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| Dan in Philly |
 Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:19 pm |
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"H. E. Taylor" wrote in message ...
[quote:8c8be49a45]2005/12/17: Asia Times: [Book Review] _Three Billion New Capitalists_ by
Clyde Prestowitz
The author ...
quite critical views of the future of the US.
[/quote:8c8be49a45]
Clyde has been writing the same book for 15 years. Check out some of his
earlier 'threat from Japan' stuff.
Dan in Philly |
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| Phil Scott |
| Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 3:24 am |
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"Dan in Philly" <djr8@aol.com> wrote in message
news:43a4b8ea$0$8135$a8266bb1@reader.corenews.com...
[quote:346e5f85d3]"H. E. Taylor" wrote in message ...
2005/12/17: Asia Times: [Book Review] _Three Billion New
Capitalists_ by
Clyde Prestowitz
The author ...
quite critical views of the future of the US.
Clyde has been writing the same book for 15 years. Check out
some of his earlier 'threat from Japan' stuff.
[/quote:346e5f85d3]
Toyota will soon be the biggest car maker in the US... Ford
and GM bonds are now junk rated, and GM cant pay its
retirement obligations into the future as its sales world wide
tank...due to japanese competition... next comes the chinese
cars... some of these are alternative fuel advances.
Is GM worried? Not actually. They are broadly diversified
into the Japanese, Korean and Chinese auto mfgrs, owning major
portions of some of these companies..and in the EU.
But GM is going out the bottom in the US, because its tax and
labor costs (high because of high income tax, and unions that
ran a bit over the edge, and now 2 retired GM workers for
every one working)... so its a problem.
Do not discount the economic effects on the US as the chinese
start making their own stuff..not buying from the US...and we
export the last of US capitol to china in exchange for their
goods.
Thats a bad formula no matter how you cut it.
It is also repeats in history for all nations.. it wont be
entirely sweet for the US over the next 100 years. I am not
a fan of the CIA myself, but their recent '5, 10 15 year
study'... predicts the same and gives the reasons.
Phil Scott
[quote:346e5f85d3]
Dan in Philly
[/quote:346e5f85d3] |
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| . |
| Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 10:42 am |
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philscott@philscott.net wrote...
[quote:981320ddd2]It is also repeats in history for all nations.. it wont be
entirely sweet for the US over the next 100 years. I am not
a fan of the CIA myself, but their recent '5, 10 15 year
study'... predicts the same and gives the reasons.
[/quote:981320ddd2]
Got a link to that CIA study? |
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| Dan in Philly |
| Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:26 am |
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"Phil Scott" wrote in message...
[quote:429a14949b]Do not discount the economic effects on the US as the chinese start making
their own stuff..not buying from the US...and we export the last of US
capitol to china in exchange for their goods.
[/quote:429a14949b]
The U.S. still has positive national savings - I don't have the numbers in
front of me, but I'm guessing about 10% of gdp. [In the gdp = c + g + i + nx
equation, it would be
(i + nx)/gdp ]
So long as it's positive, U.S. wealth/capital/assets will continue to
increase, even if we sell a lot to foreigners.
Dan in Philly |
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| Quirk |
| Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:35 am |
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Dan in Philly wrote:
[quote:ba53b0075a]"Phil Scott" wrote in message...
Do not discount the economic effects on the US as the chinese start making
their own stuff..not buying from the US...and we export the last of US
capitol to china in exchange for their goods.
The U.S. still has positive national savings - I don't have the numbers in
front of me, but I'm guessing about 10% of gdp. [In the gdp = c + g + i + nx
equation, it would be
(i + nx)/gdp ]
[/quote:ba53b0075a]
Net Savings 2005 Q3: -120.5 Billion. |
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| Mani Deli |
| Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 1:30 pm |
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On 18 Dec 2005 08:35:09 -0800, "Quirk" <quirk@syntac.net> wrote:
[quote:d025d638d2]Dan in Philly wrote:
"Phil Scott" wrote in message...
Do not discount the economic effects on the US as the chinese start making
their own stuff..not buying from the US...and we export the last of US
capitol to china in exchange for their goods.
The U.S. still has positive national savings - I don't have the numbers in
front of me, but I'm guessing about 10% of gdp. [In the gdp = c + g + i + nx
equation, it would be
(i + nx)/gdp ]
Net Savings 2005 Q3: -120.5 Billion.
