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Science Forum Index » Geology - Earthquakes Forum » Precision in Magnitude
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| Charles |
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 11:20 pm |
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Poking around on Google Earth I find the point of an earthquake
Date: 1973/8/20
Magnitude: 3.89999999999999991118
that's pretty precise, it seems to me |
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| Petra |
Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2008 6:38 pm |
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On Jan 12, 7:20 pm, Charles <ckr...@SPAMTRAP.west.net> wrote:
Quote: Poking around on Google Earth I find the point of an earthquake
Date: 1973/8/20
Magnitude: 3.89999999999999991118
that's pretty precise, it seems to me
Hi Charles,
I agree, it is precise. But is the location? During the past year
I've seen epcienters changed as often as three times and it makes one
wonder sometimes, how close is close?
And there's that other bit where I found a quake I was looking for in
a 160km radius was actually placed elsewhere in a search I performed
for quakes in a 1000km radius.
It leaves one shaking their head for sure.
Petra |
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| Timberwoof |
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 1:00 am |
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In article
<2724dfbe-5f89-4129-bb23-ab2758964af8@s8g2000prg.googlegroups.com>,
Petra <petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: On Jan 12, 7:20 pm, Charles <ckr...@SPAMTRAP.west.net> wrote:
Poking around on Google Earth I find the point of an earthquake
Date: 1973/8/20
Magnitude: 3.89999999999999991118
that's pretty precise, it seems to me
Hi Charles,
I agree, it is precise. But is the location? During the past year
I've seen epcienters changed as often as three times and it makes one
wonder sometimes, how close is close?
And there's that other bit where I found a quake I was looking for in
a 160km radius was actually placed elsewhere in a search I performed
for quakes in a 1000km radius.
It leaves one shaking their head for sure.
Petra
That magnitude looks like a rounding-off error to me. The problem is
that 3.9, when expressed in base-2 floating-point notation, is a
repeating "decimal". When the resulting truncated form is converted back
into base-10 and not properly rounded off, it ends up looking like you
see here. My recommendation: Ignore nineteen of the digits and round it
to 3.9.
If you read up on the techniques used to calculated magnitude, you'll
see that there are many sources of error which wipe out any reasonable
expectation of seeing many significant digits. Perhaps an email to
Google asking them to fix the problem would be in order.
--
Timberwoof <me at timberwoof dot com> http://www.timberwoof.com
"When you post sewage, don't blame others for
emptying chamber pots in your direction." ‹Chris L. |
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| Skywise |
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 1:10 am |
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| Petra |
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 1:58 pm |
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On Jan 14, 2:27 pm, el...@no.spam () wrote:
Quote: In article <2724dfbe-5f89-4129-bb23-ab2758964...@s8g2000prg.googlegroups.com>,
Petra <petras...@hotmail.com> wrote:
I agree, it is precise.
Any number with a large quantify of digits is precise.
But is the location? During the past year I've seen epcienters
changed as often as three times and it makes one wonder
sometimes, how close is close?
They do publish an indication of the location quality and additional
processing changes that quality. Why does that surprise you?
Hi Ellis,
It's not surprising, but when you're the predictor those little
changes may mean a lot.
Petra |
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| Guest |
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 6:27 pm |
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In article <2724dfbe-5f89-4129-bb23-ab2758964af8@s8g2000prg.googlegroups.com>,
Petra <petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: I agree, it is precise.
Any number with a large quantify of digits is precise.
Quote: But is the location? During the past year I've seen epcienters
changed as often as three times and it makes one wonder
sometimes, how close is close?
They do publish an indication of the location quality and additional
processing changes that quality. Why does that surprise you? |
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| Petra |
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 7:33 pm |
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On Jan 14, 8:54 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Quote: Petra <petras...@hotmail.com> wrote in news:178e2967-fc91-4414-929f-
3fec67d59...@u10g2000prn.googlegroups.com:
It's not surprising, but when you're the predictor those little
changes may mean a lot.
"Hey!! An earthquake of unknown magnitude just occured sometime
today somewhere on earth. That gives me a hit!!!"
...magnitude, location, and time are determined...
...it's now not quite a 'hit'....
"Why do they keep changing the magnitude and location? It must
be some conspiracy!! I predicted that quake and they don't want
the world to know it!!"
[that is an extreme example, but gives the point]
Brian
--http://www.skywise711.com- Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ:http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions":http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?
Hi Brian,
You lost me on that one.... what point?
My point is that at the time an earthquake rolls in it may match a
prediction perfectly in date, magnitude and time, but after several
changes it might not make it on anything except the date, so these
changes over time do upset the applecart and could cost a lot
sometimes.
