Tim Tyler <seemysig@cyberspace.org> wrote:
``George Wald (in Scientific American in 1954) popularized the
idea that chance would eventually produce a replicator,
given the age and size of the Earth. Only one success was
needed over that period of time, and the number of failures
did not matter. Others have put forward similar arguments.
They usually cite odds of a billion to one (one in 10^9)
against the formation of a replicator made or RNA or some
related material. The age of the Earth, on the other hand is
of the order of 10^17 seconds. If several attempts at
synthesizing a replicator were to take place every second
across the face of the Earth, then sooner or later success
would be expected (a near miss would be worthless, as the
product would have no mechanism to improve its
performance-it would simply decompose). It can be argued on
chemical grounds, however, that the odds of forming an RNA
replicator are perhaps 1 in 10^50 ( the numeral one followed
by fifty zeroes) or worse. Success would then require a
"near miracle," as described in a quote cited in my article.''
-
http://blog.sciam.com/index.php?title=simpler_origin_shapiro_replies
He is still as fixated as ever on the ridiculous 'RNA first' hypothesis.
No wonder he thinks replicators are not viable :-(
He's *responding* to the RNA first hypothesis in this passage.
