THE TRAVELER'S FORECAST 03/01/08

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Petra

Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2008 5:43 pm

Guest

THE TRAVELER'S FORECAST 03/01/08 - 03/15/08

PRESENTED BY - THE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH CENTRE (EPRC)
(Terms & conditions of use are listed below)

NORTH AMERICAN DESTINATIONS

39.2N -108.4W 2.0 - 3.5 N. of CLIFTON, CO
39.5N -111.2W 2.0 - 3.5 S/E of MOUNT PLEASANT, UT
40.6N -106.6W 2.0 - 3.5 NE of STEAMBOAT SPRINGS, CO
42.2N -120.3W 2.0 - 3.5 LAKEVIEW, OR
42.5N -120.3W 3.0 - 4.5 OFF SHORE OREGON
44.8N -111.9W 2.0 - 3.5 WEST YELLOWSTONE, MT
45.2N -120.1W 2.0 - 3.5 S. of CONDON, OR
47.7N -120.3W 2.0 - 3.5 W. of ENTIAT, WA
52.7N -169.7W 3.5 - 4.5 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIANS
62.2N -141.8W 3.2 - 5.4 WRANGELL-ST ELIAS NATL PARK, AK

CENTRAL AMERICAN DESTINATIONS

10.0N -70.0W 4.0 - 5.3 SO of CARORA, VENEZUELA
12.0N -86.0W 2.0 - 3.7 CERA del volcan TELICA, NICARAGUA
14.0N -90.0W 3.5 - 4.7 FRENTE a GUATEMALA
16.0N -96.0W 3.5 - 4.7 SUROESTE de CRUCECITA, MEXICO
17.0N -99.0W 3.5 - 4.7 al NORESTE de ACAPULCO, MEXICO
19.0N -68.0W 3.4 - 5.5 N/E SANTO DOMINGO, PUERTO RICO
28.0N -112.0W 3.5 - 4.5 OFF SHORE GUAYMAS, MX (GULF OF CA)

SOUTH AMERICAN DESTINATIONS

-7.0S -79.0W 3.5 - 4.5 CHEPEN-CHICLAYO, PERU
-14.0S -76.0W 4.0 - 5.4 ICA-PISCO-CHINCHA ALTA, PERU
-16.0S -74.0W 4.0 - 5.0 S of CHALA, PERU
-18.0S -73.0W 4.0 - 5.0 OFF SHORE ARICA, PERU
-32.0S -71.0W 4.0 - 5.0 N of LA LIGUA, CHILE

FAR EASTERN/EASTERN PACIFIC DESTINATIONS

28.0N 127.5E 4.0 - 5.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS
28.5N 139.5E 4.0 - 5.0 BONIN ISLANDS
30.0N 79.0E 3.8 - 4.8 E of KAINUR, INDIA
30.0N 84.0E 3.8 - 4.8 XIZANG, CHINA
30.0N 143.0E 4.0 - 5.3 SO of HONSHU, JAPAN
40.0N 75.0E 4.0 - 5.0 ULUGQAT, CHINA
43.0N 147.0E 3.5 - 5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN

SOUTH SEAS/ISLAND DESTINATIONS

11.0N 94.0E 4.0 - 5.0 SE PORT BLAIR, ADAMAN ISLANDS
12.5N 144.0E 4.0 - 5.0 GUAM
18.0N 148.0E 4.0 - 5.0 NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
20.0N -156.0W 3.0 - 4.5 OFF SHORE PUAKO, HAWAII
21.0N 145.5E 4.0 - 5.0 VOLCANO ISLANDS
-7.5S 123.5E 4.0 - 5.0 FLORES ISLAND AREA
-9.0S 158.0E 4.0 - 5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
-30.0S 118.0E 2.0 - 3.5 N of BONNIE ROCK, (W.A) AUSTRALIA
-39.0S 175.5E 3.0 - 4.0 NE of OHAKUNE, NO ISLAND, NZ
-44.4S 167.3E 3.0 - 4.5 NW of MILFORD SOUND, SO ISLAND, NZ
74.0N 14.0E 3.0 - 4.2 NORWEGIAN SEA

