JANUARY 2007 30-Day Forecast
515 PM EST Fri. Dec. 29, 2006

Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.

A warm phase has developed in the equatorial Pacific continues to
strengthen. Sea surface temperatures anomalies near the Equator in the
central and eastern Pacific are more than 1C above normal near 170E to
the South America coast. Anomalies are almost 2C in other areas in the
region.

The NAO and the AO are forecast to trend towards neutral. The PNA is
also forecast to be generally positive with a trend towards neutral in
the same period. This would tend to lead to colder temperatures across
the nation by mid-month. Other models however, indicate above normal
temperatures through the mid-month period. The ensemble means are in
generally good agreement with the circulation across North America. A
large area of negative anomalies is in the northeast Pacific. Positive
anomalies persist across much of Canada. This pattern prevents little
if any penetration of Arctic air into the nation until about mid-month.


Above normal temperatures are forecast for the Northwest, the northern
Rockies and the northern Plains. The probability of above normal
temperatures in this region is 58 percent. Below normal temperatures
are forecast in the Southwest into western Texas. The probability of
below normal temperatures across this region is 56 percent. The
remainder of the nation is expected to average near normal with no
significant deviation from normal climatology.

Above normal precipitation is forecast for the Northwest. The
probability of above normal precipitation in this region is 58 percent.
Below normal precipitation is forecast across much of the Southwest,
the western Rockies, and the central and northern Plains. The
probability of above normal precipitation in this area is 56 percent.
Another area of above normal precipitation is across the southern
Plains, the Southeast and the lower mid-Atlantic. The probability of
above normal precipitation in this region is 56 percent. The remainder
of the nation is expected to average near normal with no significant
deviation from normal climatology.

Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx