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gauger
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:42 am
Guest
Dear all,

I just come back from lunch where the following happened:

I sat at the table with ten persons, five on each side of the table.
Everybody can choose between two meals: paella or chicken.
Incidentally, those five people on the one side all had chicken, the
other five had paella.

Has anybody an idea on how to calculate that probability?

Thanks in advance

Uli
Gordon Sande
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:30 am
Guest
On 2007-01-18 08:42:21 -0400, "gauger" <ulrich.gauger@gmail.com> said:

Quote:
Dear all,

I just come back from lunch where the following happened:

I sat at the table with ten persons, five on each side of the table.
Everybody can choose between two meals: paella or chicken.
Incidentally, those five people on the one side all had chicken, the
other five had paella.

Has anybody an idea on how to calculate that probability?

Thanks in advance

Uli

If the five on one side were women and chose chicken while
the five on the other side were men and chose paella then
you would seem to have a nifty example of selection bias.

Selection bias upsets the freshman combinatorics examples
to make rare things happen much more often. And make other
configarations happen even less often.

All of which is commentary about how seriously to take the
combinatorics results. I will leave it to others to provide
those answers.
Old Mac User
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:31 am
Guest
In other words... "birds of a feather flock together". I've seen this
sort of seating arrangement happen many times, as at a conference room
table where all the chemists sat on one side and the chemical engineers
sat on the other side. This is not a "probability" that can be
calculated. It's human nature. OMU


Gordon Sande wrote:
Quote:
On 2007-01-18 08:42:21 -0400, "gauger" <ulrich.gauger@gmail.com> said:

Dear all,

I just come back from lunch where the following happened:

I sat at the table with ten persons, five on each side of the table.
Everybody can choose between two meals: paella or chicken.
Incidentally, those five people on the one side all had chicken, the
other five had paella.

Has anybody an idea on how to calculate that probability?

Thanks in advance

Uli

If the five on one side were women and chose chicken while
the five on the other side were men and chose paella then
you would seem to have a nifty example of selection bias.

Selection bias upsets the freshman combinatorics examples
to make rare things happen much more often. And make other
configarations happen even less often.

All of which is commentary about how seriously to take the
combinatorics results. I will leave it to others to provide
those answers.
Anon.
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:48 am
Guest
Old Mac User wrote:
Quote:
In other words... "birds of a feather flock together". I've seen this
sort of seating arrangement happen many times, as at a conference room
table where all the chemists sat on one side and the chemical engineers
sat on the other side. This is not a "probability" that can be
calculated. It's human nature. OMU

There might also be some reporting bias: a coincidence happened, and was

reported on. How come no one ever reports a coincidence that didn't happen?

Bob

--
Bob O'Hara

Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics
P.O. Box 68 (Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2b)
FIN-00014 University of Helsinki
Finland

Telephone: +358-9-191 51479
Mobile: +358 50 599 0540
Fax: +358-9-191 51400
WWW: http://www.RNI.Helsinki.FI/~boh/
Journal of Negative Results - EEB: http://www.jnr-eeb.org
J W
Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 2:26 am
Guest
gauger wrote:
Quote:
Dear all,

I just come back from lunch where the following happened:

I sat at the table with ten persons, five on each side of the table.
Everybody can choose between two meals: paella or chicken.
Incidentally, those five people on the one side all had chicken, the
other five had paella.

Has anybody an idea on how to calculate that probability?

Thanks in advance

Uli


Technically speaking, the probability is 1, since it happened. However,
the probability that it happens again *tomorrow* (assuming that anyone
can choose either dish) is

2 / 2^10 = 1 / 2^9 = 1/512 ~ 0.002

(the 2 is in the numerator because I'm assuming that the events

All Chicken ||| All Paella and
All Paella ||| All Chicken

are equivalent)

Did this actually happen, or was this just a very clever way of
eliciting an answer to a homework problem? ;)

-J
 
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