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Science Forum Index » Space - History Forum » If the shuttle had never been built
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| hallerb@aol.com |
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:31 pm |
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Apollo moon is winding down. Now lets imagine the shuttle had never
been built. NASA looked at it and decided its flight rate wouldnt be
necessary, so operations would cost too much.
So they looked at making some of apollo reusable, and other cost
cutting ideas.
wonder what they would of come up with? |
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| Eric Chomko |
Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 11:00 am |
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On Mar 19, 11:31 pm, "hall...@aol.com" <hall...@aol.com> wrote:
Quote: Apollo moon is winding down. Now lets imagine the shuttle had never
been built. NASA looked at it and decided its flight rate wouldnt be
necessary, so operations would cost too much.
So they looked at making some of apollo reusable, and other cost
cutting ideas.
wonder what they would of come up with?
Skylab. They already did that! |
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| hallerb@aol.com |
Posted: Sat Mar 22, 2008 9:42 am |
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bump, i think its interesting wondering what might have been.......
apollo appications would of taken us to some asteroids, and another
skylab for sure. the air and space was a full flight article |
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| Eric Chomko |
Posted: Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:43 pm |
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On Mar 22, 3:42 pm, "hall...@aol.com" <hall...@aol.com> wrote:
Quote: bump, i think its interesting wondering what might have been.......
apollo appications would of taken us to some asteroids, and another
skylab for sure. the air and space was a full flight article
Or, we would have EXACTLY what we have today... |
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| are |
Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 4:03 am |
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On Mar 20, 3:31 am, "hall...@aol.com" <hall...@aol.com> wrote:
Quote: Apollo moon is winding down. Now lets imagine the shuttle had never
been built. NASA looked at it and decided its flight rate wouldnt be
necessary, so operations would cost too much.
So they looked at making some of apollo reusable, and other cost
cutting ideas.
wonder what they would of come up with?
It's interesting the Griffin in a speech a year or so ago pointed out
that for the money spent on the Shuttle, NASA could have had a modest
Skylab-type space-station program and continued to fly one or two
Apollo missions to the moon every year. And then heavy-lift capability
(the Saturn V) would still be available today.
There were two big factors influencing post-Apollo space policy. One
was money: the US having won the moon race, space was no longer so
useful as a weapon in the Cold War. Therefore, the space budget had
to fall. The other factor was risk aversion. Even some people in
NASA were worried about that losing a crew would have on the agency.
Had Apollo continued, sooner or later a crew would have died, and
quite possibly not quickly.
On the subject of cutting costs, several options aside from the
Shuttle were discussed. One was the development of a new family of
cheap, low-tech boosters, probably pressure fed. They'd be heavy and
inefficient from a structural point of view, but they'd be cheaper to
operate.
Another thing considered was replacing the Saturn IB with the Titan
III. I don't know that the Titan was intrinsically much cheaper than
the Saturn, but eliminating a production line would certainly have
saved money, and the Titan III had the strong political backing of the
Air Force.
There were proposals to improve the Saturns. My favorite among these
are the Saturns V-B, -C and -D proposed by Corcoran and Scott in a
1968 paper (astronautix.com has some information on these boosters).
The first stage of the Saturn V would have been made into a stage-and-
a-half model known as the S-ID: part way through the flight the outer
four engines would have been dropped. The first stage flying by
itself, known as the Saturn V-B, could have carried 50,000 lb into
LEO. This would have eliminated the need for the Saturn IB, allowing
that production line to be closed. It's possible that the four dropped
engines would have been recovered and re-used.
With the S-ID stage earning its keep by flying Apollo CSMs into LEO,
perhaps it would have been possible to keep the Saturn V's S-II stage
in production, allowing the launching of large space-station
components. Now we're getting manned access to LEO *and* heavy lift
with just two rocket stages in production, rather than the four that
would have been required using the Saturn IB for launching crews and
the two-stage verson of the Saturn V for heavy lift. Then if you
could talk the Air Force into using the Saturn V-B instead of the
Titan IIIC (much as it got talked into using the Shuttle, to its
chagrin), per-unit costs for the V-B might be pretty low.
