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| Science Forum Index » Geology - Meteorology Forum » Earth is Not Cooling, according to Statisticians... |
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| crunch... |
 Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 5:38 am |
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Accuweather
http://global-warming.accuweather.com/2009/10/earth_is_not_cooling_according_1.html
"To find the cooling trend, the 30 years of satellite temperatures
must be used. The satellite data tends to be cooler than the ground
data. And key is making sure 1998 is part of the trend, said Don
Easterbrook, a Western Washington University geology professor and
global warming skeptic. According to Easterbrook, it's what happens
within the past 10 years or so, not the overall average, that counts.
Saying there's a downward trend since 1998 is not scientifically
legitimate, said David Peterson, a retired Duke University statistics
professor and one of those analyzing the numbers for the AP."
David Christainsen - Meteorologist |
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| tunderbar... |
| Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:48 am |
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On Oct 28, 10:38 am, crunch <pchristain... at (no spam) yahoo.com> wrote:
[quote]Accuweatherhttp://global-warming.accuweather.com/2009/10/earth_is_not_cooling_ac...
"To find the cooling trend, the 30 years of satellite temperatures
must be used. The satellite data tends to be cooler than the ground
[/quote]
Where is the 30 year warming trend? No one is saying that the world is
cooling. We are saying that the temps have not gone up in over ten
years, completely contrary to the al gores and the models and the
hansens and the ipccs and the manns, etc..
[quote]data. And key is making sure 1998 is part of the trend, said Don
Easterbrook, a Western Washington University geology professor and
global warming skeptic. According to Easterbrook, it's what happens
within the past 10 years or so, not the overall average, that counts.
Saying there's a downward trend since 1998 is not scientifically
legitimate, said David Peterson, a retired Duke University statistics
professor and one of those analyzing the numbers for the AP."
David Christainsen - Meteorologist[/quote] |
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| JohnM... |
| Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 10:26 am |
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On Oct 28, 2:09 pm, "Rob Dekker" <r... at (no spam) verific.com> wrote:
[quote]"tunderbar" <tdcom... at (no spam) gmail.com> wrote in messagenews:66130552-3dd1-4bd7-a034-be3e371f2206 at (no spam) j24g2000yqa.googlegroups.com...
On Oct 28, 10:38 am, crunch <pchristain... at (no spam) yahoo.com> wrote:
Accuweatherhttp://global-warming.accuweather.com/2009/10/earth_is_not_cooling_ac...
"To find the cooling trend, the 30 years of satellite temperatures
must be used. The satellite data tends to be cooler than the ground
Where is the 30 year warming trend? No one is saying that the world is
cooling. We are saying that the temps have not gone up in over ten
years, completely contrary to the al gores and the models and the
hansens and the ipccs and the manns, etc..
Did you read the article ?
[/quote]
Of course he didn't read the article. It might not fit in with his pre-
conceived ideas and that could cause his brain to hurt. |
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| Rob Dekker... |
| Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 2:09 pm |
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Guest
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"tunderbar" <tdcomeau at (no spam) gmail.com> wrote in message news:66130552-3dd1-4bd7-a034-be3e371f2206 at (no spam) j24g2000yqa.googlegroups.com...
On Oct 28, 10:38 am, crunch <pchristain... at (no spam) yahoo.com> wrote:
[quote]Accuweatherhttp://global-warming.accuweather.com/2009/10/earth_is_not_cooling_ac...
"To find the cooling trend, the 30 years of satellite temperatures
must be used. The satellite data tends to be cooler than the ground
Where is the 30 year warming trend? No one is saying that the world is
cooling. We are saying that the temps have not gone up in over ten
years, completely contrary to the al gores and the models and the
hansens and the ipccs and the manns, etc..
[/quote]
Did you read the article ?
Rob |
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| Ouroboros Rex... |
| Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 2:09 pm |
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Guest
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tunderbar wrote:
[quote]On Oct 28, 10:38 am, crunch <pchristain... at (no spam) yahoo.com> wrote:
Accuweatherhttp://global-warming.accuweather.com/2009/10/earth_is_not_cooling_ac...
"To find the cooling trend, the 30 years of satellite temperatures
must be used. The satellite data tends to be cooler than the ground
Where is the 30 year warming trend? No one is saying that the world is
cooling.
