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Ercm
Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 6:00 pm
Guest
This word is overused so much that it is as annoying as the Head-On TV
commerial...
Dave Mayes
Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 6:00 pm
Guest
On Feb 13, 2:00 pm, "Ercm" <n...@none.nnn> wrote:
Quote:
This word is overused so much that it is as annoying as the Head-On TV
commerial...

I agree that anomaly is one of NASA's most overused words but what do
you expect from one of the government's premier scientific agencies?
I guess they could use the scientific term "bad day" a bit more to
describe what can happen when they have too many anomalies but "bad
day" is two words and the term "bad day" understates in an informal
sort of way the less complex and easily understood scientific term
CATASTROPHE. Fortunately, the Shuttle like all good NASA space launch
vehicles has a lot of redundant components that help prevent "bad
days" from happening over and over again. I hope I am not being too
redundant in addressing your foremost concern but I would be remiss if
I did not address your concerns in a Head-On" sort of way. Frankly I
hate those Head-On commercials too--they give me a headache.

Thanks for listening and please don't slip on the dripping sarcasm.

Dave
Todd H.
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:19 am
Guest
Dave Mayes <dmayes57@yahoo.com> writes:

Quote:
Frankly I hate those Head-On commercials too--they give me a
headache.

And worse still, the shit doesn't work, according to a test report I
saw.

--
Todd H.
http://toddh.net/
Brian Gaff
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:52 am
Guest
The most over used phrase is The big picture. It was used about 8 times in
an hour a couple of days ago by different people, closely followed by in
work, by the sound of it.

Brian

--
Brian Gaff - briang1@blueyonder.co.uk
Note:- In order to reduce spam, any email without 'Brian Gaff'
in the display name may be lost.
Blind user, so no pictures please!
"Ercm" <none@none.nnn> wrote in message
news:47b3686b$0$6510$4c368faf@roadrunner.com...
Quote:
This word is overused so much that it is as annoying as the Head-On TV
commerial...


Jeff Findley
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:49 pm
Guest
"Brian Gaff" <briang1@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote in message
news:UiTsj.6886$XI.5639@text.news.virginmedia.com...
Quote:
The most over used phrase is The big picture. It was used about 8 times in
an hour a couple of days ago by different people, closely followed by in
work, by the sound of it.

Managers are always using these sorts of "content free" phrases. There are
surely more than a few Dilbert cartoons which deal with this sort of thing.

Jeff
--
A clever person solves a problem.
A wise person avoids it. -- Einstein
Ercm
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:04 pm
Guest
"Todd H." <t@toddh.net> wrote in message news:841w7g6ugs.fsf@ripco.com...
Quote:
Dave Mayes <dmayes57@yahoo.com> writes:

Frankly I hate those Head-On commercials too--they give me a
headache.

And worse still, the shit doesn't work, according to a test report I
saw.

HeadOn is just another "As Seen on TV" scam...
Guest
Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 5:29 am
From Dave Mayes:
Quote:
On Feb 13, 2:00pm, "Ercm" <n...@none.nnn> wrote:
This word is overused so much that it is as annoying as the Head-On TV
commerial...

I agree that anomaly is one of NASA's most overused words but what do
you expect from one of the government's premier scientific agencies?
I guess they could use the scientific term "bad day" a bit more to
describe what can happen when they have too many anomalies but "bad
day" is two words and the term "bad day" understates in an informal
sort of way the less complex and easily understood scientific term
CATASTROPHE.
snip


I agree with the overuse criticism. But compounding the problem is
the fact that the meaning of the term "anomaly" is often misunderstood
within NASA. The word is often used (misused) as a synonym for
"abnormal", "problem" or "failure". But the pure form of the word
does not inherently connote any negativity. It simply indicates a
deviation from the nominal. I'll repeat:

- An anomaly is simply a deviation from the nominal.

And this points toward the fact that an even more overused and
frequently misunderstood word at NASA is "nominal". This word is
commonly used as a synonym for "normal" or having "no problem". But
"nominal" does not necessarily indicate something that is positive.
Here's what it actually means:

- Nominal is simply a condition as it has been defined, good or bad.

