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Science Forum Index » Geology - Earthquakes Forum » Scientists: Big Quake Likely in Calif.
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| Hatunen |
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:25 pm |
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On Wed, 16 Apr 2008 12:39:02 -0700 (PDT), Weatherlawyer
<Weatherlawyer@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On Apr 16, 4:24 pm, Hatunen <hatu...@cox.net> wrote:
On Wed, 16 Apr 2008 08:15:47 -0700 (PDT), Weatherlawyer
Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Apr 16, 2:51 pm, "rick++" <rick...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Why is this news?
People need to be reminded periodically.
Its been 10 years since last large land quake
and 14 since urban area (I not counting San Simeon
or Parkfield).
In the meantime the USGS budget has been cut in
half in real dollars. After the next destructive quake
the politicians will all whine why no one is doing anything.
What would they do with more money? Build bigger walls against us
kooks? Besides, if it came to a choice I'd get rid of ...
They would do what they began doing after the Loma Prieta and
Northridge earthquakes: re-inforcing buildings and public
infrastructure like highway bridges and all. Even, as in the case
of the San Francisco Bay Bridge, replacing the whole thing (or,
in that case, the cantilever eastern portion).
That is the province of the USGS?
I'd have thought it was the purview of the local county or state's
engineering department. How did the USGS go about it? I find the whole
idea fascinating.
Your post is a tad ambiguous. I don't expect you see that,
though.
--
************* DAVE HATUNEN (hatunen@cox.net) *************
* Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
* My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps * |
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| Skywise |
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:14 pm |
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| Skywise |
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:18 pm |
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"Mike Williams" <miklwlms@pacbell.net> wrote in news:tkpNj.1347$FF6.1054
@newssvr29.news.prodigy.net:
Quote: It is my understanding that CalTrans has pretty much completed its seismic
retrofitting of all State Highway overpasses in California. Those bridges
have performed exceptionally well in the past, even prior to the
retrofitting.
There's a bridge in my area that recently got fitted with steel
jackets. Considering the number of pillars, how short they are,
and now the jackets, I can't see that thing coming down in even
the biggest potential quake for the area. It looks massively
over-engineered.
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes? |
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| Skywise |
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:21 pm |
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Weatherlawyer <Weatherlawyer@hotmail.com> wrote in news:e6edef9f-8f86-431f-
9181-d807348ae397@l64g2000hse.googlegroups.com:
Quote: Snarky, rudely sarcastic or disrespectful; snide. Hmm..
Would it be irresponsible of me to point out that it hardly requires a
large budget to inform most principled engineers what sort of design
parameters they aught to be issuing to architects in earthquake prone
areas?
The fact of the matter is that there is more need to strip search pre-
menstrual tourists in airport toilets these days than for the servants
of the Chimp to inform the government who has detonated a nuclear
device and where.
Maybe _some_ ignorance is not so curable.
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes? |
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| Hatunen |
Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 12:30 pm |
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On Thu, 17 Apr 2008 03:18:22 GMT, Skywise
<into@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Quote: "Mike Williams" <miklwlms@pacbell.net> wrote in news:tkpNj.1347$FF6.1054
@newssvr29.news.prodigy.net:
It is my understanding that CalTrans has pretty much completed its seismic
retrofitting of all State Highway overpasses in California. Those bridges
have performed exceptionally well in the past, even prior to the
retrofitting.
There's a bridge in my area that recently got fitted with steel
jackets. Considering the number of pillars, how short they are,
and now the jackets, I can't see that thing coming down in even
the biggest potential quake for the area. It looks massively
over-engineered.
Jackets on concrete columns address a problem noted after the
Loma Prieta earthquake. A number of such columns were found to
have had the verticals of the rebar cage inside the concrete had
expanded and splayed out like taking off a Mexican finger trap.
The plates restrain this from happening.
using a lot of circumferential rebar hoops at initial
construction can solve this problem, but many old bridges didn't
allow for that kind of massive downward force.
The circumferential plating is not there to strengthen the column
against bending.
--
************* DAVE HATUNEN (hatunen@cox.net) *************
* Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
* My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps * |
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| Skywise |
Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 9:51 pm |
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Hatunen <hatunen@cox.net> wrote in
news:v12f045pvmd3mfpekls4sc3pato2v68u06@4ax.com:
Quote: Jackets on concrete columns address a problem noted after the
Loma Prieta earthquake. A number of such columns were found to
have had the verticals of the rebar cage inside the concrete had
expanded and splayed out like taking off a Mexican finger trap.