Over time the Apollo CSM could have evolved into something better
suited to LEO applications. The command module could have been adapted
to carry a crew as large as six (see David Shayler's book "Apollo: The
Lost and Forgotten Missions") and to touch down on land, making
operations cheaper. Perhaps the service module, which was over-
designed for LEO missions, might have evolved into a smaller, lighter
and cheaper version. I would have thought that, especially with a
touch-down on land, there's no fundamental reason the command modules
could not have been refurbished and re-used.
To keep lunar missions flying under this scenario, you'd still need
the S-IVB, for which we have no other use. My feeling is that between
the cost of keeping the S-IVB in production and NASA's increased
aversion to risk, manned lunar flights would have stopped. Looking
further to the future, though, maybe someday we would have gotten
around to re-fueling empty S-II stages in LEO and then heading for the
moon with some really serious spacecraft. |
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| Jorge R. Frank |
Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 12:49 pm |
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are wrote:
Quote: On Mar 20, 3:31 am, "hall...@aol.com" <hall...@aol.com> wrote:
Apollo moon is winding down. Now lets imagine the shuttle had never
been built. NASA looked at it and decided its flight rate wouldnt be
necessary, so operations would cost too much.
So they looked at making some of apollo reusable, and other cost
cutting ideas.
wonder what they would of come up with?
It's interesting the Griffin in a speech a year or so ago pointed out
that for the money spent on the Shuttle, NASA could have had a modest
Skylab-type space-station program and continued to fly one or two
Apollo missions to the moon every year. And then heavy-lift capability
(the Saturn V) would still be available today.
Griffin was mistaken. As much as I disagree with Jeffrey Bell most of
the time, he wrote a good article dissecting Griffin's numbers and logic.
Bottom line, on NASA's lean budgets of the early 70's, there was no
saving the Saturn V. The Apollo CSM probably. The Saturn IB, maybe. But
not the V. And not the LM.
Quote: On the subject of cutting costs, several options aside from the
Shuttle were discussed. One was the development of a new family of
cheap, low-tech boosters, probably pressure fed. They'd be heavy and
inefficient from a structural point of view, but they'd be cheaper to
operate.
That is only a "local minimum" of the optimization function. The global
minimum is an RLV flying at high flight rates with minimum maintenance
required between flights. The shuttle was an attempt at that, but their
first problem was hubris: the belief that they could "get it right" with
an operational vehicle the first time around, without a series of
X-vehicles leading up to it from where the X-15 left off. (Their second
problem was being unwilling to re-examine their assumptions once they
proved to be flawed, and making do as best they could with what they had.)
Quote: Another thing considered was replacing the Saturn IB with the Titan
III. I don't know that the Titan was intrinsically much cheaper than
the Saturn,
It was. Had the US decided to continue with the Apollo CSM, it's likely
they would have launched atop Titan IIIs once the supply of Saturn IBs
was exhausted.
Quote: There were proposals to improve the Saturns. My favorite among these
are the Saturns V-B, -C and -D proposed by Corcoran and Scott in a
1968 paper (astronautix.com has some information on these boosters).
The first stage of the Saturn V would have been made into a stage-and-
a-half model known as the S-ID: part way through the flight the outer
four engines would have been dropped. The first stage flying by
itself, known as the Saturn V-B, could have carried 50,000 lb into
LEO. This would have eliminated the need for the Saturn IB, allowing
that production line to be closed. It's possible that the four dropped
engines would have been recovered and re-used.
I think a better solution, in terms of preserving lunar capability for
later, would have been the opposite: keep the Saturn IB but replace the
first stage with a non-clustered stage utilizing a single F-1A rather
than eight H-2s. That way you keep both the F-1 and J-2 lines open. But
cost-wise, it still would have been a loser compared to the Titan III.
