On Mon, 25 Apr 2005 06:49:33 GMT, "ring_theory"
ring_theory@yahoo.com> wrote:
"Mark Martin" <qed100@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1114407744.825638.108290@z14g2000cwz.googlegroups.com...
ring_theory wrote:
knowing mans luck our gravity will pull it in. The whole point is
that
the possibilities are near infinite.
Saying that the possibilities are "near" infinite is equivalent to
saying that any one of those possibilities has a "near" infinitesimal
likelyhood, in which case a randomly determined re-direction to an
Earth-intersecting path is as unlikely as any other.
But fortunately there is plenty more than just plain zero understood
about orbital dynamics. That's why spacecraft can be precisely
navigated to rendesvous with planets, asteroids, comets, etc. in the
first place. More than zero can be confidently figured out ahead of
time as to the consequences of the probe's impact upon the comet
nucleus.
The velocity, energy & momentum of the copper impactor will be known
ahead of time. The velocity of the comet also will be known before
hand. Its mass, and therefore its energy & momentum, can be estimated
to within a useful approximation ahead of time due to data aquired in
previous comet explorations. Thus, a rational estimate is possible
before hand of the dynamical implications of the probe to the comet's
overall behavior. Your problem is that you know nothing, and so believe
in everything. Those who are more learned don't have to believe in
everything. They can afford to wittle down the possibilities to a
narrow few, and make progress from there.
And it's not possible for this mission to be a hastily thought out
spur of the moment thing, as you describe it. Interplanetary
expeditions are neither simple nor cheap. They require planning,
planning, and then some more planning. This takes time- YEARS. It takes
money, which in this case is taxpayer provided. This means that a
funding proposal had to go through due process. It went through layers
of review & scrutiny. The scientists had to painstakingly lay out the
mission objective in sufficient detail so as to be meaningful to the
review commitees. No one just handed them several hundred million
dollars and said, "Oh hell, just do whatever tickles yer fancy with
this bag of money." There was no "doh! here comes a comet let's blow
it up." You are imagining the ways of the world in a very juvenile
fashion.
-Mark Martin
I know how the funding is aquired. Lies in the form of projections.
"near" infinitesimal likelyhood" maybe but still all implications need to
be
concidered. Deep impact is going to alter temple1's natural orbit there
is
no doubt about that. it's the implication of the altering that concernes
me
and all of mankind.
Do you have even a clue as to what the change may be? ANY CLUE AT ALL?