[/quote:d025d638d2]
Lets hope the guy looks carefully and notices the minus sign. |
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| Les Cargill |
| Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 2:59 pm |
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Mani Deli wrote:
[quote:75d251299b]On 18 Dec 2005 08:35:09 -0800, "Quirk" <quirk@syntac.net> wrote:
Dan in Philly wrote:
"Phil Scott" wrote in message...
Do not discount the economic effects on the US as the chinese start making
their own stuff..not buying from the US...and we export the last of US
capitol to china in exchange for their goods.
The U.S. still has positive national savings - I don't have the numbers in
front of me, but I'm guessing about 10% of gdp. [In the gdp = c + g + i + nx
equation, it would be
(i + nx)/gdp ]
Net Savings 2005 Q3: -120.5 Billion.
Lets hope the guy looks carefully and notices the minus sign.
[/quote:75d251299b]
How factual is that, really? It's a good guess that a lot of
the negative is mortgage debt, which isn't "anti-savings" per
se. The hysteresis for mortgages is usually
positive - the payback cycle produces more wealth than
what went in, in dollar terms ( and assuming an endless
supply of greater suckers ).
I don't believe that the average Murkin put half a kilodollar on
the Visa in Q3 2005. That's just far too much to believe,
out of hand. The bankruptcy rate would be much
higher - that rate at minimum monthly payment produces
an absolute black hole state in less than five years.
And I'm assuming that doesn't include government debt,
which would account for a lot of that.
--
Les Cargill |
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| Phil Scott |
| Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 3:57 pm |
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"Dan in Philly" <djr8@aol.com> wrote in message
news:43a58db7$0$8154$a8266bb1@reader.corenews.com...
[quote:b5cea98115]"Phil Scott" wrote in message...
Do not discount the economic effects on the US as the
chinese start making their own stuff..not buying from the
US...and we export the last of US capitol to china in
exchange for their goods.
The U.S. still has positive national savings -
[/quote:b5cea98115]
OK thats the root of your miscomprehension... the US is
terminally deep in debt with no net national savings. Hyper
inflation figures not withstanding.
I don't have the numbers in
[quote:b5cea98115]front of me, but I'm guessing about 10% of gdp. [In the gdp
= c + g + i + nx equation, it would be
(i + nx)/gdp ]
[/quote:b5cea98115]
Its negative...grossly negative. Over a trillion dollars
a year, and over 7 trillion in debt as our industrial base is
in fast decline across most if not all major sectors.
Thats Trillion with a T.
[quote:b5cea98115]
So long as it's positive, U.S. wealth/capital/assets will
continue to increase, even if we sell a lot to foreigners.
[/quote:b5cea98115]
That is the flawed base of your view. The US is deeply
in debt with pension obligations most of its corporations are
in trouble on, many defaulted. Same with govt.
note:
positive thinking will not cure systemic corruption, it just
allows it to get worse. Exposing the corruption, rot and
error is the only way it ever gets cured... and that is the
most patriotic thing to do of course, cure the problem.
Phil Scott
[quote:b5cea98115]
Dan in Philly
[/quote:b5cea98115] |
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| Phil Scott |
| Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 3:58 pm |
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"Quirk" <quirk@syntac.net> wrote in message
news:1134923709.175543.117590@g44g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
[quote:cea5dabd23]Dan in Philly wrote:
"Phil Scott" wrote in message...
Do not discount the economic effects on the US as the
chinese start making
their own stuff..not buying from the US...and we export
the last of US
capitol to china in exchange for their goods.
The U.S. still has positive national savings - I don't have
the numbers in
front of me, but I'm guessing about 10% of gdp. [In the gdp
= c + g + i + nx
equation, it would be
(i + nx)/gdp ]
Net Savings 2005 Q3: -120.5 Billion.
[/quote:cea5dabd23]
Thats hot... with savings like that we will be half way dug
to china in two more years.
> |
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| Phil Scott |
| Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:00 pm |
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"Mani Deli" <mani@sympatico.ca> wrote in message
news:ekabq1hbu8ndk0gnqdou7n9942fsq5e6ro@4ax.com...
[quote:18fd15bf25]On 18 Dec 2005 08:35:09 -0800, "Quirk" <quirk@syntac.net
wrote:
Dan in Philly wrote:
"Phil Scott" wrote in message...
Do not discount the economic effects on the US as the
chinese start making
their own stuff..not buying from the US...and we export
the last of US
capitol to china in exchange for their goods.
