| |
 |
|
|
Science Forum Index » Agriculture Forum » Global review of commercialized transgenic crops: 2002 featu
Page 1 of 1
|
| Author |
Message |
| David Kendra |
 Posted: Sun Nov 09, 2003 8:57 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
Global review of commercialized transgenic crops: 2002 feature: BT maize
(Executive summary)
November 7, 2003
Crop Biotech Update
Clive James, ISAAA
http://www.isaaa.org
GLOBAL GM CROPS IN 2002: GROWTH IN GM CROP AREA
In 2002, the global area of GM crops was 58.7 million hectares or 145
million acres, grown in sixteen countries by 6 million farmers, of whom 5
million were small resource-poor farmers in developing countries. GM crop
area has grown 35 fold between 1996 and 2002 =E2=80=93 one of the highest
rates of adoption of any technology in agriculture. The US was the largest
grower of GM crops (68%), followed by Argentina (23%) Canada (6%) and China
(4%) with the balance grown by the other 12 countries. Three countries
India, Colombia, and Honduras grew GM crops for the first time in 2002.
The principal GM crops continued to be soybean, maize, cotton and canola. On
a global basis 51% of the 72 million hectares of soybean was GM, 20% of the
34 million hectares of cotton, 9% of the 140 million hectares of maize and
12% of the 25 million hectares of canola. Herbicide tolerance continued to
be the most dominant trait occupying 75% of the GM global area in 2002,
followed by insect resistance (17%) and the stacked genes of herbicide
tolerance and insect resistance, occupying 8%.
In the first seven years of GM crop commercialization, 1996 to 2002, a
cumulative total of over 235 million hectares of GM crops were planted
globally which met the expectations of millions of small and large farmers
in both industrial and developing countries. GM crops delivered significant
agronomic, environmental health and social benefits to farmers and to global
society, and contributed to a more sustainable agriculture.
Global GM crop area is expected to continue to grow in 2003.
VALUE OF THE GLOBAL TRANSGENIC SEED MARKET IN 2002
The value of the global transgenic seed market is based on the sale price of
transgenic seed plus any technology fees that apply. The value in 2002was
$4.0 billion, up from $3.7 billion in 2001.
GLOBAL R&D EXPENDITURES IN CROP BIOTECHNOLOGY
Global R&D expenditure in the private and public sectors is $4.4 billionwith
over 95% of the total in the industrial countries, led by the US. China is
the leading investor in R&D crop biotechnology in the developing countries,
followed by India.
GM CROPS AND THE COMMERCIAL SEED INDUSTRY
GM crops represent approximately 13% of the $30 billion global commercial
seed market in 2001.
FEATURE: BT MAIZE
The feature on Bt maize is devoted to:
assessing the performance to-date of the first generation of Bt maize with
the cry1Ab gene on a global basis over the last seven years
evaluating the future potential of cry1Ab and other Bt or novel genes that
confer resistance to the major caterpillar/moths (Lepidoptera), particularly
the economically important stem borer complex
a preliminary assessment of new genes for the control of the corn rootworm
complex (Coleoptera/beetles), an important pest in the Americas which has
also been detected in 13 countries in Europe
The principal aim is to present a consolidated set of data that will
facilitate a knowledge-based discussion of the potential benefits and risks
that Bt maize offers global society. The topics presented include:
the maize crop and its origins;
global distribution of maize in developing and industrial countries, by
area, production, consumption, imports, and exports as well as projections
of future maize demand in 2020;
definition of the areas sown to hybrids, open pollinated varieties and
farmer-saved seed;
estimates of the number of maize farmers worldwide, by principal country,
and average size of maize holdings;
maize production systems, germplasm development and maize utilization;
an overview of the insect pests of maize as well as the crop losses
theycause, including the cost of control, and an analysis of the $550
million global maize insecticide market and a gains from Bt maize;
deployment of the cry1Ab gene in Bt maize, its global adoption and
assessment of benefits;
a preview of the second generation genes which include the genes cry3Bb1and
cry1Fa2, first commercialized in the US in 2003, and five other gene
products that are in development and expected to be launched within the next
three years;
a review of Insect Resistance Management, the potential effect of Bt maize
on the environment and the food and safety aspects of Bt maize, including
the important topic of mycotoxins and the advantage that Bt maize offers
with lower levels of the mycotoxin fumonisin in terms of food and feed
safety, particularly in developing countries;
a brief overview of trade issues as they relate to Bt maize in the USA and
the EU;
concluding with an assessment of the global potential of Bt maize, as a safe
and sustainable technology that has the capacity to make a critical
contribution to global food and feed security, more specifically to the
unprecedented demand for approximately 850 million tons of maize in 2020,
60% ofwhich will be consumed in developing countries which will have the
formidable challenge of having to produce most of their maize demands in
their owncountries with imports supplying only around 10% or less.
