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Science Forum Index » Astro - Seti Forum » ETI is common in the universe rare on the scale of galaxies
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 Posted: Sun Apr 01, 2007 9:16 am |
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Fermi's paradox asks, where are they? The answer is ETIs like
ourselves are very rare, we may be the only living example of such
species in the entire cosmos. This due to two factors;
1) Our extremely short life span
2) Our extremely difficult developmental path
While single celled life on Earth arose quite quickly, after the
conditions were favorable for life, it took over 3 billion years for
multicelled life capable of making brains arose. After brains arose
technology quickly arose and appears to be headed toward a
technological singularity by 2030-2040 time frame. After that time
self-replicating machine systems of immense capacity are likely to
displace humans as the most powerful intelligences on Earth.
Humanity's tenure as the dominant technical species on this planet is
likely to be short, even if humans are ultimately highly successful.
Of course our tenure as a technical species may be short if we manage
to kill ourselves off.
So, the longevity of technical species such as ourselves is very
short. On the order of a century. And we are very rare, on the order
of one every 30 trillion stars.
Species that are incapable of producing a technological singularity do
not factor into the Fermi Paradox. We know where they are, stuck on
their planet of origin incapable of affecting us here.
Species capable of interstellar communication either wipe themselves
out or develop a technological singularity and give rise to a post-
biological intelligence which displaces them.
Prior to the development of high technology, species are incapable of
communicating either electronically or physically across interstellar
distances. After the development of high technology we are easily
capable of communicating across interstellar distances. First with
radio waves, later with light waves, later still by physical
transport.
However, the development of ever more powerful technologies gives rise
to an increasingly more powerful means of destruction to the species
developing that technology. The development of ever more powerful
weapons is clearly maladaptive.
The development of increasingly capable means of production spawns
excessive population growth and causes resource depletion and
environmental degradation. Again, highly maladaptive developments for
a biological species
Why did we develop technology then? We had the brains for it. The
development of large brains, and the associated development of high-
technology using those brains, is an example of sexual selection in
humans Humans with big brains tend to produce more offspring than
humans without big brains. Those with big brains flirt and make
themselve more sexually attractive. Thus big brains are selected for
the same way other excessively large organs are selected for
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_selection
So, we have big brains and high technology for the same reason
peacocks have large tail feathers. Excessively large brains result
from this process and along with it, increasing technological prowess
leading ultimately to a technological singularity or our demise
through abuse of technology. Species that don't follow this sort of
developmental path lack any capacity to affect or signal off their
world and so don't factor in to the Fermi paradox.
All technology, based as it is upon fundamental physical principals,
have the same end points in their development and those end points are
all reached in a century or so after the development of nuclear energy
due to the fact that technical development itself accelerates tehnical
development. So, all technologies tend to mature to their physical
limits at the same time. This is called a technological singularity.
Before the singularity life is limited and difficult. After the
singularity, everything that can be done in the physical world, is
easily attained. Including self replicating machine intelligences
capable of interstellar travel - aka von Neumann Probes.
The development of a species capable of spawning a technological
singularity is rare on the scale of galaxies, but common in the
cosmos. Best estimates using Drakes equation indicate you need about
30 trillion to hundred trillion stars to spawn a technological
singularity. Once the singularity has occurred, then that star system
becomes the point source of an expanding wave of self replicating
starships that engulf the host galaxy in less than a million years,
and engulfs surrounding galaxies in equally short periods after
transit times of millions to tens of millions of years.
So, a living world, like Earth, spawns life in less than a billion
years, and then gestates for over 3 billion years and produces sexual
multi-celled creatures that have brains. In less than a billion years
after brains,a technological singularity appears that becomes the
source of an exponentially expanding wave of self-replicating
starships that engulf billions of galaxies surrounding the point of
origin.
The stars composing the galaxies are broken up processed for their
metals and fusion occurs enclosed in energy collectors rendering them
invisible to outside observers. A portion of the industrial output is
made into daughter probes to repeat the process farther from the
origin. The balance of material and energy are available for
industrial use.
So, a survey of galaxies should show indications of regions of low
galaxy counts relative to the average.
An examination of the latest galaxy surveys shows that such spherical
voids do indeed exist in the numbers and sizes predicted by my
analysis. More detailed analysis will likely show that;
That technological singularities occurred no less than 500 million
years ago and no more than 800 million years ago - by looking at the
variation of 'void' size with distance from Earth.
That the rate of expansion ranges from 0.2 c (20% light speed) to 0.3
c (30% light speed) by looking at circularity with distance and size
variation with distance. .
That the spawning of a single technological singularity requires 30
trillion to 50 trillion stars.
Comparison of result 3 with the developmental time line of Earth gives
the fractions of all the components in the Drake Equation
If correct it is very likely that the Earth is under surveillance by
extra-galactic ETI (zoo hypothesis is correct) until we have spawned
our own post-biological intelligence, This is the result of the
explosive nature of the technological singularity, and the massive
ability to survey and affect the cosmos using self-replicating machine
system, along with a substantial head start of hundreds of millons of
years by the earliest ETIs.
This contact should occur about the time of our own technologicla
singularity predicted to occur by 2030-2040 AD time frame. At that
point, contact may be initiated by ETI and our own post-biological
intelligences will enter the cosmic nursery for the youngest of cosmic
intelligences. |
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