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Science Forum Index » Space - Consult Forum » probability problem
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| gauger |
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:42 am |
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Dear all,
I just come back from lunch where the following happened:
I sat at the table with ten persons, five on each side of the table.
Everybody can choose between two meals: paella or chicken.
Incidentally, those five people on the one side all had chicken, the
other five had paella.
Has anybody an idea on how to calculate that probability?
Thanks in advance
Uli |
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| Gordon Sande |
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:30 am |
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Guest
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On 2007-01-18 08:42:21 -0400, "gauger" <ulrich.gauger@gmail.com> said:
Quote: Dear all,
I just come back from lunch where the following happened:
I sat at the table with ten persons, five on each side of the table.
Everybody can choose between two meals: paella or chicken.
Incidentally, those five people on the one side all had chicken, the
other five had paella.
Has anybody an idea on how to calculate that probability?
Thanks in advance
Uli
If the five on one side were women and chose chicken while
the five on the other side were men and chose paella then
you would seem to have a nifty example of selection bias.
Selection bias upsets the freshman combinatorics examples
to make rare things happen much more often. And make other
configarations happen even less often.
All of which is commentary about how seriously to take the
combinatorics results. I will leave it to others to provide
those answers. |
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| Old Mac User |
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:31 am |
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Guest
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In other words... "birds of a feather flock together". I've seen this
sort of seating arrangement happen many times, as at a conference room
table where all the chemists sat on one side and the chemical engineers
sat on the other side. This is not a "probability" that can be
calculated. It's human nature. OMU
Gordon Sande wrote:
Quote: On 2007-01-18 08:42:21 -0400, "gauger" <ulrich.gauger@gmail.com> said:
Dear all,
I just come back from lunch where the following happened:
I sat at the table with ten persons, five on each side of the table.
Everybody can choose between two meals: paella or chicken.
Incidentally, those five people on the one side all had chicken, the
other five had paella.
Has anybody an idea on how to calculate that probability?
Thanks in advance
Uli
If the five on one side were women and chose chicken while
the five on the other side were men and chose paella then
you would seem to have a nifty example of selection bias.
Selection bias upsets the freshman combinatorics examples
to make rare things happen much more often. And make other
configarations happen even less often.
All of which is commentary about how seriously to take the
combinatorics results. I will leave it to others to provide
those answers. |
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| Anon. |
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:48 am |
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Guest
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Old Mac User wrote:
Quote: In other words... "birds of a feather flock together". I've seen this
sort of seating arrangement happen many times, as at a conference room
table where all the chemists sat on one side and the chemical engineers
sat on the other side. This is not a "probability" that can be
calculated. It's human nature. OMU
There might also be some reporting bias: a coincidence happened, and was
reported on. How come no one ever reports a coincidence that didn't happen?
Bob
--
Bob O'Hara
Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics
P.O. Box 68 (Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2b)
FIN-00014 University of Helsinki
Finland
Telephone: +358-9-191 51479
Mobile: +358 50 599 0540
Fax: +358-9-191 51400
WWW: http://www.RNI.Helsinki.FI/~boh/
Journal of Negative Results - EEB: http://www.jnr-eeb.org |
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| J W |
Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 2:26 am |
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Guest
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gauger wrote:
Quote: Dear all,
I just come back from lunch where the following happened:
I sat at the table with ten persons, five on each side of the table.
Everybody can choose between two meals: paella or chicken.
Incidentally, those five people on the one side all had chicken, the
other five had paella.
Has anybody an idea on how to calculate that probability?
Thanks in advance
Uli
Technically speaking, the probability is 1, since it happened. However,
the probability that it happens again *tomorrow* (assuming that anyone
can choose either dish) is
2 / 2^10 = 1 / 2^9 = 1/512 ~ 0.002
(the 2 is in the numerator because I'm assuming that the events
All Chicken ||| All Paella and
All Paella ||| All Chicken
are equivalent)
Did this actually happen, or was this just a very clever way of
eliciting an answer to a homework problem? ;)
-J |
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