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| Harry Hope... |
 Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 8:52 pm |
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Guest
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http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/280517
Arctic Ice Cap to Become an Open Sea in 10 years
By Leo Reyes.
Some sicentists and climate change explorers predict that the Artic
ice cover will be gone during warmer months in 10 years due to the
effects of global warming.
Veteran polar explorers who spent considerable time doing research in
the Arctic revealed that the Artctic ice cap will disappear in 20-30
years.
It will be largely ice-free during warmer months within a decade.
These observations were noted by a team of research and polar
explorers led by adventurer Pen Hadow and two other British explorers.
"The summer ice cover will completely vanish in 20 to 30 years but in
less than that it will have considerably retreated," said Professor
Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at Britain's
prestigious Cambridge University.
"In about 10 years, the Arctic ice will be considered as open sea.",
Wedhams added.
The Arctic ice cap is a very important mix in the climate system.
"Remove the Arctic ice cap and we are left with a very different and
much warmer world," said Dr. Martin Somerkorn, Senior Climate Change
Adviser to the Worldwide Fund for Nature.
He said that the ice meltdown is 'happening faster than we thought'.
Loss of sea ice cover will "set in motion powerful climate feedbacks
which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself," he added.
"This could lead to flooding affecting one quarter of the world's
population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emission from
massive carbon pools and extreme global weather changes."
In the Philippines, flooding and landslides from devastating effects
of typhoons, have been linked to the issue of global warming.
Environmental experts are saying that similar occurences will bring
much more distractions to life and property.
Last year, the UN weather agency WMO said 'Ice volume around the
Arctic region hit the lowest level ever recorded this year as climate
extremes brought death and devastation to many parts of the world.
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/world/12/17/08/arctic-ice-volume-lowest-ever-globe-warms-un
____________________________________________________
Harry |
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| Catoni... |
| Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 8:52 pm |
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Guest
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On Oct 14, 10:52 pm, Harry Hope <riv... at (no spam) ix.netcom.com> wrote:
[quote:1abb815d79]http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/280517
Arctic Ice Cap to Become an Open Sea in 10 years
By Leo Reyes.
Some sicentists and climate change explorers predict that the Artic
ice cover will be gone during warmer months in 10 years due to the
effects of global warming.
Veteran polar explorers who spent considerable time doing research in
the Arctic revealed that the Artctic ice cap will disappear in 20-30
years.
It will be largely ice-free during warmer months within a decade.
These observations were noted by a team of research and polar
explorers led by adventurer Pen Hadow and two other British explorers.
"The summer ice cover will completely vanish in 20 to 30 years but in
less than that it will have considerably retreated," said Professor
Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at Britain's
prestigious Cambridge University.
"In about 10 years, the Arctic ice will be considered as open sea.",
Wedhams added.
The Arctic ice cap is a very important mix in the climate system.
"Remove the Arctic ice cap and we are left with a very different and
much warmer world," said Dr. Martin Somerkorn, Senior Climate Change
Adviser to the Worldwide Fund for Nature.
He said that the ice meltdown is 'happening faster than we thought'.
Loss of sea ice cover will "set in motion powerful climate feedbacks
which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself," he added.
"This could lead to flooding affecting one quarter of the world's
population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emission from
massive carbon pools and extreme global weather changes."
In the Philippines, flooding and landslides from devastating effects
of typhoons, have been linked to the issue of global warming.
Environmental experts are saying that similar occurences will bring
much more distractions to life and property.
Last year, the UN weather agency WMO said 'Ice volume around the
Arctic region hit the lowest level ever recorded this year as climate
extremes brought death and devastation to many parts of the world.http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/world/12/17/08/arctic-ice-volume-lowest-ev...
____________________________________________________
Harry
[/quote:1abb815d79]
Are you a big fan of fiction fantasy books and films ??? |
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| Monkey Clumps... |
| Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 1:24 am |
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Guest
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On Oct 14, 10:52 pm, Harry Hope <riv... at (no spam) ix.netcom.com> wrote:
[quote:92e6e5bc36]http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/280517
Arctic Ice Cap to Become an Open Sea in 10 years
By Leo Reyes.
Some sicentists and climate change explorers predict that the Artic
ice cover will be gone during warmer months in 10 years due to the
effects of global warming.
Veteran polar explorers who spent considerable time doing research in
the Arctic revealed that the Artctic ice cap will disappear in 20-30
years.
It will be largely ice-free during warmer months within a decade.