EUROPEAN DESTINATIONS

34.0N 27.0E 3.0 - 4.0 SO of KARPATHOS, GREECE
36.0N 21.0E 3.0 - 4.0 PARALIA VELIKAS, GREECE
37.0N 29.0E 3.0 - 4.0 CAMELI (DENIZLI) TURKEY
37.0N 72.0E 3.8 - 4.8 CHITRAL, PAKISTAN
37.0N 35.0E 3.5 - 4.5 ADANA PROVINCE, TURKEY
37.5N 14.0E 3.0 - 4.0 CENTRAL SICILY, ITALY
38.0N 73.5E 3.8 - 5.4 S/E MURGAB, TAJIKISTAN
39.0N 21.0E 3.0 - 4.0 S of KORONISSIA, GREECE
43.0N 0.00E 2.5 - 4.5 PYRENEES, FRANCE
46.0N 26.0E 3.0 - 4.5 ICAFALAU, ROMANIA

SEISMIC WATCH AREA

0.0N 98.0E SOUTHWARD TO -5.0S - 102.0E
6.0 - 7.5 SUMATRA/SUNDA ARC REGION

THE ABOVE CAPTIONED TRAVELERS FORECAST IS BEING RELEASED BY
THE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH CENTRE, HOLLISTER, CA
WHICH IS OWNED AND OPERATED BY PETRA CHALLUS & DON ECK

ALL LOCATIONS INCLUDE A 160KM RADIUS WITH A 65% PROBABILITY.
WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THIS FORECAST NOR DO WE TAKE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR ANY ACTIONS TAKEN AS A RESULT OF THE RELEASE OF THIS INFORMATION
OR ACTIONS TAKEN BY ANYONE RECEIVING THIS FORECAST.

IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION COUNSEL
WE ARE NOT INCLUDING ANY FORECASTS FOR THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA.

THIS INFORMATION CAN BE TRANSMITTED BY THE MEDIA. FUTURE FORECASTS
MUST
BE ARRANGED AND APPROVED IN ADVANCE BY EITHER MS. CHALLUS OR MR. ECK.

REMEMBER, YOU CAN SURVIVE AN EARTHQUAKE IF YOU PREPARE. WE STRONGLY
RECOMMEND EARLY PREPARATION AND THAT EVERYONE CARRY AN EARTHQUAKE
SAFETY WHISTLE.

Contact Information:
Don Eck donleck@sbcglobal.net
Petra Challus petrasrcf@hotmail.com

To Make Research Donations Contact Don Eck

Guest

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 12:52 am

In article <2eb6dc53-1898-4c8f-b465-f78d0bd5ada3@e23g2000prf.googlegroups.com>,
Petra <petrasrcf@hotmail.com> got laughed at for:

Quote:

THE TRAVELER'S FORECAST 03/01/08 - 03/15/08

44.8N -111.9W 2.0 - 3.5 WEST YELLOWSTONE, MT

It'd be surprised only if there wasn't a quake near there (160km
radius? ROFLMFAO!!!), Petra. Have you notified the press that
there might be a 2.0 near Yellowstone? I'm sure they'll give
it all the attention it deserves.

Quote:

52.7N -169.7W 3.5 - 4.5 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIANS

Again it'd be *extremely* surprising if there wasn't a quake
here. It's a very active area right now and you have a huge
window coupled with a huge radius.

Quote:

THE ABOVE CAPTIONED TRAVELERS FORECAST IS BEING RELEASED BY
THE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH CENTRE, HOLLISTER, CA
WHICH IS OWNED AND OPERATED BY PETRA CHALLUS & DON ECK

I'm so impressed. (snicker)

Quote:

ALL LOCATIONS INCLUDE A 160KM RADIUS WITH A 65% PROBABILITY.

Two weeks and 160km...once again I have to laugh at your
useless predictions.

Quote:

WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THIS FORECAST NOR DO WE TAKE RESPONSIBILITY

Yeah, of course not.

Quote:

IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION COUNSEL
WE ARE NOT INCLUDING ANY FORECASTS FOR THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA.

Nice excuse. Too bad most of us know better.

Quote:

THIS INFORMATION CAN BE TRANSMITTED BY THE MEDIA.

Like you could stop them?

Quote:

FUTURE FORECASTS MUST BE ARRANGED AND APPROVED IN ADVANCE BY
EITHER MS. CHALLUS OR MR. ECK.

For payment?

Quote:

REMEMBER, YOU CAN SURVIVE AN EARTHQUAKE IF YOU PREPARE.

