| |
 |
|
|
Science Forum Index » Environment Forum » American Geophysical Union On Global Warming
Page 1 of 1
|
| Author |
Message |
| Roger Coppock |
 Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2003 5:22 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
The following is a statement from the American Geophysical
Union, a mainstream scientific group. The AGU has made
statements on global warming in the past, this one is the
most strident warning I've seen from any established
scientific organization.
There is very little doubt or 'wiggle room' here. Note
the warnings about both fast onsets and long term effects.
---
Human Impacts on Climate
Adopted by the AGU Council December, 2003
Human activities are increasingly altering the Earth's climate.
These effects add to natural influences that have been present
over Earth's history. Scientific evidence strongly indicates
that natural influences cannot explain the rapid increase in
global near-surface temperatures observed during the second half
of the 20th century.
Human impacts on the climate system include increasing
concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon
dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons and their substitutes, methane,
nitrous oxide, etc.), air pollution, increasing concentrations
of airborne particles, and land alteration. A particular concern
is that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide may be rising faster
than at any time in Earth's history, except possibly following
rare events like impacts from large extraterrestrial objects.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have increased since
the mid-1700s through fossil fuel burning and changes in land use,
with more than 80% of this increase occurring since 1900. Moreover,
research indicates that increased levels of carbon dioxide will
remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. It is
virtually certain that increasing atmospheric concentrations of
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will cause global surface
climate to be warmer.
The complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict
some aspects of human-induced climate change: exactly how fast it
will occur, exactly how much it will change, and exactly where those
changes will take place. In contrast, scientists are confident in
other predictions. Mid-continent warming will be greater than over
the oceans, and there will be greater warming at higher latitudes.
Some polar and glacial ice will melt, and the oceans will warm; both
effects will contribute to higher sea levels. The hydrologic cycle
will change and intensify, leading to changes in water supply as well
as flood and drought patterns. There will be considerable regional
variations in the resulting impacts.
Scientists' understanding of the fundamental processes responsible
for global climate change has greatly improved during the last decade,
including better representation of carbon, water, and other
biogeochemical cycles in climate models. Yet, model projections of
future global warming vary, because of differing estimates of
population growth, economic activity, greenhouse gas emission rates,
changes in atmospheric particulate concentrations and their effects,
and also because of uncertainties in climate models. Actions that
decrease emissions of some air pollutants will reduce their climate
effects in the short term. Even so, the impacts of increasing
greenhouse gas concentrations would remain.
The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change states
as an objective the "...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system." AGU believes that no single
threshold level of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere exists
at which the beginning of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system can be defined. Some impacts have already occurred, and
for increasing concentrations there will be increasing impacts. The
unprecedented increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, together with
other human influences on climate over the past century and those
anticipated for the future, constitute a real basis for concern.
Enhanced national and international research and other efforts are needed
to support climate related policy decisions. These include fundamental
climate research, improved observations and modeling, increased
computational capability, and very importantly, education of the next
generation of climate scientists. AGU encourages scientists worldwide to
participate in climate research, education, scientific assessments, and
policy discussions. AGU also urges that the scientific basis for policy
discussions and decision-making be based upon objective assessment of
peer-reviewed research results.
Science provides society with information useful in dealing with natural
hazards such as earthquakes, hurricanes, and drought, which improves our
ability to predict and prepare for their adverse effects. While
human-induced climate change is unique in its global scale and long lifetime,
AGU believes that science should play the same role in dealing with climate
change. AGU is committed to improving the communication of scientific
information to governments and private organizations so that their decisions
on climate issues will be based on the best science.
The global climate is changing and human activities are contributing to
that change. Scientific research is required to improve our ability to
predict climate change and its impacts on countries and regions around the
globe. Scientific research provides a basis for mitigating the harmful
effects of global climate change through decreased human influences (e.g.,
slowing greenhouse gas emissions, improving land management practices),
technological advancement (e.g., removing carbon from the atmosphere),
and finding ways for communities to adapt and become resilient to extreme
events.
--
"One who joyfully guards his mind
And fears his own confusion
Can not fall.
He has found his way to peace."
-- Buddha, in the "Pali Dhammapada,"
~5th century BCE
-.-. --.- Roger Coppock (rcoppock@adnc.com)
-----= Posted via Newsfeeds.Com, Uncensored Usenet News =-----
http://www.newsfeeds.com - The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World!
-----== Over 100,000 Newsgroups - 19 Different Servers! =----- |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
| |
|
Page 1 of 1
All times are GMT - 5 Hours
The time now is Fri Oct 10, 2008 11:30 pm
|
|