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Science Forum Index » Geology - Earthquakes Forum » My Latest Seismic Forecast Update
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| Guest |
 Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2007 10:53 am |
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My Current Seismic Forecast Charts
==================================
California-Nevada:
http://www.angelfire.com/planet/threee/earthquakes/ca.bmp
U.S. West Coast Region (Oregon Center):
http://www.angelfire.com/planet/threee/earthquakes/oregon.bmp
Japan:
http://www.angelfire.com/planet/threee/earthquakes/japan.bmp
The diagonal (purple) lines point to areas of stress release. If they
form "stress pockets" (the roundish area below plot "knees") then the
stress released will increase.
Release Potential Increases as:
* THE MORE ORGANIZED THE STRESS POCKET FORMS
* THE MORE ORGANIZED THE DIAGONAL BUILDS (W/MULTIPLE KNEES)
* THE DEEPER THE DIAGONAL ANGLE IS
* THE LONGER THE DIAGONAL ANGLE GROWS
During DOWN cycles, the opposite occurs. Here, these lines point to
areas of stress buildup, not release. The same principle tends to
apply equally faithful with stocks, or any other random data. These
lines may not be included in current chart due to the lack of time.
Good luck,
Steve |
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| rick++ |
| Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2007 11:07 am |
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Guest
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So those little square boxes are places where earthquakes occurred in
your prediction area? 70 successes! Amazing! |
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| Guest |
| Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2007 11:29 am |
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On Feb 15, 7:07 am, "rick++" <rick...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Quote: So those little square boxes are places where earthquakes occurred in
your prediction area? 70 successes! Amazing!
70?
70%?
I'm no where near 70% yet, but that's a lofty goal. I'm at about 30%
currently. If I were to babysit charts, say once an hour, rather than
once a day as I do now, I would catch key developments much faster and
do much better.
Steve |
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| Guest |
| Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2007 11:36 am |
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I'm currently building a program whereas I make block forecasts every
12 hours. This is much more desirable. I divide the activity into five
magnitude zones. Then I forecast which of these five magnitude zones
the largest quake in the next 12 hour block will be. I just started
yesterday and I'm nearly done.
This forecast style is more demanding of my time, but results in a
much more productive, useful, and easy to understand forecast.
I hope to be done today.
Good luck,
Steve |
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| Skywise |
| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 1:46 am |
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Guest
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effacers@hotmail.com wrote in news:1171553365.399266.274420
@p10g2000cwp.googlegroups.com:
Quote: On Feb 15, 7:07 am, "rick++" <rick...@hotmail.com> wrote:
So those little square boxes are places where earthquakes occurred in
your prediction area? 70 successes! Amazing!
70?
70%?
I'm no where near 70% yet, but that's a lofty goal. I'm at about 30%
currently.
So you claim a 30% success rate? hmmmmm
Last I checked my own stats, I was hitting 92% of qualifying
quakes with 68% of my predictions.
No wonder you backed out fo your own challenge when I stood
up to the plate.
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes? |
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| Der Coach |
| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 11:29 am |
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Guest
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<effacers@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1171553365.399266.274420@p10g2000cwp.googlegroups.com...
Quote: On Feb 15, 7:07 am, "rick++" <rick...@hotmail.com> wrote:
So those little square boxes are places where earthquakes occurred in
your prediction area? 70 successes! Amazing!
70?
70%?
I'm no where near 70% yet, but that's a lofty goal. I'm at about 30%
currently. If I were to babysit charts, say once an hour, rather than
once a day as I do now, I would catch key developments much faster and
do much better.
Steve
And if you dated maybe 7% per year, you might actually find something
worthwhile to do with your life....
You act as if everything you are saying has never been done before.... Guess
what skippy?
It has... Don't worry, I'm sure they're still holding the bookmobile for
you....
RUN and you might still catch it!
and, CHEERS!
Der Coach
CICFL
PPoE
Infidel #2112 |
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| Guest |
| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 7:30 pm |
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On Feb 15, 10:20 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Lyin' Bryin wrote:
Quote: So you claim a 30% success rate? hmmmmm
Last I checked my own stats, I was hitting 92% of qualifying
quakes with 68% of my predictions.
No wonder you backed out fo your own challenge when I stood
up to the plate.
Brian
Last time I checked you had a 0% success rate.
No predictions posted here = 0%.
Why are you too scared to post any of your work here?
Answer: 0% success rate.
Steve |
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| Guest |
| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 7:36 pm |
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On Feb 16, 7:29 am, "Der Coach" <derco...@FanaticLegions.mil> wrote:
Troll #2 Wrote:
Quote: And if you dated maybe 7% per year, you might actually find something
worthwhile to do with your life....
And if anyone could understand this, maybe the other trolls would
respond.
Quote:
You act as if everything you are saying has never been done before....
Act?
Quote: Guess
what skippy?
It has... Don't worry, I'm sure they're still holding the bookmobile for
you....
RUN and you might still catch it!
and, CHEERS!
Der Coach
CICFL
PPoE
Infidel #2112
Don't be so gullible, I've yet to see anyone come 1/10 as close as
I've been over the past decade.
Cite. Uncited rant is meaningless at best. It also lowers your
credibility .. if that's possible.
