On 2007-01-20 03:37:03 -0800, "Jack Linthicum"
jacklinthicum@earthlink.net> said:


Ken S. Tucker wrote:
Jack Linthicum wrote:

[...]


Could it be possible China remotely detonated
that old satellite? Only a few ounzes of TNT
would be necessary. Haven't quite read of a
precise radar confirmation of an interception.
A direct hit is an awesome achievement, I
doubt China can do it.
Ken

We apparently tracked the launch, thank someone for that.

But was the US intelligence apparatus alerted with sufficient lead time
to collect a real-time radar track on the ASAT launch and supposed KKV
track conjunction with the satellite? What about telemetry intercepts
to/from the target satellite? My impression, from the information
publically disclosed, is the answer to all these questions is no. We
apparently have enough tracking data from routine orbital monitoring to
make a before-and-after conclusion of a probable ASAT intercept, but I
doubt we have the telemetry intercepts to rule out the scenario that
Ken posits.

It would be one heckuva high-cost, long lead-time feint
for the Chinese to have lofted a boobytrapped weather satellite for
eventual exploitation as an ersatz ASAT target, but it seems that we
didn't collect the ELINT to rule that out.

Bill Baker wrote:
On 2007-01-20 03:37:03 -0800, "Jack Linthicum"
jacklinthicum@earthlink.net> said:


Ken S. Tucker wrote:
Jack Linthicum wrote:

[...]


Could it be possible China remotely detonated
that old satellite? Only a few ounzes of TNT
would be necessary. Haven't quite read of a
precise radar confirmation of an interception.
A direct hit is an awesome achievement, I
doubt China can do it.
Ken

We apparently tracked the launch, thank someone for that.

But was the US intelligence apparatus alerted with sufficient lead time
to collect a real-time radar track on the ASAT launch and supposed KKV
track conjunction with the satellite? What about telemetry intercepts
to/from the target satellite? My impression, from the information
publically disclosed, is the answer to all these questions is no. We
apparently have enough tracking data from routine orbital monitoring to
make a before-and-after conclusion of a probable ASAT intercept, but I
doubt we have the telemetry intercepts to rule out the scenario that
Ken posits.

It would be one heckuva high-cost, long lead-time feint
for the Chinese to have lofted a boobytrapped weather satellite for
eventual exploitation as an ersatz ASAT target, but it seems that we
didn't collect the ELINT to rule that out.

Just a few more points,
It could be SOP to have a self-destruct on
a satellite, in case something goes astray,
a few ounces of TNT is likely plenty.

The Chinese have not yet made a statement
I know of. Typically they'd be inclined to know
what we'd be able to gather, about the test to
learn about our intel.

The so-called "debris field" analysis should
give a really good idea of how the satellite
was fractured. Our intel on that might be
classified. From what I can gather, which
isn't much, the debris is characteristic of a
self-destruct, the signatures are quite different.

Given the current administations perchant to
report worst case scenarios from fuzzy intel,
could be it's an alligator under our bed.

So on the balance of probabilities I figure it's
a hoax as an ASAT kill.
What it does do though is prove China can blow
a BIG PITA FART.
Ken

Ken S. Tucker wrote:
Bill Baker wrote:
On 2007-01-20 03:37:03 -0800, "Jack Linthicum"
jacklinthicum@earthlink.net> said:


Ken S. Tucker wrote:
Jack Linthicum wrote:

[...]


Could it be possible China remotely detonated
that old satellite? Only a few ounzes of TNT
would be necessary. Haven't quite read of a
precise radar confirmation of an interception.
A direct hit is an awesome achievement, I
doubt China can do it.
Ken

We apparently tracked the launch, thank someone for that.

But was the US intelligence apparatus alerted with sufficient lead time
to collect a real-time radar track on the ASAT launch and supposed KKV
track conjunction with the satellite? What about telemetry intercepts
to/from the target satellite? My impression, from the information
publically disclosed, is the answer to all these questions is no. We
apparently have enough tracking data from routine orbital monitoring to
make a before-and-after conclusion of a probable ASAT intercept, but I
doubt we have the telemetry intercepts to rule out the scenario that
Ken posits.

