty Islands that stopped dead on the 12th:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/125_-10.phpht...
45 degrees apart, that little lot. Not that I can explain any rational.
Furthermore there is that unexplained hiatus between what might be
quite an active seismic situation and the next storm systems:http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
Which link is -at the time of writing, showing no reports of quakes of
5M or more since: 2008/04/21 05:33:37
That is; some 36 hour ago.
An opportunity exists with this phenomenon that enables deeper
analysis of the relationship of quakes to fronts:
4.1 08:08 37.268 71.583 Tajikistan
2.5 07:03 37.470 -118.832 central California
2.5 07:02 61.616 -149.965 southern Alaska
3.7 06:41 43.116 -126.561 off the coast of Oregon
2.8 06:32 33.788 -116.102 southern California
3.9 05:35 43.311 -126.444 off the coast of Oregon
4.0 03:58 43.212 -126.223 off the coast of Oregon
2.5 03:46 60.100 -151.850 kenai peninsula, Alaska
4.1 03:17 42.967 -126.748 off the coast of Oreon
4.9 03:09 -4.393 101.046 southern sumatra, Indonesia
4.6 02:10 13.406 146.281 Mariana Islands region
3.0 01:59 59.461 -152.464 southern Alaska
2.5 01:55 64.717 -146.576 central Alaska
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html
With so few quakes it should be possible to guess which storms they
are related to. Note, there could well be a multiplicity of parts.
There are some excellent graphics on here:
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:25 am |
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Guest
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On Apr 22, 12:13 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On Apr 22, 11:50 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Apr 21, 4:19 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Apr 21, 11:28 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Apr 21, 4:39 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
19th April 2008
5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
Always happens at the end of a storm.
How about that?
There is anther pair of matching quakes on tha NEIC list at the
moment:
5.5 M. 2008/04/21 @05:33, 7.1 S. 129.8 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
5.6 M. 2008/04/20 @13:01; 7.8 S.125.7 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
Looks like this spate of quakes has taken over from the spate in the
Loyalty Islands that stopped dead on the 12th:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/125_-10.phpht...
45 degrees apart, that little lot. Not that I can explain any rational.
Furthermore there is that unexplained hiatus between what might be
quite an active seismic situation and the next storm systems:http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
Which link is -at the time of writing, showing no reports of quakes of
5M or more since: 2008/04/21 05:33:37
That is; some 36 hour ago.
An opportunity exists with this phenomenon that enables deeper
analysis of the relationship of quakes to fronts:
4.1 08:08 37.268 71.583 Tajikistan
2.5 07:03 37.470 -118.832 central California
2.5 07:02 61.616 -149.965 southern Alaska
3.7 06:41 43.116 -126.561 off the coast of Oregon
2.8 06:32 33.788 -116.102 southern California
3.9 05:35 43.311 -126.444 off the coast of Oregon
4.0 03:58 43.212 -126.223 off the coast of Oregon
2.5 03:46 60.100 -151.850 kenai peninsula, Alaska
4.1 03:17 42.967 -126.748 off the coast of Oreon
4.9 03:09 -4.393 101.046 southern sumatra, Indonesia
4.6 02:10 13.406 146.281 Mariana Islands region
3.0 01:59 59.461 -152.464 southern Alaska
2.5 01:55 64.717 -146.576 central Alaska
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html
With so few quakes it should be possible to guess which storms they
are related to. Note, there could well be a multiplicity of parts.
The other problem of course is that there are two time sequences to
beware of. First of all, initial data from seismographs is almost
instantaneous. Meteorological data requires collation and analysis as
well as being rigidly time stamped.
And it seems to me that the seismic events follow the storm, that is
they occur as the storm dissipates. (Thereafter, in the absence of
storm fronts, there are sequences of aftersahocks. Some of them much
larger than the initial events and not necessarily in the same place.
(There may be a lot of error in our perception of the phenomenon known
as aftershocks.))
I had to prefix the links with > as a Google mangles a list of such
links otherwise. I wonder if any character would do as well? Or would
that just become a suffix to the preceding link? |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 4:10 am |
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On Apr 20, 4:46 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On Apr 19, 2:26 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
FUD.
Don't be put off by it in any of its forms. What is the worst that
could happen? In 2004, the Boxing Day disaster that started with an
earthquake at Banda Atjeh swept the Indian Ocean as far as Africa.
10 years before, a certain manager in the Indonesian Meteorological
department was removed from office for making a mistake and issuing a
Tsunami alert.
I wonder how the people irresponsible for that catastrophe were
treated? If they sacked a man for not killing hundreds of thousands of
people, what could they possibly have done about those that did?
Funny thing in all the follow ups, there were little or no
recriminations.
I imagine in the good old days when the law demanded and eye for an
eye, they'd round up all their families, even the most distant
relatives, all his friends and their families, all the people they did
business with and all their families and execute all them.
And they'd still have come up short.
Here comes that high again
Filling in the sky like a memory
Filling over-head in the North Pacific
Want to talk about that stalled depression?
Would you rather ignore this session?
Prefer to live in oblivion
Give abrogation to all discussion?
What is it like for you?
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif |
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