Petra |
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| Skywise |
Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 12:54 am |
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Petra <petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote in news:178e2967-fc91-4414-929f-
3fec67d5925f@u10g2000prn.googlegroups.com:
Quote: It's not surprising, but when you're the predictor those little
changes may mean a lot.
"Hey!! An earthquake of unknown magnitude just occured sometime
today somewhere on earth. That gives me a hit!!!"
....magnitude, location, and time are determined...
....it's now not quite a 'hit'....
"Why do they keep changing the magnitude and location? It must
be some conspiracy!! I predicted that quake and they don't want
the world to know it!!"
[that is an extreme example, but gives the point]
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes? |
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| Skywise |
Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 1:32 am |
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| Guest |
Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 3:58 am |
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In article <178e2967-fc91-4414-929f-3fec67d5925f@u10g2000prn.googlegroups.com>,
Petra <petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: It's not surprising, but when you're the predictor those little
changes may mean a lot.
Oh, please. |
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| Guest |
Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 3:59 am |
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In article <3e2c72cc-5083-4739-a41f-424de3fa7f34@s19g2000prg.googlegroups.com>,
Petra <petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: You lost me on that one.... what point?
The point is you being a kook, Petra. This newsgroup seems
to attract them. |
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| Jo Schaper |
Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 11:12 am |
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Charles wrote:
Quote: Poking around on Google Earth I find the point of an earthquake
Date: 1973/8/20
Magnitude: 3.89999999999999991118
that's pretty precise, it seems to me.
Look at the date. That's probably a computer glitch, or someone enamored
of their new pocket calculator.
Pocket calculators, in case you didn't know, can generate up to 14
places east of the decimal point, but because of the binary to decimal
conversion error, nothing beyond 5 or 6 means anything but a numerical
artifact. I bet in 1973, seismic computers were such a new tool, people
were still trusting the box. Precision does not equal accuracy.
The other day, my husband did a calculation from a digital people
counter which 'proved' that 20/4 = 4.9999999998. This small error,
incremented over tens of thousands of people, was resulting in an errant
count. He even did the math for the people with the people counter, and
they wanted to believe the box over their own knowledge of 4th grade
division. |
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| Petra |
Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 12:52 pm |
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On Jan 14, 11:59 pm, el...@no.spam () wrote:
Quote: In article <3e2c72cc-5083-4739-a41f-424de3fa7...@s19g2000prg.googlegroups.com>,
Petra <petras...@hotmail.com> wrote:
You lost me on that one.... what point?
The point is you being a kook, Petra. This newsgroup seems
to attract them.
Ellis.........Ellis..... Ellis....
I guess you're right, all of us kooks have professional jobs, raise
children, do nine years of solid research and have authors waiting to
help us publish books about our little hobbies and I guess I should
feel really fortunate....
Don't Worry... Be Happy.... If my posts bother you, don't read them
and I promise, I'm not going to read anymore of yours. If you don't
know who I am by now, you'll find out all in good time.... LOL
Petra |
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| Guest |
Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 7:29 pm |
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In article <36741316-c4dd-4850-9210-3193089baddf@s8g2000prg.googlegroups.com>,
Petra <petrasrcf@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: I guess you're right, all of us kooks have professional jobs
You sell insurance, Petra. Then you come on here and make wild
claims about predictions but can't show us anything because it
is secret. Smells like a kook to me.
Do you need to go the astrology nonsense you posted a while back? |
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| JimLillie |
Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 11:42 pm |
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Jo Schaper wrote:
Quote: Charles wrote:
Poking around on Google Earth I find the point of an earthquake
Date: 1973/8/20 Magnitude: 3.89999999999999991118
that's pretty precise, it seems to me.
Look at the date. That's probably a computer glitch, or someone enamored
of their new pocket calculator.
Pocket calculators, in case you didn't know, can generate up to 14
places east of the decimal point, but because of the binary to decimal
conversion error, nothing beyond 5 or 6 means anything but a numerical
artifact. I bet in 1973, seismic computers were such a new tool, people
were still trusting the box. Precision does not equal accuracy.
The other day, my husband did a calculation from a digital people
counter which 'proved' that 20/4 = 4.9999999998. This small error,
incremented over tens of thousands of people, was resulting in an errant
count. He even did the math for the people with the people counter, and
they wanted to believe the box over their own knowledge of 4th grade
division.
About 25 years ago digital displays matured and suddenly had a major
price drop. We engineers were being offered instruments with impressive
numbers of digits. An EE journal got 6+ voltmeters of the same
make/model. Hooked up a common bus voltage and ground, then
photographed the displays.
All the same, right? Haa! 3 digits the same, #4 close, 5, 6, 7, & 8
garbage. Precision is NOT accuracy.
Jim Lillie |
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