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Science Forum Index » Geology - Earthquakes Forum » 10:25
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| Weatherlawyer |
 Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 4:28 am |
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Another set of twin cyclones.:
Qhttp://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm
I wonder what is going on. Is it a more common phenomenon than
previously realised or is there a glitch in the apparatus?
"The Dvorak technique (developed in 1974 by Vernon Dvorak) is a widely
used system to subjectively estimate tropical cyclone intensity based
solely on visible and infrared satellite images.
Several agencies issue Dvorak intensity numbers for cyclones of
sufficient intensity. These include the National Hurricane Center's
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the NOAA/NESDIS
Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at
the Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center in Pearl Harbor,
Hawaii, and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA).
In a developing cyclone, the technique takes advantage of the fact
that cyclones of similar intensity tend to have certain characteristic
features, and as they strengthen, they tend to change in appearance in
a predictable manner.
The structure and organization of the tropical cyclone are tracked
over 24 hours to determine if the storm has weakened, maintained its
intensity, or strengthened. Various central cloud and banding features
are compared with templates that show typical storm patterns and their
associated intensity.
If infrared satellite imagery is available for a cyclone with a
visible eye pattern, then the technique utilizes the difference
between the temperature of the warm eye and the surrounding cold cloud
tops to determine intensity (colder cloud tops generally indicate a
more intense storm).
In each case a "T-number" and a Current Intensity (CI) value are
assigned to the storm. These measurements range between 1 (minimum
intensity) and 8 (maximum intensity). The T-number and CI value are
the same except for weakening storms, in which case the CI is higher.
the list shows:
the Dvorak Number, wind speed in Knots; Pressure Millibars and the two
different ocean basins considered: the Atlantic and the North West
Pacific.
1.0 25 ---- ----
2.0 30 1009 1000
2.5 35 1005 997
3.0 45 1000 991
3.5 55 994 984
4.0 65 987 976
4.5 77 979 966
5.0 90 970 954
5.5 102 960 941
6.0 115 948 927
6.5 127 935 914
7.0 140 921 898
7.5 155 906 879
8.0 170 890 858
The National Hurricane Center will often quote Dvorak T-numbers e.g.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT.
The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
at the University of Wisconsin-Madison has developed the Objective
Dvorak Technique (ODT). This is a modified version of the Dvorak
technique which uses computer algorithms rather than subjective human
interpretation to arrive at a CI number. This is generally not
implemented for tropical depressions or weak tropical storms."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_techniqu" |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:28 am |
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The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens at 08:32. on May 18, was was
preceded by a two-month series of earthquakes and steam-venting
episodes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_eruption_of_Mount_St._Helens
17 Jan 21:19
24 Jan 13:58
1 Feb 02:21
9 Feb 07:35
16 Feb 08:51
23 Feb 00:14
1 Mar 21:00
9 Mar 23:49
16 Mar 18:56
23 Mar 12:31
31 Mar 15:14
8 Apr 12:06
15 Apr 03:46
22 Apr 02:59
30 Apr 07:35
7 May 20:51
14 May 12:00
21 May 19:16
29 May 21:28
6 Jun 02:53
12 Jun 20:38
20 Jun 12:32
28 Jun 09:02
5 Jul 07:27
12 Jul 06:46
20 Jul 05:51
27 Jul 18:54
3 Aug 12:00
10 Aug 19:09
18 Aug 22:28
26 Aug 03:42
1 Sep 18:08
9 Sep 10:00
17 Sep 13:54
24 Sep 12:08
1 Oct 03:18
9 Oct 02:50
17 Oct 03:47
23 Oct 20:52
30 Oct 16:33
7 Nov 20:43
15 Nov 15:47
22 Nov 06:39
29 Nov 09:59
7 Dec 14:35
15 Dec 01:47
21 Dec 18:08
29 Dec 06:32
The crucial dates are the two phases prior to the eruption on the 18th
May and the phase that broke the spell
May 7 20:51 May 14 12 May 21 19:16.
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases1901.html
The importance of which are that they reflect a certain similarity to
recent dates and more importantly, times.
I included the whole set of dates and times so that anyone interested
enough can make more comparisons. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:48 pm |
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It looks like the Andreanof Islands are kicking off again. Still
nothing over 4.9 M. in two days and more.