Quote: Over time the Apollo CSM could have evolved into something better
suited to LEO applications. The command module could have been adapted
to carry a crew as large as six (see David Shayler's book "Apollo: The
Lost and Forgotten Missions") and to touch down on land, making
operations cheaper.
I really doubt you could do both at the same time...
Quote: Perhaps the service module, which was over-
designed for LEO missions, might have evolved into a smaller, lighter
and cheaper version. I would have thought that, especially with a
touch-down on land, there's no fundamental reason the command modules
could not have been refurbished and re-used.
You'd probably replace the SPS with a cluster of RCS thrusters,
eliminating a whole propellant subsystem while improving fault-tolerance
for deorbit. Later in the 70's, perhaps replace the fuel cells with
solar arrays. And either shorten the SM, or utilize the bays that held
the oversized SPS propellant tanks to carry payload like the SIM bays.
I really don't see what reusing the CM buys you at such low flight
rates. The equipment really was designed for one-shot use.
Quote: To keep lunar missions flying under this scenario, you'd still need
the S-IVB, for which we have no other use. My feeling is that between
the cost of keeping the S-IVB in production and NASA's increased
aversion to risk, manned lunar flights would have stopped.
I think that would have happened under any scenario. |
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| Rand Simberg |
Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 1:18 pm |
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On Sun, 23 Mar 2008 12:49:25 -0500, in a place far, far away, "Jorge
R. Frank" <jrfrank@ibm-pc.borg> made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:
Quote: Another thing considered was replacing the Saturn IB with the Titan
III. I don't know that the Titan was intrinsically much cheaper than
the Saturn,
It was. Had the US decided to continue with the Apollo CSM, it's likely
they would have launched atop Titan IIIs once the supply of Saturn IBs
was exhausted.
In fact, Apollo would have been much cheaper (and more sustainable,
though perhaps not enough) had they taken this approach in the first
place, and not developed Saturn at all.
Saturn was not developed to save money. It was developed to save
time, and beat the Russians to the moon. Too few people understand
this.
By the way, I'm about two-thirds of the way through First Man. It
gets pretty deep into the weeds, but it has a lot of stuff about
Apollo (and Armstrong) of which I hadn't been aware. Probably not
news to sshers, but I hadn't read it previously. I picked it up
remaindered at a Borders outlet store a couple months ago in Naples
for four bucks. |
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| hallerb@aol.com |
Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 4:40 pm |
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On Mar 23, 9:17�pm, Brian Thorn <bthor...@suddenlink.net> wrote:
Quote: On Sun, 23 Mar 2008 18:18:16 GMT, simberg.interglo...@org.trash (Rand
Simberg) wrote:
In fact, Apollo would have been much cheaper (and more sustainable,
though perhaps not enough) had they taken this approach in the first
place, and not developed Saturn at all. �
Titan III-C didn't yet exist when Apollo was born. In fact, an
argument can be made that the Air Force should have joined the
already-existant Saturn program rather than make the huge investment
in SRBs and Complex 40-41 needed for III-C. But there was too much NIH
going on.
Saturn was not developed to save money. �It was developed to save
time, and beat the Russians to the moon. �Too few people understand
this.
Because its only partly true. Saturn I and Apollo were already in
development before the moon goal was approved by Kennedy. That's why
the first Saturn was able to fly only five months after the "before
this decade is out" speech.
Saturn IB was born of the moon program, but something like it (an
improved Saturn I... Saturn C-2 or whatever) would have followed
anyway. But von Braun's Saturn family was already on the drawing
boards... NASA just had to jump past C-2 through C-4 (and C-5....
Saturn V... was actually closer to the Nova concepts) to meet the 1970
deadline.
Apollo, launched by Saturn I, was planned as America's generic
spacecraft to succeed Mercury. It got the moon mission by default,
with Gemini later implemented to speed the process up.
