Main Page | Report this Page
 
   
Science Forum Index  »  Nanotechnology Forum  »  You say you got a real solution …
Page 1 of 1    
Author Message
Howard Lovy
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2003 4:30 pm
Guest
Now that some key pieces of the nanotech Tinkertoy set have been dumped
out onto the playroom floor, it's time to snap the parts together into
airplanes, pirate ships and Ferris wheels. Something like that, in
effect, is what University of California, Berkeley professor Arun
Majumdar said in Ron Wilson's excellent EE Times piece about a Sept. 17
Stanford University symposium on energy and nanotechnology.

The Berkeley professor then threw in his support for the growing list of
nanotech scientists and critics alike who want to see this infant
industrial revolution grow up to benefit "all humanity," and not just
the guys with the top hats and monocles.

"Only about a hundred million people in the world have incomes over
$20,000 per year," Wilson quotes Majumdar as saying. "But we direct all
of our technology development at this minority, and assure ourselves
that the benefit will trickle down to the majority at the bottom,
earning less than $2,000 per year. It's time to look at the needs of
that majority - with little to spend, but with huge needs and huge numbers."

This echoes a theme espoused, in various ways, by many nanotechnology
thought leaders, from Doug Parr of Greenpeace to Tim Harper of CMP
Cientifica to Eric Drexler of Foresight. In at least vocalizing the hope
that promising new technology will be used for the betterment of mankind
rather than the enrichment of a few and the destruction of many,
Majumdar joins himself, in spirit, with the likes of Einstein,
Oppenheimer and others.

But also remember that these giants of science took to their graves an
element of sadness in the circuitous path their life's work had taken
between the joy and promise of discovery and ultimate application in the
hands of the political and business sectors.


For the full commentary, please see Howard Lovy's NanoBot

http://nanobot.blogspot.com/2003_09_14_nanobot_archive.html#106410917929695399
Malcolm McMahon
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2003 10:48 am
Guest
On 24 Sep 2003 22:30:09 GMT, Howard Lovy <hlovy@earthlink.net> wrote:

Quote:
The Berkeley professor then threw in his support for the growing list of
nanotech scientists and critics alike who want to see this infant
industrial revolution grow up to benefit "all humanity," and not just
the guys with the top hats and monocles.

Very noble no doubt, but isn't it much to early for any such direction
to be applied? Nobody can predict, at this stage, what the end
applications of various lines of development are likely to be.

And isn't it rather arrogant of we rich people do decide what products
suit the poor?
Chris Phoenix
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2003 4:44 pm
Guest
Malcolm McMahon wrote (rearranged by CJP):
Quote:
And isn't it rather arrogant of we rich people do decide what products
suit the poor?

Molecular manufacturing will be able (at some point--I think relatively
soon) to do general-purpose fabrication and assembly. At this point,
it's not a matter of deciding on individual products; it's a matter of
whether the technology is available to them, to make the products they
want at prices they can afford, or whether it's entirely controlled by
the commercial or military interests of rich/powerful countries.

Many products of MNT will be cheap at $1000/gram; for example, computers
and medical devices. But it could also be used for other things, like
water filters, that can't sustain such a high price. If the "owners" of
the technology argue that allowing MNT to be used for cheap products
will somehow reduce their ability to make money when selling expensive
products to rich people, then it's quite possible that the
legal/political infrastructure will prevent lifesaving products from
being made at all. (I'd give present-day examples of similar policies,
but that's probably too political for this group's charter.)

Quote:
Very noble no doubt, but isn't it much to early for any such direction
to be applied? Nobody can predict, at this stage, what the end
applications of various lines of development are likely to be.

For nanoscale technologies you may be right, since they're a lot of
individual discoveries/applications. But for MNT, we can predict with a
fair degree of confidence that its end application will be
general-purpose manufacture of cheap and highly effective products.

And we can see trouble coming a decade ahead. It's certainly not too
early to talk about things like IP policy, international trade
agreements, and even the proper context of money-making (vs. security,
and vs. abundance). These issues will have a huge impact on how MNT is
developed and deployed. And if we let things happen by default, we'll
get some horrible policy and millions--possibly billions-- of
preventable deaths.

Chris

--
Chris Phoenix cphoenix@best.com http://xenophilia.org
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (co-founder) http://CRNano.org
oker
Posted: Fri Sep 26, 2003 6:54 am
Guest
[ NOTE: 'SOCIAL:' meta-tag added to subject line. -- /gdp ]


Malcolm McMahon <malcolm@theriomorph.me.uk> wrote in message
news:<bkv68i07rf@enews1.newsguy.com>...
Quote:
On 24 Sep 2003 22:30:09 GMT, Howard Lovy <hlovy@earthlink.net> wrote:

The Berkeley professor then threw in his support for the growing list of
nanotech scientists and critics alike who want to see this infant
industrial revolution grow up to benefit "all humanity," and not just
the guys with the top hats and monocles.

