Come to think of it, where is Petra? Her last post seems to have
been on 9 March.

Come to think of it, where is Petra? Her last post seems to have
been on 9 March.

Sulking in the desert with her backpack wondering where it all
went wrong?

Well, I guess somebody has to.
Using <http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic_circ.html
Location with 160km radius.

Simple catalog search, no adjustment for aftershocks. etc.
No calculation of base probability for comparison, either.

12 hits
39 misses

Predicted rate: 65%
Actual rate: 23.5%

39.5N -111.2W 2.0 - 3.5 S/E of MOUNT PLEASANT, UT

17.0N -99.0W 3.5 - 4.7 al NORESTE de ACAPULCO, MEXICO

19.0N -68.0W 3.4 - 5.5 N/E SANTO DOMINGO, PUERTO RICO

-14.0S -76.0W 4.0 - 5.4 ICA-PISCO-CHINCHA ALTA, PERU

-16.0S -74.0W 4.0 - 5.0 S of CHALA, PERU

28.0N 127.5E 4.0 - 5.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS

28.5N 139.5E 4.0 - 5.0 BONIN ISLANDS

30.0N 143.0E 4.0 - 5.3 SO of HONSHU, JAPAN

43.0N 147.0E 3.5 - 5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN

12.5N 144.0E 4.0 - 5.0 GUAM

21.0N 145.5E 4.0 - 5.0 VOLCANO ISLANDS

-7.5S 123.5E 4.0 - 5.0 FLORES ISLAND AREA

Discussion: Looking at the numbers, the hits don't seem to be in areas
where the predicted level of such earthquakes are particularly rare.

In article <13u6a1saq6rcvb8@corp.supernews.com>,
Skywise <into@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:

Come to think of it, where is Petra? Her last post seems to have
been on 9 March.

Top Ten Reasons Petra Isn't Posting:

Sulking in the desert with her backpack wondering where it all
went wrong?

Spent all day in energy vortex and is too dizzy to type.

In article <ymiprtnodgx.fsf@blackcat.isi.edu>,
Thomas A. Russ <tar@sevak.isi.edu> wrote:

Discussion: Looking at the numbers, the hits don't seem to be in areas
where the predicted level of such earthquakes are particularly rare.

Would it be worthwhile doing the same analysis for the misses?

t...@sevak.isi.edu (Thomas A. Russ) writes:

Following up a bit on the hits.
For each hit I looked at the number of earthquakes in that area and
magnitude range for the period 1973-2008 and just 2008. For 1973 to
2008 that comes to roughly 12,900 days or 857 15-day periods. In 2008
there were 75 days through March 15th or 5 15-day periods.

Anyway, the number of earthquakes for those time periods are shown below
each of the successful predictions.

Well, I guess somebody has to.
Using <http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic_circ.html
Location with 160km radius.

Simple catalog search, no adjustment for aftershocks. etc.
No calculation of base probability for comparison, either.

12 hits
39 misses

Predicted rate: 65%
Actual rate: 23.5%
39.5N -111.2W 2.0 - 3.5 S/E of MOUNT PLEASANT, UT

275 1973-2008
2 2008

17.0N -99.0W 3.5 - 4.7 al NORESTE de ACAPULCO, MEXICO

2863 1973-2008
72 2008
(!!!!!)