Brian
if moon flights had continued with 2 pads they could of built so
redundancy for disasters into the system. like sending a supplies LM
or some such. at the time the biggest fear was a capsule stuck in
lunar orbit. work arounds could of been devloped. and imagine the
upgrades over time as intergrated circuits and computers
advanced....... |
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| are |
Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 8:00 pm |
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On Mar 23, 5:49 pm, "Jorge R. Frank" <jrfr...@ibm-pc.borg> wrote:
Quote: Griffin was mistaken. As much as I disagree with Jeffrey Bell most of
the time, he wrote a good article dissecting Griffin's numbers and logic.
I'd like to see that -- do you know where I could find it?
Quote: On the subject of cutting costs, several options aside from the
Shuttle were discussed. One was the development of a new family of
cheap, low-tech boosters, probably pressure fed. They'd be heavy and
inefficient from a structural point of view, but they'd be cheaper to
operate.
That is only a "local minimum" of the optimization function.
The global
minimum is an RLV flying at high flight rates with minimum maintenance
required between flights.
The OP specified a low flight rate.
Quote: The shuttle was an attempt at that, but their
first problem was hubris: the belief that they could "get it right" with
an operational vehicle the first time around, without a series of
X-vehicles leading up to it from where the X-15 left off. (Their second
problem was being unwilling to re-examine their assumptions once they
proved to be flawed, and making do as best they could with what they had.)
I agree about that...!
Quote: I don't know that the Titan was intrinsically much cheaper than
the Saturn,
It was.
But was this *intrinsic* to the vehicle, or was it because the Titan
was also used by the Air Force and maybe had some of its overhead paid
for by the Titan ICBM program?
Quote: There were proposals to improve the Saturns. My favorite among these
are the Saturns V-B, -C and -D proposed by Corcoran and Scott in a
1968 paper (astronautix.com has some information on these boosters).
The first stage of the Saturn V would have been made into a stage-and-
a-half model known as the S-ID: part way through the flight the outer
four engines would have been dropped. The first stage flying by
itself, known as the Saturn V-B, could have carried 50,000 lb into
LEO. This would have eliminated the need for the Saturn IB, allowing
that production line to be closed. It's possible that the four dropped
engines would have been recovered and re-used.
I think a better solution, in terms of preserving lunar capability for
later, would have been the opposite: keep the Saturn IB but replace the
first stage with a non-clustered stage utilizing a single F-1A rather
than eight H-2s. That way you keep both the F-1 and J-2 lines open.
But S-ID + S-II keeps the F-1 and J-2 lines open as well. Plus, it
would have been difficult to use Saturn IB production as an excuse to
keep the F-1 line open, since the H-1 engine was needed anyway for the
Delta.
Quote: But cost-wise, it still would have been a loser compared to the Titan III.
If the 4 booster engines could have been re-used and if the AF could
have been talked into becoming a V-B customer, the V-B would get
cheaper.
Quote: Over time the Apollo CSM could have evolved into something
better suited to LEO applications. The command module could
have been adapted to carry a crew as large as six (see David
Shayler's book "Apollo: The
Lost and Forgotten Missions") and to touch down on land, making
operations cheaper.
I really doubt you could do both at the same time...
Shayler cites a North American study offering land recovery and a crew
of 4-6. |
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| Brian Thorn |
Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 9:17 pm |
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On Sun, 23 Mar 2008 18:18:16 GMT, simberg.interglobal@org.trash (Rand
Simberg) wrote:
Quote: In fact, Apollo would have been much cheaper (and more sustainable,
though perhaps not enough) had they taken this approach in the first
place, and not developed Saturn at all.
Titan III-C didn't yet exist when Apollo was born. In fact, an
argument can be made that the Air Force should have joined the
already-existant Saturn program rather than make the huge investment
in SRBs and Complex 40-41 needed for III-C. But there was too much NIH
going on.
