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Science Forum Index » Geology - Earthquakes Forum » 12:18...
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| Dawlish... |
 Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 2:22 am |
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On May 10, 12:43 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On May 10, 8:56 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Therefore a change in the spell from the predictable to the actual of
5 hours is the equivalent of 5 billion tons of TNT per region
affected.
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/louie/class/100/magnitude.html
Hence the need to specify harmonics as per the question that started
this whole fracas off in the first place:
http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/e447e....
Which Low, as it happens, is still pending at 60 N 30 W:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html
Furthermore the two North Atlantic cells are of the same order of
magnitude. The High focussed at Oslo/Gothenburg and the Low at 55 N 35
W are both about 1 hour wide.
OK, they cover some 20 or 40 degrees but the actual diameter is
Gothenburg to Edinburgh, isn't that far off 15 degrees on a great
circle.
I like that coincidence. 15 degrees suits me.
I'm afraid it's a case of "whatever" here. You can write about all the
imaginary links you want, but without any success in using it to
predict, you are simply writing made-up nonsense; however much you
wish it to be true.
Looking forward to you defining "major" volcanic eruption then it
actually occurring by noon on Monday; otherwise, your prediction
accuracy over the last few weeks, stands at zero. I think you are
desperately wanting this one to be correct and 33% looks a lot better
than zero. |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 4:48 am |
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On May 10, 12:43 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On May 10, 8:56 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Therefore a change in the spell from the predictable to the actual of
5 hours is the equivalent of 5 billion tons of TNT per region
affected.
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/louie/class/100/magnitude.html
Hence the need to specify harmonics as per the question that started
this whole fracas off in the first place:
http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/e447e...
Which Low, as it happens, is still pending at 60 N 30 W:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html
Furthermore the two North Atlantic cells are of the same order of
magnitude. The High focussed at Oslo/Gothenburg and the Low at 55 N 35
W are both about 1 hour wide.
OK, they cover some 20 or 40 degrees but the actual diameter is
Gothenburg to Edinburgh, isn't that far off 15 degrees on a great
circle.
I like that coincidence. 15 degrees suits me.
That should have read radius from Gothenburg to Edinburgh. The
diameter is more like 15 degrees as if from Edinburgh to Helsinki.
Anyway, the last quake was nearly 18 hours back so we might be getting
another storm. |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 5:52 am |
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On May 10, 3:48 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On May 10, 12:43 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
On May 10, 8:56 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Therefore a change in the spell from the predictable to the actual of
5 hours is the equivalent of 5 billion tons of TNT per region
affected.
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/louie/class/100/magnitude.html
Hence the need to specify harmonics as per the question that started
this whole fracas off in the first place:
http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/e447e...
Which Low, as it happens, is still pending at 60 N 30 W:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html
Furthermore the two North Atlantic cells are of the same order of
magnitude. The High focussed at Oslo/Gothenburg and the Low at 55 N 35
W are both about 1 hour wide.
OK, they cover some 20 or 40 degrees but the actual diameter is
Gothenburg to Edinburgh, isn't that far off 15 degrees on a great
circle.
I like that coincidence. 15 degrees suits me.
That should have read radius from Gothenburg to Edinburgh. The
diameter is more like 15 degrees as if from Edinburgh to Helsinki.
Anyway, the last quake was nearly 18 hours back so we might be getting
another storm.
Ah well they upgraded that Japanese quake after downgrading it
earlier. So that was a 15/16 hour break. And severe winds in the New
England region. Hardly hurricane force but then what you gonna do
boudit?
Winter weather warnings on there too:
>http://www.weather.gov/ |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 9:21 am |
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Pretty is as pretty does.
These may not be giving the information they are supposed to be doing
but if they are giving neat computer output from direct digital data
feeds, they are giving us notice of something else.
This first one for instance:
Quote: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_pac_gale_0.gif
is obviously advising us of the Cat 2 in the Pacific.
