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Science Forum Index » Geology - Meteorology Forum » July 2007 30-Day Forecast
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 Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2007 7:32 pm |
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July 2007 30-DAY OUTLOOK
745 PM EST Fri. June 29, 2007
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
Sea surface temperatures are between .5 and 1.5C below normal in the
Equatorial Pacific from about 120 W to the South American coast. This
and other indicators are in line with a neutral ENSO episode.
Indications are, that neutral conditions are to continue through July.
This should not have a significant impact on the circulation across
the nation.
NAO is currently negative and is forecast to remain negative during
the first half of the month. The PNA is positive and is forecast trend
towards neutral during the same period. Models are in good agreement
with the 500-HPA circulation. A strong upper low should be located
south of Alaska, a subtropical ridge will be in the Southwest. A
strong trough should be over eastern Canada. The pattern is forecast
to be less amplified by the mid-month period.
The pattern depicted above will likely result in above normal
temperatures across much of the West. The probability of above normal
temperatures across this region is 57 percent. Below normal
temperatures are forecast for the upper Great Lakes and New England.
The probability of below normal temperatures in these areas is 56
percent. The remainder of the nation is expected to average near
normal with no significant deviation from normal climatology.
Soil moisture anomalies observed during the past month across a large
area of the country indicate below normal precipitation for the same
areas of the West with above normal temperatures. This includes the
Southwest. The probability of below normal precipitation across this
region is 57 percent and increase to 60 percent across the Southwest.
Above normal precipitation is forecast for the center of the nation.
The probability of above normal precipitation in this region is 57
percent . Soil moisture anomalies in the Southeast also indicate
below normal precipitation in this region. The probability of below
normal precipitation in this area is 57 percent. The remainder of the
nation is expected to average near normal with no significant
deviation from normal climatology.
Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx |
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