It would be one heckuva high-cost, long lead-time feint
for the Chinese to have lofted a boobytrapped weather satellite for
eventual exploitation as an ersatz ASAT target, but it seems that we
didn't collect the ELINT to rule that out.

Just a few more points,
It could be SOP to have a self-destruct on
a satellite, in case something goes astray,
a few ounces of TNT is likely plenty.

The Chinese have not yet made a statement
I know of. Typically they'd be inclined to know
what we'd be able to gather, about the test to
learn about our intel.

The so-called "debris field" analysis should
give a really good idea of how the satellite
was fractured. Our intel on that might be
classified. From what I can gather, which
isn't much, the debris is characteristic of a
self-destruct, the signatures are quite different.

Given the current administations perchant to
report worst case scenarios from fuzzy intel,
could be it's an alligator under our bed.

So on the balance of probabilities I figure it's
a hoax as an ASAT kill.
What it does do though is prove China can blow
a BIG PITA FART.
Ken

Debris is in a slightly different orbit that what the FY-1C was in.

USAF radar reports on the Chinese FY-1C spacecraft have been posted
once or twice daily for years, but those reports jumped to about 4
times per day just before the alleged test.

The USAF radar reports then ceased Jan. 11, but then appeared for a day
showing "signs of orbital distress". The reports were then halted
again. The Air Force radars may well be busy cataloging many pieces of
debris, sources said.

Jack Linthicum wrote:
Ken S. Tucker wrote:
Bill Baker wrote:
On 2007-01-20 03:37:03 -0800, "Jack Linthicum"
jacklinthicum@earthlink.net> said:


Ken S. Tucker wrote:
Jack Linthicum wrote:

[...]


Could it be possible China remotely detonated
that old satellite? Only a few ounzes of TNT
would be necessary. Haven't quite read of a
precise radar confirmation of an interception.
A direct hit is an awesome achievement, I
doubt China can do it.
Ken

We apparently tracked the launch, thank someone for that.

But was the US intelligence apparatus alerted with sufficient lead time
to collect a real-time radar track on the ASAT launch and supposed KKV
track conjunction with the satellite? What about telemetry intercepts
to/from the target satellite? My impression, from the information
publically disclosed, is the answer to all these questions is no. We
apparently have enough tracking data from routine orbital monitoring to
make a before-and-after conclusion of a probable ASAT intercept, but I
doubt we have the telemetry intercepts to rule out the scenario that
Ken posits.

It would be one heckuva high-cost, long lead-time feint
for the Chinese to have lofted a boobytrapped weather satellite for
eventual exploitation as an ersatz ASAT target, but it seems that we
didn't collect the ELINT to rule that out.

Just a few more points,
It could be SOP to have a self-destruct on
a satellite, in case something goes astray,
a few ounces of TNT is likely plenty.

The Chinese have not yet made a statement
I know of. Typically they'd be inclined to know
what we'd be able to gather, about the test to
learn about our intel.

The so-called "debris field" analysis should
give a really good idea of how the satellite
was fractured. Our intel on that might be
classified. From what I can gather, which
isn't much, the debris is characteristic of a
self-destruct, the signatures are quite different.

Given the current administations perchant to
report worst case scenarios from fuzzy intel,
could be it's an alligator under our bed.

So on the balance of probabilities I figure it's
a hoax as an ASAT kill.
What it does do though is prove China can blow
a BIG PITA FART.
Ken

Debris is in a slightly different orbit that what the FY-1C was in.

I didn't see that in your ref's, but anyway a minor
explosive can produce a "slight" course changing
thrusting impulse.

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=spacespace&id=news/CHI01177.xml

USAF radar reports on the Chinese FY-1C spacecraft have been posted
once or twice daily for years, but those reports jumped to about 4
times per day just before the alleged test.

The USAF radar reports then ceased Jan. 11, but then appeared for a day
showing "signs of orbital distress". The reports were then halted
again. The Air Force radars may well be busy cataloging many pieces of
debris, sources said.