19.0N -68.0W 3.4 - 5.5 N/E SANTO DOMINGO, PUERTO RICO

1304 1973-2008
24 2008

-14.0S -76.0W 4.0 - 5.4 ICA-PISCO-CHINCHA ALTA, PERU

425 1973-2008
5 2008

-16.0S -74.0W 4.0 - 5.0 S of CHALA, PERU

415 1973-2008
4 2008

28.0N 127.5E 4.0 - 5.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS

310 1973-2008
3 2008

28.5N 139.5E 4.0 - 5.0 BONIN ISLANDS

860 1973-2008
7 2008

30.0N 143.0E 4.0 - 5.3 SO of HONSHU, JAPAN

616 1973-2008
11 2008

43.0N 147.0E 3.5 - 5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN

1987 1973-2008
9 2008

12.5N 144.0E 4.0 - 5.0 GUAM

1127 1973-2008
3 2008

21.0N 145.5E 4.0 - 5.0 VOLCANO ISLANDS

281 1973-2008
5 2008

-7.5S 123.5E 4.0 - 5.0 FLORES ISLAND AREA

447 1973-2008
4 2008

===============

Discussion: Looking at the numbers, the hits don't seem to be in areas
where the predicted level of such earthquakes are particularly rare.
In fact, out of the 12 predictions, the first 75 days of 2008 had a
total of 150 earthquakes in the geographic and magnitude parameters.
Now about half of them came from one event, so this overstates things a
bit, but still, the median number of earthquakes per successful
prediction was 5, which coincidentally happens to be same as the number
of consecutive 15-day periods in 2008.

The bottom line appears to be that the successes were for high
likelihood events, where any 15-day period would have had a successful
result. So looking at the historic seismicity would do just as well, so
it isn't at all clear why this particular 15-day period was chosen.

It is really hard to see anything significant in this set of successes.
It would be interesting to analyze the failed predictions as well, but I
just don't have the energy for that right now.

--
Thomas A. Russ, USC/Information Sciences Institute

THE TRAVELER'S FORECAST 03/01/08 - 03/15/08

PRESENTED BY - THE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH CENTRE (EPRC)
(Terms & conditions of use are listed below)

NORTH AMERICAN DESTINATIONS

39.2N -108.4W 2.0 - 3.5 N. of CLIFTON, CO
39.5N -111.2W 2.0 - 3.5 S/E of MOUNT PLEASANT, UT
40.6N -106.6W 2.0 - 3.5 NE of STEAMBOAT SPRINGS, CO
42.2N -120.3W 2.0 - 3.5 LAKEVIEW, OR
42.5N -120.3W 3.0 - 4.5 OFF SHORE OREGON
44.8N -111.9W 2.0 - 3.5 WEST YELLOWSTONE, MT
45.2N -120.1W 2.0 - 3.5 S. of CONDON, OR
47.7N -120.3W 2.0 - 3.5 W. of ENTIAT, WA
52.7N -169.7W 3.5 - 4.5 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIANS
62.2N -141.8W 3.2 - 5.4 WRANGELL-ST ELIAS NATL PARK, AK

CENTRAL AMERICAN DESTINATIONS

10.0N -70.0W 4.0 - 5.3 SO of CARORA, VENEZUELA
12.0N -86.0W 2.0 - 3.7 CERA del volcan TELICA, NICARAGUA
14.0N -90.0W 3.5 - 4.7 FRENTE a GUATEMALA
16.0N -96.0W 3.5 - 4.7 SUROESTE de CRUCECITA, MEXICO
17.0N -99.0W 3.5 - 4.7 al NORESTE de ACAPULCO, MEXICO
19.0N -68.0W 3.4 - 5.5 N/E SANTO DOMINGO, PUERTO RICO
28.0N -112.0W 3.5 - 4.5 OFF SHORE GUAYMAS, MX (GULF OF CA)

SOUTH AMERICAN DESTINATIONS

-7.0S -79.0W 3.5 - 4.5 CHEPEN-CHICLAYO, PERU
-14.0S -76.0W 4.0 - 5.4 ICA-PISCO-CHINCHA ALTA, PERU
-16.0S -74.0W 4.0 - 5.0 S of CHALA, PERU
-18.0S -73.0W 4.0 - 5.0 OFF SHORE ARICA, PERU
-32.0S -71.0W 4.0 - 5.0 N of LA LIGUA, CHILE