Apparently this one needs correcting:
Quote: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_atl_gale_0.gif
Without the corrections -which amount to erasure I imagine, it might
help us understand what data the system holds that might be being
overlooked.
No offence to anybody in particular but it seems to be a given for
satellite data.
Not that it makes all that much difference to weather forecasting but
who cares about weather forecasts? They are inaccurate over 5 days
either way. |
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| Dawlish... |
| Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 10:55 am |
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On May 10, 8:21 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: Pretty is as pretty does.
These may not be giving the information they are supposed to be doing
but if they are giving neat computer output from direct digital data
feeds, they are giving us notice of something else.
This first one for instance:>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_pac_ga...
is obviously advising us of the Cat 2 in the Pacific.
Apparently this one needs correcting:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_atl_ga...
Without the corrections -which amount to erasure I imagine, it might
help us understand what data the system holds that might be being
overlooked.
No offence to anybody in particular but it seems to be a given for
satellite data.
Not that it makes all that much difference to weather forecasting but
who cares about weather forecasts? They are inaccurate over 5 days
either way.
Perhaps, with your record since 24th June, the weather forecasts are
FAR more accurate.
Still waiting for you to back your proposed links up with forecast
accuracy data.
You're struggling aren't you..........and this won't go away. |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 4:42 pm |
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It is now the last day before the spell ends as far as the UK is
concerned. But the USA gets an imprint on things to come one day ahead
of us. Take a look at what is going on here:
Quote: http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html
If I had to rate that output in kilotons, I'd say:
A lot!
Which bodes ill for this next spell. Traditionally this month is one
for thunderstorms of great power in the UK, which is not saying much
by Congolese or Floridian standards. But it is a time that is
difficult for me to predict what an unstable spell is going to do. And
this one is bad enough.
12's and 6's are easily overridden by more powerful spells preceding
them, that spate of spells just gone is a fine example of that. Those
spells were nearly 10's -or if you give them their Weather Lore
denominations:
4's.
This next spell is near enough a 4 too. A classical one, no
interpretation, no extrapolation. So this set up is going to prove
interesting.
Meanwhile it is end-game for this spell, so keep on the watch for the
unexpected. For you know what to expect with the unexpected now, don't
you children? |
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| ... |
| Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 11:02 pm |
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On 11 May, 03:42, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: It is now the last day before the spell ends as far as the UK is
concerned. But the USA gets an imprint on things to come one day ahead
of us. Take a look at what is going on here:
http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html
If I had to rate that output in kilotons, I'd say:
A lot!
It's an area of low pressure moving east across the USA - nothing
unusual in that at this time of year.
Tornadoes likely, nothing unusual in that at this time of year.
Quote:
Which bodes ill for this next spell. Traditionally this month is one
for thunderstorms of great power in the UK, which is not saying much
by Congolese or Floridian standards.
Well that is not surprising either, given their latitude. Especially
with the Congo being on/near the Equator.
Quote:
12's and 6's are easily overridden by more powerful spells preceding
them, that spate of spells just gone is a fine example of that. Those
spells were nearly 10's -or if you give them their Weather Lore
denominations:
4's.
Now this is a real classic.
You may be familiar with this site
http://www.hibberts.co.uk/collect2/tempres.htm
Are you aware of a place where they study this kind of theory?
I think it is in Nottinghamshire.
Near Retford. It is a nice part of the country, near what remains of
Sherwood Forest, and now much cleaner after the closure of those
awfully filthy nearby coal mines.
I'm sure there are many people there that will listen intently to what
you have to say.....
It is called Rampton. |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 12:23 pm |
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On 11 May, 21:32, Harold Brooks <hebrook... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: In article <30a432ce-2306-46be-b385-ae23c6a4ff0a at (no spam)
24g2000hsh.googlegroups.com>, Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com says...
