Petra <petras...@hotmail.com> wrote in news:6194a342-5c63-41a0-b9c1-
cd37ce407...@s8g2000prg.googlegroups.com:

Discussion on newsgroups about some "thing" perhaps is a good thing,
but not over two hundred single predictions.  For that I'd be accused
of taking over someone's web site.... LOL

I realize you access usenet through Google, otherwise I would
strongly recommend the group alt.earthquake.predictions. It was
my intent for that group to be for exactly that - posting and
discussion of predictions.

It's too bad Google doesn't seem to have the manpower to take
a few moments to add it to their system despite repeated requests.

Anyway, I'm now relocated near Berkeley in Albany and I'm delighted to
be in the East Bay so I can get our little instrument installation
underway as well as other projects.  I'm sorry you aren't here to
enjoy the launch of this project.  This is something I've wanted to do
for four years and at long last, it's a happening thing.

Moved again?

It's good you have projects. I have them too, but they aren't all on
seismology. And having a 50+ hour a week job tends to put a cramp in
one's free time. Actually, I've been doing some 60 hour weeks lately.
Makes for good paychecks, but.... I can't see how some folks do 80.

I see Lac Kivu took a leap, so where do you suppose the next really
unusual earthquake event is going to take place?  It's not the size
that counts, just the where....

That is not a common place to see quakes, but not unheard of, being
smack in the middle of the East African Rift Zone. The downside is
the lack of strong earthquake building codes, not that that area is
capable of enforcing and/or affording them easily.

Brian
--http://www.skywise711.com- Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ:http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions":http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

That is not a common place to see quakes, but not unheard of,
being smack in the middle of the East African Rift Zone.

In article <13qd6s1pdo2sp8b@corp.supernews.com>,
Skywise <into@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:

That is not a common place to see quakes, but not unheard of,
being smack in the middle of the East African Rift Zone.

Is the lack of seeing quakes due to lack of instrumentation
there?

Petra <petras...@hotmail.com> wrote in news:b46cc967-a51c-4927-b342-
085161082...@d70g2000hsb.googlegroups.com:

But as for newsgroup predictions, it ain't gonna happen.  Been there,
done that, found it a really negative experience.  LOL

Well, I'll be blunt....

Unless a person wanting to analyze your predictions were to
constantly monitor your website, making backups of it and
verifying for, shall we say, no edits, then it raises the
spectre of postdiction.

I'm not saying you do that, but because it has happened,
because posts on websites have been edited after the fact,
there has to be some effort to make sure that it isn't
happening in your case.

Although posts on usenet can be forged, it is much more
difficult to pull off a post-facto edit.

When you come to a group and say, "I predicted that quake,
it's on my website", it's very difficult to prove that you
might not have put the prediction up after the event occured.

Again, not saying you do that. In fact, I think you have the
integrity not to do so. It's just that the possibility of it
happening can lead to accusations. I just didn't think you'd
want to have to deal with that and/or would like to promote
a more independantly verifiable way of posting predictions.

Brian
--http://www.skywise711.com- Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ:http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions":http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

But as for newsgroup predictions, it ain't gonna happen. Been there,
done that, found it a really negative experience. LOL

On Jan 27, 11:09 pm, Linc Madison <news20...@lincmad.example.com
wrote:
In article
c6c53c5e-05bf-4c97-8dcf-ace9f2da7...@p69g2000hsa.googlegroups.com>,



Petra <petras...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Jan 26, 9:36 pm, rog...@lpbroadband.net wrote:

I've asked Alan and John already but are you of the opinion that no
other scientists read these newsgroups? Really, I was just thinking
out loud, opening the topic for discussion.

Well Roger,

I don't know how many scientists read this newgroup, but from what
I've seen most are not willing to declare they are scientists... so I
don't know.  But if you are going to gather a learned consensus
perhaps asking scientists who are pro-earthquake prediction might be
a good idea.   It seems to me that John is quite anti-prediction thus
not a good person to ask.  I don't know Jones well enough to form an
opinion.  Why not ask Musson or Wyss as an example.  I'm sure you
could find their e-mail addy's.

You've just hit the nail on the head if you're looking to understand
why people who actually know science don't take you very seriously.

You are EXACTLY WRONG in saying that you should perhaps "ask scientists
who are pro-earthquake prediction." In order to gather a learned
consensus, you must face the most adversarial of your critics. You must
SEEK OUT the most SKEPTICAL observers. That is the core of science, and
you clearly just don't get it. When scientists are skeptical of your
work, they're not being personally hostile, they're just being true to
the principles of science.

Even beyond the null hypothesis, that we don't yet know how to reliably
predict earthquakes and may or may not ever be able to, there is reason
to speculate that it might be PROVABLY IMPOSSIBLE ever to predict
earthquakes, no matter what technology you ever develop, because of the
elements of mathematical chaos in the system. Take a thin rectangular
slab of spring steel. Hold it vertical, holding from the very bottom
edge. Will the top bow to the left or to the right? It is fundamentally
impossible to predict, no matter how precisely you specify the initial
conditions, because it is an intrinsically highly chaotic system. It's
not that wild an idea to think that earthquakes might be similarly
chaotic, only in far more dimensions.

--
Linc Madison  * San Francisco, Calif. *  News2007b at Linc Mad d0t c0m
Read my political blog, "The Third Path" <http://LincMad.blogspot.com
US, California, and Washington State laws apply to LINCMAD.COM e-mail.

Hi Link,

Thanks for you input. In discussing forecast modeling we should
realize the people discussing this should be those who understand it's
potential in that it is an excellent vehicle to inform the public of
earthquake safety issues while not predicting major earthquake events,
whereas prediction itself would cover that better.