A synonym for nominal would be "named" (akin to the word
"nominated"). A situation is defined, and then when it is
subsequently executed without deviation, the condition is "nominal".
Looking at the root "nom-", we can see that the two words "nominal"
and "anomaly" share the same root. One means "that which is named",
the other meaning "not that which is named" (negated by the prefix
"a-", similar to how the words "typical" and "atypical" are related).
So we can see that:

- The words "anomaly" and "nominal" are antonyms.

They are each other's opposites. This might seem like splitting
hairs, but there is a distinct advantage to using these strictly
accurate definitions. This question serves to illustrate:

What does "nominal RTLS" mean?

There are experts at NASA who see this as a contradiction in terms,
because they think of "nominal" as "good" and an abort as "bad". But
it is actually a perfectly accurate term. A nominal RTLS is simply an
RTLS that conforms to whatever was defined (named) as an RTLS. To
illustrate further, it is possible to set out to simulate an RTLS,
have something happen that was not planned (such as a planned engine
failure not happening) and then instead of flying an RTLS you end up
flying a perfect ascent trajectory.

This perfect ascent would be *an anomaly*. It was a deviation from
what was planned and expected.

These certainly aren't the only two words that are misused at NASA.
And the distinction here is more subtle than other words that are
egregiously misused (like misusing a word in a way that reveals a
failure to comprehend fundamental physics). But anomaly/nominal are
important words with specific meanings that can be more effective when
used properly.

....and going back to the original point, can be *even more* effective
when avoiding these words when not needed at all. But for those times
when these words are the best choice for clear, concise communication,
here is a plug for using them properly!


~ CT
maxson@mission51l.com
Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 8:43 am
Guest
On Feb 20, 9:29 am, tdadamemd-spamblo...@excite.com wrote:
Quote:

I agree with the overuse criticism.  But compounding the problem is
the fact that the meaning of the term "anomaly" is often misunderstood
within NASA.  The word is often used (misused) as a synonym for
"abnormal", "problem" or "failure".  But the pure form of the word
does not inherently connote any negativity.  It simply indicates a
deviation from the nominal.  I'll repeat:

- An anomaly is simply a deviation from the nominal.

And this points toward the fact that an even more overused and
frequently misunderstood word at NASA is "nominal".  This word is
commonly used as a synonym for "normal" or having "no problem".  But
"nominal" does not necessarily indicate something that is positive.
Here's what it actually means:

- Nominal is simply a condition as it has been defined, good or bad.

A synonym for nominal would be "named" (akin to the word
"nominated").  A situation is defined, and then when it is
subsequently executed without deviation, the condition is "nominal".
Looking at the root "nom-", we can see that the two words "nominal"
and "anomaly" share the same root.  One means "that which is named",
the other meaning "not that which is named" (negated by the prefix
"a-", similar to how the words "typical" and "atypical" are related).
So we can see that:

- The words "anomaly" and "nominal" are antonyms.

They are each other's opposites.  This might seem like splitting
hairs, but there is a distinct advantage to using these strictly
accurate definitions.  This question serves to illustrate:

What does "nominal RTLS" mean?

There are experts at NASA who see this as a contradiction in terms,
because they think of "nominal" as "good" and an abort as "bad".  But
it is actually a perfectly accurate term.  A nominal RTLS is simply an
RTLS that conforms to whatever was defined (named) as an RTLS.  To
illustrate further, it is possible to set out to simulate an RTLS,
have something happen that was not planned (such as a planned engine
failure not happening) and then instead of flying an RTLS you end up
flying a perfect ascent trajectory.

This perfect ascent would be *an anomaly*.  It was a deviation from
what was planned and expected.

These certainly aren't the only two words that are misused at NASA.
And the distinction here is more subtle than other words that are
egregiously misused (like misusing a word in a way that reveals a
failure to comprehend fundamental physics).  But anomaly/nominal are
important words with specific meanings that can be more effective when
used properly.

...and going back to the original point, can be *even more* effective
when avoiding these words when not needed at all.  But for those times
when these words are the best choice for clear, concise communication,
here is a plug for using them properly!

