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Skywise

Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 1:09 am

Guest

I didn't feel it....bummer. Haven't felt a quake in quite some time.
Anyway...

The location is interesting. It's near the San Andreas (southern)
and in one of the positive stress lobes from the 1992 Landers quake.
Stress appears to be extending north and south from the Landers
fault zone and this quake seems to be right on the southern end.

Increased stress and on the SA with a 4.2 makes me go "hmmmmmm....."

Reference Ross Stein's work:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/research/deformation/modeling/papers/landers_science
..html

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

Susan

Posted: Wed Jun 06, 2007 6:35 pm

Guest

On Jun 1, 11:09 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:

Quote:

I didn't feel it....bummer. Haven't felt a quake in quite some time.

(hi, Brian.) Me neither.

Quote:

The location is interesting. It's near the San Andreas (southern)
and in one of the positive stress lobes from the 1992 Landers quake.

A couple of us USGS/Caltech chickens have also noticed the little
quakes close to the SAF in recent months, along what we usually think
of as very quiet locked fault segments. A colleague and I decided to
do some simple statistical tests:

http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/office/hough/quakes-06-2007.pdf

I admit I was surprised by the results, although probably I shouldn't
have been.

Susan

Skywise

Posted: Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:34 pm

Guest

Susan <se.hough@gmail.com> wrote in news:1181172957.118178.292300
@i38g2000prf.googlegroups.com:

Quote:

On Jun 1, 11:09 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
I didn't feel it....bummer. Haven't felt a quake in quite some time.

(hi, Brian.) Me neither.

The location is interesting. It's near the San Andreas (southern)
and in one of the positive stress lobes from the 1992 Landers quake.

A couple of us USGS/Caltech chickens have also noticed the little
quakes close to the SAF in recent months, along what we usually think
of as very quiet locked fault segments. A colleague and I decided to
do some simple statistical tests:

http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/office/hough/quakes-06-2007.pdf

I admit I was surprised by the results, although probably I shouldn't
have been.

Susan

Very nice, Susan. Not far from what this amateur thought of
doing. But you're turned out much nicer than anything I would
have made.

I wasn't surprised, simply due to the statistics. As some are
fond of pointing out, the quakes don't seem to know they are
going to happen until they happen, and they don't know how big
they're going to be until they stop happening.

But still, it's a wake up call for those of us who are aware.
Seeing something like the 4.2 on the south SA and the little
cluster near Frazier Park sure makes me think about my pitiful
supplies on hand. Well, that's a relative term. What I consider
pitiful might be a horde to someone else.

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

Susan

Posted: Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:34 pm

Guest

On Jun 6, 7:34 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:

Quote:

Susan <se.ho...@gmail.com> wrote in news:1181172957.118178.292300
@i38g2000prf.googlegroups.com:

On Jun 1, 11:09 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
I didn't feel it....bummer. Haven't felt a quake in quite some time.

(hi, Brian.) Me neither.

The location is interesting. It's near the San Andreas (southern)
and in one of the positive stress lobes from the 1992 Landers quake.

A couple of us USGS/Caltech chickens have also noticed the little
quakes close to the SAF in recent months, along what we usually think
of as very quiet locked fault segments. A colleague and I decided to
do some simple statistical tests:

Very nice, Susan. Not far from what this amateur thought of
doing. But you're turned out much nicer than anything I would
have made.

My colleague, Karen Felzer, is probably the best young person around
in the field of earthquake statistics. It's nice having her in the
office :)

Quote:

the quakes don't seem to know they are
going to happen until they happen, and they don't know how big
they're going to be until they stop happening.

This is very similar to Karen's world view -- the 2nd point in
particular.

Quote:

But still, it's a wake up call for those of us who are aware.

A wake up call for those who are awake? But, yeah, wake up calls are
good. I went out and got lots of bottled water after Northridge...and
it sat for years until I realized that drinking it might not actually
kill me, but probably wouldn't be a good idea...