U. S. G E O L O G I C A L S U R V E Y
E A R T H Q U A K E D A T A B A S E
FILE CREATED: Fri May 9 10:00:11 2008
Global Search Earthquakes= 12
Catalog Used: NOAA
Date Range: Year: 1971 - 1971 Month: 01/Day: 01 Month: 12/
Day: 31
Magnitude Range: 7.0 - 10.0
Data Selection: Significant Earthquakes World Wide (NOAA)
Why would the NEIC be using a NOAA database if it were in error?
It's not so much in error as it is different. It goes back earlier in
time than the USGS data.
Thus making it a superior source of data for the years specified?
So I search for quakes of 7 M or more falling between 90 south and 90
north and whatever the full circle is east and west and every day from
January the first to December the thirty first inclusive and the
search misses half of them and it's my fault because I failed to read
the fine print?
Quote: I can't seem to find the details in your previous posts. A bit dense I
know, so what am I going to do?
Improve your reading comprehension. Go to the NEIC site that you
searched from and select "USGS/NEIC (PDE) 1973 - Present"
I don't think I'll find many earthquakes from 19~ 50, 51, 52, 60, 61,
62, 70 or 72 on that will I? |
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| Harold Brooks... |
| Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 3:32 pm |
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In article <30a432ce-2306-46be-b385-ae23c6a4ff0a at (no spam)
24g2000hsh.googlegroups.com>, Weatherlawyer at (no spam) hotmail.com says...
Quote: On May 9, 10:34 pm, Harold Brooks <hebrook... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
In article <abadbb16-3d4a-4d3a-982c-2e9ffe16d985
at (no spam) k37g2000hsf.googlegroups.com>, Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com says...
This is from the NEIC: 5.5 Magnitude earthquake at 23:21 on 8th May
2008.
18 hours since the last one, therefore a storm brewing maybe. It is
certainly heading that way.
From NEIC, based on the ~1500 M5+ earthquakes per year, there are about
480 M5.5+ earthquakes per year, or about 1 every 18 hours. (There have
been 43 5.5 or larger quakes in the last 30 days.)
What did you make of the facts I pointed out to you earlier? A series
of years with less than 8 quakes of 7 M and over per annum.
I made of it that you didn't know how to do the search on the NEIC
website. The NOAA catalog of significant earthquakes, which is what you
searched, has less than half of the earthquakes that the NEIC database
has. For 1990-2, from your search, NOAA had 9, 6, and 13, respectively.
Searching the NEIC database gives 18, 18, and 24. If you had looked at
"USGS/NEIC (PDE) 1973 - Present", instead of "Significant Worldwide
Earthquakes (2150 B.C. - 1994 A.D.)", you'd have gotten a very different
answer.
This was a NOAA site?
NEIC: Earthquake Search Results
U. S. G E O L O G I C A L S U R V E Y
E A R T H Q U A K E D A T A B A S E
FILE CREATED: Fri May 9 10:00:11 2008
Global Search Earthquakes= 12
Catalog Used: NOAA
Date Range: Year: 1971 - 1971 Month: 01/Day: 01 Month: 12/
Day: 31
Magnitude Range: 7.0 - 10.0
Data Selection: Significant Earthquakes World Wide (NOAA)
CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM
DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS
NOAA 1971 01 10 0717 -3.20 139.70 34 8.10 MsNOAA
9D.. .......
NOAA 1971 02 04 1533 0.50 98.70 40 7.10 MsNOAA
9D.. .......
NOAA 1971 05 22 1643 38.80 40.50 3 7.00
MsNOAA .C.. .......
NOAA 1971 06 17 21 -25.40 -69.40 76 7.00 MsNOAA
5C.. .......
NOAA 1971 07 09 0303 -32.50 -71.30 58 7.50 MsNOAA
9C.. .T.....
NOAA 1971 07 14 0611 -5.50 153.90 47 7.90 MsNOAA
7C.. .T.....
NOAA 1971 07 26 0123 -4.90 153.20 43 7.90 MsNOAA
6D.. .T.....
NOAA 1971 07 27 0203 -2.70 -77.40 135 7.50 MsNOAA
7C.. .......