Very noble no doubt, but isn't it much to early for any such direction
to be applied? Nobody can predict, at this stage, what the end
applications of various lines of development are likely to be.

And isn't it rather arrogant of we rich people do decide what products
suit the poor?

I knew my last post was going to be iffy!

Anyway's, I think the originiators of this tech want it, and so they
don't want the masses voting out their technology. At least, that is
one reason the rich and the creators are tripping over each other to
say we are on the good side!
Malcolm McMahon
Posted: Fri Sep 26, 2003 6:56 am
Guest
On 25 Sep 2003 22:44:29 GMT, Chris Phoenix <cphoenix@best.com> wrote:

Quote:
If the "owners" of
the technology argue that allowing MNT to be used for cheap products
will somehow reduce their ability to make money when selling expensive
products to rich people, then it's quite possible that the
legal/political infrastructure will prevent lifesaving products from
being made at all.

I don't see how that argument could be made, but I see the other side,
that if venture capital today doesn't see the prospect of huge initial
profits from MNT then they aren't going to contribute to funding it's
development. That future windfall is necessary to fund development now.

In fact general purpose manufacturing won't come soon. Products will
appear in an order determined by the way in which the technology
develops, rather than what is wanted. First come the novel materials.
Then, almost certainly, chemical and biochemical sensors.
Chris Phoenix
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2003 8:16 pm
Guest
Malcolm McMahon wrote:
Quote:

On 25 Sep 2003 22:44:29 GMT, Chris Phoenix <cphoenix@best.com> wrote:

If the "owners" of
the technology argue that allowing MNT to be used for cheap products
will somehow reduce their ability to make money when selling expensive
products to rich people, then it's quite possible that the
legal/political infrastructure will prevent lifesaving products from
being made at all.

I don't see how that argument could be made, but I see the other side,
that if venture capital today doesn't see the prospect of huge initial
profits from MNT then they aren't going to contribute to funding it's
development. That future windfall is necessary to fund development now.

I hope the moderators let this one through, because I can't answer you
without talking about recent politics...

[ I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt, BUT, followup posters are urged
to concentrate on responding to the technical points, rather than debating
the political issues !!! -- /gdp ]


we see similar arguments being
used today. For example, the US pharmaceutical industries lobbied to
kill a WTO deal that would have made cheaper medicines available in
poorer countries. They were quite successful, causing a last-minute
torpedoing of the deal by the White House a few months ago, and more
recently, attaching various difficult conditions to the deal.

Quote:
In fact general purpose manufacturing won't come soon. Products will
appear in an order determined by the way in which the technology
develops, rather than what is wanted. First come the novel materials.
Then, almost certainly, chemical and biochemical sensors.

The question is how rapidly the technology can develop to the stage of
general purpose manufacturing. As I've said in other posts, I think it
could develop quite rapidly: small mechanochemistry devices, capable of
fabricating duplicates of their working parts (but not of autonomous
self-replication--the computers would be external for efficiency), is
pretty much all that's needed. We have primitive and large
mechanochemistry devices today. We have conceptual, and even high-level
mechanical, designs for the small mechanochemical fabricators. We have
lots of enabling technologies--probably we're already at the point where
the experimental work will be more integration than invention.

The only thing we don't have (in America, and apparently in Europe) is
an understanding of what's technically possible and what it means. But
we can't judge worldwide progress just by looking at our own
institutional blindness. A Sputnik-like surprise in the next five years
would not surprise me at all.

Chris

--
Chris Phoenix cphoenix@best.com http://xenophilia.org
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (co-founder) http://CRNano.org
Malcolm McMahon
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2003 9:16 pm
Guest
On 29 Sep 2003 02:16:53 GMT, Chris Phoenix <cphoenix@best.com> wrote:

Quote:
As I've said in other posts, I think it
could develop quite rapidly: small mechanochemistry devices, capable of
fabricating duplicates of their working parts (but not of autonomous
self-replication--the computers would be external for efficiency), is
pretty much all that's needed.

For making _small_ workpieces, maybe (small, meaning maybe hundreds of
molecules). For manufacturing macroscopic objects you really start to
need exponential production.

