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Science Forum Index » Geology - Meteorology Forum » April 2008 30-Day Forecast
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 Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:33 am |
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APRIL 2008 30-DAY OUTLOOK
438 PM EDT Mon. March 31, 2008
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
A strong cold episode persist throughout the tropical Pacific.
Surface sea surface temperatures are far below normal across the
central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. Low-level equatorial easterly
winds were stronger than normal across the central regions along with
stronger than normal upper level winds. Convection remains suppressed
over the central Pacific. These conditions are forecast to persist
through spring and are expected to influence conditions across North
America.
NAO is in a negative phase and is forecast to trend slightly positive
during the first 14 days of the month. The PNA is also negative and is
also forecast to trend towards neutral to slightly negative during the
same period. Models are in good agreement with the 500-HPA height in
April is forecast to persist of a trough in the Gulf of Alaska
extending south across the eastern Pacific. A ridge will be over
Alaska into the northern Rockies with another ridge in the North
Atlantic. A split flow will cover most of the nation. Heights will be
below normal along the West coast. Above normal heights will cover the
Southeast eastward across the southern tier of the nation and much of
the East.
Below normal temperatures are expected for northern California, Oregon
and Washington. The probability of below normal temperatures in this
region is 56 percent. Above normal temperatures are expected across
the southern tier of the nation. The probability of above normal
temperatures occurring across this area is 57 percent. The remainder
of the nation is expected to average near normal with no significant
deviation from normal climatology.
Above normal precipitation is expected across the Northwest. The
probability of above normal precipitation in this area is 58 percent.
Below normal precipitation is expected across the Southwest, and much
of the Rockies. The probability of below normal precipitation in this
region is 57 percent. Above normal precipitation is expected across
the central gulf coast northeastward across the Southeast, the mid-
Atlantic and the Northeast. The probability of above normal
precipitation across this region is 56 percent. The remainder of the
nation is expected to be near normal with no significant deviation
from climatology.
Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx |
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