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Science Forum Index » Geology - Earthquakes Forum » 8.2 Southern Indonesia
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| Skywise |
 Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 10:28 am |
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| rick++ |
| Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 10:35 am |
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Fourth M8+ in 2007, tying the record with four months to go.
On average there is one per year. |
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| rick++ |
| Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 12:37 pm |
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Any buzz on "improved tsunami warning systems" after this quake?
There was lots of talk after the Andeman quake, but I dont how much
is operational. A number of people were working on
"first 30 second" magnitude estimation algorithms. They arent as
accurate,
a Mw inversion, but you dont have to wait 75 minutes for enough data.
This quake is also "just-in-time" for the fall AGU meeting,
the worlds largest seismology meeting of the year.
Abstract due date has passed, but they create special
sessions if something geophysically significant happens. |
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| Belba Grubb |
| Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 12:08 am |
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The people of western Indonesia must think the world has come to an
end - what a wild ride they are having. After these large
aftershocks, World Vision reports that authorities are saying scores
are injured and the toll could rise, but that the phone lines are
intact and therefore the authorities should have a pretty good idea of
the impact right now. I haven't read anything one way or the other
about further tsunamis.
Barb |
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| Belba Grubb |
| Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 1:19 am |
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This is probably a very dumb question, but with 20 aftershocks (as of
right now), including two in the 7 range and a 6.0, I wonder if this
is having or can be expected to have any effect on local volcanism.
Barb
----------
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is
only a hole in Arizona. Not all holes, or games, are created equal."
-- George Will
"The region is of course, altogether valueless. It can be approached
only from the South, and after entering it there is nothing to do but
leave. Ours has been the first, and will doubtless be the last, party
of whites to visit this profitless locality. It seems intended by
nature that the Colorado river, along with the greater portion of its
lonely and majestic way, shall be forever unvisited and undisturbed."
-- Lt. Joseph Christmas Ives, quoted at http://www.worldtalks.co.uk/quotes.htm |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 2:30 am |
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On Sep 13, 6:19 am, Belba Grubb <trungsister...@yahoo.com> wrote:
Quote: This is probably a very dumb question, but with 20 aftershocks (as of
right now), including two in the 7 range and a 6.0, I wonder if this
is having or can be expected to have any effect on local volcanism.
Strap me but I was thinking I could hear a fat lady singing:
7.1 2007/09/13 03:35 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.5 2007/09/13 02:51 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.9 2007/09/13 02:30 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.0 2007/09/13 01:55 Southern Sumatra Indonesia
5.2 2007/09/13 01:49 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.2 2007/09/13 01:38 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.8 2007/09/13 01:26 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
7.8 2007/09/12 23:49 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
Weather forecasts over here are getting in tune with the music of the
spheres and all that, what?
Mists on them though, interestingly enough. |
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| George |
| Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 3:45 am |
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"Weatherlawyer" <Weatherlawyer@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1189668636.253331.137650@22g2000hsm.googlegroups.com...
Quote: On Sep 13, 6:19 am, Belba Grubb <trungsister...@yahoo.com> wrote:
This is probably a very dumb question, but with 20 aftershocks (as of
right now), including two in the 7 range and a 6.0, I wonder if this
is having or can be expected to have any effect on local volcanism.
Yes, it is possible for earthquakes to disturb magma chambers in the region
and cause eruptions. Whether or not this event will, who knows? We'll have
to wait and see.
Quote: Strap me but I was thinking I could hear a fat lady singing:
7.1 2007/09/13 03:35 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.5 2007/09/13 02:51 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.9 2007/09/13 02:30 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.0 2007/09/13 01:55 Southern Sumatra Indonesia
5.2 2007/09/13 01:49 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.2 2007/09/13 01:38 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.8 2007/09/13 01:26 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
7.8 2007/09/12 23:49 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
Weather forecasts over here are getting in tune with the music of the
spheres and all that, what?
Mists on them though, interestingly enough.
