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Science Forum Index » Geology Forum » Earthquake probability program now available Dec. 10, 2003
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| edgrsprj |
 Posted: Wed Dec 10, 2003 9:33 am |
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AN EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY PROGRAM IS NOW AVAILABLE
Posted to sci.geo.earthquakes and other Newsgroups on December 10, 2003
Newsgroup Readers - Please circulate copies of this report to earthquake
researchers and forecasters including people working for universities and
government agencies.
An earthquake probability program can now be downloaded from the following
address:
http://www.earthwaves.org/roger/prob_setup.exe
The program runs under the Windows operating system. A DOS version might be
made available is there is enough interest.
The program can be used for different applications including the following
one:
Let us say that you generate an earthquake forecast for a particular
location and magnitude (5 or greater) with a time window having a 10 day
duration. And you want to determine how likely it would be for such an
earthquake to occur by chance. You would enter your data into the program
and it would generate a number which would indicate the probability that
such an earthquake could occur in that area during any 10 day period of
time.
If it stated that there was a 90% chance that an earthquake would occur
there then your forecast would not be too unusual. However if it stated
that there was only a 0.9% chance and you were certain regarding the
accuracy of your forecast then it could probably be regarded as being a
fairly significant one.
That type of information can be helpful for judging how well an earthquake
forecasting program is working. If accurate forecasts are being repeatedly
made which the program indicated should actually have had a low probability
of being successful by chance then it would suggest that the forecasting
program could be producing good results.
It works by comparing your input data with a database which contains NEIC
records of past earthquakes occurring around the world with magnitudes of 5
or greater. More detailed information regarding how the program works can
be found in its "Help" file.
If the program is sufficiently popular a more advanced version might be
created which would make it possible to evaluate large numbers of forecasts
at the same time. Some existing earthquake forecasting programs are
generating quite a few forecasts every day. And the present version of the
probability program performs a single evaluation at a time.
It is believed that the program will generate accurate data and run smoothly
with the Windows operating system. However, program users need to be aware
that it is up to them to ensure that it is working properly for their
application. |
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| Skywise |
| Posted: Wed Dec 10, 2003 5:37 pm |
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"edgrsprj" <edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com> wrote in
news:y8GBb.8984$Ho3.5135@newsread1.news.atl.earthlink.net:
<Snipola>
Quote: Newsgroup Readers - Please circulate copies of this report to
earthquake researchers and forecasters including people working for
universities and government agencies.
Snipola
You know, I get a lot of junk mail with very similar 'instructions'.
Please send this to ten people for good luck.
Don't break the chain or it will cause bad luck.
This is absolutely 100% true and it works!!!
etc...
etc...
etc...
If it looks like spam, talks like spam, smells like spam...
it'll get treated like spam. I prefer mine diced and cubed
before frying to a crisp in a skillet.
Brian
p.s. in case the point is missed, don't use spammer techniques
if you want your message taken seriously. |
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| edgrsprj |
| Posted: Thu Dec 11, 2003 8:01 am |
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December 11, 2003
The program I discussed does not really represent a major advance in
earthquake science. It simply provides earthquake researchers with a
convenient way of generating a certain type of data which many would
probably find useful. It was created as part of a hobby type effort. And
it would hardly be worth the investment to hire a marketing consultant in
order to obtain some advice regarding the best way to announce the fact that
it is now available. That note was the best that I could do with limited
resources of time and energy.
The effort is actually working. I just received a note from someone working
for one government who thanked me for the information about the program and
stated that scientists working for that government were being told about the
program.
"Skywise" <into@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote in message
news:Xns944D94BF47A92intooblivionnothignc@207.217.77.203...
Quote: "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com> wrote in
news:y8GBb.8984$Ho3.5135@newsread1.news.atl.earthlink.net:
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| Bob Officer |
| Posted: Sat Dec 13, 2003 4:03 pm |
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On Wed, 10 Dec 2003 22:37:54 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, Skywise
<into@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Quote: "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com> wrote in
news:y8GBb.8984$Ho3.5135@newsread1.news.atl.earthlink.net:
Snipola
Newsgroup Readers - Please circulate copies of this report to
earthquake researchers and forecasters including people working for
universities and government agencies.
