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Science Forum Index » Geology - Earthquakes Forum » US West Coast Region begins three-year seismic upcycle.
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| Guest |
 Posted: Tue May 08, 2007 7:16 pm |
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| John Krempasky |
| Posted: Tue May 08, 2007 7:30 pm |
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Guest
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<effacers@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1178669816.611900.100040@p77g2000hsh.googlegroups.com...
Quote: I expect above average magnitude quakes for this region over the next
few years, with the next larger mag (4.0+) cluster starting within the
next few months.
I'd bet you couldn't even guess a ballpark number what the AVERAGE number of
quakes of any magnitude is for "the west coast" (whatever that
is..CA/OR/WA?) for any period of time.
BTW, I think Edward Tufte's (if you don't know who he is, you should) head
would explode if he ever saw any of your websites - you have created the
most inscrutable and content-free graphs in the history of the universe. |
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| Guest |
| Posted: Tue May 08, 2007 7:52 pm |
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On May 8, 5:30 pm, "John Krempasky" <johnk8spaml...@comcast.net>
wrote:
Quote: effac...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1178669816.611900.100040@p77g2000hsh.googlegroups.com...
I expect above average magnitude quakes for this region over the next
few years, with the next larger mag (4.0+) cluster starting within the
next few months.
I'd bet you couldn't even guess a ballpark number what the AVERAGE number of
quakes of any magnitude is for "the west coast" (whatever that
is..CA/OR/WA?) for any period of time.
Someone say bet? How much you willing to lose?
Quote:
BTW, I think Edward Tufte's (if you don't know who he is, you should) head
would explode if he ever saw any of your websites - you have created the
most inscrutable and content-free graphs in the history of the universe.
No I could give two shits who he is BUT I invite him for a gander at
my websites, but make sure he has his webcam on in hi-def with a link
and I'll inform rotten.com. Let the fireworks errr head explosions
begin.
And thanks for the compliment. It's always nice to have trolls
critiquing me abilities and achievements. When the next cluster of
4.0+ quakes occur in the west coast region in the next few months I
won't expect to hear from you or any other NG troll .. as before when
I've been dead center right on the money with my forecasts. |
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| Guest |
| Posted: Tue May 08, 2007 7:56 pm |
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BTW my open challenge still stands. If you think you can forecast
earthquakes or any other event containing at least 1000 bars of
accurate data, come at me. So far I'm unchallenged. No one has taken
up the challenge (a year and counting). |
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| Timberwoof |
| Posted: Tue May 08, 2007 8:27 pm |
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Guest
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In article <D6OdnVmgfP-si9zbnZ2dnUVZ_h2pnZ2d@comcast.com>,
"John Krempasky" <johnk8spamless@comcast.net> wrote:
Quote: effacers@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1178669816.611900.100040@p77g2000hsh.googlegroups.com...
I expect above average magnitude quakes for this region over the next
few years, with the next larger mag (4.0+) cluster starting within the
next few months.
I'd bet you couldn't even guess a ballpark number what the AVERAGE number of
quakes of any magnitude is for "the west coast" (whatever that
is..CA/OR/WA?) for any period of time.
BTW, I think Edward Tufte's (if you don't know who he is, you should) head
would explode if he ever saw any of your websites - you have created the
most inscrutable and content-free graphs in the history of the universe.
Oh, this I have to see. Hang on, where's that URL?
Ah, here, from his Google link.
http://www.angelfire.com/planet/threee/earthquakes/usawestcoastregion.jpg
Oh, my. That is special. WTF does that graph mean? Well, it's got a box,
a wiggly line, and a badly painted freeway. Egads ... are those JPEG
artifacts or more attempts at showing ... something?
This only confirms my suspicion that this guy is innumerate. There's no
way, he says, that a five-foot difference in water level on the Earth
can affect the moon's orbit.
Thanks, John. That was entertaining in a masochistic sort of way.
