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| Rand Simberg |
Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2005 11:29 am |
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On 4 Feb 2005 07:23:03 -0800, in a place far, far away, "Alex Terrell"
<alexterrell@yahoo.com> made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
way as to indicate that:
Quote: NASA's rocket procurement spec should fit on 1 page.
Dear prospective supplier
We would like to buy rocket launches.
1. It must carry X tons, Y1 metres in diamter and Y2m high to an orbit
at Z
2. It must be Man Rated (by a team not involved in the procurement
process)
What does "Man Rated" mean? |
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| Fred J. McCall |
Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2005 7:50 pm |
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simberg.interglobal@org.trash (Rand Simberg) wrote:
:On 4 Feb 2005 07:23:03 -0800, in a place far, far away, "Alex Terrell"
:<alexterrell@yahoo.com> made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
:way as to indicate that:
:
:>NASA's rocket procurement spec should fit on 1 page.
:>
:>Dear prospective supplier
:>
:>We would like to buy rocket launches.
:>
:>1. It must carry X tons, Y1 metres in diamter and Y2m high to an orbit
:>at Z
:>2. It must be Man Rated (by a team not involved in the procurement
:>process)
:
:What does "Man Rated" mean?
If you look at the actual statistics, not much.
What it's SUPPOSED to mean is that the vehicle is certified to be much
more reliable (and frequently versatile) than 'non-man-rated' systems.
Under the usual rules, the Shuttle could never be Man Rated, since
solid fuel vehicles are inherently unsafe (no way to vary thrust or
turn them off short of blowing the sides or top out). In a classic
'Man Rated' vehicle, the SRBs would have had to be LRBs.
--
"Insisting on perfect safety is for people who don't have the balls to
live in the real world." -- Mary Shafer, NASA Dryden |
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| Fred J. McCall |
Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2005 7:53 pm |
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simberg.interglobal@org.trash (Rand Simberg) wrote:
:On 4 Feb 2005 07:15:57 -0800, in a place far, far away, "Alex Terrell"
:<alexterrell@yahoo.com> made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
:way as to indicate that:
:
:>For Delta to go to 40 tons is a major project, but the uncertainties
:>are limited. so I'd say it's not "Rocket Science"*, even if it's a
:>little bit of Rocket Science.
:>
:>*I am assuming the phrase "it's not rocket science" has a meaning in
:>the American version of English. Is this correct?
:
:Yes, though these days, even rocket science isn't rocket science.
:It's mostly rocket engineering.
This really cute little blonde that used to work where I do had one of
those sweat shirts that her team had bought for her - "Well, actually,
I *AM* a Rocket Scientist".
And so she was. She was on the GNC (Guidance/Navigation/Control)
team.
--
"Yet here I sit, years of evildoing under my belt, and still a
happy camper."
-- Alan Shore, "Boston Legal" |
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| George William Herbert |
Posted: Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:30 am |
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Fred J. McCall <fmccall@earthlink.net> wrote:
Quote: simberg.interglobal@org.trash (Rand Simberg) wrote:
:>NASA's rocket procurement spec should fit on 1 page.
: [...]
:What does "Man Rated" mean?
If you look at the actual statistics, not much.
What it's SUPPOSED to mean is that the vehicle is certified to be much
more reliable (and frequently versatile) than 'non-man-rated' systems.
Under the usual rules, the Shuttle could never be Man Rated, since
solid fuel vehicles are inherently unsafe (no way to vary thrust or
turn them off short of blowing the sides or top out). In a classic
'Man Rated' vehicle, the SRBs would have had to be LRBs.
Not necessarily. SRBs don't have to be terminatable
for there to be viable warning and escape systems for
the crew riding on top.
Large, fragile reusable orbiters and high energy aborts
don't match well, but that's different than banning SRBs
entirely.
A reasonable interpretation of "man rated" is that the
vehicle will provide gentle enough failure modes, and enough
problem diagnostics and warning and time to operate an
escape, that human passengers will survive credible bad
abort or launch failure cases. Said cases should include
at least basic structural failures in the launcher,
engine failures ranging from one to all engines,
and complete loss of control hard-over steering events.
-george william herbert
gherbert@retro.com |
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| Alex Terrell |
Posted: Sat Feb 05, 2005 7:27 am |
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Lots of definitions, but I'd expect an independent (of NASA) agaency to
say yes, the chances of crew dying in a rocket launch is less than 1 in
X (and I guess X should be about 1000). Most EELVs with an escape tower
should manage this.