NOAA 1971 09 05 1835 46.80 141.20 9 7.70 MsNOAA
9D.. .T.....
NOAA 1971 10 27 1758 -15.60 167.20 49 7.10 MsNOAA
7C.. .......
NOAA 1971 11 24 1935 52.90 159.20 106 7.50
MsNOAA .... .......
NOAA 1971 12 15 0829 55.90 163.40 30 7.80 MsNOAA
XF.. .......
Why would the NEIC be using a NOAA database if it were in error?
It's not so much in error as it is different. It goes back earlier in
time than the USGS data.
Quote:
I was wondering, too, why the National oceans and Atmosphere people
were storing seismic tables. It turns out they are chargeds with the
responsibility of storing most of the USA's geophysics data:
"Welcome to the World Data Center for Solid Earth Geophysics, Boulder.
The WDC for SEG is maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) in
Boulder, Colorado.
The WDC SEG maintains extensive data and documentation compilations in
a number of geophysical and environmental disciplines, including
historic tsunamis, significant earthquakes, Earth magnetism,
paleomagnetism, topography, gravity, and ecosystems.
Data come from surface, aircraft and satellite platforms. See our list
of datasets held by the WDC for SEG."
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/wdc/
It's not my problem whatever you think. Here is the search from a
different catalogue:
Global CMT Catalog
Search criteria:
Start date: 1976/1/1 End date: 1977/1/1
-90 <=lat<= 90 -180 <=lon<= 180
0 <=depth<= 1000 -9999 <=time shift<= 9999
0 <=mb<= 10 0<=Ms<= 10 7<=Mw<= 10
0 <=tension plunge<= 90 0 <=null plunge<= 90
Results
010176A KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
Date: 1976/ 1/ 1 Centroid Time: 1:29:53.4 GMT
Lat= -29.25 Lon=-176.96
Depth= 47.8 Half duration= 9.4
Centroid time minus hypocenter time: 13.8
Moment Tensor: Expo=26 7.680 0.090 -7.770 1.390 4.520 -3.260
Mw = 7.3 mb = 6.2 Ms = 0.0 Scalar Moment = 9.56e+26
Fault plane: strike=202 dip=30 slip=93
Fault plane: strike=18 dip=60 slip=88
011476A KERMADEC ISLANDS
Date: 1976/ 1/14 Centroid Time: 15:56: 7.5 GMT
Lat= -29.69 Lon=-177.04
Depth= 46.7 Half duration=20.0
Centroid time minus hypocenter time: 32.6
Moment Tensor: Expo=27 4.780 -0.490 -4.300 0.830 3.620 -1.320
Mw = 7.8 mb = 6.3 Ms = 0.0 Scalar Moment = 6.02e+27
Fault plane: strike=200 dip=26 slip=95
Fault plane: strike=15 dip=64 slip=88
011476B KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
Date: 1976/ 1/14 Centroid Time: 16:47:44.8 GMT
Lat= -28.72 Lon=-176.75
Depth= 17.7 Half duration=20.5
Centroid time minus hypocenter time: 11.3
Moment Tensor: Expo=27 2.560 0.180 -2.740 3.580 6.770 -1.230
Mw = 7.9 mb = 6.5 Ms = 8.0 Scalar Moment = 8.18e+27
Fault plane: strike=189 dip=11 slip=71
Fault plane: strike=28 dip=80 slip=93
012176A KURIL ISLANDS
Date: 1976/ 1/21 Centroid Time: 10: 5:33.6 GMT
Lat= 44.58 Lon= 149.49
Depth= 26.5 Half duration= 9.3
