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Science Forum Index » Geology - Meteorology Forum » Dec-2006-Feb 2007 90-Day Forecast
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| james.munley@netzero.net |
 Posted: Mon Dec 04, 2006 1:40 pm |
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Guest
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DECEMBER 2006-FEBRUARY 2007
90-Day Forecast
12:30 PM EDT Mon. Dec. 4, 2006
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, various models, observed cases from past summers and sea surface
temperatures in the tropical Pacific where used in this forecast.
A warm phase has developed in the equatorial Pacific and this phase is
forecast to continue. Sea surface temperatures are more than 1C above
normal along the Equator and in an area from 170E to the South American
coast. Anomalies are also in excess of 2C in some locations. Sea
surface temperatures are well above normal from the surface to 100
meters in the eastern Pacific and to depths of 200 meters near the Date
Line. In addition, the heat content is ample enough to sustain above
normal sea surface temperatures.
The NAO is currently in a positive phase and is forecast to remain
positive during the next two weeks. The PNA is currently in a negative
phase and is forecast to trend towards positive for the same period. AO
also positive and is forecast to trend towards negative. The 500-HPA
circulation is forecast to consist of strong positive heights
associated with a ridge across western North America. Negative heights
along with a strong mid-latitude flow across the Pacific to the West
coast. A trough will be in the East.
Above normal temperatures are expected across the Northwest across
northern and central California into the northwestern Rockies. The
probability of above normal temperatures in this region is 57 percent.
Below normal temperatures are expected across the Great Lakes, the Ohio
Valley, the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. The probability of below normal
temperatures across this region is 56 percent. The remainder of the
nation is expected to be near normal with no significant deviation from
climatology.
Above normal precipitation is expected across the southern tier of the
nation and northeast across the eastern states. The probability of
below normal precipitation is this region is 57 percent. Another area
of above normal precipitation is expected across the Northwest. The
probability of above normal precipitation in this region is 58 percent.
Below normal precipitation is expected across the northern Rockies, the
northern Plains and the upper Mississippi Valley. The probability of
below normal precipitation across this region is 57 percent. The
remainder of the nation is expected to be near normal with no
significant deviation from climatology.
Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx |
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