[/quote]
Lie
We are saying that the temps have not gone up in over ten
[quote]years,
[/quote]
Lie
completely contrary to the al gores and the models and the
[quote]hansens and the ipccs and the manns, etc..
[/quote]
As usual, the denialist just makes some shit up. |
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| b.o.n.z.o... |
| Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 5:58 pm |
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IS IT COLD OUTSIDE? ASK A STATISTICIAN
October 29 2009
This is cute.
All manner of claims have been made by warmenists
over the years, yet few have ever been subject to
serious media investigation.
But when sceptics note a temperature decline,
Associated Press calls in the statisticians:
"The Earth is still warming, not cooling as some
global warming skeptics are claiming, according to
an analysis of global temperatures by independent
statistics experts. "
"The review of years of temperature data was
conducted at the request of The Associated Press.
Talk of a cooling trend has been spreading on the
Internet, fueled by some news reports, a new book
and temperatures that have been cooler in a few
recent years. "
"The statisticians, reviewing two sets of
temperature data, found no trend of falling
temperatures over time. "
Except that, as noted, it was hotter in 1998 than
it is now - despite all the carbon.
A longer AP piece on this is here.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091026/ap_on_sc/us_sci_global_cooling
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/
Warmest Regards
Bon_0
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the
worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion
since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands
of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal
has yet been detected that is distinct from
natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James
Cook University, Townsville |
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| b.o.n.z.o... |
| Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 5:59 pm |
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IS IT COLD OUTSIDE? ASK A STATISTICIAN
October 29 2009
This is cute.
All manner of claims have been made by warmenists
over the years, yet few have ever been subject to
serious media investigation.
But when sceptics note a temperature decline,
Associated Press calls in the statisticians:
"The Earth is still warming, not cooling as some
global warming skeptics are claiming, according to
an analysis of global temperatures by independent
statistics experts. "
"The review of years of temperature data was
conducted at the request of The Associated Press.
Talk of a cooling trend has been spreading on the
Internet, fueled by some news reports, a new book
and temperatures that have been cooler in a few
recent years. "
"The statisticians, reviewing two sets of
temperature data, found no trend of falling
temperatures over time. "
Except that, as noted, it was hotter in 1998 than
it is now - despite all the carbon.
A longer AP piece on this is here.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091026/ap_on_sc/us_sci_global_cooling
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/
Warmest Regards
Bon_0
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the
worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion
since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands
of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal
has yet been detected that is distinct from
natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James
Cook University, Townsville |
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| alanmc95210 at (no spam) yahoo.com... |
| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2009 4:51 am |
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Guest
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On Oct 28, 1:26 pm, JohnM <john_howard_mor... at (no spam) hotmail.co.uk> wrote:
[quote]On Oct 28, 2:09 pm, "Rob Dekker" <r... at (no spam) verific.com> wrote:
"tunderbar" <tdcom... at (no spam) gmail.com> wrote in messagenews:66130552-3dd1-4bd7-a034-be3e371f2206 at (no spam) j24g2000yqa.googlegroups.com...
On Oct 28, 10:38 am, crunch <pchristain... at (no spam) yahoo.com> wrote:
Accuweatherhttp://global-warming.accuweather.com/2009/10/earth_is_not_cooling_ac...
"To find the cooling trend, the 30 years of satellite temperatures
must be used. The satellite data tends to be cooler than the ground
Where is the 30 year warming trend? No one is saying that the world is
cooling. We are saying that the temps have not gone up in over ten
years, completely contrary to the al gores and the models and the
hansens and the ipccs and the manns, etc..
Did you read the article ?
Of course he didn't read the article. It might not fit in with his pre-
conceived ideas and that could cause his brain to hurt.
[/quote]
All the article is saying is that
IF yearly temperatures are independent random variables,
THEN you cannot say with 95% confidence that the cooling trend over
the last 10 years is
statistically significant, and not due to chance.
In practice, yearly temperatures are NOT independent random
variables. There's a relationship between temperatures and the 22
year average sunspot cycle, there's a relationship between
temperature and the PDO , which fluctuates irregualrly, but
apparently has averaged about 60 years during the recent past.
We've warmed since the little ice age, but NOBODY can say with any
degree of certainty what the future will bring- A. McIntire |
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