Thanks, if you happen on some new data please post.
Ken

Ken S. Tucker wrote:
Jack Linthicum wrote:
Ken S. Tucker wrote:
Bill Baker wrote:
On 2007-01-20 03:37:03 -0800, "Jack Linthicum"
jacklinthicum@earthlink.net> said:


Ken S. Tucker wrote:
Jack Linthicum wrote:

[...]


Could it be possible China remotely detonated
that old satellite? Only a few ounzes of TNT
would be necessary. Haven't quite read of a
precise radar confirmation of an interception.
A direct hit is an awesome achievement, I
doubt China can do it.
Ken

We apparently tracked the launch, thank someone for that.

But was the US intelligence apparatus alerted with sufficient lead time
to collect a real-time radar track on the ASAT launch and supposed KKV
track conjunction with the satellite? What about telemetry intercepts
to/from the target satellite? My impression, from the information
publically disclosed, is the answer to all these questions is no. We
apparently have enough tracking data from routine orbital monitoring to
make a before-and-after conclusion of a probable ASAT intercept, but I
doubt we have the telemetry intercepts to rule out the scenario that
Ken posits.

It would be one heckuva high-cost, long lead-time feint
for the Chinese to have lofted a boobytrapped weather satellite for
eventual exploitation as an ersatz ASAT target, but it seems that we
didn't collect the ELINT to rule that out.

Just a few more points,
It could be SOP to have a self-destruct on
a satellite, in case something goes astray,
a few ounces of TNT is likely plenty.

The Chinese have not yet made a statement
I know of. Typically they'd be inclined to know
what we'd be able to gather, about the test to
learn about our intel.

The so-called "debris field" analysis should
give a really good idea of how the satellite
was fractured. Our intel on that might be
classified. From what I can gather, which
isn't much, the debris is characteristic of a
self-destruct, the signatures are quite different.

Given the current administations perchant to
report worst case scenarios from fuzzy intel,
could be it's an alligator under our bed.

So on the balance of probabilities I figure it's
a hoax as an ASAT kill.
What it does do though is prove China can blow
a BIG PITA FART.
Ken

Debris is in a slightly different orbit that what the FY-1C was in.

I didn't see that in your ref's, but anyway a minor
explosive can produce a "slight" course changing
thrusting impulse.

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=spacespace&id=news/CHI01177.xml

USAF radar reports on the Chinese FY-1C spacecraft have been posted
once or twice daily for years, but those reports jumped to about 4
times per day just before the alleged test.

The USAF radar reports then ceased Jan. 11, but then appeared for a day
showing "signs of orbital distress". The reports were then halted
again. The Air Force radars may well be busy cataloging many pieces of
debris, sources said.

Thanks, if you happen on some new data please post.
Ken

Sorry, I must have used a different reference.

"Jeffrey Lewis, executive director of Harvard's Managing the Atom
Project was among the first to disclose the incident Jan. 17 in a blog
he writes for the Web site armscontrolwonk.com.

Lewis said in a Jan. 17 telephone interview that an analysis of orbital
data that is gathered by U.S. Air Force space surveillance systems and
posted online at Space-Track.org and Heavens-Above.com indicated that
the Chinese FY-1C weather satellite, which was launched in 1999,
disappeared from view about Jan. 11. In an interview Jan. 18, Lewis
said the satellite reappeared Jan. 12 in a different orbit and in
multiple pieces. Lewis said the orbital tracking data strongly
suggested the satellite was struck by a missile fired from the Chinese
mainland.

"This is an enormous mess they [the Chinese] have created. There is no
excuse for what is a reckless, stupid and self-defeating decision on
their part," Lewis said.

"Space-Track is showing about 40 pieces of debris, which is probably
just the tip of the iceberg," Lewis said. Space-Track.org is the U.S.
Air Force Web site that provides public satellite tracking data"
.http://politics.yahoo.com/s/space/whitehouseconfirmschineseantisatelliteweapontest

Debris is in a slightly different orbit that what the FY-1C was in.