I suspect that the large high on the North American eastern seaboard
will bleed slowly into the Atlantic via Cape Hatteras and the south
eastern States rather than the Davis Strait, thus leaving the strait
open for that low to the south of Greenland to pass through.
It beats the hell out of me why I am the only person on god's earth
who can see that these highs and lows are interference patterns, the
product of acoustic pressures we are yet to examine.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif
What the hell else could they be?
If it were anything the like of what Cleveland Abbe "The Weather Man",
surmised all those years ago, the two pressure areas described above
would interact with each other directly. Would they not?
I hope the one true god sees fit to provide gifts in men in the coming
generations. I'd tear the present load of tossers new arse-holes for
the good it would do scientific enquiry.
What they believe beggars belief. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 2:06 pm |
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On Apr 22, 8:28 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote:
The crucial dates are the two phases prior to the eruption on the 18th
May and the phase that broke the spell
May 7 20:51 May 14 12 May 21 19:16.
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases1901.html
The importance of which are that they reflect a certain similarity to
recent dates and more importantly, times.
I included the whole set of dates and times so that anyone interested
enough can make more comparisons.
A pointless exercise given that there is conclusive argument to adjust
the times of these phases for storms. I dare say there are well
documented records of all tropical cyclones for 1980, it's just that
methods are so much different in this century.
Bloody hell! It was nearly 30 years ago. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 2:12 pm |
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On Apr 23, 12:48 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: It looks like the Andreanof Islands are kicking off again. Still
nothing over 4.9 M. in two days and more.
I suspect that the large high on the North American eastern seaboard
will bleed slowly into the Atlantic via Cape Hatteras and the south
eastern States rather than the Davis Strait, thus leaving the strait
open for that low to the south of Greenland to pass through.
It beats the hell out of me why I am the only person on god's earth
who can see that these highs and lows are interference patterns, the
product of acoustic pressures we are yet to examine.http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif
What the hell else could they be?
If it were anything the like of what Cleveland Abbe "The Weather Man",
surmised all those years ago, the two pressure areas described above
would interact with each other directly. Would they not?
I hope the one true god sees fit to provide gifts in men in the coming
generations. I'd tear the present load of tossers new arse-holes for
the good it would do scientific enquiry.
What they believe beggars belief.
Close but no cigar:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/MediaAlerts/2008/2008041726580.html |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:56 pm |
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5.2 M. 2008/04/2301:27:17 33.552 141.021 off the east coast of Honshu,
Japan.
5.2 M. 2008/04/2300:00:48 -25.713 -45.438 south Atlantic Ocean.
5.5 M. 2008/04/2105:33:37 -7.093 129.774 Kepulauan Babar, Indonesia. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 8:27 am |
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On Apr 23, 5:56 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: 5.2 M. 2008/04/2301:27:17 33.552 141.021 off the east coast of Honshu,
Japan.
5.2 M. 2008/04/2300:00:48 -25.713 -45.438 south Atlantic Ocean.
5.5 M. 2008/04/2105:33:37 -7.093 129.774 Kepulauan Babar, Indonesia.
Don't give up on me too soon. Watch this space > until Friday/Saturday
and we should see something interesting.
Quote: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/cgi-bin/efs_loop.cgi?strt=0&incr=12&st...)
is showing a nice camber hitting it off in some 60 hours -2 1/2 days
time?
Or is that 60 hours from midnight?
96 to 108 on this one: >http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://
www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+00,bracknell+24,bracknell
+36,bracknell+48,bracknell+60,bracknell+72,bracknell+84,bracknell
+96,bracknell+108,bracknell+120,bracknell+132
4 days?
We should be seeing at least one 7.5 or so for the end of the week and
maybe another in the middle of the next spell. Something of the sort
of chain that took place with the event at Xinchiang:
Quote: http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90882/6391341.html
Best I can do at the moment. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:15 pm |
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On Apr 23, 7:27 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On Apr 23, 5:56 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
5.2 M. 2008/04/2301:27:17 33.552 141.021 off the east coast of Honshu,
Japan.