~ CT

Using proper grammatical analysis then, NASA obviously treated O-ring
erosion prior to 51-L as "nominal," and rightly so in my opinion. You
may (and probably do) disagree with me about that. I'll let you tell
refresh my memory, rather than searching the archives.

On the other hand, launching a shuttle off Pad B for the first time
with neither a Wet Countdown Demonstration Test nor a Flight Readiness
Test could not possibly have been considered "nominal." Similarly,
waiving virtually countless more Launch Commit Criteria (many of them
verbally) than on any previous flight (or on any flight following, for
that matter) could not possibly have been considered "nominal."

Yet we don't hear much (if anything at all) about the latter -- that
unfathomable if not unforgiveable once-in-a-bloody-moon 51-L launch
anomaly -- unless it's on occasion, and from me. What redundantly
drowns out all other discussion is the repititious use of "anomalous"
to describe what Mulloy and his peers considered the "nominal"
behavior of the O-rings (based on their past performance).

In my opinion, the biggest offender in this regard was William Rogers
(corporate Lockheed's attorney), who was given authority by Reagan to
preside over the Challenger hearings, who promised to recuse himself
if anything came up concerning Lockheed, and who never did. He got a
big bang (chuckle) out of poking fun at NASA over its rather nominal
"anomaly." I'm sure you'll have a Lockheed-type reply of some sort,
CT; but I assure you, I can take the heat.

JTM
Guest
Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 9:52 am
On Feb 20, 1:43 pm, "max...@mission51l.com" <max...@mission51l.com>
wrote:
Quote:
On Feb 20, 9:29 am, tdadamemd-spamblo...@excite.com wrote:





I agree with the overuse criticism. But compounding the problem is
the fact that the meaning of the term "anomaly" is often misunderstood
within NASA. The word is often used (misused) as a synonym for
"abnormal", "problem" or "failure". But the pure form of the word
does not inherently connote any negativity. It simply indicates a
deviation from the nominal. I'll repeat:

- An anomaly is simply a deviation from the nominal.

And this points toward the fact that an even more overused and
frequently misunderstood word at NASA is "nominal". This word is
commonly used as a synonym for "normal" or having "no problem". But
"nominal" does not necessarily indicate something that is positive.
Here's what it actually means:

- Nominal is simply a condition as it has been defined, good or bad.

A synonym for nominal would be "named" (akin to the word
"nominated"). A situation is defined, and then when it is
subsequently executed without deviation, the condition is "nominal".
Looking at the root "nom-", we can see that the two words "nominal"
and "anomaly" share the same root. One means "that which is named",
the other meaning "not that which is named" (negated by the prefix
"a-", similar to how the words "typical" and "atypical" are related).
So we can see that:

- The words "anomaly" and "nominal" are antonyms.

They are each other's opposites. This might seem like splitting
hairs, but there is a distinct advantage to using these strictly
accurate definitions. This question serves to illustrate:

What does "nominal RTLS" mean?

There are experts at NASA who see this as a contradiction in terms,
because they think of "nominal" as "good" and an abort as "bad". But
it is actually a perfectly accurate term. A nominal RTLS is simply an
RTLS that conforms to whatever was defined (named) as an RTLS. To
illustrate further, it is possible to set out to simulate an RTLS,
have something happen that was not planned (such as a planned engine
failure not happening) and then instead of flying an RTLS you end up
flying a perfect ascent trajectory.

This perfect ascent would be *an anomaly*. It was a deviation from
what was planned and expected.

These certainly aren't the only two words that are misused at NASA.
And the distinction here is more subtle than other words that are
egregiously misused (like misusing a word in a way that reveals a
failure to comprehend fundamental physics). But anomaly/nominal are
important words with specific meanings that can be more effective when
used properly.

...and going back to the original point, can be *even more* effective
when avoiding these words when not needed at all. But for those times
when these words are the best choice for clear, concise communication,
here is a plug for using them properly!

~ CT

Using proper grammatical analysis then, NASA obviously treated O-ring
erosion prior to 51-L as "nominal," and rightly so in my opinion. You
may (and probably do) disagree with me about that. I'll let you tell
refresh my memory, rather than searching the archives.