Bullshit, there's always an element of random chance involved. No
preperation will allow one to survive every quake.

Quote:

WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND EARLY PREPARATION AND THAT EVERYONE CARRY
AN EARTHQUAKE SAFETY WHISTLE.

And, of course, buy some quake insurance from Petra too.

Quote:

To Make Research Donations Contact Don Eck

Not a chance.

Petra

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 1:37 am

Guest

On Feb 27, 11:02 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:

Quote:

Petra <petras...@hotmail.com> wrote in news:2eb6dc53-1898-4c8f-b465-
f78d0bd5a...@e23g2000prf.googlegroups.com:

IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION COUNSEL
WE ARE NOT INCLUDING ANY FORECASTS FOR THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA.

Perhaps you mean "California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation
Council"? as there does not appear to be a "California Earthquake
Prediction Council".

Since the question regards legality of issuing predictions in
California, I've been scouring the California legal code. I have
found only a few mentions of the evaluation council.

8657(c) of the Government Code discusses responsibility and
immunities of members and those being evaluated. In part, it
says,

The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation
Council, an advisory committee established pursuant
to Section 8590 of this chapter....

Interestingly, 8590 no longer exists. Well, it does, but it is
now the "Firefighting Thermal Imaging Equipment Act of 2001".

2800-2804 of the Public Resources Code mentions it several
times, but this code appears to deal with the "Parkfield
Experiment".

Finally, the evaluation council is mentioned in 11126 of the
Government Code, but it only concerns not permitting them to
have closed sessions when doing evaluations of predictions.

Since those are the ONLY mentions of the council in the legal
code, I have serious doubts that there is anything which
prevents anyone from making predictions in California.

Since IANAL, I'd be glad to be proved wrong.

Brian
--http://www.skywise711.com- Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ:http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions":http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

Brian,

Thank you kindly for your time in research, but research is not the
same as "their word" and when they tell me what they will or won't
allow, I know my marching orders and I follow them to the letter of
the law. I'm sure you would do the same.

Also, I'm sure you're more than aware that in matters of the law,
legal precedents are made frequently and opinions of those in the
position of power can be made outside of the written word at any
time. It's rather routine.

So, I'll do as I'm told and then we'll all be happy.

Petra

Skywise

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 3:02 am

Guest

Petra <petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote in news:2eb6dc53-1898-4c8f-b465-
f78d0bd5ada3@e23g2000prf.googlegroups.com:

Quote:

IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION COUNSEL
WE ARE NOT INCLUDING ANY FORECASTS FOR THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA.

Perhaps you mean "California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation
Council"? as there does not appear to be a "California Earthquake
Prediction Council".

Since the question regards legality of issuing predictions in
California, I've been scouring the California legal code. I have
found only a few mentions of the evaluation council.

8657(c) of the Government Code discusses responsibility and
immunities of members and those being evaluated. In part, it
says,

The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation
Council, an advisory committee established pursuant
to Section 8590 of this chapter....

Interestingly, 8590 no longer exists. Well, it does, but it is
now the "Firefighting Thermal Imaging Equipment Act of 2001".

2800-2804 of the Public Resources Code mentions it several
times, but this code appears to deal with the "Parkfield
Experiment".

Finally, the evaluation council is mentioned in 11126 of the
Government Code, but it only concerns not permitting them to
have closed sessions when doing evaluations of predictions.

Since those are the ONLY mentions of the council in the legal
code, I have serious doubts that there is anything which
prevents anyone from making predictions in California.

Since IANAL, I'd be glad to be proved wrong.

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

Guest

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 5:17 am

In article <13scn4o904qbi0f@corp.supernews.com>,
Skywise <into@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:

Quote:

Since the question regards legality of issuing predictions in
California, I've been scouring the California legal code. I have
found only a few mentions of the evaluation council.

I went through the same exercise. With what I found the only
conclusion I could come to is that Petra is using them (whatever
their real name is) as an excuse. There's nothing that would
prevent her from posting predictions for California.

Guest

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 11:55 am

In article <041bee84-4f31-415c-b8a8-ce11624eda42@i29g2000prf.googlegroups.com>,
Petra <petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote:

Quote:

Thank you kindly for your time in research, but research is not the
same as "their word" and when they tell me what they will or won't
allow,

They have no power to "allow" or not, Petra.