Snipola
You know, I get a lot of junk mail with very similar 'instructions'.
Please send this to ten people for good luck.
Don't break the chain or it will cause bad luck.
This is absolutely 100% true and it works!!!
etc...
etc...
etc...
If it looks like spam, talks like spam, smells like spam...
it'll get treated like spam. I prefer mine diced and cubed
before frying to a crisp in a skillet.
Brian
p.s. in case the point is missed, don't use spammer techniques
if you want your message taken seriously.
you needed to comment also only a idiot puts a link to an executable in a
URL.
Most auto-parsers view this as an attempt to spread Virii.
Actually I am surprise if his ISP/NSP doesn't spank him over this.
EDG is a spammer his posting appear across a large number of newsgroups
begging for money and help.
--
Aktohdi |
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| Bob Officer |
| Posted: Sat Dec 13, 2003 4:18 pm |
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On Thu, 11 Dec 2003 13:01:34 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, "edgrsprj"
<edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
Quote: December 11, 2003
The program I discussed does not really represent a major advance in
earthquake science. It simply provides earthquake researchers with a
convenient way of generating a certain type of data which many would
probably find useful. It was created as part of a hobby type effort. And
it would hardly be worth the investment to hire a marketing consultant in
order to obtain some advice regarding the best way to announce the fact that
it is now available. That note was the best that I could do with limited
resources of time and energy.
Bullshit.
you have been cranking around the net for three or more years looking for
help for everything form how to gather data to programming in general.
Mostly begging for funds and other people to spam "people in power with
your scheme".
you need to correct some general concepts you don't grasp.
1. Data is not generated by computer programs.
2. Data comes from observations and measurements of events.
3. Computers can manipulate data in to a form which people can use better.
4. The problems arise when people playing with data sets. The largest thing
is they mine the data sets to show people their pet idea in the best light.
Quote: The effort is actually working. I just received a note from someone working
for one government who thanked me for the information about the program and
stated that scientists working for that government were being told about the
program.
Sure, and you have thousands of e-mail letters of support. EDG's effort to
date, has been trying to get 1. money for research 2. people to both the
government people with his spam 3. get someone else to do the work for
free.
Do not download EDG's program. He didn't write it, he doesn't know how it
works, he doesn't know what was coded into it.
Don't not send EDG's web page URL or articles to scientists or government
officials, they waste enough tax money already, without having unqualified
nuts bombarding them with just wrong science.
Quote: "Skywise" <into@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote in message
news:Xns944D94BF47A92intooblivionnothignc@207.217.77.203...
"edgrsprj" <edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com> wrote in
news:y8GBb.8984$Ho3.5135@newsread1.news.atl.earthlink.net:
--
Aktohdi |
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| Timberwoof |
| Posted: Sat Dec 13, 2003 4:32 pm |
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In article <8fvmtvo1t9h3mj5nugfvbbmkr4mhsbtuet@4ax.com>,
Bob Officer <bobofficers.I-hate-Swen@earthlink.net> wrote:
Quote: Most auto-parsers view this as an attempt to spread Virii.
What is virii the plural of -- virius?
--
Timberwoof <me at timberwoof dot com>
http://www.timberwoof.com |
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| edgrsprj |
| Posted: Sat Dec 13, 2003 4:57 pm |
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December 13, 2003
How you can come to conclusions like that is certainly a mystery to me. And
an even greater mystery is why you are taking such a point of view.
That program is intended to be helpful to earthquake researchers. There is
no charge for it. And I believe that anyone with current virus software
should be able to scan it and tell that it is safe. I would agree that
anyone who downloads an .exe program without having virus software is
probably taking a chance.
"Bob Officer" <bobofficers.I-hate-Swen@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:tmvmtv0g3dq9kitjm7dvqfgjbp1ohj8u1i@4ax.com...