On the other hand, launching a shuttle off Pad B for the first time
with neither a Wet Countdown Demonstration Test nor a Flight Readiness
Test could not possibly have been considered "nominal." Similarly,
waiving virtually countless more Launch Commit Criteria (many of them
verbally) than on any previous flight (or on any flight following, for
that matter) could not possibly have been considered "nominal."

Yet we don't hear much (if anything at all) about the latter -- that
unfathomable if not unforgiveable once-in-a-bloody-moon 51-L launch
anomaly -- unless it's on occasion, and from me. What redundantly
drowns out all other discussion is the repititious use of "anomalous"
to describe what Mulloy and his peers considered the "nominal"
behavior of the O-rings (based on their past performance).

In my opinion, the biggest offender in this regard was William Rogers
(corporate Lockheed's attorney), who was given authority by Reagan to
preside over the Challenger hearings, who promised to recuse himself
if anything came up concerning Lockheed, and who never did. He got a
big bang (chuckle) out of poking fun at NASA over its rather nominal
"anomaly." I'm sure you'll have a Lockheed-type reply of some sort,
CT; but I assure you, I can take the heat.

You will hear a reply because this is BS. You are polluting another
thread with your slanted agenda

Launching off a new pad is not a basis for an FRF and there were
tanking tests
maxson@mission51l.com
Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 10:23 am
Guest
On Feb 20, 1:52 pm, behlin...@gmail.com wrote:
Quote:
On Feb 20, 1:43 pm, "max...@mission51l.com" <max...@mission51l.com
wrote:





On Feb 20, 9:29 am, tdadamemd-spamblo...@excite.com wrote:

I agree with the overuse criticism.  But compounding the problem is
the fact that the meaning of the term "anomaly" is often misunderstood
within NASA.  The word is often used (misused) as a synonym for
"abnormal", "problem" or "failure".  But the pure form of the word
does not inherently connote any negativity.  It simply indicates a
deviation from the nominal.  I'll repeat:

- An anomaly is simply a deviation from the nominal.

And this points toward the fact that an even more overused and
frequently misunderstood word at NASA is "nominal".  This word is
commonly used as a synonym for "normal" or having "no problem".  But
"nominal" does not necessarily indicate something that is positive.
Here's what it actually means:

- Nominal is simply a condition as it has been defined, good or bad.

A synonym for nominal would be "named" (akin to the word
"nominated").  A situation is defined, and then when it is
subsequently executed without deviation, the condition is "nominal".
Looking at the root "nom-", we can see that the two words "nominal"
and "anomaly" share the same root.  One means "that which is named",
the other meaning "not that which is named" (negated by the prefix
"a-", similar to how the words "typical" and "atypical" are related).
So we can see that:

- The words "anomaly" and "nominal" are antonyms.

They are each other's opposites.  This might seem like splitting
hairs, but there is a distinct advantage to using these strictly
accurate definitions.  This question serves to illustrate:

What does "nominal RTLS" mean?

There are experts at NASA who see this as a contradiction in terms,
because they think of "nominal" as "good" and an abort as "bad".  But
it is actually a perfectly accurate term.  A nominal RTLS is simply an
RTLS that conforms to whatever was defined (named) as an RTLS.  To
illustrate further, it is possible to set out to simulate an RTLS,
have something happen that was not planned (such as a planned engine
failure not happening) and then instead of flying an RTLS you end up
flying a perfect ascent trajectory.

This perfect ascent would be *an anomaly*.  It was a deviation from
what was planned and expected.

These certainly aren't the only two words that are misused at NASA.
And the distinction here is more subtle than other words that are
egregiously misused (like misusing a word in a way that reveals a
failure to comprehend fundamental physics).  But anomaly/nominal are
important words with specific meanings that can be more effective when
used properly.

...and going back to the original point, can be *even more* effective
when avoiding these words when not needed at all.  But for those times
when these words are the best choice for clear, concise communication,
here is a plug for using them properly!

~ CT

Using proper grammatical analysis then, NASA obviously treated O-ring
erosion prior to 51-L as "nominal," and rightly so in my opinion. You
may (and probably do) disagree with me about that. I'll let you tell
refresh my memory, rather than searching the archives.