Quote:

I know my marching orders and I follow them to the letter of
the law.

Really? What law is that?

Mike Williams

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 12:22 pm

Guest

<ellis@no.spam> wrote in message news:1204214106.330465@no.spam...

Quote:

In article
041bee84-4f31-415c-b8a8-ce11624eda42@i29g2000prf.googlegroups.com>,
Petra <petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote:

Thank you kindly for your time in research, but research is not the
same as "their word" and when they tell me what they will or won't
allow,

They have no power to "allow" or not, Petra.

I know my marching orders and I follow them to the letter of
the law.

Really? What law is that?

As you've probably figured out by now, Petra is a real moving target. You
can't pin her down on anything. She'll change the subject, or transmute the
subject so that your argument no longer applies. She's real squirmy.

Mike Williams

Guest

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 3:41 pm

In article <OcBxj.13765$J41.4414@newssvr14.news.prodigy.net>,
Mike Williams <miklwlms@pacbell.net> wrote:

Quote:

I've certainly noticed the endless stream of excuses and the lack of
any real facts. BTW, did you notice her amazing prediction of a 2.0
"near" West Yellowstone? Stunning Wink

Skywise

Posted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 12:14 am

Guest

Petra <petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote in news:041bee84-4f31-415c-b8a8-
ce11624eda42@i29g2000prf.googlegroups.com:

Quote:

Thank you kindly for your time in research, but research is not the
same as "their word" and when they tell me what they will or won't
allow, I know my marching orders and I follow them to the letter of
the law.

Ahem....so, you'd take the word of an authority? Whatever happened
to the creedo, "question authority"?

Yikes.

Quote:

I'm sure you would do the same.

No I wouldn't. I question their authory. Hell, I can't even
verify their existence. That they are mentioned in reputable
places does likely mean they do exist, but confirming that
seems to be as slippery as your logic.

Quote:

Also, I'm sure you're more than aware that in matters of the law,
legal precedents are made frequently and opinions of those in the
position of power can be made outside of the written word at any
time. It's rather routine.

"opinions" are a far cry from enforceable action.

Quote:

So, I'll do as I'm told and then we'll all be happy.

Good Komrade.

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

Guest

Posted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 1:18 am

In article <13sf1l6amvir3af@corp.supernews.com>,
Skywise <into@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:

Quote:

Ahem....so, you'd take the word of an authority? Whatever happened
to the creedo, "question authority"?

Some people only question authority when the authority doesn't
agree with them.

Quote:

Yikes.

Indeed.

Quote:

No I wouldn't. I question their authory. Hell, I can't even
verify their existence.

You mean you don't respect the super-dooper-secret-authority?

Quote:

"opinions" are a far cry from enforceable action.

It appears everybody but Petra knows they have no authority to
enforce anything. I guess some people will use anything as an
excuse for not providing support for claims.

Skywise

Posted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 11:44 pm

Guest

ellis@no.spam () wrote in news:1204262790.176520@no.spam:

Quote:

You mean you don't respect the super-dooper-secret-authority?

Well, I've been known more than once to confront an officer
of the law on their breaking of the law.

Like the guy that parked in the fire lane in front of a store
so he could run in and order a sandwich from the deli. "Excuse
me. I was wondering. If I were to park in the fire lane in
front of a store just to run in and get a sandwich, would I
get a ticket?" "errrrr...<picking jaw up off ground>...yeah?"
"Ok, thank you. Have a nice day!"

Or the guy that drove down the median through the oncoming left
turn lane, slammed on his break to not hit someone, just so he
could bypass the traffic stopped at the light. "Excuse me
officer, I was wondering, I had run through the median like you
did to make the light, would I have gotten a ticket?" "uh...Yes."
"Ok, thank you. Have a nice day!"

And the list of successful arguments with law enforcement
goes on....

So yes, I question authority when common sense, knowledge,
and reason preclude doing so.

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

Hatunen

Posted: Mon Mar 17, 2008 11:53 pm

Guest

Has anyone done a tabulation on these "forecasts"?