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| Bob Officer |
| Posted: Sun Dec 14, 2003 12:50 am |
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On Sat, 13 Dec 2003 21:32:23 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, Timberwoof
<timberwoof@stimpberawoofm.com> wrote:
Quote: In article <8fvmtvo1t9h3mj5nugfvbbmkr4mhsbtuet@4ax.com>,
Bob Officer <bobofficers.I-hate-Swen@earthlink.net> wrote:
Most auto-parsers view this as an attempt to spread Virii.
What is virii the plural of -- virius?
Correct... It isn't proper but the current techie term of a program package
delivering multiple instructions which are not good for the user or the net
in general.
--
Aktohdi |
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| Bob Officer |
| Posted: Sun Dec 14, 2003 1:06 am |
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On Sat, 13 Dec 2003 21:57:37 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, "edgrsprj"
<edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
Quote: December 13, 2003
How you can come to conclusions like that is certainly a mystery to me. And
an even greater mystery is why you are taking such a point of view.
How can one not come to such a conclusion. you are so dishonest you cut my
comments out of your reply. a sure sign of your cowardice.
Quote:
That program is intended to be helpful to earthquake researchers. There is
1. did you write the program?
2. do you know all the coding in the program
You have been cranking around the net, looking and begging for help.
Specifically in several of the comp and astronomy groups.
Quote: no charge for it. And I believe that anyone with current virus software
should be able to scan it and tell that it is safe. I would agree that
but you don't know what the program actually does. because you didn't write
it and instead of posting it in a Zipped package with some info you place a
direct link to an executable.
A sure sign of you being 100% stupid.
Quote: anyone who downloads an .exe program without having virus software is
probably taking a chance.
and anyone that posts a link to an executable is equally stupid.
Quote: "Bob Officer" <bobofficers.I-hate-Swen@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:tmvmtv0g3dq9kitjm7dvqfgjbp1ohj8u1i@4ax.com...
On Thu, 11 Dec 2003 13:01:34 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, "edgrsprj"
edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
Coward snipped my posting and after this many years should know how to use
his news reader a bit better.
The crank Dot net <http://www.crank.net/geology.html> site has you rated
as:
*"CRANKY"*
--
Aktohdi |
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| edgrsprj |
| Posted: Mon Dec 15, 2003 1:50 pm |
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December 15, 2003
That program is intended largely for serious earthquake researchers. These
are experienced professionals who understand what they can and cannot safely
do with regard to downloading and using programs like that.
The goal of these notes was to get information circulated around the world
regarding the existence of that program. It would not be possible for me to
contact every university and government agency to tell people about it.
I suspect that your remarks might have accomplished exactly the opposite of
what it appears to me you were trying to do. If there were no responses made
to my original post then many people might have simply ignored it. But I
think that when people see that there is a thread with multiple entries like
this one then they will start reading the posts just to see what all the
excitement is about. And that would have told them about the existence of
the program.
In any case, information regarding it has now been circulated far and wide.
And from this point I feel that any further discussions might just be
arguing for the sake of arguing.
The heading information etc. that I am presently including in my response
notes is there or not there for the most part to make it easier for me to
keep track of the responses that I receive. Their content is not really
intended to influence the discussions.
"Bob Officer" <bobofficers.I-hate-Swen@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:pguntvo25od54kft6rqpd2ito36m2lovld@4ax.com...
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| Wally Anglesea™ |
| Posted: Mon Dec 15, 2003 2:46 pm |
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On Mon, 15 Dec 2003 18:50:21 GMT, "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com>
wrote:
Quote: December 15, 2003
That program is intended largely for serious earthquake researchers.
What was the Smithsonians' reaction to the program?
Quote: These
are experienced professionals who understand what they can and cannot safely
do with regard to downloading and using programs like that.
The goal of these notes was to get information circulated around the world
regarding the existence of that program. It would not be possible for me to
contact every university and government agency to tell people about it.
I suspect that your remarks might have accomplished exactly the opposite of
what it appears to me you were trying to do. If there were no responses made
to my original post then many people might have simply ignored it. But I
think that when people see that there is a thread with multiple entries like
this one then they will start reading the posts just to see what all the
excitement is about. And that would have told them about the existence of
the program.