The U.S. still has positive national savings - I don't
have the numbers in
front of me, but I'm guessing about 10% of gdp. [In the
gdp = c + g + i + nx
equation, it would be
(i + nx)/gdp ]
Net Savings 2005 Q3: -120.5 Billion.
Lets hope the guy looks carefully and notices the minus
sign.
[/quote:18fd15bf25]
He may just notice the talking heads on tee vee trying to pump
up the economy with smoke under GWB's direction... and he
might pull it off too... just look how well we have done in
Iraq...war over in just 3 weeks.
Phil Scott |
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| Phil Scott |
| Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:01 pm |
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"Les Cargill" <lNOcargill@cfl.Arr.com> wrote in message
news:ecjpf.40331$6e.637@tornado.tampabay.rr.com...
[quote:31c091386f]Mani Deli wrote:
On 18 Dec 2005 08:35:09 -0800, "Quirk" <quirk@syntac.net
wrote:
Dan in Philly wrote:
"Phil Scott" wrote in message...
Do not discount the economic effects on the US as the
chinese start making
their own stuff..not buying from the US...and we export
the last of US
capitol to china in exchange for their goods.
The U.S. still has positive national savings - I don't
have the numbers in
front of me, but I'm guessing about 10% of gdp. [In the
gdp = c + g + i + nx
equation, it would be
(i + nx)/gdp ]
Net Savings 2005 Q3: -120.5 Billion.
Lets hope the guy looks carefully and notices the minus
sign.
How factual is that, really? It's a good guess that a lot of
the negative is mortgage debt, which isn't "anti-savings"
per
se. The hysteresis for mortgages is usually
positive - the payback cycle produces more wealth than
what went in, in dollar terms ( and assuming an endless
supply of greater suckers ).
I don't believe that the average Murkin put half a
kilodollar on the Visa in Q3 2005. That's just far too much
to believe,
out of hand. The bankruptcy rate would be much
higher - that rate at minimum monthly payment produces
an absolute black hole state in less than five years.
[/quote:31c091386f]
At last some good noooz :)
Phil Scott
[quote:31c091386f]
And I'm assuming that doesn't include government debt,
which would account for a lot of that.
--
Les Cargill[/quote:31c091386f] |
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| Dan in Philly |
| Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2005 8:33 am |
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"Quirk" = wrote in message ...
[quote:f425b431ff]Net Personal Savings is -132.9 billion. Down from 104.6 at the
same time last year.
[/quote:f425b431ff]
Total national savings is larger, since it includes saving by firms. Using
the gross figures from the national income accounts for 2005q3
gdp consum govt dom. inv. net export
Q3 12589.60 8840.01 1987.20 2484.10 -721.70
So (domestic investment + net exports)/gdp gives you about 14%.
Or you can subtract depreciation, which lowers gdp and investment; you still
get about +2% as the savings rate.
Dan in Philly |
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| Quirk |
| Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2005 12:01 pm |
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Dan in Philly wrote:
[quote:cb1b76ceed]Total national savings is larger, since it includes saving by firms. Using
the gross figures from the national income accounts for 2005q3
[/quote:cb1b76ceed]
The figure I gave was the official Net national savings figure, as
published by the BEA (Table 5.1, Line 2) and does include the
undistributed profits of firms (Table 5.1, Line 5). No need to present
your own calculations, they are all available on line, custumizable and
graphable, on the BEA's website. |
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| Jim Blair |
| Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2005 3:07 pm |
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"H. E. Taylor" <het@despam.autobahn.mb.ca> wrote in message
news:43A3CAE1.4D3B@despam.autobahn.mb.ca...
......
[quote:28a1bcac16]
Moreover, European industrial goods have retained their
reputation of high quality and thus make it possible for
Europeans to sell their goods to China, for example, despite
what seems to be prohibitive prices because of the euro
exchange rate.
[/quote:28a1bcac16]
Hi,
http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/08/pf/autos/cr_auto_reliability/
Consumer Reports: Most reliable cars
Sedans from VW, Mercedes, BMW fare poorly while Japanese models take
the top spots.
etc.
,,,,,,,
_______________ooo___(_O O_)___ooo_______________
(_)
jim blair (jeblair@wisc.edu) Madison Wisconsin USA.
This message was brought to you using biodegradable
binary bits, and 100% recycled bandwidth. For a good
time call: http://www.geocities.com/capitolhill/4834 |
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