On Wed, 27 Feb 2008 19:43:19 -0800 (PST), Petra
<petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote:

Quote:

--
************* DAVE HATUNEN (hatunen@cox.net) *************
* Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
* My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *

Thomas A. Russ

Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 2:43 pm

Guest

Hatunen <hatunen@cox.net> writes:

Quote:

Has anyone done a tabulation on these "forecasts"?

Well, I guess somebody has to.
Using <http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic_circ.html>
Location with 160km radius.

Simple catalog search, no adjustment for aftershocks. etc.
No calculation of base probability for comparison, either.

12 hits
39 misses

Predicted rate: 65%
Actual rate: 23.5%

Quote:

On Wed, 27 Feb 2008 19:43:19 -0800 (PST), Petra
petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote:

THE TRAVELER'S FORECAST 03/01/08 - 03/15/08

PRESENTED BY - THE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH CENTRE (EPRC)
(Terms & conditions of use are listed below)

NORTH AMERICAN DESTINATIONS

39.2N -108.4W 2.0 - 3.5 N. of CLIFTON, CO

Miss.

Quote:

39.5N -111.2W 2.0 - 3.5 S/E of MOUNT PLEASANT, UT

Hit.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 07 1121 40.81 -111.78 10 2.50 153

Quote:

40.6N -106.6W 2.0 - 3.5 NE of STEAMBOAT SPRINGS, CO

Miss.

Quote:

42.2N -120.3W 2.0 - 3.5 LAKEVIEW, OR

Miss.

Quote:

42.5N -120.3W 3.0 - 4.5 OFF SHORE OREGON

Miss.

Quote:

44.8N -111.9W 2.0 - 3.5 WEST YELLOWSTONE, MT

Miss.

Quote:

45.2N -120.1W 2.0 - 3.5 S. of CONDON, OR

Miss.

Quote:

47.7N -120.3W 2.0 - 3.5 W. of ENTIAT, WA

Miss.

Quote:

52.7N -169.7W 3.5 - 4.5 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIANS

Miss. Outside Magnitude range.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 11 1437 52.25 -169.46 37 5.60 52

Quote:

62.2N -141.8W 3.2 - 5.4 WRANGELL-ST ELIAS NATL PARK, AK

Miss.

Quote:

CENTRAL AMERICAN DESTINATIONS

10.0N -70.0W 4.0 - 5.3 SO of CARORA, VENEZUELA

Miss.

Quote:

12.0N -86.0W 2.0 - 3.7 CERA del volcan TELICA, NICARAGUA

Miss.

Quote:

14.0N -90.0W 3.5 - 4.7 FRENTE a GUATEMALA

Miss.

Quote:

16.0N -96.0W 3.5 - 4.7 SUROESTE de CRUCECITA, MEXICO

Miss.

Quote:

17.0N -99.0W 3.5 - 4.7 al NORESTE de ACAPULCO, MEXICO

Hit.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 01 0444 17.23 -99.87 47 4.50 96
2008 03 13 0746 16.36 -99.09 26 4.10 71

Quote:

19.0N -68.0W 3.4 - 5.5 N/E SANTO DOMINGO, PUERTO RICO

Hit.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 13 0538 17.85 -68.43 41 3.70 134

Quote:

28.0N -112.0W 3.5 - 4.5 OFF SHORE GUAYMAS, MX (GULF OF
CA)

Miss.

Quote:

SOUTH AMERICAN DESTINATIONS

-7.0S -79.0W 3.5 - 4.5 CHEPEN-CHICLAYO, PERU

Miss. Outside Magnitude range.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 01 0112 -7.76 -77.77 52 4.60 159

Quote:

-14.0S -76.0W 4.0 - 5.4 ICA-PISCO-CHINCHA ALTA, PERU

Hit.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 03 1552 -13.56 -76.79 30 4.50 98
2008 03 08 2351 -13.24 -76.53 33 4.80 102

Quote:

-16.0S -74.0W 4.0 - 5.0 S of CHALA, PERU

Hit.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 11 0047 -16.48 -73.53 28 4.30 72

Quote:

-18.0S -73.0W 4.0 - 5.0 OFF SHORE ARICA, PERU

Miss.

