$114/bbl and It's Getting Ugly Out There

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sno

Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 7:33 pm

Guest

Dan wrote:

Quote:

sno wrote:

EskWIRED@spamblock.panix.com wrote:
In misc.survivalism hhc314@yahoo.com wrote:

Fifty years ago I was taught that the prices of a commodity in a
normal market is determined by the intersection of the supply and
demand curves, without other constraints being imposed.
[snip]

Since the 1950s, inflation has resulted in the devaluaton of the
dollar now over 90%. What was a dollar in the 1950s is now only about
9-cents by my simple calculations. The Arab oil merchants are not
responsible for this, only Americans are to blame.
Ummm....so which is it? Supply/demand, or inflation?

If the latter, in which currency are oil prices stable?

Oil prices are stable in relation to gold....20 yrs ago oil was
in 20/30 dollar range....gold 250/350 range....today oil 100
...gold 1000......still about 10 to one....

Gold is a reference metal....what traditionally you compare the
value (not price) of something to......one of the reasons
is that gold supply/demand stays relatively constant,
therefore its value stays the same.....

In the early seventies countries agreed...??....to use the dollar
as a reference.....however since then the amount of dollars that
have been printed have exceeded the needed/demand amount...
the value of the dollar has decreased (called monetary inflation)
...which in turn is leading to the price.....in dollars....of
commodities to increase....

There are other things that are causing to a lesser amount the
price of commodities to increase...demand growth in china and
india for example...but the major increase is from monetary
inflation.....anyone who believes the government published
inflation figures has someone else paying for what they live
on....most estimates say the true figure is over 10 percent
per year.....

By reporting a lower inflation rate then really exists the
government kept inflation to a lower level then it would have
been....a lot of government retirements and such are tied to
the reported inflation rate....by keeping it low the government
did not have to increase the money supply as much as it would
have otherwise......also it is hard to ask for a pay raise higher
then the reported rate of inflation keeping wage inflation down....

Using this and other tricks the government has hidden the
lower value of the dollar and what we are seeing is the
"catch up"....of its value.....

thank you for listening to my thoughts....have fun....sno

Oh, deity of choice, not another gold bug...

Dan

Nope...just realize that to enhance commerce some stuff has to
be used as a reference point....really doesn't matter what the
stuff is....the metals have proven to be a very good reference stuff
over the years for a number of reasons...because the supply/demand
stays stable....because the amount above ground does not increase/
decrease very fast...because once they are above ground they tend
to remain there...etc.....

Historically using paper money....or other stuff as a reference
has not worked very well....is reason gold and other metals
became the preferred referenced stuff....when countries agreed
to stop using gold as a reference as it was felt that through the
use of computers and our understanding of economics that something
like the dollar as a reference would be better.....

The dollar has worked fairly well since the 70's as a reference....
would the metals have worked better...???...do not know...there
are a lot of opinions on that.....it is beginning to look as
if people are deciding they do not want the dollar as a reference
because our government has printed to much of it....more then
there is demand.....and government has hidden this fact for a
number of years.....maybe should be governments...as just about
every country has had a part in it....I do not see myself as
a gold bug...but do see that a lot of people do not realize
what is going on....that the dollar is not being accepted as
a reference any more.....and its value is playing catch up...
inflation.....

have fun.....sno

--
No matter how dangerous nuclear power may or
may not be.....
Is it any more dangerous then what we are doing
now.....???

This tag line is generated by:
SLNG (Silly Little Nuclear Generator)

P. Maffia

Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 7:40 pm

Guest

"sno" <sno@opelc.com> wrote in message news:480E83D8.1E5301C8@opelc.com...

Quote:

it is beginning to look as
if people are deciding they do not want the dollar as a reference
because our government has printed to much of it....more then
there is demand.....and government has hidden this fact for a
number of years....

What utter nonsense! Nothing has been hidden, the damn figures are published
weekly, daily, in fact.

sno

Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 7:54 pm

Guest

"P. Maffia" wrote:

Quote:

"sno" <sno@opelc.com> wrote in message news:480E83D8.1E5301C8@opelc.com...
it is beginning to look as
if people are deciding they do not want the dollar as a reference
because our government has printed to much of it....more then
there is demand.....and government has hidden this fact for a
number of years....

What utter nonsense! Nothing has been hidden, the damn figures are published
weekly, daily, in fact.

And you believe them....???....if you have any check book software
with a history over the past 10 yrs or so....run a check and see
how much it costs you to live over what it did then.....and then
figure out the inflation rate.....

