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Vincent Brannigan...
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 4:36 pm
Guest
BradGuth wrote:
Quote:
On May 12, 7:13 am, Vincent Brannigan <fire... at (no spam) firelaw.us> wrote:
BradGuth wrote:

If you've got better science or better physics that explains why a
6400% inflation in fossil energy within 64 years is perfectly good to
go, then do share and share alike.
O , who can argue with that

Just a question

how do you "inflate" fossil energy ?

64 years ago was 1944.

For the USA inflation adjusted price of gasoline see

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2006_fcvt_fotw426....

$2.28 in 2005 dollars

Vince

What's the matter, isn't 6400% of fossil energy inflation in 64 years
quit good enough?


I can inflate balloons or prices or currency

But the laws of thermodynamics preclude inflating energy


Quote:
The automation and technology of delivering fossil energy has more
than cut their man-hours/barrel to something far less than 10% of what
it used to take.

Even coal gasification is nearly all automated, at perhaps not 1% of
the original man-hours/barrel in the 1940's (such as what Germany had
to cope with).

By this time next year we'll be at or above the 64:1 inflation mark of
such energy cost, and most of everything else catching up by
unavoidably following suit at perhaps as great as 32:1 per 64 year
span.

In the 1940's the fossil fuel consumption average per individual
wasn't hardly anything to speak of (in many developing nations it was
nothing) and even next to nothing in China, so it's not exactly a fair
example of true global inflation, because if we'd been using as much
fossil energy per individual back in the 1940's would only make this
energy inflation seem much greater.

Playing games with words or numbers isn't making life any better or
more affordable, but then what our faith-based puppet government does
best is to snooker and dumbfound as many of us village idiots as they
can muster.
. - Brad Guth
Vincent Brannigan...
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 4:43 pm
Guest
BradGuth wrote:
Quote:
On May 12, 7:13 am, Vincent Brannigan <fire... at (no spam) firelaw.us> wrote:
BradGuth wrote:

If you've got better science or better physics that explains why a
6400% inflation in fossil energy within 64 years is perfectly good to
go, then do share and share alike.
O , who can argue with that

Just a question

how do you "inflate" fossil energy ?

64 years ago was 1944.

For the USA inflation adjusted price of gasoline see

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2006_fcvt_fotw426....

$2.28 in 2005 dollars

Vince

If we all had the “USA inflation adjusted” income to go along with
your “USA inflation adjusted price of gasoline”, as such there
wouldn’t hardly any problem, whereas I too could manage to get by on
that USA inflation adjusted income of $10,000/month (same as $156.25/
mo as of 64 years ago).
. – Brad Guth


We have established that you can't read
now you prove that you cant multiply

the inflation correction for 156.25 in 1944 is $1,840.38 at the present
time

http://www.aier.org/research/cost-of-living-calculator/

Vincent M Brannigan

U of Maryland Consumer Economics Program
Assistant Prof 1977-83
Associate Prof 1983-1991
Professor 1991-92

have a nice day
Vincent Brannigan...
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 6:09 pm
Guest
BradGuth wrote:
Quote:
On May 12, 2:43 pm, Vincent Brannigan <fire... at (no spam) firelaw.us> wrote:
BradGuth wrote:
On May 12, 7:13 am, Vincent Brannigan <fire... at (no spam) firelaw.us> wrote:
BradGuth wrote:
If you've got better science or better physics that explains why a
6400% inflation in fossil energy within 64 years is perfectly good to
go, then do share and share alike.
O , who can argue with that
Just a question
how do you "inflate" fossil energy ?
64 years ago was 1944.
For the USA inflation adjusted price of gasoline see
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2006_fcvt_fotw426....
$2.28 in 2005 dollars
Vince
If we all had the “USA inflation adjusted” income to go along with
your “USA inflation adjusted price of gasoline”, as such there
wouldn’t hardly any problem, whereas I too could manage to get by on
that USA inflation adjusted income of $10,000/month (same as $156.25/
mo as of 64 years ago).
. – Brad Guth
We have established that you can't read
now you prove that you cant multiply

the inflation correction for 156.25 in 1944 is $1,840.38 at the present
time

http://www.aier.org/research/cost-of-living-calculator/

Vincent M Brannigan

U of Maryland Consumer Economics Program
Assistant Prof 1977-83
Associate Prof 1983-1991
Professor 1991-92

have a nice day

http://www2.census.gov/prod2/popscan/p60-003.pdf
“i n 1946 and resided in nonfarm areas was about $2,100 as compared
with $1,000 for women”

Divide that average income roughly in half for the typical nonwhite or
farm worker (this only applies to the nonfamily employed worker
because, the bulk of whatever the local/farm family member received
was paid via room and board).