Quote:

-32.0S -71.0W 4.0 - 5.0 N of LA LIGUA, CHILE

Miss. Outside magnitude range.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 03 1309 -32.55 -71.72 32 2.80 91
2008 03 11 0452 -33.22 -70.38 116 3.50 147

Quote:

FAR EASTERN/EASTERN PACIFIC DESTINATIONS

28.0N 127.5E 4.0 - 5.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS

Hit.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 07 1745 28.42 127.84 191 4.20 57

Quote:

28.5N 139.5E 4.0 - 5.0 BONIN ISLANDS

Hit.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 02 2254 27.89 140.25 441 4.20 100

Quote:

30.0N 79.0E 3.8 - 4.8 E of KAINUR, INDIA

Miss.

Quote:

30.0N 84.0E 3.8 - 4.8 XIZANG, CHINA

Miss.

Quote:

30.0N 143.0E 4.0 - 5.3 SO of HONSHU, JAPAN

Hit.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 05 1914 28.99 142.42 1 4.50 125

Quote:

40.0N 75.0E 4.0 - 5.0 ULUGQAT, CHINA

Miss.

Quote:

43.0N 147.0E 3.5 - 5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN

Hit.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 03 1435 44.21 146.80 91 4.70 134
2008 03 03 2057 43.49 145.91 76 4.30 103
2008 03 13 0841 43.04 146.54 54 5.60 37

Quote:

SOUTH SEAS/ISLAND DESTINATIONS

11.0N 94.0E 4.0 - 5.0 SE PORT BLAIR, ADAMAN ISLANDS

Miss.

Quote:

12.5N 144.0E 4.0 - 5.0 GUAM

Hit. Note one is outside magnitude range, one inside.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 03 0355 12.83 144.31 60 5.10 49
2008 03 03 1318 12.06 144.36 10 4.30 62

Quote:

18.0N 148.0E 4.0 - 5.0 NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS

Miss.

Quote:

20.0N -156.0W 3.0 - 4.5 OFF SHORE PUAKO, HAWAII

Miss.

Quote:

21.0N 145.5E 4.0 - 5.0 VOLCANO ISLANDS

Hit.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 14 0058 21.72 144.81 76 4.90 106

Quote:

-7.5S 123.5E 4.0 - 5.0 FLORES ISLAND AREA

Hit.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 05 1717 -8.16 123.67 130 4.00 75

Quote:

-9.0S 158.0E 4.0 - 5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

Miss.

Quote:

-30.0S 118.0E 2.0 - 3.5 N of BONNIE ROCK, (W.A)
AUSTRALIA

Miss.

Quote:

-39.0S 175.5E 3.0 - 4.0 NE of OHAKUNE, NO ISLAND, NZ

Miss.

Quote:

-44.4S 167.3E 3.0 - 4.5 NW of MILFORD SOUND, SO ISLAND,
NZ

Miss.

Quote:

74.0N 14.0E 3.0 - 4.2 NORWEGIAN SEA

Miss.

Quote:

EUROPEAN DESTINATIONS

34.0N 27.0E 3.0 - 4.0 SO of KARPATHOS, GREECE

Miss.

Quote:

36.0N 21.0E 3.0 - 4.0 PARALIA VELIKAS, GREECE

Miss. Ouside magnitude range.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 04 0026 36.24 21.75 10 4.70 72
2008 03 04 0053 36.31 21.91 6 4.60 88
2008 03 04 1325 36.20 21.91 47 4.60 84
2008 03 07 0844 36.15 22.10 52 4.60 100
2008 03 07 1803 36.32 21.95 39 92
2008 03 07 2028 36.56 22.01 69 4.70 110
2008 03 14 0710 36.20 22.02 30 4.90 94

This was an interesting miss, so I looked a bit more closely at the data
from this region. Using the prediction parameters, there were 1597
matching earthquakes from 1973 to 2008. Using an incredibly naive
method of just counting the number of 15-day (end-to-end) periods, and
dividing, one would actually expect about TWO (1.82) magnitude 3-4
quakes in any 15-day period.

Quote:

37.0N 29.0E 3.0 - 4.0 CAMELI (DENIZLI) TURKEY

Miss.

Quote:

37.0N 72.0E 3.8 - 4.8 CHITRAL, PAKISTAN

Miss. Outside magnitude range.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 05 1943 37.32 72.32 207 3.60 44

Quote:

37.0N 35.0E 3.5 - 4.5 ADANA PROVINCE, TURKEY

Miss.

Quote:

37.5N 14.0E 3.0 - 4.0 CENTRAL SICILY, ITALY

Miss.