These observations were noted by a team of research and polar
explorers led by adventurer Pen Hadow and two other British explorers.
"The summer ice cover will completely vanish in 20 to 30 years but in
less than that it will have considerably retreated," said Professor
Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at Britain's
prestigious Cambridge University.
"In about 10 years, the Arctic ice will be considered as open sea.",
Wedhams added.
The Arctic ice cap is a very important mix in the climate system.
"Remove the Arctic ice cap and we are left with a very different and
much warmer world," said Dr. Martin Somerkorn, Senior Climate Change
Adviser to the Worldwide Fund for Nature.
He said that the ice meltdown is 'happening faster than we thought'.
Loss of sea ice cover will "set in motion powerful climate feedbacks
which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself," he added.
"This could lead to flooding affecting one quarter of the world's
population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emission from
massive carbon pools and extreme global weather changes."
In the Philippines, flooding and landslides from devastating effects
of typhoons, have been linked to the issue of global warming.
Environmental experts are saying that similar occurences will bring
much more distractions to life and property.
Last year, the UN weather agency WMO said 'Ice volume around the
Arctic region hit the lowest level ever recorded this year as climate
extremes brought death and devastation to many parts of the world.http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/world/12/17/08/arctic-ice-volume-lowest-ev...
____________________________________________________
Harry
[/quote:92e6e5bc36]
Can we laugh at you and the rest of the AGW Kool-Aid drinkers when
there is still arctic ice 10 years from now? |
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| Last Post... |
| Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 3:39 am |
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On Oct 14, 10:52 pm, Harry Hopeless <riv... at (no spam) ix.netcom.com> wrote:
[quote:09431b3980]http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/280517
Arctic Ice Cap to Become an Open Sea in 10 years
•• Just a few years ago the forecast was for 2010.[/quote:09431b3980]
Now the fools have pushed their forecast back
by another decade.
•• In July (09) the fools were claiming open ice
when it was just a normal summer melt. Of
course none of those "Arctic experts" did not
come any closer to an ice floe than the lint on
their monitor screens.
– –
Either way short term or long term the data
doesn't support man made global warming?
short term
http://junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/RSSglobe.html
long term
http://junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/Moberg2005l.htm |
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| tunderbar... |
| Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 3:45 am |
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On Oct 14, 9:52 pm, Harry Hope <riv... at (no spam) ix.netcom.com> wrote:
[quote:b4e1b0727a]http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/280517
Arctic Ice Cap to Become an Open Sea in 10 years
By Leo Reyes.
Some sicentists and climate change explorers predict that the Artic
ice cover will be gone during warmer months in 10 years due to the
effects of global warming.
Veteran polar explorers who spent considerable time doing research in
the Arctic revealed that the Artctic ice cap will disappear in 20-30
years.
It will be largely ice-free during warmer months within a decade.
These observations were noted by a team of research and polar
explorers led by adventurer Pen Hadow and two other British explorers.
"The summer ice cover will completely vanish in 20 to 30 years but in
less than that it will have considerably retreated," said Professor
Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at Britain's
prestigious Cambridge University.
"In about 10 years, the Arctic ice will be considered as open sea.",
Wedhams added.
The Arctic ice cap is a very important mix in the climate system.
"Remove the Arctic ice cap and we are left with a very different and
much warmer world," said Dr. Martin Somerkorn, Senior Climate Change
Adviser to the Worldwide Fund for Nature.
He said that the ice meltdown is 'happening faster than we thought'.
Loss of sea ice cover will "set in motion powerful climate feedbacks
which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself," he added.
"This could lead to flooding affecting one quarter of the world's
population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emission from
massive carbon pools and extreme global weather changes."
In the Philippines, flooding and landslides from devastating effects
of typhoons, have been linked to the issue of global warming.
Environmental experts are saying that similar occurences will bring
much more distractions to life and property.
Last year, the UN weather agency WMO said 'Ice volume around the
Arctic region hit the lowest level ever recorded this year as climate
extremes brought death and devastation to many parts of the world.http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/world/12/17/08/arctic-ice-volume-lowest-ev...
____________________________________________________
Harry
[/quote:b4e1b0727a]
Interesting. A tiny group of 3 "explorers" get dropped off on the
Arctic ice and trudge around for a short couple of weeks, take a few
dozen measurements of some of the ice, once one year, and they can
predict that much with that much certainty with that tiny bit of very
localized ice thickness data.