Quote: Saturn was not developed to save money. It was developed to save
time, and beat the Russians to the moon. Too few people understand
this.
Because its only partly true. Saturn I and Apollo were already in
development before the moon goal was approved by Kennedy. That's why
the first Saturn was able to fly only five months after the "before
this decade is out" speech.
Saturn IB was born of the moon program, but something like it (an
improved Saturn I... Saturn C-2 or whatever) would have followed
anyway. But von Braun's Saturn family was already on the drawing
boards... NASA just had to jump past C-2 through C-4 (and C-5....
Saturn V... was actually closer to the Nova concepts) to meet the 1970
deadline.
Apollo, launched by Saturn I, was planned as America's generic
spacecraft to succeed Mercury. It got the moon mission by default,
with Gemini later implemented to speed the process up.
Brian |
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| Rand Simberg |
Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 9:55 pm |
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Guest
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On Mon, 24 Mar 2008 02:17:45 GMT, in a place far, far away, Brian
Thorn <bthorn64@suddenlink.net> made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:
Quote: On Sun, 23 Mar 2008 18:18:16 GMT, simberg.interglobal@org.trash (Rand
Simberg) wrote:
In fact, Apollo would have been much cheaper (and more sustainable,
though perhaps not enough) had they taken this approach in the first
place, and not developed Saturn at all.
Titan III-C didn't yet exist when Apollo was born. In fact, an
argument can be made that the Air Force should have joined the
already-existant Saturn program rather than make the huge investment
in SRBs and Complex 40-41 needed for III-C. But there was too much NIH
going on.
Saturn was not developed to save money. It was developed to save
time, and beat the Russians to the moon. Too few people understand
this.
Because its only partly true. Saturn I and Apollo were already in
development before the moon goal was approved by Kennedy. That's why
the first Saturn was able to fly only five months after the "before
this decade is out" speech.
Saturn IB was born of the moon program, but something like it (an
improved Saturn I... Saturn C-2 or whatever) would have followed
anyway. But von Braun's Saturn family was already on the drawing
boards...
Where it would have likely remained, absent the need to beat the
Russians to the moon. |
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| Brian Thorn |
Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 11:35 pm |
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On Mon, 24 Mar 2008 02:55:24 GMT, simberg.interglobal@org.trash (Rand
Simberg) wrote:
Quote: Saturn IB was born of the moon program, but something like it (an
improved Saturn I... Saturn C-2 or whatever) would have followed
anyway. But von Braun's Saturn family was already on the drawing
boards...
Where it would have likely remained, absent the need to beat the
Russians to the moon.
That depends on what America's objective in space in the 1960s would
have been, absent Kennedy's mandate. NASA seemed to be working in the
general direction of a Space Station, with von Braun clearly
supporting that idea. But the need for increasingly heavy payloads
doesn't go away without JFK's mandate, so progressively larger
launchers would still have arrived (as they did in real life with
Titan II -> Titan IIIC -> Titan IIID -> Titan IIIE, none of which had
anything to do with Apollo.)
Saturn C-1 would still have happened. Probably also the improved H-1
engines and stretched tanks of the Saturn IB, which were both modest
and logical improvements (a progression we also saw with Delta and
Titan.) S-IVB would have been on the back burner.
Saturn C-2, not Saturn IB, would have introduced the J-2 engine, on a
more leisurely development schedule arriving in the late '60s. J-2 was
already in development pre-Apollo, and would likely have continued.
This vehicle was a Saturn I first stage and an S-IV, with a new J-2
powered second stage inserted between them. Saturn C-2 would have been
a Titan IV-class vehicle 20 years before Titan IV that could have
launched 18-20 ft. diameter Space Station modules (compared to 10 ft
diameter Titan III), and was still a direct descendant of Saturn I,
using lots of proven Saturn I hardware. This probably would have been
the vehicle the Air Force chooses for MOL, in a Titan-free world,
since there was no Gemini without Kennedy's mandate. NASA would later
have used it for Voyager and Viking.