5.2 M. 2008/04/2300:00:48 -25.713 -45.438 south Atlantic Ocean.
5.5 M. 2008/04/2105:33:37 -7.093 129.774 Kepulauan Babar, Indonesia.
Don't give up on me too soon. Watch this space > until Friday/Saturday
and we should see something interesting.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/cgi-bin/efs_loop.cgi?strt=0&incr=12&st...)
is showing a nice camber hitting it off in some 60 hours -2 1/2 days
time?
Or is that 60 hours from midnight?
96 to 108 on this one: >http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://
www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+00,bracknell+24,bracknell
+36,bracknell+48,bracknell+60,bracknell+72,bracknell+84,bracknell
+96,bracknell+108,bracknell+120,bracknell+132
4 days?
We should be seeing at least one 7.5 or so for the end of the week and
maybe another in the middle of the next spell. Something of the sort
of chain that took place with the event at Xinchiang:
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90882/6391341.html
OK, now the storms should stop (what little they were.)
5.1 M. 2008/04/23 22:04. 22.9 N. 121.7 E. Taiwan Region.
5.8 M. 2008/04/23 18:28. 22.9 N. 121.7 E. Taiwan Region.
Quote: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
And we can get on with the next part of the spell. The next "phase",
as it were.
Pity I have forgotten what that is. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 2:08 pm |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 2:46 pm |
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On Apr 24, 12:15 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On Apr 23, 7:27 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Apr 23, 5:56 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
5.2 M. 2008/04/2301:27:17 33.552 141.021 off the east coast of Honshu,
Japan.
5.2 M. 2008/04/2300:00:48 -25.713 -45.438 south Atlantic Ocean.
5.5 M. 2008/04/2105:33:37 -7.093 129.774 Kepulauan Babar, Indonesia.
Don't give up on me too soon. Watch this space > until Friday/Saturday
and we should see something interesting.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/cgi-bin/efs_loop.cgi?strt=0&incr=12&st...)
is showing a nice camber hitting it off in some 60 hours -2 1/2 days
time?
Or is that 60 hours from midnight?
96 to 108 on this one: >http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://
www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+00,bracknell+24,bracknell
+36,bracknell+48,bracknell+60,bracknell+72,bracknell+84,bracknell
+96,bracknell+108,bracknell+120,bracknell+132
4 days?
We should be seeing at least one 7.5 or so for the end of the week and
maybe another in the middle of the next spell. Something of the sort
of chain that took place with the event at Xinchiang:
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90882/6391341.html
OK, now the storms should stop (what little they were.)
5.1 M. 2008/04/23 22:04. 22.9 N. 121.7 E. Taiwan Region.
5.8 M. 2008/04/23 18:28. 22.9 N. 121.7 E. Taiwan Region.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
And we can get on with the next part of the spell. The next "phase",
as it were.
Pity I have forgotten what that is.
I left this out f the equations too:
CVGHM reported that seismicity from Anak Krakatau increased during
14-21 April; the number of events per day peaked on 20 April. Ash
plumes accompanied by propelled incandescent rocks were noted during
field observations on 16, 17, and 18 April.
The eruption affected the summit and the E and S flanks. Booming
noises were reported and occasionally heard at an observation post 42
km away. The Alert Level was raised to 3 (on a scale of 1-4) on 21
April.
CVGHM reported that seismicity from Ibu increased during 6-14 April
and remained elevated during 15-20 April. Plumes described as
"eruption smoke" rose to altitude of 1.8-2.1 km (5,900-6,900 ft)
a.s.l. during 12-21 April and were gray during 18-21 April.
The Alert Level was increased to 3 (on a scale of 1-4) on 21 April.
Residents and tourists were not permitted within 2 km of the crater.
>http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/index.cfm?wvarweek=20080416#krakatau |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 3:17 pm |
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On Apr 24, 1:46 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote:
We should be seeing at least one 7.5 or so for the end of the week and
maybe another in the middle of the next spell. Something of the sort
of chain that took place with the event at Xinchiang:
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90882/6391341.html
OK, now the storms should stop (what little they were.)
5.1 M. 2008/04/23 22:04. 22.9 N. 121.7 E. Taiwan Region.
5.8 M. 2008/04/23 18:28. 22.9 N. 121.7 E. Taiwan Region.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
And we can get on with the next part of the spell. The next "phase",
as it were.
Pity I have forgotten what that is.