On the other hand, launching a shuttle off Pad B for the first time
with neither a Wet Countdown Demonstration Test nor a Flight Readiness
Test could not possibly have been considered "nominal." Similarly,
waiving virtually countless more Launch Commit Criteria (many of them
verbally) than on any previous flight (or on any flight following, for
that matter) could not possibly have been considered "nominal."

Yet we don't hear much (if anything at all) about the latter -- that
unfathomable if not unforgiveable once-in-a-bloody-moon 51-L launch
anomaly -- unless it's on occasion, and from me. What redundantly
drowns out all other discussion is the repititious use of "anomalous"
to describe what Mulloy and his peers considered the "nominal"
behavior of the O-rings (based on their past performance).

In my opinion, the biggest offender in this regard was William Rogers
(corporate Lockheed's attorney), who was given authority by Reagan to
preside over the Challenger hearings, who promised to recuse himself
if anything came up concerning Lockheed, and who never did. He got a
big bang (chuckle) out of poking fun at NASA over its rather nominal
"anomaly." I'm sure you'll have a Lockheed-type reply of some sort,
CT; but I assure you, I can take the heat.

You will hear a reply because this is BS.  You are polluting another
thread with your slanted agenda

To borrow a worn-out phrase from that era, "There you go
again!" (Sorta like "my friend[s]" these days.)

Quote:
Launching off a new pad is not a basis for an FRF

Oh really now? They sure as shootin' had one before Return to Launch
three years later -- after canceling the non-functional Centaur and
its Pad B components, shutting down the non-functional Vandenberg
Launch Site, and awarding Lockheed PLENTY in new money to rebulid Pad
B, its hydrogen dewar, its flare stack, and its facility plumbing --
after laying off thousands. Even then, the FRF failed because of
hydrogen leaks in the Tail Service Masts.

Quote:
and there were tanking tests

There were failed launch attempts, during which the left SRB was cold-
soaked during tanking -- because of LH2 leaks. Read the House Report.
They were well below redline the morning BEFORE the cold weather
rolled in. Lamberth granted waivers. Lockheed hired him later as Vice
President, at an unheard of salary.

There was *no* WCDT, and one *was* needed!

JTM
Dave Mayes
Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 9:30 am
Guest
On Feb 20, 7:29 am, tdadamemd-spamblo...@excite.com wrote:
Quote:
From Dave Mayes:> On Feb 13, 2:00pm, "Ercm" <n...@none.nnn> wrote:

I agree that anomaly is one of NASA's most overused words but what do
you expect from one of the government's premier scientific agencies?...


Quote:
I agree with the overuse criticism.  But compounding the problem is
the fact that the meaning of the term "anomaly" is often misunderstood
within NASA.  The word is often used (misused) as a synonym for
"abnormal", "problem" or "failure".  But the pure form of the word
does not inherently connote any negativity.  It simply indicates a
deviation from the nominal.  I'll repeat:

- An anomaly is simply a deviation from the nominal.

And exactly what is a deviation from the nominal? How does one define
the term deviation? Let us use the shuttle's Caution and Warning
system and the System Management alert system as examples of anomaly
detection. Both systems provide aural and visual cues of anomalous
performance of key flight systems in real-time; however, the C & W
system provides alerts that can be catastrophic while the SM system is
a bit more advisory. So NASA can report two very different types of
anomalous performance--mission/life threatening, and much lesser
anomalies. It is the more serious anomalies that NASA publicly reports
that get our attention and that have contributed to the public
perception that anomalies connote "abnormal" "problem" and "failure".
So I guess you can blame the media and NASA PAO for the somewhat
misleading use of the term anomaly.

While NASA PAO does report some of the smaller anomalies, most of them
go unnoticed. You have to go to the post mission data analyses to get
into the overall set of mission anomalies. The analysis and detection
of anomalies can often be ciphered out only in terms of statistics
using two and three sigma deviations from a performance envelope
aspect. In other words anomalies may not be seen real-time because the
anomalous data must be compared to all or several prior missions.

While there certainly are inconsequential anomalies, all shuttle
performance anomalies need to be taken seriously and studied so that
they are well understood to insure a safe manned space flight
program.