--
Timberwoof <me at timberwoof dot com> http://www.timberwoof.com |
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| Steve |
| Posted: Tue May 08, 2007 8:52 pm |
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Guest
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On May 8, 6:27 pm, Timberwoof <timberwoof.s...@inferNOnoSPAMsoft.com>
wrote:
Timberwoof making his daily urination rounds .. trolls are a dime a
dozen in NG threads .. but as they say rust never sleeps. |
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| Guest |
| Posted: Tue May 08, 2007 9:10 pm |
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In article <1178671932.015384.184030@u30g2000hsc.googlegroups.com>,
<effacers@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: Someone say bet? How much you willing to lose?
Evasion noted. Why can't you just stick to the topic? |
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| Guest |
| Posted: Tue May 08, 2007 9:11 pm |
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In article <1178672175.821823.203630@l77g2000hsb.googlegroups.com>,
<effacers@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: BTW my open challenge still stands.
That's male bovine used food. You've never presented a challenge. That's
because you're all about the attention and not about the results. |
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| Steve |
| Posted: Tue May 08, 2007 9:17 pm |
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Guest
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On May 8, 7:11 pm, e...@no.spam () wrote:
Quote: That's male bovine used food.
Oh am I supposed to laugh?
Quote: You've never presented a challenge.
Are you high? Scroll up.
Quote: That's because you're all about the attention and not about the results.
But it is you giving all your attention to me. You give backrubs too? |
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| Guest |
| Posted: Tue May 08, 2007 11:21 pm |
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Ok, I've just completed my "super" program. It's in a (beta) test
phase so crossing my fingers on this puppy.
When it works properly it will forecast the magnitude to within .5
magnitude (average) over the next four days. I've run it only for less
than a minute in manual mode and below is that generation.
Here's a brief explanation (if you wanna know). The first number is
the base 5 representation of the next four days with the first digit
being the next day, and the forth digit being the forth day. These s
are as magnitude slot assignment code:
0 = 0.00 to 2.7 magnitude
1 = 2.71 to 2.9
2 = 2.91 to 3.1
3 = 3.11 to 3.5
4 = 3.51+
The second number is the forecast weight, the higher the more likely
that sequence occurs "if" things function properly. Again this is the
"beta version" results.
0, 21
1, 20
2, 21
3, 23
4, 23
10, 23
11, 23
12, 23
13, 13
14, 23
20, 8
21, 12
22, 21
23, 23
24, 8
30, 13
31, 21
32, 10
33, 10
34, 21
40, 23
41, 11
42, 23
43, 8
44, 15
100, 21
101, 21
102, 21
103, 17
104, 20
110, 17
111, 20
112, 10
113, 21