THE MAIZE CROP
Approximately 75 countries in both the industrial and developing world, each
grow at least 100,000 hectares of maize; the total of 140 million hectares
produces 600 million MT of maize grain per year, valued at $65 billion
annually, based on the 2003 international price of $108/MT. Developing
countries plant two-thirds of the global maize area, and industrial
countries one third. The top five producers of maize are the US 229 million
MT, China 124 m MT, Brazil 35.5 m MT, Mexico 19 m MT and France 16 m MT. Of
the top 25 maize countries in the world 8 are industrial and 17 are
developing countries including 9 from Africa, 5 from Asia and 3 from Latin
America. There areapprox. 200 million maize farmers worldwide, 98% of whom
farm in developing countries; 75% of maize farmers are in Asia (105 million
in China alone),between 15 and 20% in Africa and 5% in Latin America. Two
thirds of the maize seed sold globally is hybrid and only 20% is
farmer-saved seed. In fact, hybrids are the predominant seed type in many of
the principal developing countries which have a seed distribution system
already in place for providing Bt maize to farmers; for example 84% of the
105 million Chinese maize farmers buy hybrid seed, and 81% of all maize seed
used in Eastern and Southern Africa is hybrid.
MAIZE INSECT PESTS AND THE VALUE OF CROP LOSSES
The lepidopteran pests, particularly the stem borer complex, are a major
constraint to increased productivity, and are of economic importance in most
maize-growing countries throughout the world. Just under half (46%) of the
maize area in the 25 key maize-growing countries have medium (40% area
infested in temperate areas) to high levels (60% area infested in
tropics/subtropics) of infestation with lepidopteran pests. Corn rootworm
infests 20 million hectares in the Americas, requiring more insecticide than
any other pest in the US, with losses and control measures in the US costing
$1 billionper annum. The global losses due to all insect pests is 9%,
equivalent to 52 million MT of maize, valued at $5.7 billion annually and
consuming insecticide valued at $550 million. Losses associated with
lepidopteran pests, that can be controlled bycry1Ab, are estimated to cause
losses of 4.5%, equivalent to half the total losses from insect pests of
maize.
POTENTIAL GLOBAL BENEFITS OF BT MAIZE
Bt maize has proved to be a safe and effective product. Having undergone
rigorous testing for food and feed safety, it has provided environmentally
friendly and effective control of targeted pests, and the resistance is
still durable after seven years of deployment on 43 million hectares. It is
the first Bt maize product widely commercialized with proactively
implemented, science-based insect resistant management strategies featuring
refugia (areas planted to non-Bt maize) combined with high dose technology.
Global deployment of the cry1Ab gene in Bt maize has the potential to
increase maize production by up to 35 million MT valued at $3.7 billion per
year; yield gains due to Bt maize are estimated at 5% in the temperate maize
growing areas and 10% in the tropical areas, where there are more and
overlapping generations of pests leading to higher infestations and losses.
From a global perspective the potential for Bt maize in the near to mid-term
is substantial. There are several reasons for this:
Firstly, the cry1Ab gene has provided effective control of several of the
primary pests of maize, principally the stem borers, and intermediate
control for other caterpillar pests including armyworm and earworm. The
successful performance of Bt maize (cry1Ab) has resulted in its rapid
adoption on43 million hectares in seven countries, since its introduction in
1996.
Secondly, new Bt products are already being launched including the cry3Bb1
gene for corn rootworm control in the US in 2003 and the cry1Fa2 gene that
provides effective control of pests controlled by cry1Ab with enhanced
control of fall armyworm and black cutworm. In addition there are five new
Bt and novel gene products that are anticipated for launch in the next
threeyears that will provide the necessary diversity in modes of action to
allow even more effective control of a broader range of the principal insect
pests of maize.