What do you think Rand? |
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| Rand Simberg |
Posted: Sat Feb 05, 2005 8:29 am |
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On 5 Feb 2005 04:27:49 -0800, in a place far, far away, "Alex Terrell"
<alexterrell@yahoo.com> made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
way as to indicate that:
Quote: Lots of definitions, but I'd expect an independent (of NASA) agaency to
say yes, the chances of crew dying in a rocket launch is less than 1 in
X (and I guess X should be about 1000). Most EELVs with an escape tower
should manage this.
What do you think Rand?
I think that the whole notion of "man rating" is absurd, and
applicable (if at all) only to expendable launchers. If NASA were
smart, they'd just put out an RFP about as simple as the one you
proposed, except they'd put it out for thousands of tickets to orbit
per year at a low cost, with a stated specification for loss of life
(e.g., one in a thousand). |
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| Fred J. McCall |
Posted: Sat Feb 05, 2005 11:23 pm |
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gherbert@retro.com (George William Herbert) wrote:
:Fred J. McCall <fmccall@earthlink.net> wrote:
:>simberg.interglobal@org.trash (Rand Simberg) wrote:
:>:>NASA's rocket procurement spec should fit on 1 page.
:>: [...]
:>
:>:What does "Man Rated" mean?
:>
:>If you look at the actual statistics, not much.
:>
:>What it's SUPPOSED to mean is that the vehicle is certified to be much
:>more reliable (and frequently versatile) than 'non-man-rated' systems.
:>
:>Under the usual rules, the Shuttle could never be Man Rated, since
:>solid fuel vehicles are inherently unsafe (no way to vary thrust or
:>turn them off short of blowing the sides or top out). In a classic
:>'Man Rated' vehicle, the SRBs would have had to be LRBs.
:
:Not necessarily. SRBs don't have to be terminatable
:for there to be viable warning and escape systems for
:the crew riding on top.
Name a single man-rated solid fuel vehicle anywhere during the history
of space, other than the STS with SRBs.
:A reasonable interpretation of "man rated" is that the
:vehicle will provide gentle enough failure modes, and enough
:problem diagnostics and warning and time to operate an
:escape, that human passengers will survive credible bad
:abort or launch failure cases. Said cases should include
:at least basic structural failures in the launcher,
:engine failures ranging from one to all engines,
:and complete loss of control hard-over steering events.
So by your definition STS is not a 'man-rated' system?
I think that's what I said originally.
--
"Insisting on perfect safety is for people who don't have the balls to
live in the real world." -- Mary Shafer, NASA Dryden |
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| Henry Spencer |
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2005 2:12 pm |
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In article <6p6b019hhp1qtip0qo9vo7c3svn2vmcldn@4ax.com>,
Fred J. McCall <fmccall@earthlink.net> wrote:
Quote: :Not necessarily. SRBs don't have to be terminatable
:for there to be viable warning and escape systems for
:the crew riding on top.
Name a single man-rated solid fuel vehicle anywhere during the history
of space, other than the STS with SRBs.
The original Titan IIIC, which was built to carry Dyna-Soar. Mind you, it
*did* have thrust termination for its SRBs, to give Dyna-Soar a clear
chance to escape.
--
"Think outside the box -- the box isn't our friend." | Henry Spencer
-- George Herbert | henry@spsystems.net |
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| Ed Kyle |
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2005 11:18 am |
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Henry Spencer wrote:
Quote: In article <6p6b019hhp1qtip0qo9vo7c3svn2vmcldn@4ax.com>,
Fred J. McCall <fmccall@earthlink.net> wrote:
:Not necessarily. SRBs don't have to be terminatable
:for there to be viable warning and escape systems for
:the crew riding on top.
Name a single man-rated solid fuel vehicle anywhere during the
history
of space, other than the STS with SRBs.
The original Titan IIIC, which was built to carry Dyna-Soar.
Ariane 5, designed to launch the Hermes spaceplane.
- Ed Kyle |
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| Jon S. Berndt |
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2005 11:40 pm |
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"George William Herbert" <gherbert@retro.com>
Quote: Fred J. McCall <fmccall@earthlink.net> wrote:
Under the usual rules, the Shuttle could never be Man Rated, since
solid fuel vehicles are inherently unsafe (no way to vary thrust or
turn them off short of blowing the sides or top out). In a classic
'Man Rated' vehicle, the SRBs would have had to be LRBs.
Not necessarily. SRBs don't have to be terminatable
for there to be viable warning and escape systems for
the crew riding on top.
Large, fragile reusable orbiters and high energy aborts
don't match well, but that's different than banning SRBs
entirely.
Yes, IMHO, the shuttle SRBs could be called "man-rated" if anything can be
called that - with 225 out of 226 successful cycles - and the one that
wasn't was arguably abort-able in an inline configuration.