Now if they made that trek every year, covering 1000 times more area
than they did every year and taking thousands and thousands and
thousands more datapoints, they might begin to scratch the surface of
how the arctic is going to behave in the future.
The fact that they try to pretend that this is an even slightly
scientifically sound endeavor and that somwhow they got some kind if
even slightly scientifically useful data goes to show just how
insanely unscientific the whole agw camp is.
That expedition was a complete joke. They got no useful data. Any
conclusions are based on fantasy. |
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| Last Post... |
| Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 4:47 am |
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On Oct 15, 9:45 am, tunderbar <tdcom... at (no spam) gmail.com> wrote:
[quote:d43887ca3d]On Oct 14, 9:52 pm, Harry Hope <riv... at (no spam) ix.netcom.com> wrote:
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/280517
Arctic Ice Cap to Become an Open Sea in 10 years
By Leo Reyes.
Some sicentists and climate change explorers predict that the Artic
ice cover will be gone during warmer months in 10 years due to the
That expedition was a complete joke. They got no useful data. Any
conclusions are based on fantasy.
[/quote:d43887ca3d]
•• In a ScienceDaily article this morning (which I
posted) the editors admitted that "Under
current predictions of global warming, this
Arctic sink could be diminished ...". Now that
Mann and Griffa have been caught with their
tree rings down ... current predictions of global
warming are dead.
– –
Either way short term or long term the data
doesn't support man made global warming?
short term
http://junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/RSSglobe.html
long term
http://junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/Moberg2005l.htm |
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| Ouroboros Rex... |
| Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 8:32 am |
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Guest
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Last Post wrote:
[quote:73a7db5e78]On Oct 14, 10:52 pm, Harry Hopeless <riv... at (no spam) ix.netcom.com> wrote:
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/280517
Arctic Ice Cap to Become an Open Sea in 10 years
•• Just a few years ago the forecast was for 2010.
Now the fools have pushed their forecast back
by another decade.
•• In July (09) the fools were claiming open ice
when it was just a normal summer melt. Of
course none of those "Arctic experts" did not
come any closer to an ice floe than the lint on
their monitor screens.
[/quote:73a7db5e78]
As usual, the denialist just makes some shit up.
[quote:73a7db5e78]
– –
Either way short term or long term the data
doesn't support man made global warming?
short term
http://junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/RSSglobe.html
long term
http://junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/Moberg2005l.htm
[/quote:73a7db5e78]
Sorry, denialist lie site. |
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| Ouroboros Rex... |
| Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 8:32 am |
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Guest
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tunderbar wrote:
[quote:4fc9c73a1b]On Oct 14, 9:52 pm, Harry Hope <riv... at (no spam) ix.netcom.com> wrote:
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/280517
Arctic Ice Cap to Become an Open Sea in 10 years
By Leo Reyes.
Some sicentists and climate change explorers predict that the Artic
ice cover will be gone during warmer months in 10 years due to the
effects of global warming.
Veteran polar explorers who spent considerable time doing research in
the Arctic revealed that the Artctic ice cap will disappear in 20-30
years.
It will be largely ice-free during warmer months within a decade.
These observations were noted by a team of research and polar
explorers led by adventurer Pen Hadow and two other British
explorers.
"The summer ice cover will completely vanish in 20 to 30 years but in
less than that it will have considerably retreated," said Professor
Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at Britain's
prestigious Cambridge University.
"In about 10 years, the Arctic ice will be considered as open sea.",
Wedhams added.
The Arctic ice cap is a very important mix in the climate system.
"Remove the Arctic ice cap and we are left with a very different and
much warmer world," said Dr. Martin Somerkorn, Senior Climate Change
Adviser to the Worldwide Fund for Nature.
He said that the ice meltdown is 'happening faster than we thought'.
Loss of sea ice cover will "set in motion powerful climate feedbacks
which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself," he added.
"This could lead to flooding affecting one quarter of the world's
population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emission from
massive carbon pools and extreme global weather changes."
In the Philippines, flooding and landslides from devastating effects
of typhoons, have been linked to the issue of global warming.
Environmental experts are saying that similar occurences will bring
much more distractions to life and property.
Last year, the UN weather agency WMO said 'Ice volume around the
Arctic region hit the lowest level ever recorded this year as climate
extremes brought death and devastation to many parts of the
world.http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/world/12/17/08/arctic-ice-volume-lowest-ev...
____________________________________________________
Harry
Interesting. A tiny group of 3 "explorers" get dropped off on the
Arctic ice and trudge around for a short couple of weeks, take a few
dozen measurements of some of the ice, once one year, and they can
predict that much with that much certainty with that tiny bit of very
localized ice thickness data.