Or...if you do not...check with your mother about how much it
cost her to live....when she was your age....

have fun.....sno

--
No matter how dangerous nuclear power may or
may not be.....
Is it any more dangerous then what we are doing
now.....???

This tag line is generated by:
SLNG (Silly Little Nuclear Generator)

sno

Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:26 pm

Guest

sno wrote:

Quote:

"P. Maffia" wrote:

"sno" <sno@opelc.com> wrote in message news:480E83D8.1E5301C8@opelc.com...
it is beginning to look as
if people are deciding they do not want the dollar as a reference
because our government has printed to much of it....more then
there is demand.....and government has hidden this fact for a
number of years....

What utter nonsense! Nothing has been hidden, the damn figures are published
weekly, daily, in fact.

And you believe them....???....if you have any check book software
with a history over the past 10 yrs or so....run a check and see
how much it costs you to live over what it did then.....and then
figure out the inflation rate.....

Or...if you do not...check with your mother about how much it
cost her to live....when she was your age....

Another way to see it....

Article talking about how inflation figures were changed to hide
true figures....

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=59409

Graph showing figures reported by government and figures without
"tricks"....

see "annual consumer inflation"....about half way down page....

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

have fun......sno

Dan

Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:45 pm

Guest

sno wrote:

Quote:

"P. Maffia" wrote:
"sno" <sno@opelc.com> wrote in message news:480E83D8.1E5301C8@opelc.com...
it is beginning to look as
if people are deciding they do not want the dollar as a reference
because our government has printed to much of it....more then
there is demand.....and government has hidden this fact for a
number of years....
What utter nonsense! Nothing has been hidden, the damn figures are published
weekly, daily, in fact.

And you believe them....???....if you have any check book software
with a history over the past 10 yrs or so....run a check and see
how much it costs you to live over what it did then.....and then
figure out the inflation rate.....

Or...if you do not...check with your mother about how much it
cost her to live....when she was your age....

have fun.....sno

Quick, at 3% inflation, how long does it take for prices to double. No
calculators or pencils allowed, mental math only. (Nearest whole year)

Now, quickly, 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%.

Gas prices have gone up ~16x in the last 60 years. What is the average
rate of increase.

Dan

sno

Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:58 pm

Guest

EskWIRED@spamblock.panix.com wrote:

Quote:

In misc.survivalism sno <sno@opelc.com> wrote:

Oil prices are stable in relation to gold....20 yrs ago oil was
in 20/30 dollar range....gold 250/350 range....today oil 100
...gold 1000......still about 10 to one....

Why are oil and gold moving in opposite directions lately?

Oil has been going through the roof, but gold has plummeted over 10% in
the last 6 weeks. Gold is around $900, and oil is around $120. The ratio
is now around 7.5:1 and widening.

Some people suspect that the government has been messing with the
gold market for years....it seems funny that when gold starts to
really go up it gets knocked down....(this is easy to do by
someone going into the "paper gold" (futures) market and
buying or selling gold there)....this will cause a distortion
in the gold value....same thing happens in all the commodity
markets....is reason that commodities can move so quickly.....

It is maybe not government but just investors moving same way at
same time.....the people who say is government in gold market
have some pretty good looking proof....and government has some
pretty good reasons for interfering....(part of hiding inflation)

I suspect the "catch up" is not over yet....and gold, oil, food
etc....has at least another double to go.....government will
try to control how fast it happens....people become used to slow
change....if it is to quick everyone screams....

have fun.....sno

--
No matter how dangerous nuclear power may or
may not be.....
Is it any more dangerous then what we are doing
now.....???

This tag line is generated by:
SLNG (Silly Little Nuclear Generator)

strabo

Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:34 pm

Guest

P. Maffia wrote:

Quote:

Sure, published just like the Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports.

BTW, what is the current relationship of M1, M2 and M3?

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strabo

Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:39 pm

Guest

EskWIRED@spamblock.panix.com wrote:

Quote:

Gold and silver have been kept artificially low for 15 years.
The Plunge Protection Team works around the clock.

But you should know this.

Given your continuing ignorance in spite of all the data and
explanations given you in recent months, I'm beginning to think that
you're a phony.

Quote:

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sno

Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:45 pm

Guest

strabo wrote:

Quote:

P. Maffia wrote:

"sno" <sno@opelc.com> wrote in message news:480E83D8.1E5301C8@opelc.com...
it is beginning to look as
if people are deciding they do not want the dollar as a reference
because our government has printed to much of it....more then
there is demand.....and government has hidden this fact for a
number of years....