114, 18
120, 21
121, 10
122, 20
123, 20
124, 21
130, 21
131, 20
132, 13
133, 23
134, 10
140, 10
141, 21
142, 20
143, 21
144, 23
200, 8
201, 10
202, 10
203, 10
204, 10
210, 18
211, 17
212, 21
213, 18
214, 18
220, 23
221, 21
222, 20
223, 21
224, 20
230, 7
231, 8
232, 23
233, 8
234, 10
240, 8
241, 12
242, 8
243, 10
244, 8
300, 23
301, 21
302, 23
303, 15
304, 21
310, 10
311, 6
312, 20
313, 20
314, 20
320, 20
321, 12
322, 11
323, 5
324, 10
330, 10
331, 23
332, 21
333, 21
334, 8
340, 23
341, 21
342, 12
343, 19
344, 21
400, 7
401, 13
402, 15
403, 21
404, 20
410, 23
411, 23
412, 23
413, 23
414, 20
420, 7
421, 8
422, 7
423, 8
424, 10
430, 23
431, 7
432, 10
433, 8
434, 12
440, 11
441, 20
442, 6
443, 12
444, 10
1000, 4
1001, 9
1002, 2
1003, 5
1004, 9
1010, 17
1011, 16
1012, 7
1013, 14
1014, 6
1020, 6
1021, 14
1022, 18
1023, 18
1024, 15
1030, 20
1031, 20
1032, 17
1033, 17
1034, 21
1040, 5
1041, 5
1042, 21
1043, 17
1044, 7
1100, 9
1101, 18
1102, 4
1103, 7
1104, 2
1110, 10
1111, 4
1112, 20
1113, 5
1114, 7
1120, 20
1121, 16
1122, 9
1123, 20
1124, 8
1130, 7
1131, 20
1132, 2
1133, 7
1134, 17
1140, 20
1141, 5
1142, 18
1143, 20
1144, 17
1200, 15
1201, 6
1202, 15
1203, 1
1204, 7
1210, 1
1211, 10
1212, 10
1213, 20
1214, 16
1220, 18
1221, 17
1222, 17
1223, 9
1224, 20
1230, 17
1231, 18
1232, 18
1233, 17
1234, 7
1240, 15
1241, 17
1242, 17
1243, 18
1244, 18
1300, 7
1301, 10
1302, 13
1303, 18
1304, 7
1310, 16
1311, 1
1312, 9
1313, 6
1314, 6
1320, 10
1321, 21
1322, 4
1323, 7
1324, 5
1330, 3
1331, 1
1332, 10
1333, 20
1334, 17
1340, 10
1341, 7
1342, 2
1343, 1
1344, 4
1400, 15
1401, 4
1402, 18
1403, 7
1404, 17
1410, 7
1411, 17
1412, 1
1413, 9
1414, 18
1420, 17
1421, 9
1422, 16
1423, 5
1424, 7
1430, 17
1431, 19
1432, 20
1433, 18
1434, 21
1440, 7
1441, 10
1442, 2
1443, 5
1444, 8
2000, 8
2001, 15
2002, 10
2003, 17
2004, 10
2010, 21
2011, 8
2012, 15
2013, 5
2014, 12
2020, 5
2021, 2
2022, 4
2023, 7
2024, 4
2030, 4
2031, 6
2032, 7
2033, 3
2034, 10
2040, 12
2041, 8
2042, 8
2043, 10
2044, 3
2100, 9
2101, 7
2102, 4
2103, 4
2104, 4
2110, 13
2111, 18
2112, 8
2113, 15
2114, 16
2120, 3
2121, 8
2122, 15
2123, 5
2124, 10
2130, 7
2131, 4
2132, 5
2133, 5
2134, 5
2140, 6
2141, 7
2142, 8
2143, 8
2144, 7
2200, 8
2201, 12
2202, 7
2203, 3
2204, 9
2210, 5
2211, 9
2212, 7
2213, 7
2214, 7
2220, 8
2221, 5
2222, 4
2223, 10
2224, 16
2230, 3
2231, 10
2232, 10
2233, 7
2234, 5
2240, 10
2241, 6
2242, 6
2243, 12
2244, 10
2300, 7
2301, 5
2302, 6
2303, 7
2304, 2
2310, 4
2311, 5
2312, 1
2313, 4
2314, 6
2320, 3
2321, 2
2322, 8
2323, 2
2324, 7
2330, 4
2331, 3
2332, 4
2333, 8
2334, 5
2340, 4
2341, 5
2342, 5
2343, 3
2344, 5
2400, 8
2401, 8
2402, 10
2403, 10
2404, 10
2410, 10
2411, 7
2412, 5
2413, 13
2414, 7
2420, 5
2421, 10
2422, 8
2423, 8
2424, 8
2430, 6
2431, 4
2432, 4
2433, 7
2434, 8
2440, 8
2441, 12
2442, 7
2443, 6
2444, 10
3000, 4
3001, 2
3002, 3
3003, 6
3004, 15
3010, 12
3011, 18
3012, 7
3013, 12
3014, 1
3020, 8
3021, 15
3022, 8
3023, 8
3024, 15
3030, 20
3031, 7
3032, 18
3033, 12
3034, 18
3040, 2
3041, 7
3042, 4
3043, 3
3044, 7
3100, 18
3101, 15
3102, 6
3103, 15
3104, 7