Quote:

38.0N 73.5E 3.8 - 5.4 S/E MURGAB, TAJIKISTAN

Miss. Outside magnitude range.
Date Time Lat Long Dep Mag Distance
------------ ---- ----- ------- --- ---- --------
2008 03 05 1943 37.32 72.32 207 3.60 44

Quote:

39.0N 21.0E 3.0 - 4.0 S of KORONISSIA, GREECE

Miss.

Quote:

43.0N 0.00E 2.5 - 4.5 PYRENEES, FRANCE

Miss.

Quote:

46.0N 26.0E 3.0 - 4.5 ICAFALAU, ROMANIA

Miss.

Quote:

SEISMIC WATCH AREA

0.0N 98.0E SOUTHWARD TO -5.0S - 102.0E
6.0 - 7.5 SUMATRA/SUNDA ARC REGION

Miss.

Quote:

THE ABOVE CAPTIONED TRAVELERS FORECAST IS BEING RELEASED BY
THE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH CENTRE, HOLLISTER, CA
WHICH IS OWNED AND OPERATED BY PETRA CHALLUS & DON ECK

ALL LOCATIONS INCLUDE A 160KM RADIUS WITH A 65% PROBABILITY.
WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THIS FORECAST NOR DO WE TAKE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR ANY ACTIONS TAKEN AS A RESULT OF THE RELEASE OF THIS INFORMATION
OR ACTIONS TAKEN BY ANYONE RECEIVING THIS FORECAST.

IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION COUNSEL
WE ARE NOT INCLUDING ANY FORECASTS FOR THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA.

THIS INFORMATION CAN BE TRANSMITTED BY THE MEDIA. FUTURE FORECASTS
MUST
BE ARRANGED AND APPROVED IN ADVANCE BY EITHER MS. CHALLUS OR MR. ECK.

REMEMBER, YOU CAN SURVIVE AN EARTHQUAKE IF YOU PREPARE. WE STRONGLY
RECOMMEND EARLY PREPARATION AND THAT EVERYONE CARRY AN EARTHQUAKE
SAFETY WHISTLE.

Contact Information:
Don Eck donleck@sbcglobal.net
Petra Challus petrasrcf@hotmail.com

To Make Research Donations Contact Don Eck

--
************* DAVE HATUNEN (hatunen@cox.net) *************
* Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
* My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *

--
Thomas A. Russ, USC/Information Sciences Institute

Hatunen

Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 3:28 pm

Guest

On 20 Mar 2008 12:43:38 -0700, tar@sevak.isi.edu (Thomas A. Russ)
wrote:

Quote:

Hatunen <hatunen@cox.net> writes:

Has anyone done a tabulation on these "forecasts"?

Well, I guess somebody has to.
Using <http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic_circ.html
Location with 160km radius.

Simple catalog search, no adjustment for aftershocks. etc.
No calculation of base probability for comparison, either.

12 hits
39 misses

Predicted rate: 65%
Actual rate: 23.5%

Now, isn't that interesting. Perhaps Petra can explain what went
wrong.

[...]

Quote:

Contact Information:
Don Eck donleck@sbcglobal.net
Petra Challus petrasrcf@hotmail.com

To Make Research Donations Contact Don Eck

Yeah Sure. I'll donate right away...

--
************* DAVE HATUNEN (hatunen@cox.net) *************
* Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
* My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *

Hatunen

Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 3:45 pm

Guest

On Thu, 20 Mar 2008 13:28:28 -0700, Hatunen <hatunen@cox.net>
wrote:

Quote:

On 20 Mar 2008 12:43:38 -0700, tar@sevak.isi.edu (Thomas A. Russ)
wrote:

Hatunen <hatunen@cox.net> writes:

Has anyone done a tabulation on these "forecasts"?

Well, I guess somebody has to.
Using <http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic_circ.html
Location with 160km radius.

Simple catalog search, no adjustment for aftershocks. etc.
No calculation of base probability for comparison, either.

12 hits
39 misses

Predicted rate: 65%
Actual rate: 23.5%

Now, isn't that interesting. Perhaps Petra can explain what went
wrong.

Come to think of it, where is Petra? Her last post seems to have
been on 9 March.

--
************* DAVE HATUNEN (hatunen@cox.net) *************
* Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
* My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *

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