I posted here 2004 when the 9.4 quake struck that the portion of the
megathrust southeast of that quake would likely go in the next few years
since the stress has been shifted to the southeast. It was a likely bet
since this megathrust is one of the most active on the planet, and one of
the most violent. Kerry Sieh, in fact, predicted it would likely break
before the northern stretch did, and so this one has been, for all intents
and purposes, overdue. I also don't think this is over by a long shot. I
think more are coming in the next few months to years. The 2004 quake
destabilized much of the megathrust, and it obviously has yet to stabilize
along its entire length. There may be some more aftershocks to the
northwest, but I expect the segment closer to Jakarta to break anytime.
But, that's just a hunch, folks. I could be wrong. I certainly have
before.
George |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 6:30 am |
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On Sep 13, 8:45 am, "George" <geo...@yourservice.com> wrote:
Quote: "Weatherlawyer" <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1189668636.253331.137650@22g2000hsm.googlegroups.com...
On Sep 13, 6:19 am, Belba Grubb <trungsister...@yahoo.com> wrote:
This is probably a very dumb question, but with 20 aftershocks (as of
right now), including two in the 7 range and a 6.0, I wonder if this
is having or can be expected to have any effect on local volcanism.
Yes, it is possible for earthquakes to disturb magma chambers in the region
and cause eruptions. Whether or not this event will, who knows? We'll have
to wait and see.
Strap me but I was thinking I could hear a fat lady singing:
7.1 2007/09/13 03:35 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.5 2007/09/13 02:51 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.9 2007/09/13 02:30 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.0 2007/09/13 01:55 Southern Sumatra Indonesia
5.2 2007/09/13 01:49 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.2 2007/09/13 01:38 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.8 2007/09/13 01:26 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
7.8 2007/09/12 23:49 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
Weather forecasts over here are getting in tune with the music of the
spheres and all that, what?
Mists on them though, interestingly enough.
I posted here 2004 when the 9.4 quake struck that the portion of the
megathrust southeast of that quake would likely go in the next few years
since the stress has been shifted to the southeast. It was a likely bet
since this megathrust is one of the most active on the planet, and one of
the most violent. Kerry Sieh, in fact, predicted it would likely break
before the northern stretch did, and so this one has been, for all intents
and purposes, overdue. I also don't think this is over by a long shot. I
think more are coming in the next few months to years. The 2004 quake
destabilized much of the megathrust, and it obviously has yet to stabilize
along its entire length. There may be some more aftershocks to the
northwest, but I expect the segment closer to Jakarta to break anytime.
But, that's just a hunch, folks. I could be wrong. I certainly have
before.
Be kinder to yourself. It's not often a confirmed nay sayer can
forecast an earthquake. Unless he gives Indonesia through an open
window of course.
You did say Indonesia did you not?
Or was it New Guinea? |
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| George |
| Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 7:31 am |
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"Weatherlawyer" <Weatherlawyer@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1189683051.369563.119810@19g2000hsx.googlegroups.com...
Quote: On Sep 13, 8:45 am, "George" <geo...@yourservice.com> wrote:
"Weatherlawyer" <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1189668636.253331.137650@22g2000hsm.googlegroups.com...
On Sep 13, 6:19 am, Belba Grubb <trungsister...@yahoo.com> wrote:
This is probably a very dumb question, but with 20 aftershocks (as of
right now), including two in the 7 range and a 6.0, I wonder if this
is having or can be expected to have any effect on local volcanism.
Yes, it is possible for earthquakes to disturb magma chambers in the
region
and cause eruptions. Whether or not this event will, who knows? We'll
have
to wait and see.
Strap me but I was thinking I could hear a fat lady singing:
7.1 2007/09/13 03:35 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.5 2007/09/13 02:51 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.9 2007/09/13 02:30 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.0 2007/09/13 01:55 Southern Sumatra Indonesia
5.2 2007/09/13 01:49 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.2 2007/09/13 01:38 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.8 2007/09/13 01:26 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
7.8 2007/09/12 23:49 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
Weather forecasts over here are getting in tune with the music of the
spheres and all that, what?
Mists on them though, interestingly enough.