Centroid time minus hypocenter time: 9.5
Moment Tensor: Expo=26 3.210 -1.490 -1.720 2.870 5.330 -1.840
Mw = 7.2 mb = 6.3 Ms = 7.0 Scalar Moment = 6.91e+26
Fault plane: strike=237 dip=16 slip=116
Fault plane: strike=30 dip=76 slip=83
020476A GUATEMALA
Date: 1976/ 2/ 4 Centroid Time: 9: 1: 7.2 GMT
Lat= 15.14 Lon= -89.78
Depth= 16.3 Half duration=13.8
Centroid time minus hypocenter time: 23.8
Moment Tensor: Expo=27 -0.350 -0.780 1.120 0.380 -0.470 1.670
Mw = 7.5 mb = 6.2 Ms = 7.5 Scalar Moment = 2.04e+27
Fault plane: strike=254 dip=73 slip=-10
Fault plane: strike=347 dip=80 slip=-162
032476A KERMADEC ISLANDS
Date: 1976/ 3/24 Centroid Time: 4:46:16.4 GMT
Lat= -29.99 Lon=-177.51
Depth= 54.1 Half duration= 8.1
Centroid time minus hypocenter time: 12.0
Moment Tensor: Expo=26 3.670 0.120 -3.780 0.070 1.780 -1.410
Mw = 7.0 mb = 6.4 Ms = 6.8 Scalar Moment = 4.34e+26
Fault plane: strike=206 dip=34 slip=103
Fault plane: strike=11 dip=57 slip=81
050576A KERMADEC ISLANDS
Date: 1976/ 5/ 5 Centroid Time: 4:52: 2.6 GMT
Lat= -29.84 Lon=-177.43
Depth= 41.8 Half duration= 7.9
Centroid time minus hypocenter time: 11.6
Moment Tensor: Expo=26 3.630 0.040 -3.660 0.150 1.800 -1.750
Mw = 7.0 mb = 6.2 Ms = 6.8 Scalar Moment = 4.39e+26
Fault plane: strike=211 dip=34 slip=105
Fault plane: strike=13 dip=57 slip=80
060376A NEW IRELAND REGION
Date: 1976/ 6/ 3 Centroid Time: 16:44:53.1 GMT
Lat= -4.75 Lon= 153.47
Depth= 85.9 Half duration= 8.7
Centroid time minus hypocenter time: 14.3
Moment Tensor: Expo=26 5.110 -1.330 -3.780 -1.270 2.650 2.710
Mw = 7.1 mb = 6.2 Ms = 0.0 Scalar Moment = 6.08e+26
Fault plane: strike=143 dip=31 slip=83
Fault plane: strike=331 dip=59 slip=94
062076A NORTHERN SUMATERA
Date: 1976/ 6/20 Centroid Time: 20:53:23.5 GMT
Lat= 3.18 Lon= 96.24
Depth= 19.1 Half duration= 7.5
Centroid time minus hypocenter time: 10.1
Moment Tensor: Expo=26 2.430 -0.020 -2.410 1.120 -1.680 1.840
Mw = 7.0 mb = 6.3 Ms = 7.0 Scalar Moment = 3.55e+26
Fault plane: strike=338 dip=28 slip=99
Fault plane: strike=147 dip=62 slip=85
http://www.globalcmt.org/cgi-bin/globalcmt-cgi-bin/CMT3/form?itype=ymd&yr=1976&mo=1&day=1&otype=ymd&oyr=1977&omo=1&oday=1&jyr=1976&jday=1&ojyr=1976&ojday=1&nday=1&lmw=7&umw=10&lms=0&ums=10&lmb=0&umb=10&llat=-90&ulat=90&llon=-180&ulon=180&lhd=0&uhd=1000<s=-9999&uts=9999&lpe1=0&upe1=90&lpe2=0&upe2=90&list=0
Respectfully, the problem is yours. You've failed to complete this
search. Do it again, go to the bottom of that page, and click on the
highlighed "More solutions" in the phrase "More solutions with same
search criteria" and you'll see the rest of the year with an additional
8 earthquakes meeting the criteria.
Quote: Perhaps you would care to put me right and give me a link to a search
of a catalogue more to your tastes? Maybe include the parameters?