In any case, information regarding it has now been circulated far and wide.
And from this point I feel that any further discussions might just be
arguing for the sake of arguing.
The heading information etc. that I am presently including in my response
notes is there or not there for the most part to make it easier for me to
keep track of the responses that I receive. Their content is not really
intended to influence the discussions.
"Bob Officer" <bobofficers.I-hate-Swen@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:pguntvo25od54kft6rqpd2ito36m2lovld@4ax.com...
On Sat, 13 Dec 2003 21:57:37 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, "edgrsprj"
edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
--
Maj. General, Fanatic Legions.
Commander of Southern Hemisphere Forces.
Find out about Australia's most dangerous Doomsday Cult:
http://users.bigpond.net.au/wanglese/pebble.htm |
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| Seismo Gal |
| Posted: Tue Dec 16, 2003 12:44 am |
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Bob Officer <bobofficers.I-hate-Swen@earthlink.net> wrote in message news:<0duntvcu9stfojgtmpiptdama14hacrpkv@4ax.com>...
Quote: On Sat, 13 Dec 2003 21:32:23 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, Timberwoof
timberwoof@stimpberawoofm.com> wrote:
In article <8fvmtvo1t9h3mj5nugfvbbmkr4mhsbtuet@4ax.com>,
Bob Officer <bobofficers.I-hate-Swen@earthlink.net> wrote:
Most auto-parsers view this as an attempt to spread Virii.
What is virii the plural of -- virius?
Correct... It isn't proper but the current techie term of a program package
delivering multiple instructions which are not good for the user or the net
in general.
Hi Bob,
I love your delivery! I have been banned on the Earthwaves newsgroup
from responding to our dear EDG/EQF/you name it now/ because I
politely ask him questions which he refuses to answer because he says
he doesn't have enough time. Oh geez.
You can call it a name or a phrase for that matter. Every few months
he changes his moniker. Does that make one wonder? Which personality
is in charge this week or month, or perhaps this day? And what are
his credentials? Up until recently he said he was not a scientist,
but now he says he is. Four years and a trail of I'm into this that
and ten other things. None of them are even remotely successful. Now
he says he's having a research conference. Location undisclosed. I
wonder what that's all about. Maybe it's a multiple personality
conference. He can play head mucky muck of many countries and have an
internal war with himself. LOL
The bottom line: It's all smoke and mirrors. No substance what so
ever and the man has never had an original thought of his own. He
collects, spins a web called an idea and we the viewing public are
supposed to believe it. I'm glad we are not all so easy to net.
Petra Challus, the one and only.
The Seismic Safety Zone: http://www.theseismicsafetyzone.com |
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| Bob Officer |
| Posted: Tue Dec 16, 2003 3:09 am |
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On Mon, 15 Dec 2003 18:50:21 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, "edgrsprj"
<edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
Quote: December 15, 2003
That program is intended largely for serious earthquake researchers. These
are experienced professionals who understand what they can and cannot safely
do with regard to downloading and using programs like that.
and how many of these "serious professional you think have downloaded your
program?
Here is a major hint: Most universities and government groups don't allow
people to download and run programs off the net on university's computers.
I suggest only a kook would act as you have. and then a Clueless Kook.
Quote:
The goal of these notes was to get information circulated around the world
regarding the existence of that program. It would not be possible for me to
contact every university and government agency to tell people about it.
The goal is to drum up support among the clueless. I bet you are
killfiltered by most "serious researchers" and you beg others to do you
dirty work.
Quote: I suspect that your remarks might have accomplished exactly the opposite of
what it appears to me you were trying to do. If there were no responses made
to my original post then many people might have simply ignored it. But I
think that when people see that there is a thread with multiple entries like
this one then they will start reading the posts just to see what all the
excitement is about. And that would have told them about the existence of
the program.
I suspect they are ignoring in droves. your Web site is rated cranky. your
actions are that of a Clueless Kook.
Quote: In any case, information regarding it has now been circulated far and wide.
And from this point I feel that any further discussions might just be
arguing for the sake of arguing.
and how many downloads have taken place?