I left this out f the equations too:
CVGHM reported that seismicity from Anak Krakatau increased during
14-21 April; the number of events per day peaked on 20 April. Ash
plumes accompanied by propelled incandescent rocks were noted during
field observations on 16, 17, and 18 April.
The eruption affected the summit and the E and S flanks. Booming
noises were reported and occasionally heard at an observation post 42
km away. The Alert Level was raised to 3 (on a scale of 1-4) on 21
April.
CVGHM reported that seismicity from Ibu increased during 6-14 April
and remained elevated during 15-20 April. Plumes described as
"eruption smoke" rose to altitude of 1.8-2.1 km (5,900-6,900 ft)
a.s.l. during 12-21 April and were gray during 18-21 April.
The Alert Level was increased to 3 (on a scale of 1-4) on 21 April.
Residents and tourists were not permitted within 2 km of the crater.
http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/index.cfm?wvarweek=20080416#kr...
Which as it happens is something like 45 degrees from the Xinjiang
region. What was it that was 45 degrees from somewhere interesting
last time?
Unfortunately I need a pedant to follow in my footsteps. I just can't
keep track of things. Pity I can't stand the buggers. They might make
excellent meteorologists and astronomers but they spoil any science
they are given charge of. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 3:59 am |
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Here come the mice again
Curving around Iceland like a memory
Rinning to earth like hell in motion
I want to walk in the open ground
I want to talk about earthquakes too
I want to dive into the ocean
Is it raining with you
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+00,bracknell+24,bracknell+36,bracknell+48,bracknell+60,bracknell+72,bracknell+84,bracknell+96,bracknell+108,bracknell+120,bracknell+132 |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 1:48 am |
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In the North Atlantic the low that has dogged the top left hand corner
for the last few days has stated to... not so much move east as is the
norm but to extend east.
It has actually extended as far as Scandinavia where there is an
Asiatic High coming the other way. It reaches half way up Greenland
where an High stretching from over most of North America to past the
North Pole, meets it.
It is quite a serious build up of events. If it were a balloon people,
near it might well be looking pensive. But as with such explosions
those inside the pressure area are the least affected.
So where will the earthquake be?
From Earthquake.itgo.com:
PREDICTION Dt. 23rd April '08
Good sunshine day.
Suspect around 6 to 7+M quakes over
KERMAN, IRAN (28.33N 56.33E) - NORTH -CENTRAL IRAN (30.7N 50.5E)
MID-INDIAN RIDGE (15.1S 67.9E) - MINAHASSA PENINSULA( 0.1N 123.4E)
and around 5 to 6M quakes over
IRIAN JAYA REGION (3.7S 131.1E) - BANDA SEA (6.0S 130.0E)
may occur within next 48 to 380 hours from 04.30 UTC on 22nd April
2008.
http://earthquake.itgo.com/today.htm
I have always found that this man's errors are more likely due to the
event being a storm rather than an earthquake. Since he doesn't take
account of storms in his data, it is only fair that he counts his
errors as failures. So consider that when you look at his posted
results.
Note, I am not saying that the window is the same as it can not be
with the length of storm duration being substantially different.
No more is the location to be considered the same.
It will be within geometric parameters yet to be set. Something like
90 or 120 degrees different depending on the category of the storm
IIRC.
Without looking more closely it appears that the result will be on the
1012 mb surface level pressure line.
Exactly in the pressure wave path of any exploding Highs and imploding
Lows.
I doubt anyone has ever given a less rational qack-cast than that but
damnitalltohell! what a doozie if I am right.
Point to note:
These regions are places of light winds, and with no wind sheer you
tend to get large thunder cells building maybe even tornadoes.
Lack of wind sheer is also a factor in tropical storms. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 9:24 am |
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There is a number of quakes or tremors over in the Andreanof Isles
once again. Looks like plenty of Aitches dropping off the continent. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 6:03 pm |
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On Apr 25, 8:24 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: There is a number of quakes or tremors over in the Andreanof Isles
once again. Looks like plenty of Aitches dropping off the continent.
Shoot lost the thread. Damned Google!
Out vast spot.
Here we go with another storm:
5.1 2008/04/25 18:22. 16.1 S. 175.0 W. Tonga.
I was looking at it yesterday and thought "Storm" but it was too early
to say.
Or maybe it is that things are about to go pear shaped. In which case
the biggie is definitely on for today or tomorrow. |
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