I don't particularly have "a catalogue more to [my] tastes." I was only
pointing out that you were being inconsistent in the comparison. If you
had read the post you replied to (and included in your reply), you would
have read "If you had looked at 'USGS/NEIC (PDE) 1973 - Present',
instead of 'Significant Worldwide Earthquakes (2150 B.C. - 1994 A.D.)',
you'd have gotten a very different answer."
Quote:
I can't seem to find the details in your previous posts. A bit dense I
know, so what am I going to do?
Improve your reading comprehension. Go to the NEIC site that you
searched from and select "USGS/NEIC (PDE) 1973 - Present" instead of
"Significant Worldwide Earthquakes (2150 B.C. - 1994 A.D.)"
Harold
--
Harold Brooks
hebrooks87 hotmail.com |
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| Dawlish... |
| Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 9:09 pm |
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On May 11, 11:23 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On 11 May, 21:32, Harold Brooks <hebrook... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
In article <30a432ce-2306-46be-b385-ae23c6a4ff0a at (no spam)
24g2000hsh.googlegroups.com>, Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com says...
U. S. G E O L O G I C A L S U R V E Y
E A R T H Q U A K E D A T A B A S E
FILE CREATED: Fri May 9 10:00:11 2008
Global Search Earthquakes= 12
Catalog Used: NOAA
Date Range: Year: 1971 - 1971 Month: 01/Day: 01 Month: 12/
Day: 31
Magnitude Range: 7.0 - 10.0
Data Selection: Significant Earthquakes World Wide (NOAA)
Why would the NEIC be using a NOAA database if it were in error?
It's not so much in error as it is different. It goes back earlier in
time than the USGS data.
Thus making it a superior source of data for the years specified?
"Welcome to the World Data Center for Solid Earth Geophysics, Boulder.
The WDC for SEG is maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) in
Boulder, Colorado.
Data come from surface, aircraft and satellite platforms. See our list
of datasets held by the WDC for SEG."
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/wdc/
http://www.globalcmt.org/cgi-bin/globalcmt-cgi-bin/CMT3/form?itype=ym...
So I search for quakes of 7 M or more falling between 90 south and 90
north and whatever the full circle is east and west and every day from
January the first to December the thirty first inclusive and the
search misses half of them and it's my fault because I failed to read
the fine print?
I can't seem to find the details in your previous posts. A bit dense I
know, so what am I going to do?
Improve your reading comprehension. Go to the NEIC site that you
searched from and select "USGS/NEIC (PDE) 1973 - Present"
I don't think I'll find many earthquakes from 19~ 50, 51, 52, 60, 61,
62, 70 or 72 on that will I?- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
A 7.5+ earthquake in China.
You missed it by your predictions and I got it spot on with mine. You
predicted a 7.5 earthquake and missed it by a week. I predicted a 7.5
earthquake and got it spot on in the timescale I presented. The
difference? I understand the probabilities and how to use them far
better than you do. That's all we are talking about here. Not
harmonics, or resonance, or interactions of tectonics, atmosphere and
the pull of close celestial bodies, but movements of plates, very
probably completely independent of any of your theories, but
nevertheless presently unpredictable. Seismologists are always on the
watch for the unexpected, W and the unexpected has again happened;
pretty much a once a year earthquake magnitude, this one, completely
unspotted by your theories again, just like you missed Chaiten
erupting, but they are not contacting you for advice. That must be
galling for you, as it will be terribly galling for you when you wake
up and see the news this morning and find you have missed another
"major" event.
Now the Chinese authorities has the aftermath of a 7.5+ earthquake to
deal with in the run up to the olympics. it'll test them, but of
course, you believe they are just "commies" and as such have little
worth.
Still waiting for the "major" volcanic eruption. There has been an
eruption in Kamchatka, in Russia, but you could hardly describe it as
"major". If there isn't one by lunchtime today, your success
statistics will stand at 0/3 = 0%. |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 2:59 am |
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On May 8, 10:53 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote:
They think it's all over!