Now if they made that trek every year, covering 1000 times more area
than they did every year and taking thousands and thousands and
thousands more datapoints, they might begin to scratch the surface of
how the arctic is going to behave in the future.
The fact that they try to pretend that this is an even slightly
scientifically sound endeavor and that somwhow they got some kind if
even slightly scientifically useful data goes to show just how
insanely unscientific the whole agw camp is.
That expedition was a complete joke. They got no useful data. Any
conclusions are based on fantasy.
[/quote:4fc9c73a1b]
As usual, the denialist just makes some shit up. |
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| BradGuth... |
| Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 9:24 am |
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Guest
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On Oct 14, 7:52 pm, Harry Hope <riv... at (no spam) ix.netcom.com> wrote:
[quote:b1d3472647]http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/280517
Arctic Ice Cap to Become an Open Sea in 10 years
By Leo Reyes.
Some sicentists and climate change explorers predict that the Artic
ice cover will be gone during warmer months in 10 years due to the
effects of global warming.
Veteran polar explorers who spent considerable time doing research in
the Arctic revealed that the Artctic ice cap will disappear in 20-30
years.
It will be largely ice-free during warmer months within a decade.
These observations were noted by a team of research and polar
explorers led by adventurer Pen Hadow and two other British explorers.
"The summer ice cover will completely vanish in 20 to 30 years but in
less than that it will have considerably retreated," said Professor
Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at Britain's
prestigious Cambridge University.
"In about 10 years, the Arctic ice will be considered as open sea.",
Wedhams added.
The Arctic ice cap is a very important mix in the climate system.
"Remove the Arctic ice cap and we are left with a very different and
much warmer world," said Dr. Martin Somerkorn, Senior Climate Change
Adviser to the Worldwide Fund for Nature.
He said that the ice meltdown is 'happening faster than we thought'.
Loss of sea ice cover will "set in motion powerful climate feedbacks
which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself," he added.
"This could lead to flooding affecting one quarter of the world's
population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emission from
massive carbon pools and extreme global weather changes."
In the Philippines, flooding and landslides from devastating effects
of typhoons, have been linked to the issue of global warming.
Environmental experts are saying that similar occurences will bring
much more distractions to life and property.
Last year, the UN weather agency WMO said 'Ice volume around the
Arctic region hit the lowest level ever recorded this year as climate
extremes brought death and devastation to many parts of the world.http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/world/12/17/08/arctic-ice-volume-lowest-ev...
____________________________________________________
Harry
[/quote:b1d3472647]
Open arctic ocean absorbs <90% of solar energy, whereas icy/snowy
covered surface absorbs <10%. It's not terribly hard to do the math,
and otherwise it's pretty much all over except for the fat lady as
mother nature to sing her closing number.
It will not take long before late summer and early fall months of
clear Arctic polar sailing for commercial shipping, fishing and oil
exploration becomes the norm, and otherwise ice-class commercial
shipping manages to get through most winters.
Well know when to run for the hills, especially when it starts snowing
in central Antarctica.
~ BG |
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| I M at (no spam) good guy... |
| Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 3:21 pm |
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Guest
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On Thu, 15 Oct 2009 04:24:47 -0700 (PDT), Monkey Clumps
<spacebrain71 at (no spam) yahoo.com> wrote:
[quote:ae88a648fd]On Oct 14, 10:52Â pm, Harry Hope <riv... at (no spam) ix.netcom.com> wrote:
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/280517
Arctic Ice Cap to Become an Open Sea in 10 years
By Leo Reyes.
Some sicentists and climate change explorers predict that the Artic
ice cover will be gone during warmer months in 10 years due to the
effects of global warming.
Veteran polar explorers who spent considerable time doing research in
the Arctic revealed that the Artctic ice cap will disappear in 20-30
years.
It will be largely ice-free during warmer months within a decade.
These observations were noted by a team of research and polar
explorers led by adventurer Pen Hadow and two other British explorers.
"The summer ice cover will completely vanish in 20 to 30 years but in
less than that it will have considerably retreated," said Professor
Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at Britain's
prestigious Cambridge University.
"In about 10 years, the Arctic ice will be considered as open sea.",
Wedhams added.
The Arctic ice cap is a very important mix in the climate system.
"Remove the Arctic ice cap and we are left with a very different and
much warmer world," said Dr. Martin Somerkorn, Senior Climate Change
Adviser to the Worldwide Fund for Nature.