Since I would have been much higher paid than average, by at least
twice that average of $175/month, makes my 1946 earnings worth $350/
month. Now multiply that by 64 = $22,400/month.

This is where you make your mistake

Read the cite

so far you fail the quiz

Quote:

Do you even know the meaning of _duh_?
. – Brad Guth

yes it is the typical response of students who are so limited in
background or cognitive ability that they cannot answer a question

Vince
Vincent Brannigan...
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 6:10 pm
Guest
BradGuth wrote:
Quote:
On May 12, 2:36 pm, Vincent Brannigan <fire... at (no spam) firelaw.us> wrote:
BradGuth wrote:
On May 12, 7:13 am, Vincent Brannigan <fire... at (no spam) firelaw.us> wrote:
BradGuth wrote:
If you've got better science or better physics that explains why a
6400% inflation in fossil energy within 64 years is perfectly good to
go, then do share and share alike.
O , who can argue with that
Just a question
how do you "inflate" fossil energy ?
64 years ago was 1944.
For the USA inflation adjusted price of gasoline see
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2006_fcvt_fotw426....
$2.28 in 2005 dollars
Vince
What's the matter, isn't 6400% of fossil energy inflation in 64 years
quit good enough?
I can inflate balloons or prices or currency

But the laws of thermodynamics preclude inflating energy



You know exactly what I'd meant. Proves who you really are, doesn't
it.
. - BG


I've told you who I am

I'm a real person

you are either a bot or a 4th grader


Vince
Totorkon...
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 3:25 pm
Guest
On May 13, 4:20 pm, Pat Flannery <flan... at (no spam) daktel.com> wrote:
Quote:
Pat Flannery wrote:

The downlink microwave transmitters don't have to move as the SOS
crosses the sky,

The downlink microwave transmitters don't have to move as the _SPS_
crosses the sky,
Building a SOS would be a Titanic undertaking. ;-)

Pat

The face of the SPS would always be orthagonal to the sun, it would
rotate 360 deg in 365.25 days. The transmitter would rotate 360 deg
every 24hrs. Still much simpler than the 'retargeting' every ten
miniutes or so that would be required in low orbit.
Totorkon...
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:03 pm
Guest
On May 13, 1:37 pm, Pat Flannery <flan... at (no spam) daktel.com> wrote:
Quote:
Totorkon wrote:

Your talking gauge wars.  Europe uses the standard 1435mm even with
its electric trains.  It would be a big step just to transfer cargos
from trucks to trains, which are four times as efficient.

I'm talking far larger trains than we are presently using running on far
wider tracks, real monsters with boxcars of around four times their
current capacity, with the other cars that have the ability to carry
around a couple of hundred passengers.
As fuel cost increase, simple economics may make this a necessary
development for moving freight...and as a alternative to air, bus, or
automobile transport to get people places over a long distance.

I used to daydream of a transcontinental rail system that could run

flatcars four times the area, 20x 100ft, that might carry factory
housing that would be carried the last 50 miles by airship. A
subdivision in a day. At 30mph it could transport motor homes and
cars, whose owners would stay in a rolling hotel, at an efficiency of
perhaps 500mpg per ton. Instead of going through tunnels it would
have a leveling bed and assistant engines for getting over mountains.
Quote:



In the case of SPS, kick that initial expense up via a order of
magnitude or three, and you realize the initial investment this is going
to require.
There's no easy way for us to get from where we are to that wonder world
in a incremental manner that a company or government could afford.
For starters, you need _huge_ SSTO vehicles - that no one knows how to
make yet - that can carry worthwhile payloads.
Figuring out how to build those (assuming they are even possible with
existing or near-term future technology) is going to eat up tens of
billions of dollars by the time they are done.

Just getting 'to orbit' rates down to a magical $1K/lb would be enough
to launch a thousand proposals and perhaps endear the public.  SSTO
isn't the way to go.

It's the simple way to go, and simplicity may pay off in the long run
over sophisticated two or more component vehicles.
The other possibility is a giant and cheap disposable booster.