Steve |
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| Guest |
| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 7:47 pm |
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I've completed my second "TIME BLOCK" forecast program that forecasts
the LARGEST magnitude over then next 12-hours. No doubt I will improve
the filters and tweak the program or completely overhaul it over time,
but I plan to begin posting 12-hr block forecasts at least once daily
on average very soon nevertheless. So the first dozen or so forecasts
may generate low accuracy, but I will adjust things with each failed
attempt.
I'll try to make my first forecast today and post it below in this
thread.
Stay tuned.
Good luck,
Steve |
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| Guest |
| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 8:16 pm |
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12-HOUR BLOCK EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS MADE HERE!
============================================
Boyakasha! Check this.
Today we's talking a completelyh new forecast style. It's much better
than the last for a few reasons: The last style was a MULTIPLE bar
projection. This style is a NEXT bar projection. The second benefit is
that it also projects the MAGNITUDE to within 10% in some cases!!
Another benefit (especially for all the (proven) mentally-impaired
local trolls) it is very easy to understand and there are no charts to
trip over.
I've categorized the entire seismic data into FOUR (4) magnitude zones
(slots). I've balanced them so that each slot contains the same number
of quakes; therefore, the odds are the same that future quakes will
fall into each slot evenly. Simple as pie.
Here's an example:
FORECAST: SLOT 0
SLOT 0: 0
SLOT 1: 2
SLOT 2: 2.4
SLOT 3: 2.8+
Here I'm forecasting that THE LARGEST QUAKE that will occur over the
following twelve hours from the time of this post will be inside of
zone 0 (0 to 1.99 in magnitude). Simple as pie.
The odds are identical with each forecast, 75% agin, 25% fer so if I
can achieve a 50% accuracy, I'm well above the coin-toss bell curve of
25%. Even if I'm only 30% accurate, that's still ABOVE average.
Good luck,
Steve |
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| Guest |
| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 8:50 pm |
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12-HOUR BLOCK EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS MADE HERE!
============================================
Booyakasha! Check this.
Today we's talking a completely new forecast style. It's much better
than the last for a few reasons: The last style was a MULTIPLE bar
projection. This style is a NEXT bar projection. The second benefit is
that it also projects the MAGNITUDE to within 10% in some cases!!
Another benefit (especially for all the (proven) mentally-impaired
local trolls) it is very easy to understand and there are no charts to
trip over.
I've categorized the entire seismic data into FOUR (4) magnitude zones
(slots). I've balanced them so that each slot contains the same number
of quakes; therefore, the odds are the same that future quakes will
fall into each slot evenly. Simple as pie.
Here's an example:
FORECAST: SLOT 0
MAG ZONE: MAG:
------------------
SLOT 0: 0
SLOT 1: 2
SLOT 2: 2.4
SLOT 3: 2.8+
Here I'm forecasting that THE LARGEST QUAKE that will occur over the
following twelve hours from the time of this post will be inside of
zone 0 (0 to 1.99 in magnitude). Simple as pie.
The odds are identical with each forecast, 75% agin, 25% fer so if I
can achieve a 50% accuracy, I'm well above the coin-toss bell curve of
25%. Even if I'm only 30% accurate, that's still ABOVE average.
Oh yeah, this is an important point for those still confused by
magnitude. Size don't matter wrt the forecast results. Zone 0 accurate
forecasts are equally as impressive as zone 3 accurate forecasts. You
should be equally impressed if the largest quake over the next 12
hours registers as a mag 1.0 and I've forecasted zone 0 as a 5.0 quake
occurs and I've forecasted zone 3. So it makes zero difference what
zone I pick.
Safe!
Steve |
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| Guest |
| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 9:35 pm |
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Ok, the next several forecasts will be tests of my new program. There
will likely be bugs. So whether I'm right or wrong doesn't matter if
there are serious bugs. If I forecast above average over the next
several forecasts, suggests the program is working right. If wrong,
there's likely a serious bug.
Looks like a Zone 0 or Zone 3 forecast for the next 12 hours from the
time stamp of this post.
MAG ZONE: MAG:
------------------
SLOT 0: 0
SLOT 1: 2
SLOT 2: 2.4
SLOT 3: 2.8+
Good luck,
Steve |
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| Guest |
| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 9:47 pm |
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| Der Coach |
| Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 1:27 am |
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<effacers@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1171668966.143757.280770@q2g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
Quote: On Feb 16, 7:29 am, "Der Coach" <derco...@FanaticLegions.mil> wrote:
Troll #2 Wrote:
And if you dated maybe 7% per year, you might actually find something
worthwhile to do with your life....
And if anyone could understand this, maybe the other trolls would
respond.
You act as if everything you are saying has never been done before....
Act?
Guess
what skippy?
It has... Don't worry, I'm sure they're still holding the bookmobile for
you....
RUN and you might still catch it!
and, CHEERS!
Der Coach
CICFL
PPoE
Infidel #2112
Don't be so gullible, I've yet to see anyone come 1/10 as close as
I've been over the past decade.
Cite. Uncited rant is meaningless at best. It also lowers your
credibility .. if that's possible.
Steve
YAWN....
I can't belive this.
It must be a celestial kook cycle....
Credibility yarns.... "Cheese-sauce-rice".
I have more credibility in this group than your enire family tree.
Then again, your family tree looks more like a spike doesn't it.
You need to go mow the lawn.
Cheers!
Der Coach
CICFL
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| Der Coach |
| Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 1:37 am |
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