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Message |
| Nikolay... |
 Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2009 4:50 am |
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Guest
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Hello,
Here is my problem :
If a man has 10% chance to be laid off during the year 2010, what is
the chance he will be laid off from 1st to 31st March 2009?
I make the hypothesis than the rate of 10% is constant during the
months of the year. However, when using the binomial distribution I
have the following results for each month:
Pourcentage Month
10% Jan
9% Feb
8% Mar
7% Apr
7% May
6% Jun
5% Jul
5% Aug
4% Sep
4% Oct
3% Nov
3% Dec
28% Still employed
This does not correspond to 10% for the entire year, it is much more
(1-0.2 . Moreover, the percentages are obviously not equal month
compared to another. I do not thing the problem should be treated as a
coin toss. Should I divide 10% by 12 to have equal probability?
Thanks in advance for you help.
Zab |
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