Quote: The heading information etc. that I am presently including in my response
notes is there or not there for the most part to make it easier for me to
keep track of the responses that I receive. Their content is not really
intended to influence the discussions.
You are a net kook. What you do is useless twittering around various
newsgroups were no "serious researcher would give you the time of day.
Quote:
"Bob Officer" <bobofficers.I-hate-Swen@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:pguntvo25od54kft6rqpd2ito36m2lovld@4ax.com...
On Sat, 13 Dec 2003 21:57:37 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, "edgrsprj"
edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
More dishonesty?
--
Aktohdi |
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| Bob Officer |
| Posted: Tue Dec 16, 2003 3:16 am |
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On 15 Dec 2003 21:44:21 -0800, in sci.geo.earthquakes,
seismogal@hotmail.com (Seismo Gal) wrote:
Quote: Bob Officer <bobofficers.I-hate-Swen@earthlink.net> wrote in message news:<0duntvcu9stfojgtmpiptdama14hacrpkv@4ax.com>...
On Sat, 13 Dec 2003 21:32:23 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, Timberwoof
timberwoof@stimpberawoofm.com> wrote:
In article <8fvmtvo1t9h3mj5nugfvbbmkr4mhsbtuet@4ax.com>,
Bob Officer <bobofficers.I-hate-Swen@earthlink.net> wrote:
Most auto-parsers view this as an attempt to spread Virii.
What is virii the plural of -- virius?
Correct... It isn't proper but the current techie term of a program package
delivering multiple instructions which are not good for the user or the net
in general.
Hi Bob,
I love your delivery! I have been banned on the Earthwaves newsgroup
That's Yahoo group?
Write the abuse desk at yahoo.
Quote: from responding to our dear EDG/EQF/you name it now/ because I
politely ask him questions which he refuses to answer because he says
he doesn't have enough time. Oh geez.
It twits around the net, asking and begging for help. What I suspect he
really has been doing is beg for funding, free help and what ever other
"free help he can get. a simple google search finds him begging for
programming help in various comp.* groups and for Public Domain algorithms
to use in his "program".
Quote: You can call it a name or a phrase for that matter. Every few months
he changes his moniker. Does that make one wonder? Which personality
is in charge this week or month, or perhaps this day? And what are
his credentials? Up until recently he said he was not a scientist,
but now he says he is. Four years and a trail of I'm into this that
and ten other things. None of them are even remotely successful. Now
he says he's having a research conference. Location undisclosed. I
wonder what that's all about. Maybe it's a multiple personality
conference. He can play head mucky muck of many countries and have an
internal war with himself. LOL
I have been in this group and seen many "odd people" come and go, From G
Foster who was convinced EQs came from moon and sun conjunctions with
"power" sources identified by bright stars... to Edvins the alt.astrology
reject book seller/spammmer. I larted him twice for hit and run spamming.
Quote: The bottom line: It's all smoke and mirrors. No substance what so
ever and the man has never had an original thought of his own. He
collects, spins a web called an idea and we the viewing public are
supposed to believe it. I'm glad we are not all so easy to net.
he is trolling looking for rubes.
nothing much shaking around here. lately.
--
Aktohdi |
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| edgrsprj |
| Posted: Tue Dec 16, 2003 12:13 pm |
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December 16, 2003
The purpose of the first post in this thread was to let professional and
amateur earthquake researchers around the world know how they could get a
copy of a computer program which generates a certain type of data regarding
the likelihood that an earthquake could occur by chance in a specific
location during a specified time window.
A number of response posts followed the original one. And although they did
not appear to me to have anything to do with the program technology or the
type of information the program generates I thought that they might be
helpful as they would bring some attention to the discussion about it.
It now appears to me that there have been enough posts to achieve both of
those goals. So, if you are a Newsgroup reader who would like to see this
thread come to an end then I suggest that you post a note saying, "Let it
end!"
It should be interesting to see if that accomplishes anything.
"Bob Officer" <bobofficers.I-hate-Swen@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:lefttvg5tobbthkvu4sa6pv5b3vrpe2ggf@4ax.com...
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