I didn't see that in your ref's, but anyway a minor
explosive can produce a "slight" course changing
thrusting impulse.

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=spacespace&id=news/CHI01177.xml

USAF radar reports on the Chinese FY-1C spacecraft have been posted
once or twice daily for years, but those reports jumped to about 4
times per day just before the alleged test.

The USAF radar reports then ceased Jan. 11, but then appeared for a day
showing "signs of orbital distress". The reports were then halted
again. The Air Force radars may well be busy cataloging many pieces of
debris, sources said.

Thanks, if you happen on some new data please post.
Ken

Sorry, I must have used a different reference.

"Jeffrey Lewis, executive director of Harvard's Managing the Atom
Project was among the first to disclose the incident Jan. 17 in a blog
he writes for the Web site armscontrolwonk.com.

Lewis said in a Jan. 17 telephone interview that an analysis of orbital
data that is gathered by U.S. Air Force space surveillance systems and
posted online at Space-Track.org and Heavens-Above.com indicated that
the Chinese FY-1C weather satellite, which was launched in 1999,
disappeared from view about Jan. 11. In an interview Jan. 18, Lewis
said the satellite reappeared Jan. 12 in a different orbit and in
multiple pieces. Lewis said the orbital tracking data strongly
suggested the satellite was struck by a missile fired from the Chinese
mainland.

"This is an enormous mess they [the Chinese] have created. There is no
excuse for what is a reckless, stupid and self-defeating decision on
their part," Lewis said.

"Space-Track is showing about 40 pieces of debris, which is probably
just the tip of the iceberg," Lewis said. Space-Track.org is the U.S.
Air Force Web site that provides public satellite tracking data"
.http://politics.yahoo.com/s/space/whitehouseconfirmschineseantisatelliteweapontest

Thanks Jack,
I quote "classified briefings" from your link.
Anyway, let me maintain my tact, there is no way
Lewis could have determined that "different orbit"
from a preliminary radar echo from the debris field,
because the echo has no mass data.

Ken S. Tucker wrote:


Debris is in a slightly different orbit that what the FY-1C was in.

I didn't see that in your ref's, but anyway a minor
explosive can produce a "slight" course changing
thrusting impulse.

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=spacespace&id=news/CHI01177.xml

USAF radar reports on the Chinese FY-1C spacecraft have been posted
once or twice daily for years, but those reports jumped to about 4
times per day just before the alleged test.

The USAF radar reports then ceased Jan. 11, but then appeared for a day
showing "signs of orbital distress". The reports were then halted
again. The Air Force radars may well be busy cataloging many pieces of
debris, sources said.

Thanks, if you happen on some new data please post.
Ken

Sorry, I must have used a different reference.

"Jeffrey Lewis, executive director of Harvard's Managing the Atom
Project was among the first to disclose the incident Jan. 17 in a blog
he writes for the Web site armscontrolwonk.com.

Lewis said in a Jan. 17 telephone interview that an analysis of orbital
data that is gathered by U.S. Air Force space surveillance systems and
posted online at Space-Track.org and Heavens-Above.com indicated that
the Chinese FY-1C weather satellite, which was launched in 1999,
disappeared from view about Jan. 11. In an interview Jan. 18, Lewis
said the satellite reappeared Jan. 12 in a different orbit and in
multiple pieces. Lewis said the orbital tracking data strongly
suggested the satellite was struck by a missile fired from the Chinese
mainland.

"This is an enormous mess they [the Chinese] have created. There is no
excuse for what is a reckless, stupid and self-defeating decision on
their part," Lewis said.

"Space-Track is showing about 40 pieces of debris, which is probably
just the tip of the iceberg," Lewis said. Space-Track.org is the U.S.
Air Force Web site that provides public satellite tracking data"
.http://politics.yahoo.com/s/space/whitehouseconfirmschineseantisatelliteweapontest

Thanks Jack,
I quote "classified briefings" from your link.
Anyway, let me maintain my tact, there is no way
Lewis could have determined that "different orbit"
from a preliminary radar echo from the debris field,
because the echo has no mass data.