What utter nonsense! Nothing has been hidden, the damn figures are
published weekly, daily, in fact.

Sure, published just like the Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports.

BTW, what is the current relationship of M1, M2 and M3?

They have stopped publishing m3 (m3 is the total money in
circulation of all kinds).....claimed that it cost to much
money to figure it out (when has the government ever tried
to save money ....<grin>).....anyway it is suspected that
they stopped publishing it because they did not want anyone
knowing how much money they were putting into circulation....

(if supply of stuff more then there is a demand for, its
value goes down).....dollar is stuff....more dollars =
more monetary inflation

here are graphs for all three of them....with estimate of
m3 since they stopped publishing....is now up to increase
of close to 18 percent per year....

top graph...

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

thank you for listening to my thoughts...have fun.....sno

--
No matter how dangerous nuclear power may or
may not be.....
Is it any more dangerous then what we are doing
now.....???

This tag line is generated by:
SLNG (Silly Little Nuclear Generator)

Guest

Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 5:23 am

In misc.survivalism sno <sno@opelc.com> wrote:

Quote:

.....if people world over do not
have faith that a dollar stuck in a drawer over a long period of
time will have the same value when it is taken out years later

Then they are realistic, and have faith that money needs to be invested
properly in order to retain its value.

Quote:

(supply/demand for the dollar had not changed over the years)
then they will not accept it as reference.....

A little while ago, you claimed that only commodities like gold keep a par
value with respect to other commodities, like oil. So you claimed that NO
currency meets your test of no inflation/deflation.

So what the heck - if you believe wat you said beore, then there exists no
other currency that can be accepted as a reference.

So what are you worried about?

--
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so
certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.
-- Bertrand Russel

Paul Thomas, CPA

Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:59 am

Guest

"sno" <sno@opelc.com> wrote

Quote:

the dollar is not being accepted as a reference any more

Except that if you were to take your gold nuggets into a 7-11 to pay for
that tank of gas, you'd either be laughed at till you paid in dollars, or
they'd call the cops because you pumped but couldn't pay.

Every place in the world (save for Cuba) accepts US dollars.

--
Two Reasons Why It's So Hard To Solve A Redneck Murder:
1. All the DNA is the same.
2. There are no dental records.
--------------------------
Paul A. Thomas, CPA
Athens, Georgia

Paul Thomas, CPA

Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:07 am

Guest

"sno" <sno@opelc.com> wrote

Quote:

if you have any check book software with a history
over the past 10 yrs or so....run a check and see
how much it costs you to live over what it did then

Quote:

Or...if you do not...check with your mother about how much it
cost her to live....when she was your age....

Ask here what her income was also.

One factor of inflation is that the people you buy from, and everyone in the
supply chain including you, wants to make a little bit more than the next
guy. Meaning that the biggest chunk of inflation is that you - and everyone
else - does not accept the status quo with regards to income. You want to
have more, so do the folks in the supply chain. To get more you have to
increase your prices to your customers, clients, patients, etc. Maybe
slightly, maybe drastically.

The point is that government didn't cause inflation. WE DID.

The government didn't cause an economic slump. WE DID.

--
If electricity comes from electrons, does morality come from morons?
----------------
Paul A. Thomas, CPA
Athens, Georgia

Paul Thomas, CPA

Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:49 am

Guest

"sno" <sno@opelc.com> wrote

Quote:

Yet, those "tricks" have only fooled you. Everyone knows that the
government posted rate of inflation isn't the true rate of inflation.

And don't ask how they compute the un/employment rate.

At best it's all guesses based on flawed input data. Garbage in, garbage
out.

--
Have no fear of perfection - you'll never reach it.
----------
Paul A. Thomas, CPA

Paul Thomas, CPA

Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:50 am

Guest

"Dan" <dnadan56@hotmail.com> wrote

Quote:

Gas prices have gone up ~16x in the last 60 years.

They were artificially low for decades.

Get over it.

--
Have no fear of perfection - you'll never reach it.
----------
Paul A. Thomas, CPA

Paul Thomas, CPA

Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:51 am

Guest

"strabo" <strabo@flashlight.net> wrote

Quote:

BTW, what is the current relationship of M1, M2 and M3?

Ummmm.......they all contain the letter "M".

--
"For those who believe, no explanation is necessary. For
those who do not, none will suffice." - Joseph Dunniger

Paul A. Thomas, CPA
Athens, Georgia

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