He said that the ice meltdown is 'happening faster than we thought'.
Loss of sea ice cover will "set in motion powerful climate feedbacks
which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself," he added.
"This could lead to flooding affecting one quarter of the world's
population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emission from
massive carbon pools and extreme global weather changes."
In the Philippines, flooding and landslides from devastating effects
of typhoons, have been linked to the issue of global warming.
Environmental experts are saying that similar occurences will bring
much more distractions to life and property.
Last year, the UN weather agency WMO said 'Ice volume around the
Arctic region hit the lowest level ever recorded this year as climate
extremes brought death and devastation to many parts of the world.http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/world/12/17/08/arctic-ice-volume-lowest-ev...
____________________________________________________
Harry
Can we laugh at you and the rest of the AGW Kool-Aid drinkers when
there is still arctic ice 10 years from now?
[/quote:ae88a648fd]
And a 1,000 years from now, probably a million
years from now, when it gets to 50 below, water freezes,
even salt water freezes pushing the salt crystals out. |
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| bon5o... |
| Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 6:22 pm |
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Guest
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"Monkey Clumps" <spacebrain71 at (no spam) yahoo.com> wrote in
message
news:40e8d5d7-6aaf-4ae1-ae9b-092780d46529 at (no spam) l2g2000yqd.googlegroups.com...
On Oct 14, 10:52 pm, Harry Hope
<riv... at (no spam) ix.netcom.com> wrote:
[quote:8cfe3fcc40]http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/280517
Arctic Ice Cap to Become an Open Sea in 10 years
By Leo Reyes.
Some sicentists and climate change explorers
predict that the Artic
ice cover will be gone during warmer months in
10 years due to the
effects of global warming.
Veteran polar explorers who spent considerable
time doing research in
the Arctic revealed that the Artctic ice cap
will disappear in 20-30
years.
[/quote:8cfe3fcc40]
Ten Reasons Why Catlin Arctic Ice Survey Data Can't
Be Trusted
15 Oct 2009
QUOTE: proper science is done well away from the
media and the results are reported afterwards
QUOTE: Why do "science" at great personal risk
when you already are sure of the end game?
QUOTE: The Catlin Arctic Ice Survey is in my
opinion, nothing more than a badly executed public
relations stunt covered with the thinnest veneer
of attempted science.
First, I loathe having to write another story
about Pen Hadow and his Catlin Arctic Ice
expedition, which I consider the scientific joke
of 2009.
But these opportunistic explorers are once again
getting some press over the "science" data, and of
course it is being used to make the usual alarmist
pronouncements such as this badly written story in
the BBC:
We followed the entire activist affair disguised
as a science expedition from the start.
It's not pretty.
When I say this expedition was the "scientific
joke of 2009?, I mean it.
Top Ten Reasons why the Catlin Arctic Ice Survey
data can't be trusted
10.
High profile news and PR from the beginning, plus
an unrealistic vision of self importance related
to the mission. The entire venture was publicized
well in advance of the actual expedition, and the
mission was "too important to fail" according to
the January 23rd interview with The Guardian
Catlin team leader Pen Hadow said:
"During this mammoth expedition we will gather the
essential data that scientists need to more
accurately determine when the permanent floating
sea ice will disappear altogether. We cannot
afford to fail on this mission - there is too much
at stake."
With pronouncements like that, you also can't
afford not to bring home a result consistent with
the theme of the expedition.
9.
Reality Show Science as reported here, "The trio
will be sending in regular diary entries, videos
and photographs to BBC News throughout their
expedition." When you tie science too closely to
the media from the beginning, it predetermines
some outcomes. That pressure is always there to
produce the story rather than focus on the task.
This is why most proper science is done well away
from the media and the results are reported
afterwards.
8.
Hadow, by his own admission, has an unrealistic
and biased warmer view of the Arctic that doesn't
match the current data.
In his Curriculum Vitae posted here, he writes:
"Twenty years ago, you could walk to the North
Pole - now you have to swim part of the way
there."
Only problem is, the satellite data showed a
completely different picture of solid ice, and
Hadow's expedition encountered temperatures
of -42ºC along the way, and the vast majority of
the trip was below 0ºC.
He didn't encounter vast leads of water along the
way, and in fact encountered ice conditions far
worse than he expected. This shows his bias for a
warmer trip from the start.
7.