I'm with Tsiolkovsky on this one. His rocket squadron was what today
would be called crossfeed or propellant transfer. It can be clunky
and cheap without bleeding edge technology.

Quote:
One advantage that would simplify things greatly is to build the SPS
satellites in LEO (far more benign than GEO as far as radiation goes,
and a lot easier to reach) then attach ion engines to them and let them

That's a given. There would certainly be a surplus of power on the
way to geo. Maybe an ion drive with an isp of 10000s could be
developed to do 5Gwatts justice.


Quote:
use their electrical generating capacity to slowly work themselves out
to their intended final orbit in GEO.
By turning the solar array full-on or edge-on to the sun as it orbits
during ascent into GEO, the array could also be used as a large solar sail..

(snip)



Still, if someday private enterprise could launch, construct and
operate a power satellite for profit, it would begin a new age and the
human prospect of survival for as long as the sun shines.

Don't forget the solar wind; that's going to degrade the solar arrays
over time, so that there will be maintenance needed.
There's another big downside here:
A company that could build the SPS constellation and owns its output can
hold the countries that use that energy over a barrel.
Either you pay what they want or your country goes into a electrical
blackout.

Pat- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I don't see why the present model would change. A utility pays a
contractor to build a power plant and takes ownership at completion.

We could begin today it electricity were $1.00/Kwh.
BradGuth...
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:21 pm
Guest
On May 13, 3:03 pm, Vincent Brannigan <fire... at (no spam) firelaw.us> wrote:
Quote:
BradGuth wrote:
On May 13, 11:56 am, Vincent Brannigan <fire... at (no spam) firelaw.us> wrote:
BradGuth wrote:
you simply cannot do math can you?
prices have not inflated by "64 times" in 64 years
When you get to 4th grade you will start doing decimals
Since 1944 the CPI conversion factor is 11.7784
from the cite ntoed above
Conversion Factor: 11.7784
Percent Change: 1,077.84
now run along and do your homework
Vince
I thought them fat Rothschilds did a way better job of educating their
brown-nosed minions. In your case, guess not.
. - Brad Guth
Your mommy is calling

go home

Vince

Pay anyone 64 times whatever take-home loot they were getting as of 64
years ago, and as such I bet they'll not bitch about having to pay $5/
gallon.
. - Brad Guth

as I said

study your homework

learn to do some libray work and you will stop saying such stupid things

Vince

As I and others with half a brain would say; start paying us 64 times
as much in take-home pay as 64 years ago and we’ll stop bitching about
the end-user cost of fossil fuel.

BTW, make that a retroactive scale, as a back-pay scale linked to the
retail+tax cost of fossil fuel. In that case you folks seriously owe
us big-time, especially if including interest.
. – Brad Guth
Pat Flannery...
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 5:26 pm
Guest
Andrew Robert Breen wrote:
Quote:

WTF would you be putting arrays outside 6-odd Earth radii geocentric distance?
Inside that, you're in the magnetosphere - that is, sheltered from the
solar wind, even at the sub-solar point in your orbit.


Huh? Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) is at 22,233 miles up.
You hit the inner Van Allen belt at a altitude of around 430 miles.
If you aren't going to have your workers getting fried by radiation,
that means you have to have the power satellites assembled below that
altitude.
You clear the outer Van Allen belt at around 6,200 miles up, but once
you are above that altitude you still have the radiation from solar
storms to contend with.
A SPS constellation in GEO kills two birds with one stone:
The downlink microwave transmitters don't have to move as the SOS
crosses the sky, and the receiver antennae on Earth's surface doesn't
have to be switching from one SPS to another as they rise above and fall
below the horizon (even that would be problematical for the big flat
receiver array that's generally proposed, as you want the SPS power beam
to hit it at a ninety-degree angle or close to it.)
The SPS constellation doesn't spend much time being eclipsed by the
Earth coming between it and the Sun, like at lower altitudes where
satellites go into Earth's shadow as they orbit - so power can be
generated and transmitted down pretty much 24/7 except near the spring
and fall equinoxes.