NASA appears to have gotten itself into a lot of trouble by
misunderstanding the significance of observed anomalies. In the past,
NASA has taken clearly anomalous data and standardized (diluted) it to
the point that becomes virtually nominal. Such engineering
rationalization can lead to a "major malfunction".

Dave
Guest
Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 9:45 am
From JTM (maxson@mission51l.com):

Quote:
Using proper grammatical analysis then, NASA obviously treated O-ring
erosion prior to 51-L as "nominal," and rightly so in my opinion. You
may (and probably do) disagree with me about that. I'll let you tell
refresh my memory, rather than searching the archives.

I don't remember ever having commented here before on whether or not
the o-ring problem was seen as nominal. I can see your point. If
this condition had been defined as what to expect for a typical
launch, then yes, it would become the nominal. But it is not merely
the expectation of a result that makes it nominal. You would need to
define the aberrant condition before a term like "nominal O-ring
erosion" could have meaning. I am not aware of that ever having been
done.

Mike Mullane, however, is an astronaut who is quite outspoken in
publicly cautioning against the Normalization of Deviance. He
preaches 51L as his prime cautionary example. His view seems to fit
with what you are saying. I expect that he would agree with the view
that O-ring erosion was treated as a nominal condition. If not
formally defined, then in some psychological sense.

Quote:
On the other hand, launching a shuttle off Pad B for the first time
with neither a Wet Countdown Demonstration Test nor a Flight Readiness
Test could not possibly have been considered "nominal." Similarly,
waiving virtually countless more Launch Commit Criteria (many of them
verbally) than on any previous flight (or on any flight following, for
that matter) could not possibly have been considered "nominal."

Yet we don't hear much (if anything at all) about the latter -- that
unfathomable if not unforgiveable once-in-a-bloody-moon 51-L launch
anomaly -- unless it's on occasion, and from me. What redundantly
drowns out all other discussion is the repititious use of "anomalous"
to describe what Mulloy and his peers considered the "nominal"
behavior of the O-rings (based on their past performance).

In my opinion, the biggest offender in this regard was William Rogers
(corporate Lockheed's attorney), who was given authority by Reagan to
preside over the Challenger hearings, who promised to recuse himself
if anything came up concerning Lockheed, and who never did. He got a
big bang (chuckle) out of poking fun at NASA over its rather nominal
"anomaly." I'm sure you'll have a Lockheed-type reply of some sort,
CT; but I assure you, I can take the heat.

You probably know me well enough to know that I am not a Lockheed
apologist (nor NASA, nor any other aerospace entity). I call it like
I see it, with a goal of seeking a perspective that is purged of
biases. I appreciate being exposed to non-conformal points of view
even if seen to be far from the norm. If nothing else, they challenge
us to examine our own beliefs for accuracy.


~ CT
Guest
Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 9:56 am
tdadamemd-spamblo...@excite.com wrote:
Quote:
From JTM (maxson@mission51l.com):

Using proper grammatical analysis then, NASA obviously treated O-ring
erosion prior to 51-L as "nominal," and rightly so in my opinion. You
may (and probably do) disagree with me about that. I'll let you tell
refresh my memory, rather than searching the archives.

I don't remember ever having commented here before on whether or not
the o-ring problem was seen as nominal. I can see your point. If
this condition had been defined as what to expect for a typical
launch, then yes, it would become the nominal. But it is not merely
the expectation of a result that makes it nominal. You would need to
define the aberrant condition before a term like "nominal O-ring
erosion" could have meaning. I am not aware of that ever having been
done.

Mike Mullane, however, is an astronaut who is quite outspoken in
publicly cautioning against the Normalization of Deviance. He
preaches 51L as his prime cautionary example. His view seems to fit
with what you are saying. I expect that he would agree with the view
that O-ring erosion was treated as a nominal condition. If not
formally defined, then in some psychological sense.

I just found a quote from his website:

========
Guarding against a "Normalization of Deviance"

Normalization of deviance is a long term phenomenon in which
individuals or teams repeatedly accept a lower standard of performance
until that lower standard becomes the "norm". Usually, the acceptance
of the lower standard occurs because the individual/team is under
pressure (budget, schedule, etc.) and perceives it will be too
difficult to adhere to the expected standard. Their intention may be
to revert back to the higher standard when this period of pressure
passes. However, by "getting away" with the deviation, it is likely
they will do the same thing when the same stressful circumstances
arise again. Over time, the individual/team fails to see their actions
as deviant.

