Physikus <physik...@gmx.net> writes:
Hello,

see:http://eqf.homedns.org/

The service supplies for each place of the world earthquake forecasts
with very high accuracy. Look at simply times!

An inspection of the site makes the claims seem highly unlikely. First
off, there is a claim of near 100% accuracy following "months-long
tests." Secondly, in spite of this incredible accuracy, there is a
major section filled with weasel words to explain why a given forecast
doesn't even come to pass.

Furthermore, I did not find the forecasts to be all that informative.
At least, I couldn't figure out what the forecast itself was saying.
There is some numeric and color-coded indication of potential, but no
real explanation of what that actually means. I also didn't see any
particular indication of the strength of the forecast earthquake. So
that would make it seem like any seismic activity at all could be
considered to be a hit.

There were some other minor technical nits, including some very
confusing information about the time zone used for the forecasts.

I find it hard to take this seriously.

--
Thomas A. Russ, USC/Information Sciences Institute

Hello,

see: http://eqf.homedns.org/

The service supplies for each place of the world earthquake forecasts
with very high accuracy. Look at simply times!

The service (http://eqf.)homedns.org /, uses a completely new
algorithm for the preparation of earthquake-potentials

The service passes out probability-potentials,

Physikus <physik...@gmx.net> wrote in news:81a21bd0-6b9b-4aa1-8716-
c88757e90...@m3g2000hsc.googlegroups.com:

The service passes out probability-potentials,

That's somewhat redundantly repeated.

But anyway, what we need are defined locations, defined time
frames, and defined magnitudes. Anything less is pretty much
useless.

Brian
--http://www.skywise711.com- Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ:http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions":http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

On 15 Apr., 23:22, t...@sevak.isi.edu (Thomas A. Russ) wrote:
Physikus <physik...@gmx.net> writes:
Hello,

see:http://eqf.homedns.org/

The service supplies for each place of the world earthquake forecasts
with very high accuracy. Look at simply times!

An inspection of the site makes the claims seem highly unlikely. First
off, there is a claim of near 100% accuracy following "months-long
tests." Secondly, in spite of this incredible accuracy, there is a
major section filled with weasel words to explain why a given forecast
doesn't even come to pass.

Furthermore, I did not find the forecasts to be all that informative.
At least, I couldn't figure out what the forecast itself was saying.
There is some numeric and color-coded indication of potential, but no
real explanation of what that actually means. I also didn't see any
particular indication of the strength of the forecast earthquake. So
that would make it seem like any seismic activity at all could be
considered to be a hit.

There were some other minor technical nits, including some very
confusing information about the time zone used for the forecasts.

I find it hard to take this seriously.

--
Thomas A. Russ, USC/Information Sciences Institute

Now, unfortunately my English is not very good. But I would like to
put something clear:
The service (http://eqf.)homedns.org /, uses a completely new
algorithm for the preparation of earthquake-potentials - at every time
and at each place of the world.
The type of the analysis of mechanisms, which earthquakes cause, is
unknown within the conventional physics up to now.
The service passes out probability-potentials, with what all prognoses
are met by real earthquakes precisely.
The service uses German local time (UTC+2) , as is declared.
Magnitudes the system doesn't predict (nobody can know in what way
earth's crusts are prestressed)!

(Hint: The translation of my German text took place 'Babylon with the
software.com', sorry.)

Physikus

Physikus <physikus1@gmx.net> wrote in news:81a21bd0-6b9b-4aa1-8716-
c88757e9026b@m3g2000hsc.googlegroups.com:

The service passes out probability-potentials,

That's somewhat redundantly repeated.

But anyway, what we need are defined locations, defined time
frames, and defined magnitudes. Anything less is pretty much
useless.

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

On 16 Apr., 04:54, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Physikus <physik...@gmx.net> wrote in news:81a21bd0-6b9b-4aa1-8716-
c88757e90...@m3g2000hsc.googlegroups.com:

The service passes out probability-potentials,

That's somewhat redundantly repeated.

But anyway, what we need are defined locations, defined time
frames, and defined magnitudes. Anything less is pretty much
useless.

Brian
--http://www.skywise711.com- Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ:http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions":http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

The service provides both, as you can see, defined locations and
defined time frames. But nobody is able to predict the strongnes of
predicted EQs, because the parameters of the inner crust is unknown,
at all. Nevertheless the service shows, whereever and whenever a
danger occurs.

Physikus <physik...@gmx.net> wrote in news:49386887-a57a-46ee-9de2-
5ccbc9293...@m36g2000hse.googlegroups.com:
...
So, you are saying you can predict an exact area and an exact time
frame, but the quake could be anything above -infinity?
...

FYI, there is a such thing as a magnitude zero earthquake. Negative
magnitudes, even. Such is the nature of the logarithmic scale. But,
admitedly, such quakes are not much more than breaking a rock with
a hammer.

Brian

Now, unfortunately my English is not very good. But I would like to
put something clear:

The service (http://eqf.)homedns.org /, uses a completely new
algorithm for the preparation of earthquake-potentials - at every time
and at each place of the world.
The type of the analysis of mechanisms, which earthquakes cause, is
unknown within the conventional physics up to now.

The service passes out probability-potentials, with what all prognoses
are met by real earthquakes precisely.

Elaborations or corrections from professionals (disclaimer - I am not a
professional) are welcome.

"Physikus" <physik...@gmx.net> wrote in message
...
What an incredibly archetypical netkook, pseudoscientific response!!

"Magnitudes the system doesn't predict (nobody can know in what way
earth's crusts are prestressed)!"

The three-legged stool of earthquake prediction quite simply, and
rationally, does not provide for the elimination of any of the individual
legs.

Mike Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA U.S.

Physikus <physik...@gmx.net> writes:
...
--
Thomas A. Russ, USC/Information Sciences Institute

Also denn, was ist eigentlich ein Erdbebenwahrscheinlichkeitspotenial?
Was heisst es, wenn dieses Potenial erhoeht sein soll? Was sollte man
darunter verstehen?

Und was soll man unter "real earthquake" verstehen? Soweit ich geshen
habe, ist da keinerlei anerkannten Groessenangabe (z.B. Richterskala),
kein mindestwert von Erdbebenstaerke. Insofern ist es schwer to
erkennen, was man aus einer Vorhersage machen soll, wenn man nicht weiss
ob das Erdbeben ueberhaupt spuerbar sei.

Ist die angegebene Zeit exakt? Oder gibt es ein Interval um die
angegebened Zeit? Oder ist die Zeit der spaetesten Zeitpunkt von so
einem Interval, der mit der Verhersagezeit anfaengt? Und was ist mit
den geographischen Grenzen? Muss das Erdbeben genau an dem angegebenen
Ort stattfinden, genau bis zum 0,01 Grad?

Diese angaben sind natuerlich sehr schwer auszuwerten. Und keiner von
ihnen sind exakt, d.H. die Vorhersage spricht nur von erhoehter
Wahrscheinlichkeit. Wie ist es denn moeglich zu behaupten, dass diese
Methode 100% richtig ist, da die Vorhersagen selber oft wehniger als 50%
Wahrscheinlichkeit beinhalten.