The moon was still a long range goal pre-Apollo and wouldn't have gone
away absent the space race with the USSR, it just probably would have
happened in the mid to late '70s, and then almost certainly on growth
versions of Saturn using EOR, just as Von Braun originally proposed.
These might have been C-2s with S-IVB in place of S-IV, as replacing
the six RL-10s with one now-proven J-2 would have been attractive. Or
they might have been C-3s, introducing F-1-powered first stages (F-1
also in development pre-Apollo) with essentially the C-2's upper
stages.
Without Kennedy's moon mandate, U.S. space exploration in the '60s and
'70s would have been very different, obviously. But I don't at all
believe that would have been the end of Saturn/Apollo. With no moon
mandate (and that huge influx of cash), NASA may well have been more
agreeable to working with the Air Force on future launchers (as it had
previously with Thor-Delta.) The Air Force, in turn, would have less
anxiety about its needs being usurped by NASA and the moon program and
may well have been more agreeable to working with NASA on a common
launcher family. Saturn I (first flight: 1961) was already deep in
development, compared to what became Titan III (first flight: 1965.)
Saturn would almost certainly have been the choice for the common
launcher.
Brian |
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| Anthony Frost |
Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 6:12 am |
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In message <0-Cdncv0l4uEBXvanZ2dnUVZ_uGknZ2d@giganews.com>
"Jorge R. Frank" <jrfrank@ibm-pc.borg> wrote:
Quote: are wrote:
... Saturn V-B, could have carried 50,000 lb into
LEO. This would have eliminated the need for the Saturn IB, allowing
that production line to be closed. It's possible that the four dropped
engines would have been recovered and re-used.
I think a better solution, in terms of preserving lunar capability for
later, would have been the opposite: keep the Saturn IB but replace the
first stage with a non-clustered stage utilizing a single F-1A rather
than eight H-2s. That way you keep both the F-1 and J-2 lines open. But
cost-wise, it still would have been a loser compared to the Titan III.
The S-1C-TLB study replaced the lower stage of the Saturn 1B with a
similar diameter stage with two F1 engines rather than one. The idea
resurfaced in one of the 1990s moonbase studies and the Comet launcher
which was essentially an updated Saturn V core with two or four
liquid fuel strap on boosters. Keeping both lines open could give you
the option of the occasional very heavy launch.
Anthony |
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| Derek Lyons |
Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 10:21 am |
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"Jorge R. Frank" <jrfrank@ibm-pc.borg> wrote:
Quote: It's interesting the Griffin in a speech a year or so ago pointed out
that for the money spent on the Shuttle, NASA could have had a modest
Skylab-type space-station program and continued to fly one or two
Apollo missions to the moon every year. And then heavy-lift capability
(the Saturn V) would still be available today.
Griffin was mistaken. As much as I disagree with Jeffrey Bell most of
the time, he wrote a good article dissecting Griffin's numbers and logic.
Do you have a link to that Jorge?
D.
--
Touch-twice life. Eat. Drink. Laugh.
http://derekl1963.livejournal.com/
-Resolved: To be more temperate in my postings.
Oct 5th, 2004 JDL |
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| Derek Lyons |
Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 10:23 am |
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simberg.interglobal@org.trash (Rand Simberg) wrote:
Quote: Saturn IB was born of the moon program, but something like it (an
improved Saturn I... Saturn C-2 or whatever) would have followed
anyway. But von Braun's Saturn family was already on the drawing
boards...
Where it would have likely remained, absent the need to beat the
Russians to the moon.
Maybe, maybe not. Kennedy created a deadline where none previously
existed, but NASA was already planning to head to the moon.
D.
--
Touch-twice life. Eat. Drink. Laugh.
http://derekl1963.livejournal.com/
-Resolved: To be more temperate in my postings.
Oct 5th, 2004 JDL |
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