The Catlin team's "scientific" advisor at the
beginning of the trip seemed to already have a
predetermined outcome for the Arctic. In this BBC
article and interview they write of Professor
Wieslaw Maslowski, a "science" advisor to the
survey:
"Ultimately, Professor Maslowski hopes to finesse
his forecast for when the first ice-free summer
might arrive.
Currently, he has it down for 2013 - but with an
uncertainty range between 2010 and 2016."
So if they already had this figured out from the
beginning, why make the trip at all?
Is it so the BBC could recycle the headline again
today saying Arctic to be 'ice-free in summer'?
Why do "science" at great personal risk when you
already are sure of the end game?
There's also another nugget of predisposition
wisdom by Catlin's science advisor Professor
Maslowski. Read on.
6.
They failed to advise of major equipment failure
in a timely manner, inviting suspicion. The ice
radar sounding equipment that was designed to do
the thickness survey failed miserably, almost from
day one, yet even though they were "sending in
regular diary entries, videos and photographs to
BBC News throughout their expedition," the world
didn't learn of that failure until day 44 of the
73 day expedition.
When Apollo 13 had a problem, the world knew about
it almost immediately.
When Catlin had a problem, it was covered up for
well over a month, yet that didn't stop the BBC
from paraphrasing Apollo 13's famous words for a
headline 'London, we have a problem' as if there
was some parallel in integrity and timeliness
here.
5.
Hadow and his scientific advisor erroneously
believed that their expedition was the only way
ice thickness measurements could be done, and they
seemed oblivious to other efforts and systems.
From this BBC article and interview:
"No other information on ice thickness like this
is expected to be made available to the scientific
community in 2009," explained Arctic ice modeller
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, a science advisor to
the survey.
While this was obviously a selling point to
sponsors and an ego boost for the team, it was
flat wrong.
For example, there's a bouy network that provides
ice thickness data,.
Then there's ICEsat which provides mass and
balance measurements, as well as ice thickness
maps, shown below:
ICESat data for Fall 2008, source NASA Scientific
Visualization Studio
As reported by us, another data source of Arctic
Ice thickness in 2009 came in the form of an
aerial survey with a towed radar array from the
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine
Research.
They didn't have to risk lives, create drama, or
bleat constant headlines to the BBC while doing
the science. They simply flew the plane over the
ice a few times.
Here are some excerpts of what was reported on
WUWT in the story Inconvenient Eisdicken -
"surprising results" from the Arctic
At the North Pole ice sheet is thicker than
expected
The "Polar 5? in Bremerhaven
The research aircraft Polar 5 "ended today in
Canada's recent Arctic expedition. During the
flight, researchers have measured the current
Eisstärke measured at the North Pole, and in areas
that have never before been overflown. Result: The
sea-ice in the surveyed areas is apparently
thicker than the researchers had suspected.
Normally, ice is newly formed after two years,
over two meters thick. "Here were Eisdicken up to
four meters," said a spokesman of Bremerhaven's
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine
Research. For scientists, this result is still in
contradiction to the warming of the seawater.
Gosh. Where's the polar death defying drama in
that?
4.
Due to the extreme cold conditions they were not
fully prepared for, they completed less than half
of the planned trip.
Originally it was to be a 1000 kilometer trip to
the North Pole which according to early interviews
given by Hadow was easily done, yet they failed.
The original start point was to be at 81N 130W but
they actually started closer to the pole by about
100 kilometers.
According to the Google Earth KML file provided by
Catlin, they started at 81.7N 129.7W and ended at
85.5N 125.6W for a total distance of approximately
435 kilometers over 73 days. Hardly a broad survey
of the Arctic Ice when put into perspective on the
Google Earth and ICEsat maps:
Here's the Catlin Arctic Ice Survey Route overlaid
on the ICEsat map. You can see just how little of
the ice was actually surveyed.
Note that the ICEsat image is from Fall 2008,
while the Catlin trip was in the Spring of 2009.
Since we all know sea ice moves, often connected
to the Beaufort Gyre, it is likely that the path
depicted does not represent the ice Catlin
actually traveled over. The sea ice may have moved
so that the Catlin path traversed some of the
thinner ice to the west, though some thickening of
the ice would also be expected during the winter
of 2009. The point of this map was to put the
route in perspective.
3.
There's very little actual data return for 73 days
on the ice, only 39 datapoints.
CAS Snow Ice Measurements - Final 2009
Final surveying results from the 2009 expedition.