Susan

-

Damon Hill

Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 12:58 am

Guest

Susan <se.hough@gmail.com> wrote in news:1181187251.138139.247930
@q19g2000prn.googlegroups.com:

Quote:

Which is a reminder for me to drain and refill my water cache,
something I nominally do annually. If I remember...

No idea what I'd do for medications, particularly insulin, if I
had to go a month or more without most of them. Nothing's really
critical, but it wouldn't be good for me.

--Damon, in seismically slow Seattle

Guest

Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:45 am

In article <1181172957.118178.292300@i38g2000prf.googlegroups.com>,
Susan <se.hough@gmail.com> wrote:

Quote:

http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/office/hough/quakes-06-2007.pdf

All I can say is thank you.

Skywise

Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 9:10 pm

Guest

Susan <se.hough@gmail.com> wrote in news:1181187251.138139.247930
@q19g2000prn.googlegroups.com:

Quote:

On Jun 6, 7:34 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Susan <se.ho...@gmail.com> wrote in news:1181172957.118178.292300
@i38g2000prf.googlegroups.com:

On Jun 1, 11:09 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
I didn't feel it....bummer. Haven't felt a quake in quite some time.

(hi, Brian.) Me neither.

The location is interesting. It's near the San Andreas (southern)
and in one of the positive stress lobes from the 1992 Landers quake.

A couple of us USGS/Caltech chickens have also noticed the little
quakes close to the SAF in recent months, along what we usually think
of as very quiet locked fault segments. A colleague and I decided to
do some simple statistical tests:

Very nice, Susan. Not far from what this amateur thought of
doing. But you're turned out much nicer than anything I would
have made.

My colleague, Karen Felzer, is probably the best young person around
in the field of earthquake statistics. It's nice having her in the
office Smile

I keep telling myself I'm going ot go take a statistics class....

And I keep telling myself....

:)

Quote:

the quakes don't seem to know they are
going to happen until they happen, and they don't know how big
they're going to be until they stop happening.

This is very similar to Karen's world view -- the 2nd point in
particular.

That's probably where I picked it up. It seems to make sense to
me in light of my knowledge of quantum mechanics and chaos theory.
I still believe that quakes may be at least "forecastable" (new word)
if only we can gather enough information.

Quote:

But still, it's a wake up call for those of us who are aware.

A wake up call for those who are awake?

D'oh!!! Yeah...I guess that was silly, huh?

Quote:

But, yeah, wake up calls are
good. I went out and got lots of bottled water after Northridge...and
it sat for years until I realized that drinking it might not actually
kill me, but probably wouldn't be a good idea...

Water actually isn't too much of a problem for me. Right now I
have access to 10 cases of bottled water if need be.

Actually, I think my shortest supply right now is in kitty food.

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

Guest

Posted: Fri Jun 08, 2007 2:50 am

In article <136hel0b2vukh7f@corp.supernews.com>,
Skywise <into@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:

Quote:

I keep telling myself I'm going ot go take a statistics class....

I already did and I even got an A. Now if I could just remember
it...

John Krempasky

Posted: Fri Jun 08, 2007 9:43 pm

Guest

<ellis@no.spam> wrote in message news:1181289016.484910@no.spam...

Quote:

In article <136hel0b2vukh7f@corp.supernews.com>,
Skywise <into@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:

I keep telling myself I'm going ot go take a statistics class....

I already did and I even got an A. Now if I could just remember
it...

If we could just force everyone on the syzyjob board into a stats class at
gunpoint...

I think I'm finally going to take one this fall.

Guest

Posted: Sat Jun 09, 2007 2:30 am

In article <vPadnXHlhd5ajvfbnZ2dnUVZ_oernZ2d@comcast.com>,
John Krempasky <johnk8spamless@comcast.net> wrote:

Quote:

If we could just force everyone on the syzyjob board into a stats class at
gunpoint...

You can take a kook to reality, but you can't make him think.

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