It is now:
Quote: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
MAP 5.8 2008/05/12 11:11:02 31.249 103.693 10.0 EASTERN
SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP 5.1 2008/05/12 10:23:40 30.992 103.413 10.0 EASTERN
SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP 5.0 2008/05/12 09:52:13 47.347 -27.296 10.0 NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
MAP 5.5 2008/05/12 09:42:25 31.519 104.116 10.0 EASTERN
SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP 5.1 2008/05/12 09:07:01 31.255 103.788 10.0 EASTERN
SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP 5.0 2008/05/12 08:47:25 32.215 105.029 10.0 SICHUAN-
GANSU BORDER REGION, CHINA
MAP 5.2 2008/05/12 08:21:41 31.542 104.085 10.0 EASTERN
SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP 5.2 2008/05/12 08:10:59 31.225 103.574 10.0 EASTERN
SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP 5.4 2008/05/12 07:34:43 31.278 103.799 10.0 EASTERN
SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP 5.7 2008/05/12 06:54:18 31.155 103.826 10.0 EASTERN
SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP 6.0 2008/05/12 06:43:15 31.225 103.761 10.0 EASTERN
SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP 7.8 2008/05/12 06:28:01 31.104 103.270 10.0 EASTERN
SICHUAN, CHINA
Well actually the low is still there though slated to move to where it
is supposed to go by the end of this spell (From the 12th, this spell
is a 4 o'clock one.) But it's a MetO chart that is saying it's to go
to Scandinavia:
Quote: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html
Just imagine what we might accomplish in Britain if we had responsible
government and shot all the scientists.
Quote: http://groups.google.com/group/sci.geo.earthquakes/tree/browse_frm/thread/99f678abf575916b/86c6ed152172f584?rnum=1&q=12%3A18&_done=%2Fgroup%2Fsci.geo.earthquakes%2Fbrowse_frm%2Fthread%2F99f678abf575916b%2Fa6712bf3c25d8fa6%3Flnk%3Dgst%26q%3D12%253A18%26#doc_ec1af42507bbcb7c
That N Atlantic low is now over 1000 mb and sending a ridge out
towards Greenland. Could it actually do what I said it was going to do
all those yonks ago?
If so, watch out Xinjiang.
About the diameter of a cyclone out, something like North 80 West and
20 degrees away. What's that; 1200 nautical miles?
As you can see from the above the storms should have a cease and
desist but of course they are no more likely to listen to me than are
the sheep on Usenet.
The thing is we are back in a similar spell so cold weather could be
the norm. Hard to believe I know but that's what happened last
February. |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 3:20 am |
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On May 12, 1:59 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) gmail.com> wrote:
Quote:
Well actually the low is still there though slated to move to where it
is supposed to go by the end of this spell (From the 12th, this spell
is a 4 o'clock one.) But it's a MetO chart that is saying it's to go
to Scandinavia:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html
By T60 from Monday on this site:
Quote: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/surface_pressure.html
But it looks singularity unimpressive though things could change by
then. |
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| Dawlish... |
| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 7:59 pm |
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On May 12, 8:09 am, Dawlish <pjg... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On May 11, 11:23 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
On 11 May, 21:32, Harold Brooks <hebrook... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
In article <30a432ce-2306-46be-b385-ae23c6a4ff0a at (no spam)
24g2000hsh.googlegroups.com>, Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com says...
U. S. G E O L O G I C A L S U R V E Y
E A R T H Q U A K E D A T A B A S E
FILE CREATED: Fri May 9 10:00:11 2008
Global Search Earthquakes= 12
Catalog Used: NOAA
Date Range: Year: 1971 - 1971 Month: 01/Day: 01 Month: 12/
Day: 31
Magnitude Range: 7.0 - 10.0
Data Selection: Significant Earthquakes World Wide (NOAA)
Why would the NEIC be using a NOAA database if it were in error?
It's not so much in error as it is different. It goes back earlier in
time than the USGS data.