The actual number of holes drilled and measured
for ice thickness by Pen Hadow is said to be in
the hundreds, and what we see in the Excel file is
the average of those many holes at each drilling
session.
While I commend them for providing the raw hole
data, problems with potential measurement bias don't
appear to be well addressed in the methodology
paper they provide here (PDF) while it is
mentioned in the preliminary June report:
"One further consideration, when interpreting the
ice thickness measurements made by the Catlin
Arctic Survey team, may be navigational bias.
Typically, the surface of First Year Ice floes are
flatterthan that of multi-year ice floes and
because the team systematically seeks out flatter
ice which is easier to travel over and camp on,
there is a risk that the ice surveyed will not be
representative."
Since they make no mention of the potential
measurement bias in the final report, it appears
that there wasn't anything but lip service
consideration given to it in the early report,
possibly to appease critics.
2.
One of the most prominent sea ice researchers in
the world, Dr. Walt Meier of NSIDC said he would
not use the Catlin data saying in a post here on
WUWT:
"I don't anticipate using the Catlin data."
That begs the question then, beyond the use of the
data for generating news stories like we've seen
in the BBC and other media outlets, who will?
Even the media outlets have ignored the actual
data Catlin made available, preferring sound bites
over data bytes.
1.
The Catlin Arctic Ice Survey knowingly presented
false data to the public and to the media in their
web presentation.
As many WUWT readers recall, it was here that it
was discovered that Catlin's website had bogus
telemetry data on it, giving the impression of
"live data from the ice" when in fact the data
repeated in an endless loop from a short period.
Here's the story from WUWT
Catlin Arctic Survey website recycles biotelemetry
data?
Something quite odd is going on at the Catlin
Arctic Survey website at:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/
It appears that they are presenting recycled data
from the biotelemetry sensors on the team. The
"live from the ice" biotelemetry data for each
team member is presented here:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
A WUWT commenter posted this:
karl heuer (07:40:46) :
The "Live from the Ice" biotelemetry is definitely
not live:
When the data loads,
Pen Hadow core temp starts at 33.25 C every time
the page loads, then increments up to 33.57,
33.64, 33.7, 33.75
every time, I have refreshed, cleared temp files
and rebooted - still the same
WUWT commenter "hotrod" did his own check:
I just tried it looking at Pen Haddow's pulse
rate - Hmmm what are the odds that 32 consecutive
pulse rate measurements would be identical?
Yes looks like the bio metric data is just white
was to make their site look nifty, and has
absolutely no value at all - perhaps they already
have all their ice measurements in the can too?
When called out on the bogus telemetry data issue,
the Catlin support team, rather than addressing
the issue head on and with transparency, simply
changed the web page for "live" telemetry to read
"demonstrational", and it remains that way today.
Of course they could just end the farce and remove
it. Because, well, who needs demonstrational
biotelemetry anyway?
They also posted this at the bottom of the main
page:
An apology
We'd like to apologise to anybody who felt misled
by our recent biometric data. The data was
initially displayed in error in a way that gave
the impression that it was live. The intended
qualification and explanation that it was, in
fact, delayed information, was at first missing.
We have subsequently corrected this with specific
information concerning the above data. We
apologise for the errors and to anyone who may
have found the data misleading.
The real question is: how long would they have let
that "live" impression go on had WUWT not called
them on it? Originally the URL for the
"biotelemetry" was
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
Now that URL if typed in your browser is
automatically redirected to:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/latestfromtheice
So with the words "telemetry" and
"live_from_the_ice.aspx" it is clear what the
original intent was. The apology is about saving
face, nothing else.
So the question to readers and media is:
with these sorts of issues listed above, do you
really want to trust the data from a group of
people that perform and present "science" in this
way?
If you do, it would seem to me that you are
putting form over substance. Even if we didn't
have these trust issues, are 39 datapoints over a
short section of the Arctic really that useful
given the other tools shown to be at the disposal
of real science?
The Catlin Arctic Ice Survey is in my opinion,
nothing more than a badly executed public
relations stunt covered with the thinnest veneer
of attempted science.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/15/top-ten-reasons-why-i-think-catlin-arctic-ice-survey-data-cant-be-trusted/
Regards
Bonz0
"I care about the environment (I grew up in a
solar house) and think there are a dozen good
reasons why we should burn less fossil fuels,
but.global warming is not one of them."
Nir Shaviv, Israeli physicist 2009 |
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| Mr.B1ack... |
| Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:25 am |
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Guest
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It was supposed to disappear THIS year ... so the 'experts' said.