I posted here 2004 when the 9.4 quake struck that the portion of the
megathrust southeast of that quake would likely go in the next few years
since the stress has been shifted to the southeast. It was a likely bet
since this megathrust is one of the most active on the planet, and one
of
the most violent. Kerry Sieh, in fact, predicted it would likely break
before the northern stretch did, and so this one has been, for all
intents
and purposes, overdue. I also don't think this is over by a long shot.
I
think more are coming in the next few months to years. The 2004 quake
destabilized much of the megathrust, and it obviously has yet to
stabilize
along its entire length. There may be some more aftershocks to the
northwest, but I expect the segment closer to Jakarta to break anytime.
But, that's just a hunch, folks. I could be wrong. I certainly have
before.
Be kinder to yourself. It's not often a confirmed nay sayer can
forecast an earthquake. Unless he gives Indonesia through an open
window of course.
You did say Indonesia did you not?
Or was it New Guinea?
Prior to the 2004 great earthquake, I predicted the 7.5 quake that struck
Indonesia earlier that year, and won the Earthquake contest on this
newsgroup. Petra remembers, don't you, Petra?
George |
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| George |
| Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 7:31 am |
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Guest
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"Weatherlawyer" <Weatherlawyer@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1189683051.369563.119810@19g2000hsx.googlegroups.com...
Quote: On Sep 13, 8:45 am, "George" <geo...@yourservice.com> wrote:
"Weatherlawyer" <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1189668636.253331.137650@22g2000hsm.googlegroups.com...
On Sep 13, 6:19 am, Belba Grubb <trungsister...@yahoo.com> wrote:
This is probably a very dumb question, but with 20 aftershocks (as of
right now), including two in the 7 range and a 6.0, I wonder if this
is having or can be expected to have any effect on local volcanism.
Yes, it is possible for earthquakes to disturb magma chambers in the
region
and cause eruptions. Whether or not this event will, who knows? We'll
have
to wait and see.
Strap me but I was thinking I could hear a fat lady singing:
7.1 2007/09/13 03:35 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.5 2007/09/13 02:51 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.9 2007/09/13 02:30 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.0 2007/09/13 01:55 Southern Sumatra Indonesia
5.2 2007/09/13 01:49 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.2 2007/09/13 01:38 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.8 2007/09/13 01:26 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
7.8 2007/09/12 23:49 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
Weather forecasts over here are getting in tune with the music of the
spheres and all that, what?
Mists on them though, interestingly enough.
I posted here 2004 when the 9.4 quake struck that the portion of the
megathrust southeast of that quake would likely go in the next few years
since the stress has been shifted to the southeast. It was a likely bet
since this megathrust is one of the most active on the planet, and one
of
the most violent. Kerry Sieh, in fact, predicted it would likely break
before the northern stretch did, and so this one has been, for all
intents
and purposes, overdue. I also don't think this is over by a long shot.
I
think more are coming in the next few months to years. The 2004 quake
destabilized much of the megathrust, and it obviously has yet to
stabilize
along its entire length. There may be some more aftershocks to the
northwest, but I expect the segment closer to Jakarta to break anytime.
But, that's just a hunch, folks. I could be wrong. I certainly have
before.
Be kinder to yourself. It's not often a confirmed nay sayer can
forecast an earthquake. Unless he gives Indonesia through an open
window of course.
You did say Indonesia did you not?
Or was it New Guinea?
Do note that they've now had a fourth large Earthquake just this morning.
George |
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| rick++ |
| Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 10:06 am |
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AP article said there were better wranings this quake.
Even in Bengladesh which is low-lying. |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 12:09 pm |
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On Sep 14, 3:06 pm, rick++ <rick...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: AP article said there were better wranings this quake.
Even in Bengladesh which is low-lying.
I loke et wehn E am no tha wust splleller. |
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| Belba Grubb |
| Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 8:35 pm |
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Guest
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On Sep 13, 3:45 am, "George" <geo...@yourservice.com> wrote:
Quote: Yes, it is possible for earthquakes to disturb magma chambers in the region
and cause eruptions. Whether or not this event will, who knows? We'll have
to wait and see.