Mullane uses the Challenger tragedy to make this point. Under
tremendous schedule and budget pressures and over multiple launches,
the NASA team accepted a lower standard of performance on the solid
rocket booster O-rings until that lower standard became the "norm". By
the dawn of Challenger, the NASA team had become so comfortable with
seeing occasional O-ring damage and getting away with it, the original
standard, in which ANY O-ring damage was defined as intolerable
deviance, was marginalized. Disaster resulted.
========
(From http://www.mikemullane.com/speakingprograms.htm)


~ CT
maxson@mission51l.com
Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 11:08 am
Guest
On Feb 21, 1:45 pm, tdadamemd-spamblo...@excite.com wrote:

Quote:
You would need to define the aberrant condition before a
term like "nominal O-ring erosion" could have meaning.  
I am not aware of that ever having been done.

From the *closed* hearing held by the Presidential Commission in
Washington, DC, on February 7, 1986:

DR. RIDE: What amount of erosion would have given you a problem to
call it a safety in flight issue?

MR. WINTERHALTER: Well, we had test results on this and, even with the
erosion on the secondary ring, which was the only instance we saw, we
had a safety factor sizewise of over two to one in our tests.

... ... ...

MR. WEEKS: Changes were made and tests were done to identify how much
erosion was liveable, how much deflection really occurs as a result of
this CIL back three years ago.

Now, this critical items list, as you can see there at the bottom,
here we were, after we had had eight static test firings, we had five
flights. We had 180, 54 field and 126 factory joints that were tested
with no evidence of leakage.

We also had the Titan III program, which is a single seal instead of a
dual seal, and they had about a thousand joints that, to the best of
our knowledge, had not had a problem.

... ... ...

DR. RIDE: Did you go back and revisit the CIL?

MR. WEEKS: Well, I think that you will see each step that we went
through as we found each of the flights, Sally, that got different
amounts of erosion. We were in effect re-reviewing this document as to
whether it was liveable or not.

MR. MOORE: Let me add, Larry Mulloy, you might comment on that,
because each program element in the shuttle is required to go back
after an anomaly and carry it out through the entire project.

MR. MULLOY: None of the data really changed.
It changed the basis for the acceptance of it as a criticality one
item, but all of the data that we received in terms of the joint
rotation and the reason we were getting the erosion-so yes, we did
look at that, and we felt the margins we were seeing-and I will
explain some of this- during the time that it takes to fill the gap
between the primary and the O-ring, that it is an acceptable
situation. And I have no data today to change that.

CHAIRMAN ROGERS: Not even today?

MR. MULLOY: No, sir.

Quote:
You probably know me well enough to know that I am not a Lockheed
apologist (nor NASA, nor any other aerospace entity).

Not really. I don't know you at all, actually. I know that for years
you refused to state in this forum that you were a Lockheed employee,
all the while arguing the Lockheed/NASA O-ring position,

Quote:
I call it like I see it, with a goal of seeking a perspective that is purged of
biases.

That's an admirable goal, but one which in my opinion you have failed
to demonstrate here. Allow me to quote a bit from your post of
12/10/2002:

"From John Maxson:

Quote:
What is the *single* most important piece of data supporting
your conclusion as to the Challenger cause?

The evidence that convinced me was watching close-up video
of the SRB, both the black smoke at the pad and then the
blowtorch in flight.

Thanks. I don't consider asking questions (as to how you drew
your conclusions) to be debate. Correct me if I'm wrong. (Try
to consider me a Bob Schieffer asking these questions.)

No, asking questions is not debate (I was just saying that I wanted
to
avoid repeating discussions we've had in the past if there has been
no
change in either of our views).

Quote:
Since the precise source (from which the black smoke at lift-off
originated) could not be determined because of loss of cameras,
how convinced would you rate yourself -- from that data alone?

(Let's say on a scale of 1 to 10. I'm taking your first observation
to be your answer, although I don't know of any close-up video
of the event you're describing. Perhaps you'll fill me in.)