FAR EASTERN/EASTERN PACIFIC DESTINATIONS

28.0N 127.5E 4.0 - 5.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS
28.5N 139.5E 4.0 - 5.0 BONIN ISLANDS
30.0N 79.0E 3.8 - 4.8 E of KAINUR, INDIA
30.0N 84.0E 3.8 - 4.8 XIZANG, CHINA
30.0N 143.0E 4.0 - 5.3 SO of HONSHU, JAPAN
40.0N 75.0E 4.0 - 5.0 ULUGQAT, CHINA
43.0N 147.0E 3.5 - 5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN

SOUTH SEAS/ISLAND DESTINATIONS

11.0N 94.0E 4.0 - 5.0 SE PORT BLAIR, ADAMAN ISLANDS
12.5N 144.0E 4.0 - 5.0 GUAM
18.0N 148.0E 4.0 - 5.0 NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
20.0N -156.0W 3.0 - 4.5 OFF SHORE PUAKO, HAWAII
21.0N 145.5E 4.0 - 5.0 VOLCANO ISLANDS
-7.5S 123.5E 4.0 - 5.0 FLORES ISLAND AREA
-9.0S 158.0E 4.0 - 5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
-30.0S 118.0E 2.0 - 3.5 N of BONNIE ROCK, (W.A) AUSTRALIA
-39.0S 175.5E 3.0 - 4.0 NE of OHAKUNE, NO ISLAND, NZ
-44.4S 167.3E 3.0 - 4.5 NW of MILFORD SOUND, SO ISLAND, NZ
74.0N 14.0E 3.0 - 4.2 NORWEGIAN SEA


EUROPEAN DESTINATIONS

34.0N 27.0E 3.0 - 4.0 SO of KARPATHOS, GREECE
36.0N 21.0E 3.0 - 4.0 PARALIA VELIKAS, GREECE
37.0N 29.0E 3.0 - 4.0 CAMELI (DENIZLI) TURKEY
37.0N 72.0E 3.8 - 4.8 CHITRAL, PAKISTAN
37.0N 35.0E 3.5 - 4.5 ADANA PROVINCE, TURKEY
37.5N 14.0E 3.0 - 4.0 CENTRAL SICILY, ITALY
38.0N 73.5E 3.8 - 5.4 S/E MURGAB, TAJIKISTAN
39.0N 21.0E 3.0 - 4.0 S of KORONISSIA, GREECE
43.0N 0.00E 2.5 - 4.5 PYRENEES, FRANCE
46.0N 26.0E 3.0 - 4.5 ICAFALAU, ROMANIA

SEISMIC WATCH AREA

0.0N 98.0E SOUTHWARD TO -5.0S - 102.0E
6.0 - 7.5 SUMATRA/SUNDA ARC REGION


THE ABOVE CAPTIONED TRAVELERS FORECAST IS BEING RELEASED BY
THE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH CENTRE, HOLLISTER, CA
WHICH IS OWNED AND OPERATED BY PETRA CHALLUS & DON ECK

ALL LOCATIONS INCLUDE A 160KM RADIUS WITH A 65% PROBABILITY.
WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THIS FORECAST NOR DO WE TAKE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR ANY ACTIONS TAKEN AS A RESULT OF THE RELEASE OF THIS INFORMATION
OR ACTIONS TAKEN BY ANYONE RECEIVING THIS FORECAST.

IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION COUNSEL
WE ARE NOT INCLUDING ANY FORECASTS FOR THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA.

THIS INFORMATION CAN BE TRANSMITTED BY THE MEDIA. FUTURE FORECASTS
MUST
BE ARRANGED AND APPROVED IN ADVANCE BY EITHER MS. CHALLUS OR MR. ECK.

REMEMBER, YOU CAN SURVIVE AN EARTHQUAKE IF YOU PREPARE. WE STRONGLY
RECOMMEND EARLY PREPARATION AND THAT EVERYONE CARRY AN EARTHQUAKE
SAFETY WHISTLE.

Contact Information:
Don Eck donleck@sbcglobal.net
Petra Challus petrasrcf@hotmail.com

To Make Research Donations Contact Don Eck