The plates restrain this from happening.
using a lot of circumferential rebar hoops at initial
construction can solve this problem, but many old bridges didn't
allow for that kind of massive downward force.
The circumferential plating is not there to strengthen the column
against bending.
I understand all that. But my point is, this freeway bridge has
three rows of columns (left, right, and center) to span a 4 lane
road with median. Each row of columns has I think at least 8
columns. This bridge is also not one of the lofty sky-scraping
ones.
It's not a tall and lanky bridge, more squat and fat.
I'll try to take pics and post them.
Brians
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes? |
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| Thomas A. Russ |
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 1:50 pm |
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Weatherlawyer <Weatherlawyer@hotmail.com> writes:
Quote: Would it be irresponsible of me to point out that it hardly requires a
large budget to inform most principled engineers what sort of design
parameters they aught to be issuing to architects in earthquake prone
areas?
Wel, informing the engineers about the design parameters doesn't require
a lot of resources. Although since this needs to go through the
building codes, there is a fair bit of inertia involved in getting a
revision of the Uniform Building Codes.
The really difficult part, and the part for which scientific funding is
necessary is figuring out what the design parameters need to be. A
large part of the recent hazard mitigation work on the part of the USGS
has involved the development of appropriate models to predict the
expected forces and accelerations that will be present in different
areas. There has been an effort to update the earthquake hazard maps,
and in the process to try to integrate some of the more recent research
results into those hazard calculations.
IIRC, one of the surprises of the Northridge quake was the amount of
vertical acceleration that was generated. This then required a revision
of the design parameters, but it also meant that the models needed to be
updated and (very importantly) validated before any new guidance could
be issued with regard to any design parameters.
For various good (and bad) reasons, this takes some time and effort,
especially since any decisions have potentially far-reaching safety and
economic repercussions.
--
Thomas A. Russ, USC/Information Sciences Institute |
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| Jo Schaper |
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 10:43 am |
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rick++ wrote:
Quote: Why is this news?
People need to be reminded periodically.
Its been 10 years since last large land quake
and 14 since urban area (I not counting San Simeon
or Parkfield).
In the meantime the USGS budget has been cut in
half in real dollars. After the next destructive quake
the politicians will all whine why no one is doing anything.
Exactly. Politicos (esp. in an election year) like to claim they are
cutting big government. They see some $300,000 study about Asian
cornborers or such, and think it is fluff, not work that keeps their
ethanol projects on track, and the farmers in Maize City happy enough to
vote for them again.
People near me want river monitoring and instant flood data, but when
you tell them that takes instrumentation, and people to read and
maintain it, they say government is too big. Natural hazards is too
large a field to hand it over to Billy Bob and Billie Mae from Natural
Hazards of Hazard County, LLC, which some people would like to do. There
really does need to be national coordination on such things.
I've been following a local paper's eq blog "Where were you when the 5.2
or 4.6 on the Wabash Valley Zone hit?" I am amazed at the people who
thought that the shaking was caused by raccoons climbing their houses,
their cats jumping on their beds, quarries blasting at 4:30 a.m. in a
residential area, burglars (one fellow said he thought it was an
intruder using power tools) and equally, the number of 5 to 9 year olds
who reported more accurately than the adults, as in "Mommy, what's
shaking my bed?" while the parents cowered and rationalized the
movement. One lady took her cell phone, car keys, put on her shoes, and
took the comforter from her bed and headed for the basement. (eeek!)
Obviously, the USGS has a lot of work to do to educate people, and so
does FEMA (Federal Earthquake Management Agency *|;-^)
The 'animal predicts earthquake" people might want to take a look at
that blog -- www.stltoday.com under Talk of the Day, if they want a mess
of anecdotal reports. Most of the animal unusual responses, however,
weren't far enough in advance for the humans to do anything, especially
since they were more worried about raccoons with power tools attacking
their homes. |
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| Mike Williams |
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 2:11 pm |
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Guest
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"Jo Schaper" <jo345sch765aper@s9ocket.net> wrote in message
news:JNSdnUZsDu5_-ZbVnZ2dnUVZ_j-dnZ2d@socketinternetservices...
Quote: rick++ wrote:
Why is this news?
People need to be reminded periodically.
Its been 10 years since last large land quake
and 14 since urban area (I not counting San Simeon
or Parkfield).