[I asked only for a "single" conclusive piece of data, so I can't
consider two pieces in combination. Since I don't consider
clarifying comment to be debate, I should probably remind you
that contractors who received *film* frames (not video) of the
anamalous flare/plume were unable to determine (much less to
agree upon) the flare/flare's precise location.]

For the _single_ most significant piece of evidence, I would say that
was the "blowtorch" just prior to disintegration. With no other
evidence beside this, I would hypothetically place my confidence
somewhere above 50 percent that it was the SRB o-ring that failed.

But taken with all the other evidence (o-ring history, launch
temperature, black smoke at ignition, etc) I place my confidence well
above 90 percent. I hesitate to use '10' on the scale you've asked
for, because it doesn't convey room for error. So I will say '9'.

I am certain that it was o-ring blow-by. I consider that to be
established fact."

---end of quoted material---

I know a lot of people who "consider an O-ring failure to be
established fact." All I ask you is this: In a court of law, how does
anyone arrive at established fact without a fair trial? Why should
scientific judgments not be based on a fair trial as well? In other
words, Why not requre all members (like jurors) to withhold their
judgments until *both* sides have been afforded the *same* opportunity
to publicize thier facts. (Conclusions of Presidential Commissions,
especially when enhanced by a biased media, are by definition biased.)

The closest this nation ever came to questioning the O-ring theory was
in the House hearings. At the end, Chairman Roe ranted about how he'd
had all the contractor management up to testify, but "not one grunt."
When I asked him in person for permission to say a word (after one of
his hearings had recessed), he told me: "Maybe later." Well, you must
admit it's been awhile.

JTM (2/21/2008)
maxson@mission51l.com
Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 11:32 am
Guest
On Feb 21, 1:56 pm, tdadamemd-spamblo...@excite.com wrote:
Quote:
tdadamemd-spamblo...@excite.com wrote:
From JTM (max...@mission51l.com):

Using proper grammatical analysis then, NASA obviously treated O-ring
erosion prior to 51-L as "nominal," and rightly so in my opinion. You
may (and probably do) disagree with me about that. I'll let you tell
refresh my memory, rather than searching the archives.

I don't remember ever having commented here before on whether or not
the o-ring problem was seen as nominal.  I can see your point.  If
this condition had been defined as what to expect for a typical
launch, then yes, it would become the nominal.  But it is not merely
the expectation of a result that makes it nominal.  You would need to
define the aberrant condition before a term like "nominal O-ring
erosion" could have meaning.  I am not aware of that ever having been
done.

Mike Mullane, however, is an astronaut who is quite outspoken in
publicly cautioning against the Normalization of Deviance.  He
preaches 51L as his prime cautionary example.  His view seems to fit
with what you are saying.  I expect that he would agree with the view
that O-ring erosion was treated as a nominal condition.  If not
formally defined, then in some psychological sense.

I just found a quote from his website:

=======> Guarding against a "Normalization of Deviance"

Normalization of deviance is a long term phenomenon in which
individuals or teams repeatedly accept a lower standard of performance
until that lower standard becomes the "norm". Usually, the acceptance
of the lower standard occurs because the individual/team is under
pressure (budget, schedule, etc.) and perceives it will be too
difficult to adhere to the expected standard. Their intention may be
to revert back to the higher standard when this period of pressure
passes. However, by "getting away" with the deviation, it is likely
they will do the same thing when the same stressful circumstances
arise again. Over time, the individual/team fails to see their actions
as deviant.

Mullane uses the Challenger tragedy to make this point. Under
tremendous schedule and budget pressures and over multiple launches,
the NASA team accepted a lower standard of performance on the solid
rocket booster O-rings until that lower standard became the "norm". By
the dawn of Challenger, the NASA team had become so comfortable with
seeing occasional O-ring damage and getting away with it, the original
standard, in which ANY O-ring damage was defined as intolerable
deviance, was marginalized. Disaster resulted.
=======> (Fromhttp://www.mikemullane.com/speakingprograms.htm)

~ CT- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

How typical of you -- another appeal to authority (fallacious logic).

Astronauts are not always expert witnesses -- especially for all
things launch.

JTM
 
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