You were doing pretty well there, too bad.

I estimate something like
100 orbits of what remains, there are models for surmising the mass and
tracking to confirm it. I presume the next step is to take that back in
time to do guesstimates of the size and nature of the force used to do
in FY-1C, and from what angle it was used. One item said it was 4
degrees west of a known launch site, but if they used one of the mobile
MRBMs that is just conjecture.

"George" <george@yourservice.com> wrote in message
news:o0_rh.3444$To.1839@bigfe9...

"john" <@global.net> wrote in message
news:QjUrh.1094$j26.508@newsfe03.lga...
David E. Powell wrote:
Thought folks might want to know about this one.

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1188

Chinese Test Anti-Satellite Weapon
By Craig Covault, Aviation Week & Space Technology, Cape Canaveral
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
snip

Shouldn't be a problem since Globalist George and his Buds said we can do
business with them.
Americans are paying for the Communist Chinese advances in Military
capabilities.
I wonder if they will demand we turn over America to them to redeem all
those Dollars they hold or if they will demand the surrender of America
for the Communist cause?

Not to worry. Since they've tied their economy to our markets (yes, they
are still our markets), the first time they take out one of our
staellites, their economy will go belly up. And I don't think the Chinese
are that stupid.

With the cessation of trade between our two countries, Wal-Mart goes belly
up.

Jack Linthicum wrote:

We apparently tracked the launch, thank someone for that. A direct hit
by an MRBM warhead that splinters a 1600 pound satellite into large
significant pieces is hardly a direct hit.

As opposed to a "near miss"?
Really it's the old hitting a bullet with a bullet
problem that the most advanced US ABM
systems have problems with.

With the cessation of trade between our two countries, Wal-Mart goes
belly
up.

Actually Wal Mart just goes to another source

"Tankfixer" wrote in message:
With the cessation of trade between our two countries, Wal-Mart goes
belly
up.

Actually Wal Mart just goes to another source

I've heard that they do that every so often anyhow, once the villagers
start getting bolder and asking for raises and improved working conditions
and such. Once that happens, they just shut it down and relocate somewhere
else where the people are hungrier and less likely to complain about details
like this.

In article <hCVsh.16544$Ah.2635@read2.cgocable.net>, kenwho?@cogeco.ca
mumbled

"Tankfixer" wrote in message:
With the cessation of trade between our two countries, Wal-Mart
goes belly
up.

Actually Wal Mart just goes to another source

I've heard that they do that every so often anyhow, once the
villagers start getting bolder and asking for raises and improved
working conditions and such. Once that happens, they just shut it
down and relocate somewhere else where the people are hungrier and
less likely to complain about details like this.


Hate to burst your bubble but Walmart doesn't own the factories in
China.

With the cessation of trade between our two countries, Wal-Mart goes belly
up.
Good bye small town America :-/
HAH! More like hello small town america being Wal-Mart is driving all

George

In article <1169295867.757957.17720@m58g2000cwm.googlegroups.com>,
dynamics@vianet.on.ca mumbled
Jack Linthicum wrote:
We apparently tracked the launch, thank someone for that. A direct hit
by an MRBM warhead that splinters a 1600 pound satellite into large
significant pieces is hardly a direct hit.
As opposed to a "near miss"?
Really it's the old hitting a bullet with a bullet
problem that the most advanced US ABM
systems have problems with.

Or you put a reciever on the "test" missle and tune it to hone on a
transmission from the "target"

Thought folks might want to know about this one.

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1188

Chinese Test Anti-Satellite Weapon
By Craig Covault, Aviation Week & Space Technology, Cape Canaveral
Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Courtesy of Aviation Week & Space Technology and Aviationnow.com

U. S. intelligence agencies believe China performed a successful
anti-satellite (asat) weapons test at more than 500 mi. altitude Jan.
11 destroying an aging Chinese weather satellite target with a kinetic
kill vehicle launched on board a ballistic missile.