Yes; it could cause eruptions or prevent them. Some volcanoes might
even go dormant. Most effects would probably show up short-term on
any local geothermal activities. It's still ongoing. Amazing.
Quote: I posted here 2004 when the 9.4 quake struck that the portion of the
megathrust southeast of that quake would likely go in the next few years
since the stress has been shifted to the southeast. It was a likely bet
since this megathrust is one of the most active on the planet, and one of
the most violent. Kerry Sieh, in fact, predicted it would likely break
before the northern stretch did, and so this one has been, for all intents
and purposes, overdue. I also don't think this is over by a long shot. I
think more are coming in the next few months to years. The 2004 quake
destabilized much of the megathrust, and it obviously has yet to stabilize
along its entire length. There may be some more aftershocks to the
northwest, but I expect the segment closer to Jakarta to break anytime.
But, that's just a hunch, folks. I could be wrong. I certainly have
before.
It certainly makes sense to me. There was some imperfect
stabilization, it would seem, between 2004 and now, but this most
recently 8.4 seems to have really destabilized things. What is it
going to take to reestablish stability, one wonders.
Also, since you're much more familiar with this area, what role might
the 5.1 Sunda Strait event about 19 hours before the 8.4 in Southern
Sumatra have played?
Barb
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Men of science have quarreled with the Bible because it is not based
upon the true astronomical system, but it is certainly open to the
orthodox to say that if it had been it would never have convinced
anybody.
-- G. K. Chesterton
The Bible shows the way to go to heaven, not the way the heavens go.
-- Galileo |
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| Weatherlawyer |
| Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 8:46 pm |
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On Sep 15, 1:35 am, Belba Grubb <trungsister...@yahoo.com> wrote:
Quote:
The Bible shows the way to go to heaven, not the way the heavens go.
-- Galileo
Galileo would have been delighted to learn of his ignorance, I
imagine.
I wonder if he could have ever grasped fractals though. |
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| George |
| Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2007 6:18 pm |
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Guest
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"Belba Grubb" <trungsisterfan@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:1189820149.994599.64910@y42g2000hsy.googlegroups.com...
Quote: On Sep 13, 3:45 am, "George" <geo...@yourservice.com> wrote:
Yes, it is possible for earthquakes to disturb magma chambers in the
region
and cause eruptions. Whether or not this event will, who knows? We'll
have
to wait and see.
Yes; it could cause eruptions or prevent them. Some volcanoes might
even go dormant. Most effects would probably show up short-term on
any local geothermal activities. It's still ongoing. Amazing.
I posted here 2004 when the 9.4 quake struck that the portion of the
megathrust southeast of that quake would likely go in the next few years
since the stress has been shifted to the southeast. It was a likely bet
since this megathrust is one of the most active on the planet, and one
of
the most violent. Kerry Sieh, in fact, predicted it would likely break
before the northern stretch did, and so this one has been, for all
intents
and purposes, overdue. I also don't think this is over by a long shot.
I
think more are coming in the next few months to years. The 2004 quake
destabilized much of the megathrust, and it obviously has yet to
stabilize
along its entire length. There may be some more aftershocks to the
northwest, but I expect the segment closer to Jakarta to break anytime.
But, that's just a hunch, folks. I could be wrong. I certainly have
before.
It certainly makes sense to me. There was some imperfect
stabilization, it would seem, between 2004 and now, but this most
recently 8.4 seems to have really destabilized things. What is it
going to take to reestablish stability, one wonders.
Also, since you're much more familiar with this area, what role might
the 5.1 Sunda Strait event about 19 hours before the 8.4 in Southern
Sumatra have played?
Barb
----------
Men of science have quarreled with the Bible because it is not based
upon the true astronomical system, but it is certainly open to the
orthodox to say that if it had been it would never have convinced
anybody.
-- G. K. Chesterton
The Bible shows the way to go to heaven, not the way the heavens go.
-- Galileo
I saw that quake appear on the NEIC site before the 8.4 occurred. At the
risk of being shot down like a quail, I'd say, and this is just my own
opinion, that it probably had little effect.
George |
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