In the meantime the USGS budget has been cut in
half in real dollars. After the next destructive quake
the politicians will all whine why no one is doing anything.
Exactly. Politicos (esp. in an election year) like to claim they are
cutting big government. They see some $300,000 study about Asian
cornborers or such, and think it is fluff, not work that keeps their
ethanol projects on track, and the farmers in Maize City happy enough to
vote for them again.
People near me want river monitoring and instant flood data, but when you
tell them that takes instrumentation, and people to read and maintain it,
they say government is too big. Natural hazards is too large a field to
hand it over to Billy Bob and Billie Mae from Natural Hazards of Hazard
County, LLC, which some people would like to do. There really does need to
be national coordination on such things.
I've been following a local paper's eq blog "Where were you when the 5.2
or 4.6 on the Wabash Valley Zone hit?" I am amazed at the people who
thought that the shaking was caused by raccoons climbing their houses,
their cats jumping on their beds, quarries blasting at 4:30 a.m. in a
residential area, burglars (one fellow said he thought it was an intruder
using power tools) and equally, the number of 5 to 9 year olds who
reported more accurately than the adults, as in "Mommy, what's shaking my
bed?" while the parents cowered and rationalized the movement. One lady
took her cell phone, car keys, put on her shoes, and took the comforter
from her bed and headed for the basement. (eeek!)
Obviously, the USGS has a lot of work to do to educate people, and so does
FEMA (Federal Earthquake Management Agency *|;-^)
The 'animal predicts earthquake" people might want to take a look at that
blog -- www.stltoday.com under Talk of the Day, if they want a mess of
anecdotal reports. Most of the animal unusual responses, however, weren't
far enough in advance for the humans to do anything, especially since they
were more worried about raccoons with power tools attacking their homes.
Good post, Jo.
The several responses in this thread seem to indicate that individuals think
there is nothing new in this study. I beg to differ. The information IS new.
But I especially appreciate your mention of how taxpayers object to
spending, say, $300K on obscure subjects such as cornborers. That study's
cost, for instance, works out to about one tenth of one
penny/man-woman-child in the U.S., somewhat more/taxpayer. I'm more than
happy to contribute.
But I think you are a little amiss in blaming "the politicos." It is
individuals who don't understand either the function or value of government
who are to blame, and the groups they form. For all we like to disdain our
politicians, for the most part they are intelligent and accomplished
individuals who are forced by the system to kow-tow to the often ignorant
beliefs of the electorate.
More NPR, less "Reality TV". And more school funding.
Perhaps there will be some small improvement with the next administration,
which is likely to be not quite so anti-government nor anti-science.
Mike Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA U.S. |
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| Skywise |
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 10:27 pm |
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| rick++ |
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 5:07 am |
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On Apr 16, 9:15 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: What would they do with more money? Build bigger walls against us
kooks? Besides, if it came to a choice I'd get rid of ...
I can think of lots of things. I guess the question is whether the
feds want to
retain their internal center of expertise (USGS) or outsource it to
universities.
The NSF buget has a healthy 13% increase in geoscience R&D.
Soem things I'd like to see:
1) More search for hidden faults. After half the major 1980s and 1990s
California quakes occurred on these. Oil companies spend billions
searching for hidden faults, but the earthquake peopel dont have these
resources.
2) Implementation of early warning systems. Japan and Mexico have
made good progress as reported at the SSA a few days ago. The US
has fallen behind in this area. This is something a governement
should
be doing. An early warning system would detect a quake in less than
30
seconds and braodcast that fact at the speed of light giving others
seconds
to minutes warning.
3) In-situ falt studies. The SAFOD hole penetrating the San Andreas
near
Parkfield demolished some pre-conceptions geophysicists had about
faults.
We need to know whether this region was typical or not. It took about
30
years for the SAFOD leaders to get funding and implement the program. |
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| rick++ |
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 5:12 am |
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On Apr 20, 9:43 am, Jo Schaper <jo345sch765a...@s9ocket.net> wrote:
Quote: rick++ wrote:
Exactly. Politicos (esp. in an election year) like to claim they are
cutting big government. They see some $300,000 study about Asian
cornborers or such, and think it is fluff, not work that keeps their
ethanol projects on track, and the farmers in Maize City happy enough to
vote for them again.
These cuts pretty started when Newt Gingrich took Congress in 1994.