Pat
Andrew Robert Breen...
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 5:53 pm
Guest
In article <DNWdnS8LFu7iiLfVnZ2dnUVZ_jednZ2d at (no spam) posted.northdakotatelephone>,
Pat Flannery <flanner at (no spam) daktel.com> wrote:
Quote:


Andrew Robert Breen wrote:

WTF would you be putting arrays outside 6-odd Earth radii geocentric distance?
Inside that, you're in the magnetosphere - that is, sheltered from the
solar wind, even at the sub-solar point in your orbit.


Huh? Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) is at 22,233 miles up.

Yes..

Quote:
You hit the inner Van Allen belt at a altitude of around 430 miles.

... which isn't the solar wind. That's out beyond the magnetopause.

--
Andy Breen ~ Not speaking on behalf of the University of Wales, Aberystwyth
Feng Shui: an ancient oriental art for extracting
money from the gullible (Martin Sinclair)
Pat Flannery...
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 6:20 pm
Guest
Pat Flannery wrote:
Quote:

The downlink microwave transmitters don't have to move as the SOS
crosses the sky,


The downlink microwave transmitters don't have to move as the _SPS_
crosses the sky,
Building a SOS would be a Titanic undertaking. ;-)

Pat
Pat Flannery...
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 6:24 pm
Guest
Andrew Robert Breen wrote:
Quote:
You hit the inner Van Allen belt at a altitude of around 430 miles.


.. which isn't the solar wind. That's out beyond the magnetopause.


The belt's radiation is caused by the solar wind hitting the Earth's
magnetosphere; no solar wind = no radiation in the Earth's magnetosphere.

Pat

Pat
Vincent Brannigan...
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:12 pm
Guest
BradGuth wrote:
Quote:
On May 13, 3:03 pm, Vincent Brannigan <fire... at (no spam) firelaw.us> wrote:
BradGuth wrote:
On May 13, 11:56 am, Vincent Brannigan <fire... at (no spam) firelaw.us> wrote:
BradGuth wrote:
you simply cannot do math can you?
prices have not inflated by "64 times" in 64 years
When you get to 4th grade you will start doing decimals
Since 1944 the CPI conversion factor is 11.7784
from the cite ntoed above
Conversion Factor: 11.7784
Percent Change: 1,077.84
now run along and do your homework
Vince
I thought them fat Rothschilds did a way better job of educating their
brown-nosed minions. In your case, guess not.
. - Brad Guth
Your mommy is calling
go home
Vince
Pay anyone 64 times whatever take-home loot they were getting as of 64
years ago, and as such I bet they'll not bitch about having to pay $5/
gallon.
. - Brad Guth
as I said

study your homework

learn to do some libray work and you will stop saying such stupid things

Vince

As I and others with half a brain would say; start paying us 64 times
as much in take-home pay as 64 years ago and we’ll stop bitching about
the end-user cost of fossil fuel.

BTW, make that a retroactive scale, as a back-pay scale linked to the
retail+tax cost of fossil fuel. In that case you folks seriously owe
us big-time, especially if including interest.
. – Brad Guth


When you get to junior High they will explain it to you
your 64 times is from a comic book
Mommy is calling

Vince
BradGuth...
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 2:45 pm
Guest
You really like to repost everything, don't you.

Too much for my valuable time to fool with, especially since you're
clearly one of THEM naysayers in denial of your denial, possibly from
the planet Denial..
.. - Brad Guth
Totorkon...
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 4:15 pm
Guest
On May 14, 5:58 pm, Whata Fool <wh... at (no spam) fool.ami> wrote:
Quote:
Totorkon <aertr... at (no spam) gmail.com>  wrote:
On May 13, 4:20?pm, Pat Flannery <flan... at (no spam) daktel.com> wrote:
Pat Flannery wrote:

The downlink microwave transmitters don't have to move as the SOS
crosses the sky,

The downlink microwave transmitters don't have to move as the _SPS_
crosses the sky,
Building a SOS would be a Titanic undertaking. ;-)

Pat

The face of the SPS would always be orthagonal to the sun, it would
rotate 360 deg in 365.25 days.  The transmitter would rotate 360 deg
every 24hrs.  Still much simpler than the 'retargeting' every ten
miniutes or so that would be required in low orbit.

        How about taking this thread to a science fiction newsgroup,
there isn't enough money in the whole world to put up 500 megawatt
system at 22,300 miles.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

If the shuttle were considered part of the payload, the program has
already delivered more than 10000 tons to orbit, the lower mass
estimate for a 5Gw SPS.