Thirdly, in addition to the significant advantages that Bt maize offers as a
pest management tool, the product offers safer feed and food products than
conventional maize with lower levels of harmful mycotoxins, an increasingly
important attribute as food and feed safety is assigned higher priority. Of
the three major staples, maize, wheat and rice, to-date maize is theonly one
that offers the significant benefits of commercialized biotechnology. Bt
maize now offers an increasing range of options to meet the very diverse
needs of the environments in which maize is grown.
Farmers assign Bt maize high value because it is a convenient and cost
effective technology that allows them to manage risk in an uncertain environ
ment and offers insurance against devastating crop losses in years when pest
infestations are unusually high. For example, benefits from using Bt to
control corn rootworm in the US alone, where it infests 13 million hectares,
are projected at $460 million annually of which farmers would gain
two-thirds and technology developers one-third. Producer gains of $289
million would be associated with increased yields, lower production costs
and a significant decrease (2,300 MT a.i, or more) in insecticide use, which
is currently
the highest for any pest in the US. Global deployment of Bt or novel genes
to control the principal lepidopteran pests of maize as well as corn
rootworm has the potential to substitute up to 40 to 50% of the current
10,700 MT (a.i) of insecticides applied to maize globally, valued at
approximately $550 million annually; this has significant environmental
implications.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
The potential yield gains of up to 35 million MT, attainable from the first
generation of Bt maize (cry1Ab), with more gains to come from the second
generation of Bt maize and novel gene technology, represent a challenge and
an opportunity to contribute to feed and food security in 2020, when, for
the first time ever, maize demand will exceed the demands for wheat and
rice. The challenge is to produce an additional 266 million MT globally to
meet an unprecedented global demand totaling approximately 850 million MT of
maize by 2020, fuelled by more demand for meat by a more affluent global
society.
The 35 million MT potential gain from Bt maize amounts to almost a 15%
contribution to the additional 266 million MT needed by 2020. Of the
additional
266 million tons required globally in 2020, 80%, or 213 million MT, will be
required by developing countries and the formidable challenge for them is to
optimize domestic production to meet most of their own additional needs,
with imports expected to continue to provide only around 10%. It is
projected that Bt maize has the technological potential to deliver benefits
on 40 to 45 million hectares in the near to mid term compared with the 10
million hectares it occupies today. This should be an incentive for major
maize consuming developing countries, such as China and Brazil, to approve
and adopt Bt maize because of the significant and multiple benefits it
offers, including less risks associated with food and feed security. The
major constraints are the lack of regulatory capacity in many developing
countries, with acceptance, and trade issues being equally important,
especially relative to the market influence of the European Union. Bt maize
is likely to continue to experience high growth rates in the near-term in
the traditional markets of the US, Canada, Argentina, South Africa, Spain,
Philippines and Honduras. Subject to regulatory approval and acceptance,
Asia offers significant new opportunities particularly in China and in
India, Indonesia, and Thailand. Other important markets include Brazil and
Mexico in Latin America and Egypt, Kenya, and Nigeria on the African
continent.
Acceptance will be the major factor governing approval and adoption in
Eastern European countries such as Romania and Hungary, which are EU
accession countries. In Western Europe, France, Italy and Germany have much
to gain from the technology, but political considerations related to
acceptance have continued to result in rejection of the technology except in
Spain where Bt maize has been a success, occupying 10% of the national maize
area in 2003, having doubled from 5% in 2002.
Bt maize is a proven safe and effective technology that has the potential to
deliver benefits on 25 million hectares through hybrid systems in temperate
mega-environments, amongst which China offers the most important
opportunity. In the tropical environments with a potential of 18 million
hectares of Bt maize through hybrid systems, the most important opportunity
is in Brazil. Bt maize offers a unique opportunity and an incentive for
major maize consuming developing countries to approve and adopt Bt maize and
benefit from the multiple and significant benefits it offers in terms of a
safer andmore affordable food and feed, which can coincidentally make a
major contribution to food and feed security and to the alleviation of
hunger and malnutrition which claims 24,000 lives a day in the developing
countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
| |
|
Page 1 of 1
All times are GMT - 5 Hours
The time now is Mon Oct 13, 2008 3:37 am
|
|