That's why sensors are likely to be the dominant use of active MNT for
some time. Chemical sensors only need to act on a few molecules at most.
Chris Phoenix
Posted: Fri Oct 03, 2003 9:06 pm
Guest
Malcolm McMahon wrote:
Quote:

On 29 Sep 2003 02:16:53 GMT, Chris Phoenix <cphoenix@best.com> wrote:

As I've said in other posts, I think it
could develop quite rapidly: small mechanochemistry devices, capable of
fabricating duplicates of their working parts (but not of autonomous
self-replication--the computers would be external for efficiency), is
pretty much all that's needed.

For making _small_ workpieces, maybe (small, meaning maybe hundreds of
molecules). For manufacturing macroscopic objects you really start to
need exponential production.

That's why sensors are likely to be the dominant use of active MNT
for some time. Chemical sensors only need to act on a few molecules
at most.

It turns out to be surprisingly easy to integrate quadrillions of
autoproductive duplicators into a nanofactory that can make big products
by joining the products together. I have a 58-page peer-reviewed paper
in press analyzing how to do this. I'll announce here when it's
published.

Of course, bootstrapping the nanofactory does require exponential
production. But the point is that it's not much harder than making
quadrillions of free-floating fabricators. So, pretty soon after we can
make sensors with MNT, we'll be making human-scale products.

Chris

--
Chris Phoenix cphoenix@best.com http://xenophilia.org
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (co-founder) http://CRNano.org
Malcolm McMahon
Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2003 11:53 am
Guest
On 4 Oct 2003 03:06:01 GMT, Chris Phoenix <cphoenix@best.com> wrote:

Quote:
Of course, bootstrapping the nanofactory does require exponential
production.

But then, that's the obstacle, isn't it? The first active nanomachines
are likely to be assembled directly by macroscopic devices like AFMs.
Then I'd expect a generation where a small chip of individually
manufuctured nanomachines is mounted on a macroscopic positioning
platform which moves it over the workpiece for a series of operations.

At this point you'll only be able to make them in thousands.
Chris Phoenix
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2003 10:41 am
Guest
Malcolm McMahon wrote:
Quote:

On 4 Oct 2003 03:06:01 GMT, Chris Phoenix <cphoenix@best.com> wrote:

Of course, bootstrapping the nanofactory does require exponential
production.

But then, that's the obstacle, isn't it? The first active nanomachines
are likely to be assembled directly by macroscopic devices like AFMs.
Then I'd expect a generation where a small chip of individually
manufuctured nanomachines is mounted on a macroscopic positioning
platform which moves it over the workpiece for a series of operations.

At this point you'll only be able to make them in thousands.

If you can make an atomically precise fabricator that can duplicate its
own structure, it shouldn't be too hard to get from there to exponential
production. Have your first fabricator build two, side by side. Then
you control them in parallel to build four in a square. Those four
build a cube of eight, which unfolds to a 2x4 grid. The grid builds
2x2x4 which unfolds into 4x4. And so on...

The lists below are incomplete. Feel free to suggest other problems,
especially problems you expect to be hard.

Assumed to be already solved:
1) Environmental control.

Easy problems:
1) Controlling mostly in parallel, but with a few operations directed to
a subset of the fabricators.
2) Adding an unfolding mechanism.
3) (Maybe medium-hard) Building a nanoscale positioning mechanism to
replace the macroscale positioning mechanism

Medium-hard problems:
1) Building in onboard logic as the size increases, allowing faster
operation and more diverse production.
2) Redundancy in the face of radiation damage.
3) Connecting to the devices with control, power, chemicals. (Even the
smallest ones are probably >100 nm; you can connect buckytubes to them
with something like Zyvex's NanoManipulator.)

Tedious problems:
1) Transitioning from flat grids to 3D convergent assembly. (Lots of
easy and medium-hard subproblems here. I don't know of any hard ones,
all the way up to tabletop size.)

Problems that depend on the exact design:
1) Feedstock supply
2) Control of motion

Chris

--
Chris Phoenix cphoenix@best.com http://xenophilia.org
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (co-founder) http://CRNano.org
Malcolm McMahon
Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2003 10:00 am
Guest
On 5 Oct 2003 16:41:08 GMT, Chris Phoenix <cphoenix@best.com> wrote:

Quote:
If you can make an atomically precise fabricator that can duplicate its
own structure,

Then you're home free, but that's a long way beyond a fabricator
dependant on large, conventionally manufactured machines, which can come
nowhere near duplicating the whole structure.
 
Page 1 of 1       All times are GMT - 5 Hours
The time now is Wed Oct 08, 2008 4:17 am