At $2000/Kg to leo, that mass could be delivered for $20B, a fifth the
price of the electricity it would generate over a 20yr lifetime.

Reducing the weight of solar arrays and the cost of launch should be
the primary goals of NASA. Power a new age of lunar and
interplanetary exploration with the sun and power satellites won't be
just sf anymore.
jonathan...
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 7:16 pm
Guest
"Pat Flannery" <flanner at (no spam) daktel.com> wrote in message
news:0d-dnTJy-rQ6ebrVnZ2dnUVZ_siknZ2d at (no spam) northdakotatelephone...
Quote:


Are we going to do this?
No, of course not.



It isn't the difficulty or expense of a project that is important.
You have to think outside the box here. For instance, if we
had in advance of starting a project all the solutions, costs
and benefits and so on, so that we can make an informed
judgement about proceeding. Ya know what results???

A nice litle business investment, or in short.....NOTHING MUCH.

To truly accomplish something great, something that
changes the world, the project must be of such scope
and ambition that the final products are completely unknowable
in advance. This is an evolutionary approach to creating.

We must set NOT out to build some new system.
We must decide to fix some grand problem.
Whatever the cost.

And let the program go where it will, let the solutions emerge
from the dedication and excitement a world-changing project
inspires.

The secret to success is in thinking big, not in bean counting
ahead of time.

We MUST HAVE FAITH....in science that we may not
have any idea now how to fix this, but if we decide to
take the challenge we WILL find the best answers.
We WILL fix it one way or another.

When I spout about SSP, I could care less is we ever
build one of the damn things. Cause I know once the
project sets sail, the best solution might end up being
something entirely different. What matters is that the
project and determination begin, as whatever solution
finally emerges WILL BE GOOD. As a self organized
system will always settle on the best practical solution.

Once the self organized system has been initated that is....

Natural creations define the optimum, natural processes
must be mimicked, and the result will be wonderful.

We CAN'T worry about the details now. We must worry
about creating a concensus to FIX global warming and
our future energy needs with a single massive project
involving any and all national resources needed.

A national project, just like the first moon landing.

No one knew exactly how we would get to the moon.
They figured it out ...after...the committment was made
to accomplish X by date Y.

What is important is to build a project that inspires as many
as possible, which means fixing a problem that effects
as many as possible.

An optimized goal...nothing less than saving the world...
can't fail to inspire to such an extent it will self organize
....take on a life of its own and converge as quickly as
practical on the best possible solution.

Energy and warming effects EVERYONE. A solution
benefits EVERYONE. EVERYONE will support such
a program, if it's presented properly. EVERYONE
can immediately imagine the sweeping benefits from
solving the problem of clean long term energy needs.

I only use SSP because solar power and space provide
the widest possible domain for a potential solution.
Combining the largest possibility space for a goal
.....saving the world....with the largest possibility
space for a solution is the path to success.

Start the process in motion, and let the process provide
the answers along the way.

The truth of our reality is that if enough people want something
bad enough...it'll become reality. No matter how difficult
or expensive.


Quote:
The initial investment would be too high -


For our future, the cost of doing nothing is much higher.

Only America is in a political and economic position to take
on such a grand goal. If not us who? If not now when?

There's another reason why I prattle on about China and
the Olympics. The world is going to get a good glimpse
of the future and a shock if we do nothing when we see
them carrying athletes off in ambulances from the
....thick... Beijing air. Even with China banning autos
and closing down every plant it can during the Olympics
if the wind is blowing in the wrong direction, it'll be
shocking to see the level of pollution.

The world is already at a concensus on the problem of
global warning. I beleive the Olympics games will be
the last straw, where we stop arguing about it and
start...doing something about it.


If enough want it badly enough, these games could be
historic turning points for freedom, democracy and
the future health and prosperity of the planet.

All that is there for the taking....if we want it bad enough.

If enough stand up and demand that we want such a future
.....free, prosperous and sustainable....it can happen.

We simply need the ENTIRE world to be consider these
problems at the SAME place and time, and make their
opinions known in real time.

These Olympics provide such a forum like no other in
history. The entire world will be watching, and the
subjects of dictatorships, freedom and global
warming/energy will be front and center throughout
the games.

To let such an opportunity slip through our fingers
would be a crime no human is capable of judging.

And we don't have to do a damn thing except
talk about it and demand it....want it.

"Reality is what we make of it"


Jonathan


s
 
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