As an aside, I rendered an image of a hypothetical SRB/CEV launch on page 9
here: http://www.aiaa-houston.org/newsletter/jan05/jan05.pdf
Jon |
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| Sander Vesik |
Posted: Tue Feb 08, 2005 12:42 pm |
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George William Herbert <gherbert@retro.com> wrote:
Quote:
A reasonable interpretation of "man rated" is that the
vehicle will provide gentle enough failure modes, and enough
problem diagnostics and warning and time to operate an
escape, that human passengers will survive credible bad
abort or launch failure cases. Said cases should include
at least basic structural failures in the launcher,
engine failures ranging from one to all engines,
and complete loss of control hard-over steering events.
Isn't having a takeoff such that a human can survive it (so
not excessive vibrations, g forces etc) the first thing that
must be matched and isn't by many of todays launchers?
--
Sander
+++ Out of cheese error +++ |
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| Henry Spencer |
Posted: Tue Feb 08, 2005 10:44 pm |
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In article <1107902527.867971@haldjas.folklore.ee>,
Sander Vesik <sander@haldjas.folklore.ee> wrote:
Quote: Isn't having a takeoff such that a human can survive it (so
not excessive vibrations, g forces etc) the first thing that
must be matched and isn't by many of todays launchers?
When it comes to vibration and G forces, it would actually be hard to beat
the ex-ICBMs used for Mercury and Gemini... I don't think there's
anything in a typical modern big launcher's characteristics that would
disqualify it from carrying human cargo. Admittedly, there is some
*preference* for a slightly gentler ride than what the Mercury and Gemini
guys put up with, but it's not absolutely necessary.
--
"Think outside the box -- the box isn't our friend." | Henry Spencer
-- George Herbert | henry@spsystems.net |
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| Jeff Findley |
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 11:19 am |
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"Greg D. Moore (Strider)" <mooregr_deleteth1s@greenms.com> wrote in message
news:6WhOd.36168$ZD1.15357@twister.nyroc.rr.com...
Quote: I think the early riders of launch craft aren't going to be stopped to
easily by a somewhat rough ride.
I don't think that this is limited to "early riders". People who really
want to go into space (e.g. NASA astronauts) will put up with quite a bit of
discomfort and inconvienence to get a ride into space. Why else would
people endure years of training and waiting for the chance of a shuttle
flight? Given the glut of astronauts NASA currently has, it's likely that
many of the newest astronauts may not even get to fly on the shuttle before
the program is shut down, yet they stick with the program and cling to the
hope that they'll eventually get a flight on something.
Jeff
--
Remove icky phrase from email address to get a valid address. |
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| Fred J. McCall |
Posted: Sat Feb 19, 2005 12:29 pm |
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henry@spsystems.net (Henry Spencer) wrote:
:In article <6p6b019hhp1qtip0qo9vo7c3svn2vmcldn@4ax.com>,
:Fred J. McCall <fmccall@earthlink.net> wrote:
:>:Not necessarily. SRBs don't have to be terminatable
:>:for there to be viable warning and escape systems for
:>:the crew riding on top.
:>
:>Name a single man-rated solid fuel vehicle anywhere during the history
:>of space, other than the STS with SRBs.
:
:The original Titan IIIC, which was built to carry Dyna-Soar. Mind you, it
:*did* have thrust termination for its SRBs, to give Dyna-Soar a clear
:chance to escape.
Paper rating. Note that the DynaSoar was originally supposed to fly
on Titan I, then on Titan II, and it was only a steady increase in
weight that drove them to Titan III.
The intent may have been to 'man rate' it, but how many launched on
it? Can we say it wouldn't have changed again before X-20 went
operational?
--
"Millions for defense, but not one cent for tribute."
-- Charles Pinckney |
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| Fred J. McCall |
Posted: Sat Feb 19, 2005 12:32 pm |
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"Ed Kyle" <edkyle99@hotmail.com> wrote:
:Henry Spencer wrote:
:> In article <6p6b019hhp1qtip0qo9vo7c3svn2vmcldn@4ax.com>,
:> Fred J. McCall <fmccall@earthlink.net> wrote:
:> >:Not necessarily. SRBs don't have to be terminatable
:> >:for there to be viable warning and escape systems for
:> >:the crew riding on top.
:> >
:> >Name a single man-rated solid fuel vehicle anywhere during the
:history
:> >of space, other than the STS with SRBs.
:>
:> The original Titan IIIC, which was built to carry Dyna-Soar.
:
:Ariane 5, designed to launch the Hermes spaceplane.
Let's wait until they stop blowing up, shall we?
Hermes spaceplane? Another paper vehicle.
--
"Millions for defense, but not one cent for tribute."
-- Charles Pinckney |
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