It didn't.
Stupid ice .... |
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| Peter Muehlbauer... |
| Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:59 am |
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Guest
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Mr.B1ack <bw at (no spam) barrk.net> wrote:
[quote:da392e6e78]It was supposed to disappear THIS year ... so the 'experts' said.
It didn't.
Stupid ice ....
[/quote:da392e6e78]
If I'd have some heat left over, I'd spend it for Arctic melting.
But I haven't enough to keep me from shivering.
Maybe we should start a collecte? |
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| Last Post... |
| Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 3:49 am |
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On Oct 15, 3:24 pm, BradGuth <bradg... at (no spam) gmail.com> wrote:
[quote:a74821bf42]On Oct 14, 7:52 pm, Harry Hopeless <riv... at (no spam) ix.netcom.com> wrote:
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/280517
Arctic Ice Cap to Become an Open Sea in 10 years
By Leo Reyes.
Some sicentists and climate change explorers predict that the Artic
ice cover will be gone during warmer months in 10 years due to the
effects of global warming.
Veteran polar explorers who spent considerable time doing research in
the Arctic revealed that the Artctic ice cap will disappear in 20-30
years.
It will be largely ice-free during warmer months within a decade.
These observations were noted by a team of research and polar
explorers led by adventurer Pen Hadow and two other British explorers.
"The summer ice cover will completely vanish in 20 to 30 years but in
less than that it will have considerably retreated," said Professor
Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at Britain's
prestigious Cambridge University.
"In about 10 years, the Arctic ice will be considered as open sea.",
Wedhams added.
The Arctic ice cap is a very important mix in the climate system.
"Remove the Arctic ice cap and we are left with a very different and
much warmer world," said Dr. Martin Somerkorn, Senior Climate Change
Adviser to the Worldwide Fund for Nature.
He said that the ice meltdown is 'happening faster than we thought'.
Loss of sea ice cover will "set in motion powerful climate feedbacks
which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself," he added.
"This could lead to flooding affecting one quarter of the world's
population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emission from
massive carbon pools and extreme global weather changes."
In the Philippines, flooding and landslides from devastating effects
of typhoons, have been linked to the issue of global warming.
Environmental experts are saying that similar occurences will bring
much more distractions to life and property.
Last year, the UN weather agency WMO said 'Ice volume around the
Arctic region hit the lowest level ever recorded this year as climate
extremes brought death and devastation to many parts of the world.http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/world/12/17/08/arctic-ice-volume-lowest-ev...
[/quote:a74821bf42]
•• Wonderful science at (no spam) abs-cbnnews.com- NOT!!
[quote:a74821bf42]
Open arctic ocean absorbs <90% of solar energy, whereas icy/snowy
covered surface absorbs <10%. It's not terribly hard to do the math,
and otherwise it's pretty much all over except for the fat lady as
mother nature to sing her closing number.
It will not take long before late summer and early fall months of
clear Arctic polar sailing for commercial shipping, fishing and oil
exploration becomes the norm, and otherwise ice-class commercial
shipping manages to get through most winters.
[/quote:a74821bf42]
•• What proof do you have for any of that
nonsense??
[quote:a74821bf42]Well know when to run for the hills, especially when it starts snowing
in central Antarctica.
•• Sorry bud, It is springtime in Antarctica.[/quote:a74821bf42]
•• The authors of the lynchpins (hockey stick) of
your non-science crap, have been revealed as
the cherry picking frauds that they are. You
will have to wait for 100,000 years before your
next chance at an open Arctic sea lane.
Can you wait that long?? <G>
– –
Either way short term or long term the data
doesn't support man made global warming?
short term
http://junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/RSSglobe.html
long term
http://junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/Moberg2005l.htm |
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| Robert Grumbine... |
| Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 10:47 am |
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In article <4adgd5h6fq30o0ff6gi34itq4kl4ar8hm0 at (no spam) nntp.frankenexpress.de>, Peter Muehlbauer wrote:
[quote:f2f73db507]Mr.B1ack <bw at (no spam) barrk.net> wrote:
It was supposed to disappear THIS year ... so the 'experts' said.
[/quote:f2f73db507]
What experts said that? Links or citations please.
--
Robert Grumbine http://moregrumbinescience.blogspot.com/ Science blog
Sagredo (Galileo Galilei) "You present these recondite matters with too much
evidence and ease; this great facility makes them less appreciated than they
would be had they been presented in a more abstruse manner." Two New Sciences |
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