3110, 14
3111, 10
3112, 7
3113, 3
3114, 9
3120, 9
3121, 15
3122, 14
3123, 14
3124, 5
3130, 16
3131, 14
3132, 9
3133, 15
3134, 14
3140, 6
3141, 2
3142, 17
3143, 7
3144, 2
3200, 4
3201, 5
3202, 7
3203, 4
3204, 4
3210, 10
3211, 15
3212, 3
3213, 12
3214, 16
3220, 18
3221, 15
3222, 15
3223, 14
3224, 17
3230, 14
3231, 14
3232, 18
3233, 16
3234, 16
3240, 2
3241, 1
3242, 14
3243, 14
3244, 15
3300, 10
3301, 23
3302, 8
3303, 13
3304, 7
3310, 7
3311, 2
3312, 18
3313, 2
3314, 7
3320, 20
3321, 18
3322, 9
3323, 18
3324, 6
3330, 4
3331, 4
3332, 2
3333, 4
3334, 5
3340, 21
3341, 2
3342, 9
3343, 5
3344, 9
3400, 1
3401, 1
3402, 6
3403, 6
3404, 1
3410, 5
3411, 13
3412, 6
3413, 14
3414, 16
3420, 14
3421, 16
3422, 19
3423, 10
3424, 18
3430, 2
3431, 1
3432, 14
3433, 14
3434, 4
3440, 1
3441, 1
3442, 3
3443, 1
3444, 2
4000, 18
4001, 4
4002, 14
4003, 15
4004, 14
4010, 2
4011, 7
4012, 4
4013, 2
4014, 7
4020, 6
4021, 2
4022, 14
4023, 4
4024, 2
4030, 20
4031, 18
4032, 9
4033, 18
4034, 9
4040, 12
4041, 18
4042, 10
4043, 13
4044, 19
4100, 13
4101, 21
4102, 5
4103, 10
4104, 21
4110, 2
4111, 4
4112, 8
4113, 7
4114, 6
4120, 8
4121, 5
4122, 5
4123, 7
4124, 12
4130, 9
4131, 7
4132, 7
4133, 2
4134, 2
4140, 8
4141, 10
4142, 7
4143, 20
4144, 6
4200, 19
4201, 15
4202, 10
4203, 19
4204, 9
4210, 2
4211, 5
4212, 14
4213, 5
4214, 7
4220, 10
4221, 18
4222, 8
4223, 7
4224, 6
4230, 6
4231, 9
4232, 7
4233, 8
4234, 9
4240, 15
4241, 4
4242, 15
4243, 6
4244, 17
4300, 1
4301, 3
4302, 5
4303, 5
4304, 5
4310, 7
4311, 2
4312, 3
4313, 4
4314, 2
4320, 4
4321, 7
4322, 7
4323, 8
4324, 4
4330, 7
4331, 3
4332, 12
4333, 5
4334, 8
4340, 9
4341, 18
4342, 1
4343, 6
4344, 3
4400, 5
4401, 6
4402, 16
4403, 17
4404, 8
4410, 10
4411, 7
4412, 6
4413, 5
4414, 8
4420, 5
4421, 9
4422, 7
4423, 8
4424, 7
4430, 6
4431, 10
4432, 6
4433, 9
4434, 20
4440, 21
4441, 15
4442, 13
4443, 10
4444, 9
Will check back in four and post the actual results below to see how I
did. This forecast is for the US West coast region in daily bars. The
zone parameters are shown in the chart if you click the link above.
Good luck,
Steve |
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| Linc Madison |
| Posted: Wed May 16, 2007 3:18 am |
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In article <1179297311.958732.12880@p77g2000hsh.googlegroups.com>,
Saint Isadore Patron Saint of the Internet <tadapope@gmail.com> wrote:
Quote: I'm living on one area that is HIGHLY blessed and stable. The entire
area in all directions from my home for 5 miles will bevome an island
surounded by a mountain range ring shaped island, In other worlds
I'll be living on a 5 mile island in the middle of another donut
shape mountain range. I though very careful before moving to where I
live - having moved here from San Francisco and now - I feel
completely safe from any seismic major danger here in Laytonville.
Let's hear it for delusional thinking. You're about as safe as all
those people who moved from California up to Oregon and Washington to
get away from the earthquakes.... |
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