Thus making it a superior source of data for the years specified?
"Welcome to the World Data Center for Solid Earth Geophysics, Boulder.
The WDC for SEG is maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) in
Boulder, Colorado.
Data come from surface, aircraft and satellite platforms. See our list
of datasets held by the WDC for SEG."
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/wdc/
http://www.globalcmt.org/cgi-bin/globalcmt-cgi-bin/CMT3/form?itype=ym...
So I search for quakes of 7 M or more falling between 90 south and 90
north and whatever the full circle is east and west and every day from
January the first to December the thirty first inclusive and the
search misses half of them and it's my fault because I failed to read
the fine print?
I can't seem to find the details in your previous posts. A bit dense I
know, so what am I going to do?
Improve your reading comprehension. Go to the NEIC site that you
searched from and select "USGS/NEIC (PDE) 1973 - Present"
I don't think I'll find many earthquakes from 19~ 50, 51, 52, 60, 61,
62, 70 or 72 on that will I?- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
A 7.5+ earthquake in China.
You missed it by your predictions and I got it spot on with mine. You
predicted a 7.5 earthquake and missed it by a week. I predicted a 7.5
earthquake and got it spot on in the timescale I presented. The
difference? I understand the probabilities and how to use them far
better than you do. That's all we are talking about here. Not
harmonics, or resonance, or interactions of tectonics, atmosphere and
the pull of close celestial bodies, but movements of plates, very
probably completely independent of any of your theories, but
nevertheless presently unpredictable. Seismologists are always on the
watch for the unexpected, W and the unexpected has again happened;
pretty much a once a year earthquake magnitude, this one, completely
unspotted by your theories again, just like you missed Chaiten
erupting, but they are not contacting you for advice. That must be
galling for you, as it will be terribly galling for you when you wake
up and see the news this morning and find you have missed another
"major" event.
Now the Chinese authorities has the aftermath of a 7.5+ earthquake to
deal with in the run up to the olympics. it'll test them, but of
course, you believe they are just "commies" and as such have little
worth.
Still waiting for the "major" volcanic eruption. There has been an
eruption in Kamchatka, in Russia, but you could hardly describe it as
"major". If there isn't one by lunchtime today, your success
statistics will stand at 0/3 = 0%.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Ok, nothing; no major eruption. Your stats stand at 0/3, 0%, since
April 24th. That ignores the fact that your methods missed the 2 major
events in that time period; Chaiten erupting and the Sichuan
eathquake. How could your methods miss the biggest earthquake and the
biggest volcanic eruption of the year? Also those stats ignore this,
in your very first post on this 12.18 thread:
"5th to 12th May 12:18
Spells at twelve and 6 o'clock tend to produce low overcast even
misty
weather in Britain. Of course with a Cat 4 running elsewhere things
are going to be different for a while, perhaps we could knock 3
hours
off it?"
Haar is developing now on the East of Britain, but overcast?? The
period 5th - 12th was very sunny! You got the UK weather for the
period 5-12 May completely wrong too. The meteorologists didn't,
though the temps for the weekend were being underplayed at the start
of the period.
0/3 - and that's being generous. Taking this last one into
consideration, it could easily be 0/4....and you've missed the two
outstanding tectonic events of this period. Ziltch is not a great
success percentage, W. |
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| Weatherlawyer... |
| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 10:28 am |
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Prezzie for you:
There is an high leaving the United States at the moment over the
Carolinas/Florida:
Quote: http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html
This will produce a 6.5 I think at the Andrianof Islands chain
somewhere on this arc:
Quote: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/180_50.php
6 to 6.5 M. probably. And it will occur at something like 90 degrees
from where it hits the steep slope I believe. I don't know if rat
Island is more likely in that case but it's going to be in that area. |
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| Dawlish... |
| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 10:53 am |
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Guest
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On May 14, 9:28 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw... at (no spam) hotmail.com> wrote:
Time frame? |
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