Anything dealing with environment was targetted - NASA Earth
satellites,
Dept of Commerce NOAA, Bureau Land Management, and of course the
Department of Interior. Congress is still pretty balanced since 2006,
but these cuts are still being porposed and passing. |
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| Mike Williams |
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 10:52 am |
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"rick++" <rick303@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:ac0a2367-cd40-41ea-a8cf-a3efef347093@x19g2000prg.googlegroups.com...
Quote: On Apr 20, 9:43 am, Jo Schaper <jo345sch765a...@s9ocket.net> wrote:
rick++ wrote:
Exactly. Politicos (esp. in an election year) like to claim they are
cutting big government. They see some $300,000 study about Asian
cornborers or such, and think it is fluff, not work that keeps their
ethanol projects on track, and the farmers in Maize City happy enough to
vote for them again.
These cuts pretty started when Newt Gingrich took Congress in 1994.
Anything dealing with environment was targetted - NASA Earth
satellites,
Dept of Commerce NOAA, Bureau Land Management, and of course the
Department of Interior. Congress is still pretty balanced since 2006,
but these cuts are still being porposed and passing.
Thanks for your input, Rick. I have a slightly different take on the science
cuts peculiar to recent Republican administrations (particularly. though not
exclusively, that of the current Bush).
It seems, to me, that the USGS has been hit particularly hard as regards
budget cuts. Though I agree that the negative impact on corporate profits
due to environmental concerns, and other similar factors, figure in, I think
an additional reason might involve the heavy involvement of fundamental,
evangelistic Christian ideology. Clearly, geologists have been in the
forefront of debunking much of the Christian belief system, especially with
regard to age of the Earth, geocentric cosmology, evolution, the fossil
record, and etc.
Just trying to stir up some additional (and, likely, gratuitous)
controversy.
Mike Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA U.S. |
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| Jo Schaper |
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 10:54 am |
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rick++ wrote:
Quote: On Apr 16, 9:15 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
What would they do with more money? Build bigger walls against us
kooks? Besides, if it came to a choice I'd get rid of ...
I can think of lots of things. I guess the question is whether the
feds want to
retain their internal center of expertise (USGS) or outsource it to
universities.
The NSF buget has a healthy 13% increase in geoscience R&D.
I'd rather they keep it inhouse where the people can watch the politics,
and the studies are done by professionals. Too much NSF money is used to
fund graduate students, where the actual boots on the ground work is
being done by inexperienced technicians, often under the supervision of
someone who is not operating in their major field of expertise.
At least with the USGS, the technicians and scientists have some
experience and training, and the taxpayers have oversight. |
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| Jo Schaper |
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 11:12 am |
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Mike Williams wrote:
<snip>
Quote: Good post, Jo.
The several responses in this thread seem to indicate that individuals think
there is nothing new in this study. I beg to differ. The information IS new.
But I especially appreciate your mention of how taxpayers object to
spending, say, $300K on obscure subjects such as cornborers. That study's
cost, for instance, works out to about one tenth of one
penny/man-woman-child in the U.S., somewhat more/taxpayer. I'm more than
happy to contribute.
But I think you are a little amiss in blaming "the politicos." It is
individuals who don't understand either the function or value of government
who are to blame, and the groups they form. For all we like to disdain our
politicians, for the most part they are intelligent and accomplished
individuals who are forced by the system to kow-tow to the often ignorant
beliefs of the electorate.
Hmmm. Maybe you have 'intelligent and accomplished' politicians in
California. I think John Danforth was the last well-educated
"statesman" to come out of Missouri, and he's been out of office for
quite some time. We've just got lesser beings arguing over non-existent
problems, attempting to mandate the use of BC and AD in all state
documents, and the voters thinking Jim or Jane is qualified because they
are related to Senator Yesmygod or Representative Runamuck.
Quote: More NPR, less "Reality TV".
I listen to NPR much less in the last two years, since they became "Alll
Iraq, all the time." I suppose we will buy a converter box, but TV is
below cleaning the bathroom on the list of fun things to do.
And more school funding.
I still don't think that education and proper upbringing of children
has anything to do with school funding beyond ensuring that a school
building and environment is safe, in good repair, a modicum of
up-to-date materials are provided, (with the students able to access
other educational stuff when needed) the teachers know their subjects
and are enthusiastic about them and teaching them, and the students are
present, and held accountable for their performance. There is a bare
level beyond which education suffers, but some of what passes for
education these days gives me the willies. I think if I had children, I
would have homeschooled them, not for ideological reasons, but because
I've seen what passes for education these days.
If you don't believe me, ask to visit your local school. |
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